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May 13, 2024 View in browser
 
Ottawa Playbook

By Kyle Duggan

Presented by 

Canadian Chamber of Commerce

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Welcome to Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it.

In today’s edition: 

→ Fresh details on the foreign minister’s latest travel.

→ Three things we’re watching: Wildfires; another arrest over the killing of HARDEEP SINGH NIJJAR; and what’s likely asterisked on PIERRE POILIEVRE’s calendar.

→ Plus, the latest in U.S. election strangeness.

DRIVING THE DAY

Canada's Foreign Minister Melanie Joly speaks with the media as she arrives for a meeting of NATO foreign ministers at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Wednesday, April 3, 2024. NATO foreign ministers gathered in Brussels on Wednesday to debate plans to provide more predictable, longer-term support to Ukraine. (AP Photo/Virginia Mayo)

Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly has a week of travel on her agenda. | AP

AT A GOOD CLIP — Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY is jetting off to Lebanon, Cyprus, Turkey and Greece while the normal House of Commons programming is on pause for a constituency week.

She’s traveling from today through Friday, set to meet counterparts CONSTANTINOS KOMBOS of Cyprus, HAKAN FIDAN of Turkey and GIORGOS GERAPETRITIS of Greece.

— On the agenda: The fluid situation in the Middle East and the Caucasus.

→ In Cyprus, Joly and Kombos are set to chat about stepping up humanitarian aid into Gaza and regional security.

→ In Lebanon, she’ll meet with senior officials to “underscore Canada’s support for Lebanon and Lebanese people in their current challenges,” her itinerary states.ABDALLAH BOU HABIB and Joly spoke on the phone over the weekend about the Lebanese-Israeli border, and according to a government readout, he will not be able to meet her in Beirut because he is scheduled to be in Bahrain for a prep meeting for the Arab Summit.

 → In Turkey, Joly is set to raise with senior officials “increased cooperation” between the two countries with the minister and discuss regional stability in the South Caucasus.

 — New and noteworthy: All four of those countries voted “Yes” on Friday’s resolution on Palestine’s bid for full-member status at the United Nations.

Canada reversed its position from a “No” to instead abstaining on the symbolic vote over Palestinian statehood, one of 25 nations including the U.K. and Germany, leaving the U.S. as the only G7 member opposing it.

— Ambiguity abounds: The PM suggested Canada is ready to recognize statehood before peace negotiations conclude, but without spelling out exactly what that means.

— Diplo-explainer: Canada’s ambassador to the U.N., BOB RAE, told host DAVID COCHRANE on “Power & Politics" that Canada’s position is a two-state solution, but it is “not yet in a position to recognize Palestine as a state member of the United Nations for the simple reason that the authority does not control all of the country.”

“The Hamas part [of the problem], when you have a terrorist organization there, you have to say, ‘Well, what exactly are we recognizing?’ And that's where we kind of hesitated to go to ‘Yes.’ On the other hand, we couldn't say ‘No,’ because we can't pretend that Israel at the moment is even remotely interested in the two-state solution.”

“This is not a giveaway to either side.”

 

A message from Canadian Chamber of Commerce:

Bill C-64, the Pharmacare Act, establishes the foundational principles for the initial phase of a national universal pharmacare program in Canada. The 2024 federal budget allocates $1.5 billion over five years, starting in 2024-25, to launch the National Pharmacare Plan. However, a single-payer system is a costly plan that may result in longer wait times for fewer drugs for many Canadians, instead of focusing on those who currently lack coverage. Learn More.

 
THREE THINGS WE'RE WATCHING


IT BEGINS — We’ve all been bracing for it. The warnings have all been there. This could be another bad wildfire season, on the heels of Canada’s worst on record last year.

As of late Sunday, thousands of residents of Fort McMurray were still under evacuation alert, as a wildfire rages to its southwest. They weren’t alone, with Grande Prairie similarly affected.

In neighboring B.C.,thousands are on order to leave Fort Nelson, ANDREW KURJATA, MOIRA WYTON, TESSA VIKANDER and MEGAN TURCATO report for CBC.

Two nearby wildfires there had gone underground for the winter to reemerge as “zombie fires,” resulting in an evacuation alert.

Smoke from B.C. blew into Edmonton, blanketing the city in a haze and prompting air-quality warnings there.

Similar air-quality alerts were issued for much of southern Manitoba, including Winnipeg, and for northern Ontario.

The world remembers Canada’s brutal fire season last year that hurtled noxious smoke into U.S. cities and even faraway Europe. It’s early days, but that’s already led to a fresh round of international coverage.

CHOICES, CHOICES — PIERRE POILIEVRE is spoiled for options for his theme of the week when it comes to points to hammer home, given all that’s in the news.

— Calendar calculator: For starters, Tuesday marks his (arbitrary) six-week deadline for his demand that the PM call together all the premiers for a fed-prov “emergency” meeting on the controversial federal carbon tax.

"You must sit down with the premiers and listen to them," Poilievre wrote in an open letter he published on April 2.

Trudeau has resisted calling such a major meeting and has noted he did meet with them,way back in 2016.

— Example #2: Another sure way to net some earned media: Wade into the three-day mandatory work-from-office policy that public service unions have come out swinging against.

That policy kicks off in September and has unions threatening legal actions and warning of a “summer of discontent.”

— Playing catch-up?: Long-time public-service watcher KATHRYN MAY has the clearest rundown of the controversy in her IRPP newsletter, The Functionary.

It’s a juicy one for conservatives with not-so-flexible work policies in private sector offices, giving off entitlement vibes. But Poilievre has so far been pretty quiet on the matter.

— Risk assessment: Conservative SEAN SPEER hypothesized in The Hub that “this issue could represent a big opportunity for MAXIME BERNIER and the People’s Party,” which has “lacked an identity since the repeal of the pandemic restrictions and Poilievre’s own political ascendancy.”

“Poilievre has carefully protected his right flank. He would be wise to avoid letting Bernier outflank him on getting public servants back to the office.”

— 2-to-1: Playbook could go on, but, for the betting folks out there, the safest options remain: Ax the tax, fix the budget, stop the crime…yada yada — not to mention the ongoing drug decriminalization saga that keeps on ticking.

INDIAN ARRESTS — Global News’ STEWART BELL reports that an Indian citizen arrested in Brampton over the weekend is alleged to be one of the two gunmen who shot HARDEEP SINGH NIJJAR last year.

The 22-year-old is the fourth suspect charged over Nijjar’s death. Earlier in the month, police arrested three Indian nationals in Edmonton and issued murder and conspiracy charges.

Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU surprised the nation back in September when he rose in the Commons to warn of “credible allegations” of Indian involvement in the death of the Sikh activist.

That sparked a diplomatic row with India, plunging relations between the two countries to a low.

A spokesperson for the Indian government said last week that Canada hasn’t shared any evidence yet to back up its claims that India was involved in Nijjar’s death, and accused Canada of harboring separatist extremists.

Where the leaders are


— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in Southwestern Ontario, where will visit a child care center at 11 a.m. for a photo-op ahead of a 11:20 a.m. announcement.

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is joining the PM for the child care announcement alongside Women and Gender Equality Minister MARCI IEN, and Families, Children and Social Development Minister JENNA SUDDS.

— NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH is in Thunder Bay to meet with Fort William First Nation Chief MICHELE SOLOMON.

— Green Party Leader ELIZABETH MAY will co-host a forum in Saanich with B.C. Green MLA ADAM OLSEN. Later in the day, she will update the EcoAction Committee of the Green Party of the U.S. on the INC-4 meetings for the global treaty on plastics.

DULY NOTED


Defense Minister BILL BLAIR will be in Washington to meet with U.S. Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN at the Pentagon. The Canadian national defense minister will also deliver remarks at an Atlantic Council event hosted at the Canadian Embassy, titled “Our North, Strong and Free.”

International Development Minister AHMED HUSSEN is in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia with plans to meet Chadian Foreign Minister MOUSSA FAKI MAHAMAT, chairperson of the African Union Commission.

Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT and Natural Resources Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON are in Victoria to make an announcement at 12:20 p.m. (local time) on home heating and cooling in the province. Also at the event: BC Energy Minister JOSIE OSBORNE and BC Environment Minister GEORGE HEYMAN.

 

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2024 WATCH

Donald Trump stands on a stage while pointing to the crowd.

Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump arrives at a campaign rally in Wildwood, New Jersey on May 11. | Matt Rourke/AP

DOUSED WITH COLD WATER — DONALD TRUMP says he is not considering NIKKI HALEY for his VP pick, MYAH WARDreports for POLITICO.

— Cold shoulders: That came not long after Axios reported she was under “active consideration” by his campaign as a prospective running mate despite their frosty relationship.

“The sources said Trump could pick Haley if he were convinced she'd help him win the presidency, avoid a potential prison sentence and cover tens of millions in legal bills if he loses,” Axios’ ALEX THOMPSON wrote.

— Covetable base: Haley, who has yet to endorse Trump, remarkably keeps racking up votes in the final stretch of the GOP primary, despite having dropped out. That has drawn the attention and ad dollars of the Biden camp, looking to poach anti-Trump Republicans, reports ADAM WREN, ELENA SCHNEIDER and NATALIE ALLISON.

— A lot to unload: Trump attacked Biden at a weekend rally, where he claimed the president is “surrounded by fascists,” and even offered up some rare praise for the “great HANNIBAL LECTER,” a “wonderful man.” Intrigued? It’s worth reading our Sunday U.S. Playbook colleagues telling the tale of the contrasts between Trump and Biden events, who were atypically out campaigning at the same time.

— For court watchers: POLITICO is running a liveblog of the Trump trial.

— Quietest running mate: ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. has chosen his running mate, though: NICOLE SHANAHAN, a tech entrepreneur and former Democratic donor facing criticism that she’s only on the ticket due to her vast personal wealth.

She held a subdued campaign trail debut in Texas, after weeks of limiting her public exposure to friendly podcasts, virtual events and social media, reports POLITICO’s BRITTANY GIBSON. Kennedy is anticipated to be the strongest third-party challenger in decades partially due to his name.

— Trumpian trade policy, redux: “As disruptive and arguably ineffective as Donald Trump’s policies were during his one term in office, including costly trade wars with China and Europe and the final death knell to global trade rules, he is promising much more a second time around,” KEITH JOHNSON writes in Foreign Policy.

MEDIA ROOM


— JOËL-DENIS BELLAVANCE scoops for La Presse that the PM will appoint FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE as co-president for the next Liberal campaign in Quebec.

— MARTIN FORNUSEK writes for the Kyiv Independent that Canada will be in Switzerland to take part in the global peace summit for Ukraine June 15-16 aimed at producing a negotiation position on the end of the war.

— Canada’s ambassador to Russia, SARAH TAYLOR, was on CBC’s The House this weekend telling host CATHERINE CULLEN that Canada’s relationship with Russia is the worst it’s been since end of the Soviet Union. She opens up about Ottawa’s "limited engagement" policy and that she did not go to VLADIMIR PUTIN’s inauguration.

— Former Alberta cabinet minister DONNA KENNEDY-GLANS has an interview with ANDREW LESLIE in the National Post, in which Leslie says he is talking to Poilievre’s team about defense strategy and finds them “receptive, aware and focused.”

— CP’s JIM BRONSKILL reports RCMP commissioner MIKE DUHEME thinks there should be a new law to make it easier for police to charge people issuing threats to elected politicians.

— Disabilities Minister KAMAL KHERA was on CTV Question Period defending the Canada Disability Benefit as a first step with more to come, following heavy criticism it falls short, SPENCER VAN DYK writes.

— “The rage crew are only going to get bolder,” MP CHARLIE ANGUS warns in an essay for The Tyee.

— DEAN BEEBY pays tribute to Canada’s first information commissioner. 

PROZONE


For POLITICO Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter by ZI-ANN LUM: Why BILL BLAIR is heading to DC.

In other news for Pro readers:  

— Schumer: Senate AI policy road map coming within weeks.

— U.S. officials to spend millions to contain bird flu outbreak amid testing lag.

— Trump pressed oil executives to give $1B for his campaign, people in industry say.

— Michigan plans to sue oil industry over climate change.

— The Fed asked 6 banks to simulate climate disasters. Here’s what they found.

— French digital industry braces for crackdown on kids’ screentime.

PLAYBOOKERS


Birthdays: HBD to GURRATAN SINGH of Crestview Strategy, MEGAN BUTTLE of Earnscliffe, MPP PAUL CALANDRA and former MP GUY CARON.

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way.

Spotted: PIERRE POILIEVRE out knocking doors with candidates in the GTA — in York Centre with candidate ROMAN BABER and in Richmond Hill with VINCENT NEIL HO.

In the House: A moment of silence in memory of REX MURPHY, who died last week.

RIVER, son of Sen. PATRICK BRAZEAU, spotted in the Senate gallery. 

ROLAND PARIS, director University of Ottawa Graduate School of Public and International Affairs, with thoughts on Hill conduct: “American practices and preoccupations often seep into Canada, for better or worse,” he observed on X. “In the ‘worse’ column: Canadian politicians aggressively questioning witnesses in Parliamentary committees for [YouTube] clips.”

B.C. Premier DAVID EBY and Alberta counterpart, DANIELLE SMITH, watching Game 2 of the Oilers-Canucks series from a private suite at Rogers Arena in Vancouver.

Sen. DONNA DASKO, celebrating the opening of the new Canadian Canoe Museum: “Bring your paddles.”

President of the Canadian Study of Parliament Group, CHARLIE FELDMAN, with a spot quiz.

Movers and shakers: China’s former ambassador to Canada, CONG PEIWU, who abruptly left his Ottawa posting in April amid frosty bilateral relations, has started at his new posting in Tehran, according to Iranian state-controlled media.

NINA LOTHIAN announced that she’s moved on from her role as STEVEN GUILBEAULT’s director of climate and energy policy.

In memoriam: Former Liberal Cabinet minister JIM PETERSON died Friday at the age of 82. “His big brain and his big heart meant everything to us and to anyone who had the privilege to know or work alongside him,” his family said in a statement sent to Playbook. As the CBC News obituary recounts, Peterson once helped ballet dancer MIKHAIL BARYSHNIKOV defect to the West.

REID MORDEN, a veteran diplomat who served as the director of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service from 1988 to 1992, died last week at the age of 82, JOSH RUBIN of the Star reports.

Media mentions: APTN investigative reporter KENNETH JACKSON is the 2024 recipient of the Hugh P. O’Neil Outstanding Alumni Award at Loyalist College.

RBC’s “Disruptors” has been nominated for best tech pod in the Quill Podcast Awards. … “The Canadian Potcast” is in the running for best news and best interview podcast.

ON THE HILL


→ Find House committees here.

→ Keep track of Senate committees here.

— Parliament will return May 21. 

8:30 a.m. Statistics Canada will release new March numbers on building permits.

8:45 a.m. Quebec Native Women will host a summit at the Hilton hotel in Gatineau on the future of Indigenous women’s rights advocacy in the province.

12 p.m. Former Prime Minister STEPHEN HARPER will be the guest of honor at the C.D. Howe Institute’s Hugh & Laura MacKinnon Roundtable event in Toronto.

2 p.m. The NATO Association of Canada will host a webinar with Finland’s Ambassador to Canada JARI VILÉN, to mark the country’s first anniversary since joining the alliance.

9:30 p.m. (6:30 p.m. PT) MARC MILLER will be in Vancouver to headline a private fundraiser at the Granville Island Hotel to support local Liberal MP TALEEB NOORMOHAMED.

We're tracking every major political event of 2024 on a mega-calendar. Send us events and download the calendar yourself for Google and other clients .

 

A message from Canadian Chamber of Commerce:

A report by the Parliamentary Budget Officer estimated that implementing a comprehensive, single payer pharmacare plan would cost the government $33.2 billion in the first year, rising to $38.9 billion within three years. Despite the high cost, such a plan would leave most Canadians worse off.

Most Canadians have drug insurance through their employers, giving them faster access to more medications. Those on public plans wait over two years for new medicines. People with private coverage have access to 64% of new drugs, while public plan members have access to only 18%.

With 97.2% of Canadians already eligible for some form of drug coverage, transitioning to a single-payer system would disrupt a system most Canadians are satisfied with to close a small 2.8% coverage gap.

As legislation moves through parliamentary and public discussion, the government should consider a more sensible approach that improves coverage and provides all Canadians with faster access to the lifesaving and life-improving medicines.

 
TRIVIA


Friday's answer: Public service reform was the subject of Canada’s first commission of inquiry in 1869.

Props to MARCEL MARCOTTE, SHAUGHN MCARTHUR, KATE DALGLEISH, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, MORGAN LORHANT, GERRY THORNE and NANCI WAUGH. 

A few people we missed mentioning on Friday: JOANNA PLATER, GERRY THORNE, ROBERT MCDOUGALL.

Today’s question: Name the last province in Canada to drive on the right-hand side of the road.

Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Writing tomorrow's Playbook: NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

 

Follow us on Twitter

Nick Taylor-Vaisey @TaylorVaisey

Sue Allan @susan_allan

Kyle Duggan @Kyle_Duggan

Zi-Ann Lum @ziannlum

POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa

 

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