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Hamas accepts a ceasefire deal as Rafah invasion looms

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May 06, 2024 View in browser
 
Playbook PM

By Bethany Irvine

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THE CATCH-UP

Palestinians flee from the eastern side of the southern Gaza city of Rafah after the Israeli army orders them to evacuate ahead of a military operation, in Rafah, Gaza Strip, Monday, May 6, 2024. The order affects tens of thousands of people and could signal a broader invasion of Rafah, which Israel has identified as Hamas' last major stronghold after seven months of war. (AP Photo/Ismael Abu Dayyah)

Palestinians flee from the Gaza city of Rafah after the Israeli army ordered them to evacuate ahead of a military operation, May 6, 2024. | AP

BREAKING — “Hamas says it accepts ceasefire proposal of Egypt, Qatar,” via Reuters: “Hamas said on Monday that it had accepted a Gaza ceasefire proposal from Egypt and Qatar. The Islamist faction said in a statement that its chief, ISMAIL HANIYEH, had informed Qatar's prime minister and Egypt's intelligence chief of its acceptance of their proposal.”

Earlier today, Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU spoke with President JOE BIDEN on his plan to invade the Gazan city of Rafah. During the half-hour phone call, Biden updated the Israeli PM on negotiations over the long-sought cease-fire deal, according to a readout from the White House, Biden also “reiterated his clear position on Rafah,” per the readout, even as Israel ramps up its efforts to evacuate the more than 1 million Palestinians seeking refuge in the city ahead of the expected military offensive.

In Rafah: “The Israeli military on Monday told Palestinians sheltering in some areas of eastern Rafah to move to a designated area farther north, warning them of an anticipated offensive to rout Hamas in the southern Gazan city,” WSJ’s Rory Jones, Anat Peled and Fatima AbdulKarim report. “The Israeli military said Monday’s evacuation notice would affect an estimated 100,000 people in Rafah. It didn’t give a deadline for when the affected neighborhoods had to be evacuated or indicate when a broader offensive might start.”

In the administration: U.S. officials were unaware of this initial order, “sending top U.S. aides scrambling to understand the reasoning,” as fears rise over an imminent invasion, Alexander Ward, Lara Seligman and Erin Banco report: “The events present a precarious moment for Biden … He faces the possibility of having to more openly defy Netanyahu, which would involve insisting he pull back from sending thousands of Israeli soldiers into a treacherous war zone.”

On Capitol Hill: In a new letter led by Sen. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.), a dozen GOP senators have threatened the International Criminal Court with sanctions should they issue arrest warrants for Israeli officials for their actions during the war, saying the move would be “illegitimate and lack legal basis,” Matt Berg reports. “Target Israel and we will target you,” the letter warns. “If you move forward with the measures indicated in the report, we will move to end all American support for the ICC, sanction your employees and associates, and bar you and your families from the United States.”

TRUMP IN CONTEMPT, THREATENED WITH JAIL — DONALD TRUMP has been found in contempt of court yet again. And Justice JUAN MERCHAN sounds like he’s out of patience.

Merchan had previously ruled that on nine occasions, Trump had violated a gag order that bars him from generally attacking prosecutors, witnesses and jurors, and fined him $1,000 per instance.

“It appears that the $1,000 fines are not serving as a deterrent,” Merchan said today. “Going forward, this court will have to consider a jail sanction.”

“The magnitude of this decision is not lost on me but at the end of the day I have a job to do,” Merchan continued. “So as much as I don't want to impose a jail sanction … I want you to understand that I will if necessary and appropriate.” More from Josh Gerstein, Kyle Cheney and Erica Orden

This latest contempt charge pertains to a statement Trump made last month on a radio show on which he described how the jury was “picked so quickly” and made up of “95 percent Democrats.” In disparaging the jury selection, Trump “not only called into question the integrity, and therefore the legitimacy of these proceedings, but again raised the specter of the safety of the jurors and of their loved ones,” Merchan wrote.

Noteworthy skepticism, from Dem attorney Eric Columbus: “I don’t get this. If, as Judge Merchan says, all the offending statements were made prior to the imposition of the first fine, why does he say that it’s evident that fines won’t deter Trump? Deterrence doesn’t work retroactively!”

COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY LATEST — After weeks of pro-Palestinian demonstrations on campus — culminating in protesters occupying a university building and the NYPD being called in to reclaim it — Columbia University officials have cancelled the schoolwide commencement ceremony and will replace it with “smaller-scale, school-based celebrations,” reports the Columbia Spectator’s Emily Forgash. The university’s announcement

House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON lambasted Columbia University President MINOUCHE SHAFIK for canceling the commencement ceremony, and called once again for her resignation: “[I]t is abundantly clear that President Shafik would rather cede control to Hamas supporters than restore order, Columbia’s Board of Trustees should immediately remove her and appoint a new president who will,” Johnson said in a statement on X.

Related read: “Massive pro-Palestinian college protests bring rare surge in discipline,” by WaPo’s Laura Meckler and Hannah Natanson

Good Monday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at birvine@politico.com.

 

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6 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) during a meeting on Capitol Hill.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) vowed last week she would force a vote on her motion to vacate Speaker Mike Johnson from office this week, she hasn’t yet laid out the exact timing. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

1. HAPPENING SOON: Speaker Johnson is slated to meet with Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.) at 3:30 p.m. as the House braces for a potential vote this week on Greene’s effort to oust the Louisiana Republican from the speakership, Fox News’ Brianna Herlihy and Elizabeth Elkind report. While Greene vowed last week she would force a vote on her motion to vacate this week, she hasn’t yet laid out the exact timing. Still, with the majority of the GOP conference and House Democrats behind Johnson, the measure is all but dead.

But, but, but … “Support for Johnson from Democrats will open the speaker up to even more criticism from the right flank of his party, which is already dissatisfied with his willingness to lean on Democrats to pass spending and foreign aid legislation,” Katherine Tully-McManus reports.

2. BERN NOTICE: Sen. BERNIE SANDERS, the most prominent progressive in the Senate, announced he will run for a fourth term this fall, placing the 82-year old Vermont independent on course to serve an additional six years, Burgess Everett reports.

“‘I have been, and will be if reelected, in a strong position to provide the kind of help Vermonters need in these difficult times,’ Sanders said in a video announcing his intent to seek his seat again. … Sanders caucuses with the Democrats and serves on Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER's leadership team, but will run as an independent yet again. That means he's likely to win the Democratic nomination in his state but turn it down, as he has done in previous cycles.”

3. DISPATCH FROM THE BADGER STATE: From a TAYLOR SWIFT album listening party, to bingo games and step classes, WaPo’s Michael Scherer reports from Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on the creative ways that Biden’s reelection campaign is organizing on the ground in even “the swingiest of swing states.” Even as the Biden reelect has opened “more than 150 offices in nine states, including 46 in Wisconsin," traditional outreach methods like TV ads have lost efficacy when it comes to reaching non-voters. “That brings Biden to pay for bingo prizes, bracelet making, and trivia nights — trying to recruit the people who might know the people the campaign needs to vote.”

 

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4. WAR IN UKRAINE:  As U.S. and Western allies supporting Ukraine discuss further engagement in the war in Ukraine, the Russian Defense Federation made its first public announcement this morning that it will hold simulated nuclear weapon drills following what it considers “provocative statements and threats of certain Western officials regarding the Russian Federation,” per the AP.

The 30,000-foot view: The announcement comes on the eve of Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN’s inauguration for a fifth term in office while also marking “Russia’s shift into what pro-Kremlin commentators call a ‘revolutionary power,’” WaPo’s Robyn Dixon writes in a lengthy deep dive on the evolution of the Kremlin under Putin’s 25 years in office.

5. GUNS AND SHIPS: “Sea drone warfare has arrived. The U.S. is floundering,” by Reuters’ Joe Brock and Mike Stone: “Deputy Secretary of Defense KATHLEEN HICKS announced an initiative in August — named Replicator — to deploy hundreds of small, relatively cheap air and sea drones,” But “[t]his public show of commitment masks years of hesitation by the U.S. Navy to build a fleet of unmanned vessels despite repeated warnings this was the future of maritime warfare.”

6. WATCH THIS SPACE: Top Democrats on the Hill and White House officials met last week to discuss an aggressive new immigration strategy after Republicans blocked the administration’s border bill earlier this year, NBC News’ Julie Tsirkin and Julia Ainsley scoop. The plans could “include forcing votes that Republicans would be likely to oppose,” like bringing back up parts of the bipartisan border package, as well as potential executive actions. While no formal timeline has been announced, “ Advocacy groups and DHS officials have been led to believe that an order could be announced as early as this week but more likely at the end of May or in early June.”

 

LISTEN TO POLITICO'S ENERGY PODCAST: Check out our daily five-minute brief on the latest energy and environmental politics and policy news. Don't miss out on the must-know stories, candid insights, and analysis from POLITICO's energy team. Listen today.

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

Kevin Spacey voiced his support for RFK Jr.: “When the world turned its back on me, Bobby leaned in.”

Geoff Duncan is voting for Joe Biden.

Nancy Pelosi wrote a letter to the editor of the NYT on democracy reforms.

TRANSITIONS — Stasha Rhodes is now a senior fellow for the Center for American Progress. She currently is the executive director of United for Democracy. … Sarah Freeman-Woolpert will be national field director for Free Press’ journalism and civic media program. She previously was deputy director of strategic advocacy at the Friends Committee on National Legislation. … Leila Fleming is now a legislative assistant for Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-Mich.) She previously was a public policy specialist at Akin Gump.

WEEKEND WEDDINGS — Rosy Brummette, policy adviser to Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), and Aaron Weber, senior adviser for Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.), got married at the Amway Grand Plaza Hotel in Grand Rapids, Michigan. They met at a congressional happy hour in 2019. Pic, via Kellie Hetler Photography … Another pic … SPOTTED: Conner Swanson, Robbie Lauf, Lauren French and Jake Wilkins, Gabrielle Wesseldyk, Lia Biondo, Spencer Chase, Laura Lee Burkett, Craig Berning, Ryan Donnelly, Kyle Varner, Calla Wickenhauser, Tyler Hardy, John Altendorf, Trey Forsyth and Jones Hussey.

— Rachel McPherson, comms director at Red Edge, and Colin Hensel, digital director at the Herald Group, got married Saturday at Raspberry Plain Manor in Leesburg, Virginia. They met on Capitol Hill and had their first date at a Nationals game in 2019. Pic

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — James Gelfand, president and CEO of the ERISA Industry Committee, and Tegan Gelfand, head of federal affairs and public policy at Ferring Pharmaceuticals, welcomed Leonidas “Leo” Julius Gelfand on Friday. He joins big brother Ajax. Pic … Another pic

— Shelby Hartley, strategic comms manager at the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association, and Kevin Hartley, assistant director of government relations at the American Veterinary Medical Association, welcomed Hayes Hartley on Friday. He joins big brother Hudson. Pic

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