A lab leak theorist explains

The ideas and innovators shaping health care

May 16, 2024 View in browser   By Carmen Paun, Daniel Payne, Ruth Reader and Erin Schumaker PANDEMIC The FBI leans toward the lab leak theory. | Francis Chung/POLITICO A former FBI scientist shed light this week on why the law enforcement agency thinks an accident in a Chinese lab is the most likely cause of the Covid-19 pandemic. But the evidence is circumstantial. The FBI based its “moderate confidence” assessment on the lack of any proof of a virus transfer from an animal to a human in Wuhan, the Chinese city where Covid first emerged, and the long distance — over a thousand miles — from Wuhan to the caves where bats carrying coronaviruses live, said Jason Bannan, who retired from the FBI two years ago. “You try to put all these things together and come up with an assessment with some confidence,” he said at an event sponsored by the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank. Why it matters: It’s been more than a year since FBI Director Christopher Wray told Fox News that the law enforcement agency subscribed to the lab leak theory. Wray said the agency had felt that way "for quite some time," but he didn't explain why. The FBI’s opinion, along with that of the Department of Energy, which says it believes the lab leak theory with “low confidence,” lent credence to a hypothesis once derided as a conspiracy theory. The Department of Health and Human Services this week cut off funding for the EcoHealth Alliance, a U.S.-based research group that had collaborated with the Wuhan Institute of Virology on studies involving coronaviruses that are at the center of the lab leak theory. In testimony to the House Covid Subcommittee released today, former National Institutes of Health Director Francis Collins said the origin of the pandemic is unknown. And the NIH has proposed stricter controls over U.S. scientists working with foreign counterparts. Even so: Other agencies lean toward a natural origin for Covid, and some scientists on the Brookings panel agree with them. “It’s not correct to say that there’s no epidemiological evidence linking the origin of SARS-CoV-2 to a virus circulating in animal populations,” said Maciej Boni, a professor in the biology department at the Temple University College of Science and Technology in Philadelphia, referencing the scientific name for the coronavirus that causes Covid. “The genetic evidence is there. The market evidence is there. And also the geographic evidence is there, and it’s very strong,” he said, nodding to studies linking the pandemic’s origin to a market in Wuhan selling live wild animals that some scientists believe could have passed the virus to humans.   THE GOLD STANDARD OF HEALTHCARE POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. The Pro platform dives deeper into critical and quickly evolving sectors and industries, like healthcare, equipping policymakers and those who shape legislation and regulation with essential news and intelligence from the world’s best politics and policy journalists. Our newsroom is deeper, more experienced and better sourced than any other. Our healthcare reporting team—including Alice Miranda Ollstein, Megan Messerly and Robert King—is embedded with the market-moving legislative committees and agencies in Washington and across states, delivering unparalleled coverage of health policy and the healthcare industry. We bring subscribers inside the conversations that determine policy outcomes and the future of industries, providing insight that cannot be found anywhere else. Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY.     WELCOME TO FUTURE PULSE Brooklyn, N.Y. | Erin Schumaker/POLITICO This is where we explore the ideas and innovators shaping health care. The "exposome" — the way we live our lives and the environment we live in — can cause disease just as much as our genes. Harvard researchers are using AI to pinpoint its role more precisely. Share any thoughts, news, tips and feedback with Carmen Paun at cpaun@politico.com, Daniel Payne at dpayne@politico.com, Ruth Reader at rreader@politico.com or Erin Schumaker at eschumaker@politico.com. Send tips securely through SecureDrop, Signal, Telegram or WhatsApp.  WASHINGTON WATCH Scott's taken the lead on extending reimbursement of hospital-at-home programs. | Francis Chung/POLITICO Hospital-at-home programs, in which patients receive care in their house or apartment instead of at the hospital, have surged thanks to temporary government reimbursement Congress permitted during the pandemic. Lawmakers want to keep them going, even as fears of catching Covid-19 have abated. Sens. Tom Carper (D-Del.) and Tim Scott (R-S.C.) introduced Senate legislation this week that would extend the reimbursement policy — set to expire at the end of this year — through 2029. Carper and Scott hope their bill can find its way into a larger year-end health care package that extends and expands remote care. Legislation with a five-year extension by Reps. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.) and Mike Thompson (D-Calif.) is moving in the House as well. The Ways and Means Committee approved it unanimously last week. Big picture: Hospital executives see remote care as a significant part of their future — not only because of patient demand for it but also because they believe it would shore up their finances since the care is less expensive to provide.   LISTEN TO POLITICO'S ENERGY PODCAST: Check out our daily five-minute brief on the latest energy and environmental politics and policy news. Don't miss out on the must-know stories, candid insights, and analysis from POLITICO's energy team. Listen today.     DANGER ZONE Nurses fear the AI rollout is happening too quickly. | Damian Dovarganes/AP “We are opposed to this wild, wild west of unregulated and unchecked gadgetry parading as a panacea for all that ails health care.” National Nurses United President Deborah Berger The country’s largest union for registered nurses is stepping up its efforts to slow down the adoption of artificial intelligence in patient care. How so? The leaders of National Nurses United say AI tools are already making decisions that nurses used to make. The nurses say the technology is automating and devaluing their work, a concern shared by unions across many industries. “Nurses are not against technology — we embrace technology that enhances patient care and is used in conjunction with our own extensive education and clinical experience,” National Nurses United President Deborah Berger said on a recent call about the technology. The union is touting a survey it commissioned that found 60 percent of nurses don't trust their employers to implement AI safely and a "Nurses and Patients’ Bill of Rights" it drafted aimed at protecting nurses' role in care. The union is also pushing back in contract negotiations on AI. Why it matters: Lawmakers in Washington and state capitols are considering whether to impose guardrails around AI’s use in health care. The nurses are aligned with doctor groups, such as the American Medical Association, that argue AI should never make decisions without a human in the loop. The nurses want rules requiring health systems to prove AI tools are safe and effective before putting them into practice. Even so: Two of the country’s largest industries — technology and health care — could see significant financial gains from AI, providing a big incentive to adopt it.   Follow us on Twitter Carmen Paun @carmenpaun Daniel Payne @_daniel_payne Ruth Reader @RuthReader Erin Schumaker @erinlschumaker   Follow us

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