| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg, Nahal Toosi and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  A boy waves a Palestinian flag as demonstrators march during a protest in support of Palestinians and calling for an immediate cease-fire in Gaza, in Barcelona, Spain, on Jan. 20, 2024. | Emilio Morenatti/AP | With help from Phelim Kine, Daniella Diaz and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric The Biden administration is displeased that three allies announced they would recognize a Palestinian state, but officials argue its impact is little more than a “ripple.” Today, Spain, Norway and Ireland said they would officially recognize Palestine as a state next Tuesday, drawing a line between Palestine and Israel based on the borders from before 1967. Washington had made clear to the countries — Spain and Ireland, in particular, given their more public approach — that recognizing a Palestinian state would not be useful, reiterating its standard position that such a state can only be established through negotiations, a U.S. official familiar with the issue told NatSec Daily. U.S. officials are now expressing that displeasure publicly. Asked about Israel’s growing diplomatic isolation today, national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN said, “That is of concern to us because we do not believe that that contributes to Israel's long-term security or vitality.” Still, the administration believes — or at least hopes — that the move by Spain, Norway and Ireland will not significantly raise the global tensions over the war in Gaza. “We would consider this an unavoidable reality of Spain and Ireland’s politics, and Norway has special reasons because of [the Oslo accords],” said the official, granted anonymity to speak candidly. The accords were a set of agreements in 1993 between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization that established a peace process for a two-state solution, which ultimately faltered. Given all of the drama involving the Middle East this week, including the International Criminal Court prosecutor’s decision to seek arrest warrants for Israeli and Hamas leaders, the three countries’ efforts may not have much impact, the official added. “They tried to make enough of a group so that it would make a splash, but in our view, it’s more like a ripple,” the official said. The U.S. also may be seeing the recognition of Palestine by these countries as a pressure point with Israel. Sullivan said U.S. officials had told Israel that a “strategic approach to defeating Hamas” and pursuing regional integration would help Israel revitalize those relationships. In recent weeks, U.S. officials have publicly criticized Israel’s military strategy in Gaza. While President JOE BIDEN has long supported a two-state solution between Israel and Palestine, he believes the best way to do it is through diplomacy. “He believes a Palestinian state should be realized through direct negotiations between the parties, not through unilateral recognition,” National Security Council spokesperson ADRIENNE WATSON told NatSec Daily. While it’s not surprising that the trio of countries support Palestinian statehood, the move could bolster Palestinians’ international recognition if other European countries sympathetic to their cause follow suit. Of the 193 United Nations member countries, 142 already recognize a Palestinian state, according to Palestinian officials. The effects of the recognition will be “cumulative and incremental and over time, but it does tell us that the United States is increasingly isolated,” MICHAEL WAHID HANNA, U.S. Program Director at the International Crisis Group think tank, told NatSec Daily. “Now this is not just Africa and South America and Asia — it’s Europe,” including NATO allies, Hanna added.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: F-35: Advancing 21st Century Security®
The F-35 is vital to 21st Century Security®. The most advanced, survivable, and connected fighter in the world is helping those we serve stay ahead of ready. Learn more. | | | | | IS CHINA SENDING WEAPONS TO RUSSIA? The U.S. is disputing an announcement from a top British official that U.S. and U.K. intelligence had evidence of China sending lethal aid to Russia amid its invasion of Ukraine. British Defence Minister GRANT SHAPPS said at a conference in London today that U.S. and British intelligence had evidence that "lethal aid is now, or will be, flowing from China to Russia and into Ukraine,” Reuters’ ANDREW MACASKILL reports. “I think it is a significant development,” he added. Shapps did not provide that evidence at the press conference. National security advisor JAKE SULLIVAN found Shapps’ comments baffling: “I look forward to speaking with the U.K. to make sure that we have a common operating picture we have had when we've been on the same page — I just want to understand better what exactly that comment was referring to,” Sullivan told reporters today. Shapps’ assertion went beyond the Biden administration’s position that Russia is providing key components to rebuild Russia’s industrial base, but stopping short of supplying lethal weaponry. "We never fan the flames or seek selfish gains, and we will certainly not accept being the scapegoat," Chinese spokesperson LIU PENGYU told NatSec Daily. RAFAH CROSSING TALKS: The Biden administration is in talks with a European Union organization to potentially help open and take control of the Rafah border crossing in Gaza amid Israel’s invasion of the city, our own ERIN BANCO reports. In the talks, Egyptian officials have said they want the Gazans who used to run the crossing, which has been closed since Israel’s invasion of the city on May 7, to return. Israel has argued that those who previously manned the crossing included members of Hamas — and that a new group should take over. The stalemate has significantly slowed the amount of aid getting through to Gazans amid Israel’s invasion of Rafah, threatening the return of famine-like conditions. The U.S. is proposing bringing in a neutral third party to take control of the crossing: The European Union Border Assistance Mission to the Rafah Crossing Point. The organization previously worked at the border in Gaza but suspended its operations in 2007 after Hamas took over Gaza. ZELENSKYY’S FRANCE PLANS: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY is planning to attend next month’s D-Day commemoration in France followed by the G7 meeting in Italy, two people familiar with the planning told our own ALEX WARD. Zelenskyy’s plans are particularly notable because he recently canceled foreign travel following Russia’s launch of a major offensive in the city of Kharkiv. But Ukraine is also in desperate need of continued support and global attention, and the trip would give him time with world leaders — including Biden — to plead his nation’s case. CONTROL BALT DELETE: Russia alarmed NATO allies by proposing to unilaterally redraw its border in the Baltic Sea — before withdrawing the bombshell text without offering an explanation, our own EVA HARTOG reports. The since-deleted draft decree authored by Russia’s defense ministry appeared on the government’s legal portal on Tuesday, and argued that the existing maritime border needed revising because it was established in 1985 using now-obsolete nautical charts. The changes, which the defense ministry proposed would enter into force in January next year, were aimed at crew on sea vessels as well as law enforcement and defense and security officials operating in the eastern Gulf of Finland. The plan riled Russia's neighbors: “Russia’s actions are seen as a deliberate, targeted, escalatory provocation to intimidate neighboring countries and their societies,” Lithuania’s foreign ministry told our colleagues. IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | | THE GOLD STANDARD OF DEFENSE POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. The Pro platform dives deeper into critical and quickly evolving sectors and industries, like defense, equipping policymakers and those who shape legislation and regulation with essential news and intelligence from the world’s best politics and policy journalists.
Our newsroom is deeper, more experienced, and better sourced than any other. Our defense reporting team—including Lara Seligman, Joe Gould, Paul McCleary, Connor O’Brien and Lee Hudson—is embedded with the market-moving legislative committees and agencies in Washington and across states, delivering unparalleled coverage of defense policy and the defense industry. We bring subscribers inside the conversations that determine policy outcomes and the future of industries, providing insight that cannot be found anywhere else. Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY. | | | | | | | | | TRUMP TRIES TO COURT ARAB AMERICANS: Former President DONALD TRUMP’s campaign dispatched top surrogate RICHARD GRENELL to meet with Arab American community leaders in Michigan — and didn’t impress them, according to NOTUS’ TINASHE CHINGARANDE. Attendees told NOTUS that Grenell, who served as ambassador to Germany, said Trump wouldn’t enact a “Muslim ban.” But Grenell, who is expected to hold a critical foreign policy role in a second Trump presidency, came off as “clueless on the Middle East,” they added. They added he also didn’t seem sufficiently concerned with the sheer number of Palestinian deaths in the conflict during the meeting, which was convened so Grenell could present the case for why Arab Americans should vote for Trump. The meeting speaks to the continued frustration within the Arab-American community over Biden’s support for Israel. Some voters and community leaders in the swing state are signaling their openness to voting for Trump, even if they haven’t received enough assurances that Trump will help their community or change course on the war in Gaza.
| | | |   | | | | | TIKTOK BAN: Half of voters support banning TikTok in the U.S. if its China-based parent ByteDance doesn’t divest the platform following the law signed by Biden last month, according to a Bloomberg / Morning Consult poll released today. Fifty-one percent of voters said they’d support a ban, while 33 percent said they’d oppose it. The support is notable, given TikTok’s push to mobilize young users against the law. While the platform’s legal challenges against the U.S. are ongoing, the poll gives insight into how many Americans — who may not use TikTok as often as younger voters — feel about the measure.
| | ISRAEL WEAPONS REBUKE: The House Foreign Affairs Committee today advanced a bill that would let Congress force the Biden administration to transfer stalled arms to Israel, our own JOE GOULD reports. The new bill, which is a narrower rebuke of Biden than the bill that the House passed last week, won a handful of Democratic votes. Though it’s unlikely to receive consideration in the Democratic-led Senate, it represents another vehicle for the House GOP to pressure Biden and split Democrats. PITCH TO JOIN NATO: Neutral countries that aren't NATO members but enjoy its "umbrella of protection" should have to join the military alliance, British defense chief Shapps said today. In a speech in London, Shapps stopped short of pointing directly at non-NATO European countries like Ireland, Malta, Austria and Switzerland, which have long prized neutrality. But he made clear Britain would be lobbying for more countries to join the bloc, as our own NOAH KEATE reports. “Some European countries effectively benefit from NATO coverage, they enjoy the benefits of freedom and liberty, and yet fail to sign up to the Continent’s collective deterrence," Shapps said, pointing to the threat posed by Russia. "Yet when the wolf is at the back door of European security there should be no place for neutrality.”
| | | | DON’T MISS POLITICO’S ENERGY SUMMIT: The future of energy faces a crossroads in 2024 as policymakers and industry leaders shape new rules, investments and technologies. Join POLITICO’s Energy Summit on June 5 as we convene top voices to examine the shifting global policy environment in a year of major elections in the U.S. and around the world. POLITICO will examine how governments are writing and rewriting new rules for the energy future and America’s own role as a major exporter. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | JOHNSON SUPPORTS UKRAINE STRIKING: House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON suggested that Ukraine should be allowed to use U.S.-provided weapons to strike inside Russia. "They need to be able to fight back and I think us trying to micromanage the effort there is not a good policy,” he said. For weeks, Ukrainian leaders have increasingly pleaded with the U.S. to allow them to strike Russian military equipment just over the border — though the Biden administration hasn’t budged on its policy preventing that. SAUDI DEAL SOON: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN told lawmakers today that a nuclear energy and defense deal with Saudi Arabia could be ready is “weeks away,” Eric reports (for Pros!) Testifying before House lawmakers, Blinken acknowledged that while normalization is still a ways away, a deal between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia is close to being finalized: “Those agreements are in principle very close to being able to be concluded,” Blinken said. It’s the latest signal the deal between Riyadh and Washington — expected to include a formal defense guarantee and provide Riyadh with access to more American-made weaponry — is imminent. Saudi Arabia would also, in turn, limit its ties to China. MEEKS BLASTS RUTO SNUB: Rep. GREGORY MEEKS (D-N.Y.), the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, slammed House GOP leadership for not inviting Kenyan President WILLIAM RUTO to address a joint session of Congress during his visit to Washington. Meeks told our own DANIELLA DIAZ and other reporters ahead of Ruto’s visit to the Hill that the snub was a “missed opportunity and a slap in the face” at a time when the U.S. faces competition in Africa from China, and Kenya has pledged to help the U.S. stabilize war-torn Haiti. “There hasn’t been an African head of state joint session in 20 years, so I want to know why we couldn’t get that done,” Meeks said. DROP THE HOLD: Speaking of Haiti, dozens of senators and representatives urged Rep. MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas) and Sen. JIM RISCH (R-Idaho) today to drop their hold on State Department funding that would bolster Kenyan forces deploying to Haiti.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: F-35: The World's Most Advanced Fighter
The F-35 is the most advanced, connected fighter aircraft in the world – unmatched 5th Generation capabilities for the U.S. and allies around the globe. Learn more. | | | | | BEIJING SANCTIONS US WEAPONS FIRMS: The Chinese government imposed sanctions on 19 senior executives of 23 U.S. weapons manufacturers including Lockheed Martin Aeronautics, Raytheon Missile Systems and General Dynamics Ordnance, our PHELIM KINE writes in. Beijing calls the sanctions a reprisal for U.S. sanctions on Chinese firms linked to exports enabling Moscow’s war on Ukraine. Those were “illegal unilateral sanctions on a number of Chinese entities on the basis of the so-called Russia-related factors,” China’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement today. The sanctions are also a response to the U.S. continuing to “sell arms to China's Taiwan region,” the statement said. The sanctions freeze any of the firms’ assets in China and impose a visa ban on their senior executives. Lockheed Martin “closely adheres to U.S. government policy with regard to conducting business with foreign governments,” the company said in a statement. Raytheon and General Dynamics didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment. MURDER MYSTERY: Late Russian opposition leader ALEXEI NAVALNY’s chief of staff accused Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN of ordering Navalny’s death while speaking on POLITICO’s Power Play podcast. “It’ll take time for us to find out how exactly it happened and how exactly it was performed, but we have no doubt and it is not an issue of trust or versions, it’s a fact proven beyond reasonable doubt,” LEONID VOLKOV said. Volkov said the organization Navalny founded will continue to gather information on the attack, having investigated the methods and means deployed by Putin’s regime to target other political opponents in recent years. But U.S. intelligence agencies don’t believe Putin ordered Navalny’s death.
| | | — BAE Systems today appointed former National Reconnaissance Office Director BETTY SAPP to its board of directors. — Chad Prime Minister and opposition leader SUCCES MASRA resigned today after interim President MAHAMAT IDRISS DEBY was confirmed as a winner of the country’s presidential election.
| | — NAHAL TOOSI, POLITICO: How a post in Kenya could vault this former tech CEO into cabinet consideration — AZAM AHMED and MATTHIEU AIKINS, The New York Times: America’s monster — how the U.S. backed kidnapping, torture and murder in Afghanistan — VICTOIRE INGABIRE, Foreign Policy: Rwanda’s undemocratic election
| | — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: Where does the U.S. go from here -- Gaza: the human toll — Hudson Institute, 9 a.m.: The Senate perspective on the U.S.-China rivalry — Atlantic Council, 9:30 a.m.: Of course she can! Empowering women to rebuild Ukraine's economy — Foreign Policy and the International Committee of the Red Cross, 10 a.m.: Principles of humanity under pressure: the Geneva Conventions at 75 and the future of international humanitarian law — Atlantic Council, 10 a.m.: Oil, gas, and war: the effect of sanctions on the Russian energy industry — House Appropriations State, Foreign Operations and Related Programs Subcommittee, 10 a.m.: FY2025 request for the United Nations — House Foreign Affairs Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia Subcommittee, 10:30 a.m.: FY2025 budget request for Near Eastern Affairs — Henry L. Stimson Center, 10:30 a.m: Southern Asia's security landscape: views from rising analysts — Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies, 11 a.m.: Centering the North Caucasus in Russian affairs — Atlantic Council's Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, 1 p.m.: Discussion with ILDEFONSO GUAJARDO on a more efficient US-Mexico border and increased opportunities of economic investment, part of its "Mexico's Path Forward: Framing the Next Sexenio" series — Wilson Center's Brazil Institute, 2 p.m.: A discussion on "Bridging Histories, Forging Futures: Celebrating 200 Years of Brazil-U.S. Relations," focusing on the legacy of the transatlantic slave trade. — Atlantic Council's Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, 2:30 p.m.: Discussion with DIANA ALARCÓN on a more efficient US-Mexico border and increased opportunities of economic investment, part of its "Mexico's Path Forward: Framing the Next Sexenio" series — House Select Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party Committee, 2:30 p.m.: Roundtable – the future of Hong Kong Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, whose effect on this newsletter is little more than a “ripple.” We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who always makes a splash. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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