| | | | |  | | By Kyle Duggan and Zi-Ann Lum | | Presented by |  | | | Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Ottawa Playbook | Follow Politico Canada Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let’s get to it. In today's edition: → Didn’t see that global pandemic coming. What else could be next? A government report offers some thoughts for pause. → JUSTIN TRUDEAU and PIERRE POILIEVRE square off at dueling newsers. → WHO’S UP, WHO’S DOWN. → A programming note: Ottawa Playbook will not publish on Victoria Day. We'll be back in your inbox first thing Tuesday.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | |
PUBLIC SERVICE PROPHETS — Hopefully not.
A new, little-noticed government report blue-skied 35 “plausible events and circumstances” how the near future could go sideways — a kind of ‘Hey, did you consider…’ note for policy makers. The report, which lists and ranks catastrophic hypotheticals in several different ways, is entertaining and terrifying — with some of it not that far off from now. — Top “most likely” disruption: “People cannot tell what is true and what is not,” which it rated as both a high-impact risk and a highly likely one relative to others. “More powerful generative-AI tools, declining trust in traditional knowledge sources, and algorithms designed for emotional engagement rather than factual reporting could increase distrust and social fragmentation,” it warns. “More people may live in separate realities shaped by their personalized media and information ecosystems.” — Sounds familiar: That should come as no surprise to MPs on the Commons industry committee. One of the godfathers of AI, YOSHUA BENGIO, warned them earlier this year that AI is progressing at a pace humans are “not ready” for and the most immediate risk is AI flooding the internet with anti-democratic political disinformation. The timeline is the alarming part: the report flags that it could happen in three years. — For the uninitiated: The organization that produced it, Policy Horizons, is a little-known futurist think-tank housed in Employment and Social Development Canada under Employment Minister RANDY BOISSONNAULT. JENNIFER DITCHBURN once billed it in IRPP’s Policy Options as “The coolest government org you’ve never heard of.” EMILY HAWS noted in The Hill Times in 2018 the public servants at the think-tank were telecommuting by projecting their faces on iPad robots that drive around the office, years before remote work became a thing in a much-less-cool way. This report says it is based on input from some 500 stakeholders and experts, discussions with “policy makers” and uses survey results to rank the societal-upheaval risks by likelihood and impact. — Other lovely scenarios: Canada loses its biodiversity and ecosystems collapse. Emergency response becomes overwhelmed by extreme weather. Healthcare systems collapse. Artificial intelligence runs wild. Vital natural resources become scarce from population growth and climate change.Downward social mobility becomes the norm and wealth declines even more from one generation to the next, leaving people locked out of the housing market and struggling with “increasingly insecure” jobs. — Less likely: Home bioweapons go viral. Civil war erupts in the U.S. World war breaks out. — Close to the mark: Our LEX LUTHOR future where “billionaires run the world” and destabilize international relations. “More billionaires could leverage their control over strategic technologies and enormous wealth concentration to enter arenas formerly reserved for states, such as space exploration and diplomacy. As their power grows, billionaires could gain warfare capabilities and control over natural resources and strategic assets.” | | | | A message from Canadian Chamber of Commerce: Bill C-64, the Pharmacare Act, establishes the foundational principles for the initial phase of a national universal pharmacare program in Canada. The 2024 federal budget allocates $1.5 billion over five years, starting in 2024-25, to launch the National Pharmacare Plan. However, a single-payer system is a costly plan that may result in longer wait times for fewer drugs for many Canadians, instead of focusing on those who currently lack coverage. Learn More. | | | | | Where the leaders are | |
— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in Winnipeg meeting with students and teachers at 9:30 a.m. local time to talk about the national school lunch program, then a 10:30 a.m. media avail.
— Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Montreal for private meetings before touring a community center at 1 p.m. alongside Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT, also with the school food program on the agenda, and a 1:50 p.m. media avail. — Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE has not released a public schedule. — NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH has not released a public schedule. — Bloc Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET has not released a public schedule. — Green Party Leader ELIZABETH MAY will meet with constituents in her riding of Saanich-Gulf Islands. | | DULY NOTED | |
Cabmin GUDIE HUTCHINGS will join Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador ANDREW FUREY in Gros Morne National Park to celebrate the completion of the visitor center project at the UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Global Affairs Canada will host the 54th annual meeting of the board of governors of the Caribbean Development Bank in Ottawa, Ontario through Monday. | | For your radar | |
THE FIGHT FOR SUMMER — In one corner, JUSTIN TRUDEAU charged the Conservatives have made the carbon tax a “difficult conversation” because they’re “axing the facts.”
In the other, PIERRE POILIEVRE argued the PM has taken a hatchet to family vacationing for the whole country, and called for a summer break on gas and diesel taxes to reduce prices by 35 cents a liter. The two couldn’t have been much further apart Thursday, figuratively or literally — Trudeau in New Brunswick and Poilievre in Vancouver — but they might as well have been in the ring. Both used time during their campaign-style stops to talk in slogans and argue that the other is punishing Canadians. “Canadians need [to vacation] now more than ever, with how miserable things are going in this country of ours,” Poilievre said, and sent out a petition on social media for his latest new press on the government. — Rhetoric bingo: “Radical.” Check. “Wacko.” Check. Banning roads. Check. CATHERINE MCKENNA, name checked. — Clip war: “We don't need to make pollution free again,” Trudeau said in response. “He talks about stopping the fight against climate change at a time where the country is burning.” The PM also briefly piqued the attention of some Twitterati, the brave few who still linger on X anyway, about whether there was a veiled “Dark Knight” reference suggesting Poilievre would “rather watch the country burn.” The fight comes on the heels of the firefighters in western Canada battling the first big blazes of the season, and several towns experiencing the first evacs of the season. | | WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN | |
UP: The amount of ink spilled about Tim Hortons’ new melty non-plastic lids.
DOWN: The project failure known as the Phoenix pay system, which days are now numbered. | | HALLWAY CONVERSATION | | | | 
Canadian Energy Minister Jonathan Wilkinson credits a bilateral task force with the U.S. Defense Department decision to make new foreign investments in Canada. | Hiro Komae/AP Photo | MONEY MOVES — Energy Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON says the U.S. military’s decision to award $14.8 million in funding for two Canadian critical mineral companies comes with “no strings attached.” The U.S. Defense Department confirmed Fortune Minerals and Lomiko Metals will receive grants from the Cold War-era Defense Production Act to mine and process critical minerals in North America just as a trade war heats up with China. Both companies are early-stage miners looking to produce and refine critical minerals for rechargeable batteries with projects proposed in the Northwest Territories and Quebec. Playbook caught up with Wilkinson for more details about the deal and the U.S. military’s involvement in developing Canada’s critical minerals supply chain. Pro subscribers can read the full interview here. This excerpt has been edited for length and clarity. The U.S. is offering more under the DPA than Canada under its critical minerals strategy. How does that affect ownership of these Canadian companies? These are grants. No strings attached. In the case of Lomiko, the American investment is larger, although we have actually put some money into Lomiko in the past. In Fortune, our investment is actually bigger. We have put money into Fortune previously. But the agreement with the Americans wasn’t necessarily that we would do exactly the same amount on each investment — it was that we would look to co-invest where it made sense for the purpose of accelerating the work that needs to be done. “No strings attached” to Department of Defense money? Really? The only string attached is that we all want to see these companies actually move faster and get to the point where they can actually produce product sooner. There are no formal strings in terms of requirements of access or those kinds of things. | | | | A message from Canadian Chamber of Commerce:   | | | | | MEDIA ROOM | | — The Globe’s STEVEN CHASE writes that members of Congress are complaining to the USTR over Canada’s online streaming act. — On THE DECIBEL today: How Ottawa is preparing for a possible second Trump term. — CBC’s LILY DUPUIS writes that Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH won’t repeal a controversial Calgary rezoning bylaw, despite a new provincial bill granting the ability to overturn municipal bylaws. — In the National Post, BRYAN PASSIFIUME reports on the costs of the COP28’s Canada pavilion, which included an appearance by rapper BABA BRINKMAN, the son of former federal fisheries minister JOYCE MURRAY. — “How much time do people need in the office to have a sense of shared purpose?” KATHRYN MAY explores “a big unanswered question” in the debate over hybrid and virtual work in the public service. — Canada in the pages of The Economist: Facebook turned off the news in Canada. What happened next? — CP’s ROSA SABA writes that Loblaw is finally ready to sign the grocery code of conduct. — NICK HARDINGES wrote a Snopes fact-check into Orwellian claims about Bill C-63. | | PROZONE | |
Don’t miss the latest POLITICO Canada newsletter for Pro subscribers via ZI-ANN LUM: Three Amigos rendezvous TBA, Trudeau says.
And from Pro Trade reporter DOUG PALMER: Unresolved USMCA disputes pile up under Biden. In other news for Pro readers: — US military awards $14.8M to Canadian critical minerals firms. — How Ukraine became the testing ground for AI-powered combat. — Biden takes aim at China with new solar trade actions. — EU agency sounds alarm over health risks of warming waters. — Extreme summer weather risks outages in some U.S. regions. | | PLAYBOOKERS | |
Birthdays: HBD to Ontario MPP PARM GILL (50!). Also celebrating: Former MPP HOWARD HAMPTON, MYRA FREEMAN (30th lieutenant-governor of Nova Scotia), former MPs ANDRÉ MALTAIS and STAN KEYES.
HBD + 1 to CHRIS SANDS, director of the Wilson Center’s Canada Institute. On Saturday: HBD to NIGEL WRIGHT, former Cabmin GORDON O’CONNOR, former MPs BOB DECHERT and DENNIS GRUENDING, author and podcaster JULIA DE LAURENTIIS JOHNSTON, PMO strategic comms adviser MICHELLE JOHNSTON. On Sunday: NATIONAL PR senior counsel and longtime politico BOB RICHARDSON, Conservative MP JAMES BEZAN, television personality and former MNA MARIO DUMONT, former MPs MARIA MOURANI and TARIK BRAHMI. Birthdays, gatherings, social notices for this community: Send them our way. Spotted: Governor General MARY SIMON will receive an honorary degree from the Royal Military College of Canada today. Ukrainian Ambassador YULIYA KOVALIV sporting her traditional “vyshyvanka” embroidered shirt on Vyshyvanka Day. Koch Industries in the lobby registry, recently meeting with Conservative MPs: DAN MAZIER, WARREN STEINLEY, TOM KMIEC, BRANDEN LESLIE, ROBERT KITCHEN, LARRY MAGUIRE, CHRIS WARKENTIN, ARNOLD VIERSEN, MARTY MORANTZ, RANDY HOBACK and GÉRARD DELTELL. Liberal MP JULIE DZEROWICZ encountering sports academic and Olympian BRUCE KIDD at a designer boutique. The Liberal Party, sending out a “BBQ Banter”talking-point cheat sheet to supporters for when they’re “getting grilled by a friend or family member.” Movers and shakers: BOB PICKARD is now a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute. OWEN CRAWFORD-LEM is consulting for Crestview Strategy in Ottawa. The Western Producer’s ED WHITE has an interview with the new chief commissioner of the Canadian Grain Commission, DAVID HUNT. Media mentions: In the Montreal Gazette, BILL BROWNSTEIN has this profile of CTV weatherperson LORI GRAHAM, who leaves towards the end of the month. RICHARD WARNICA announced that he’s looking for pitches as he helps the Star to expand its opinion section. Farewells: DARREN DUTCHYSHEN has died. The TSN host revealed he was diagnosed with prostate cancer in September 2021. Send Playbookers tips to ottawaplaybook@politico.com . | | | | A message from Canadian Chamber of Commerce: A report by the Parliamentary Budget Officer estimated that implementing a comprehensive, single payer pharmacare plan would cost the government $33.2 billion in the first year, rising to $38.9 billion within three years. Despite the high cost, such a plan would leave most Canadians worse off.
Most Canadians have drug insurance through their employers, giving them faster access to more medications. Those on public plans wait over two years for new medicines. People with private coverage have access to 64% of new drugs, while public plan members have access to only 18%.
With 97.2% of Canadians already eligible for some form of drug coverage, transitioning to a single-payer system would disrupt a system most Canadians are satisfied with to close a small 2.8% coverage gap.
As legislation moves through parliamentary and public discussion, the government should consider a more sensible approach that improves coverage and provides all Canadians with faster access to the lifesaving and life-improving medicines. | | | | | | ON THE HILL | | → Find House committees here. → Keep track of Senate committees here. 8:30 a.m. Statistics Canada will release March numbers on Canada’s international transactions in securities. It will also release an update on investment in building construction, monthly credit aggregates and real-time local business conditions. | | | TRIVIA | | |
Thursday’s answer: The first statue on Parliament Hill was of Sir GEORGE-ÉTIENNE CARTIER (1885).
Props to ROBERT MCDOUGALL, GERMAINE MALABRE, NANCI WAUGH, MATT DELISLE and MARCEL MARCOTTE. LAURA JARVIS and GORDON RANDALL also got this week’s tulip question. Friday’s question: Here’s a real toughie, but a Hansard favorite of yours truly: Which former parliamentarian once said in the House of Commons, “I do not think, so long as we have raisin pies in Canada, that we need a national flag. A raisin pie would be sufficient for a national symbol because you find it in every home in Canada.” Answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Writing Monday’s Ottawa Playbook: NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage. Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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