Science vs science

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May 28, 2024 View in browser   By Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Zi-Ann Lum Presented by MOWI Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Nick | Follow Politico Canada Thanks for reading the Ottawa Playbook. Let’s get to it. In today's edition: → The complex science of salmon farming that powers a fractious debate. → MPs brief up for the USMCA review that’ll be here before we know it. → MÉLANIE JOLY is en route to Sweden. Playbook peeks at her priority list. Talk of the town FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Canada's voice of big business is out with a Nanos poll that claps back at any federal politician who scores political points at the expense of corporations. Every major party leader takes shots at the C-Suite, though we couldn't help but think of PIERRE POILIEVRE's recent rhetoric as we flipped through the survey results. — Top finding: "Canadians who work for large businesses have pride in both their work and place of employment," Nanos reported. "They are six times more likely to have a negative view versus a positive view of politicians who criticize their employer." A message from MOWI: MOWI and the coastal safe salmon farming sector drive economic and job growth across Canada and in First Nations communities, while honouring their commitments to responsible, sustainable, environmental stewardship. Currently, government is considering the terms of licences salmon farmers need to continue operations. Any further uncertainty in the sector will mean more declines in production, job losses, and less interest from global investors. We need certainty. That means a minimum of a 6-year licence.   For your radar Fisheries Minister Diane Lebouthillier in Question Period earlier this month. | Spencer Colby, The Canadian Press SCIENCE VS. SCIENCE — Everywhere you turn in a heated debate over salmon farming on British Columbia's coast, stakeholders claim to be on the side of science. Fish farmers insist their industry, which has given hope to their communities in the form of economic prosperity, poses minimal risk to wild salmon. Their opponents are certain open-net pens are too big a risk to wild stocks and threatening other jobs in sportfishing and tourism. — The stakes: The future of the farms is on Cabinet's agenda. It's the latest flashpoint following a 2019 Liberal campaign promise to "transition from open net pen salmon farming in coastal waters to closed containment systems by 2025." Dozens of Cabinet-approved farm licences expire at the end of June. Fisheries Minister DIANE LEBOUTHILLIER has been clear on one point: Farms won't close in 2025. As Playbook has reported, the fate of the pens has torn open rifts between Liberals, First Nations and lobby groups in Ottawa. A government that claims to make evidence-based policy is caught in the middle: Whose science should they believe? — Here's a twist: Neither side gives rave reviews to the bureaucrats at Fisheries and Oceans Canada, the federal department known as DFO that regulates aquaculture and works to conserve wild salmon populations — an awkward conflict in the eyes of many. DFO is also a major gatherer of fish data that feeds policy makers. TONY ALLARD, the chair of Wild Salmon Forever & Wild First, penned a Hill Times op-ed this week that slammed the department as a captured regulator beholden to industry. — Another twist: A federal watchdog is investigating the department for "attempting to silence scientists through reprimands, to dissuade them from communicating with the media and the public about their research.” The probe, reported by the Globe and Mail earlier this month, followed a request from Allard. — Falling stocks: The decline of wild salmon in Canadian waters is likely due to a deadly combination of factors that include climate change and illegal fishing. Fish farms typically crack the list of active threats. But the data isn't always conclusive for either side of the debate. Stakeholders emphasize different words in the same findings. Two examples: → Data point 1: The Pacific Salmon Foundation's Salmon Health Program has published research on the impact of pathogens that could emanate from fish farms. Here’s the foundation on the state of play: "In the scientific community, there is … a strong belief that disease may be a significant factor in salmon mortality, but not enough is known about what disease agents might affect Pacific salmon in their natural habitats." → Data point 2: The commissioner of a public inquiry into Fraser River fish stocks, BRUCE COHEN, published a three-volume report in 2012. Wild salmon advocates point to this quote: "I therefore conclude that the potential harm posed to Fraser River sockeye salmon from salmon farms is serious or irreversible." Cohen also, though, acknowledged several other major forces at play. — Evidence versus probability: It's hard to find a smoking gun in salmon decline. KILIAN STEHFEST, a marine conservation specialist at the David Suzuki Foundation, tells Playbook that pathogens are likelier near active fish farms, and salmon are likelier to get sick if they swim near pathogens. Those facts, he says, are clear in the evidence. But observing the large-scale prevalence of infected wild salmon, or infected anything in something as vast as an ocean, is tremendously challenging on a wide scale. That's why scientists rely on modeling, Stehfest says. Which comes with its own challenges: "It's very human to want a clear answer. We want science to tell us this is right, this is wrong, this is the truth, or these are the facts," he says. "When science isn't able to give you that, and you're dealing with that more murky concept of probabilities and risk, it's really hard to have that conversation." — Good luck, Cabinet: In this science versus science slugfest, almost no outcome will satisfy everybody — or even anybody. See you at the next flashpoint. ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR TRADE TALKS — STEVE VERHEUL will download his USMCA brain to the House international trade committee this afternoon. Verheul, Canada's top negotiator on the revamped NAFTA and a principal at GT and Company, gave Playbook a sneak peek at his testimony. — Mark your calendars: The USMCA review slated to kick in on Canada Day in 2026 is “shaping up to be a potentially critical turning point” in Canada-U.S. trade relations, Verheul says. His message to MPs: Prepare for multiple scenarios. → On one hand: “How the review turns out could go a long way in determining if we continue down the path towards a more integrated North American market, or whether the U.S. will go further down the track of going it alone,” Verheul says. → On the other: “We have worrying signs coming out of the U.S. that they may want to use the review to revisit the outcomes of key dispute settlement decisions that they lost on autos rules of origin and on dairy. If they try to reverse these decisions, it will undermine not only confidence in the dispute settlement process, but also in the agreement overall.” — Common ground: Verheul says the three countries would be smart to start with shared priorities, which they have discussed. On that list: “unfairly traded imports from China in sensitive areas like electric vehicles, batteries, critical minerals; security concerns (national, economic, energy, supply chains, etc.); and measures to address climate change.”   A message from MOWI:   ROAD TO NATO SUMMIT — Arctic diplomacy is high on Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY’s priority list as she heads to Stockholm today at the invitation of her Swedish counterpart, TOBIAS BILLSTRÖM. — Also on the agenda: Frank talk on NATO issues, political-level stuff. National Defense Minister BILL BLAIR is point-person on procurement and NATO’s 2 percent target, an issue recently brought to the fore by U.S. senators — though was that ever not a thing? — Pre-NATO fika: Joly and Billström have plans for a joint press conference Wednesday. The Stockholm stop comes ahead of an informal meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Prague at the end of the week, a location picked to commemorate Czechia’s 25th anniversary as a member of the alliance. JUST BARELY — Public Safety Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC hit a legislated deadline for handing over to the House a National Security and Intelligence Review Agency report on foreign political interference. — Pesky schedules: NSIRA originally delivered a classified report on the past two federal elections to the prime minister and three Cabinet ministers on March 5. The final version landed on the PM's desk April 26. The government had to deliver it to parliamentarians within 15 sitting days — that is, by Monday. → Jargon alert: LeBlanc pulled off a "back door" tabling, quietly depositing the document with the House clerk yesterday instead of announcing it from his seat — a maneuver that dates to 1955. — The headline: NSIRA's 38-page report, which should appear online today, flagged concerns about intelligence and information sharing at the federal level that echo Commissioner MARIE-JOSÉE HOGUE's observations at an ongoing public inquiry. "The security and intelligence community is of the consensus view that political foreign interference is a significant threat to Canada, and that the [People's Republic of China] is a major perpetrator of this threat at all levels of government," NSIRA reported. Then came the bad news: "There were significant disagreements between constituent components of that community, both within and across organizations, as to whether, when, and how to share what they knew." → Further reading: CSIS and Trudeau's adviser clashed on foreign interference threat during 2021, from CAT TUNNEY at CBC News. Where the leaders are — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will chair the Cabinet meeting at 10 a.m. QP is also on his itinerary. — Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Ottawa. At 9 a.m,, Freeland will lead her weekly update on the government’s economic plan. Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE and Treasury Board President ANITA ANAND will also participate. — NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH will attend QP. — Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE has not released his schedule. — Green Party Leader ELIZABETH MAY will participate in Parliament virtually. MEDIA ROOM Former President Donald Trump departs after speaking during a campaign event at the Waukesha County Expo Center, on May 1, 2024 in Waukesha, Wisconsin. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO — “It’s not just guilty or not guilty.” POLITICO’s ERICA ORDEN outlines all the possible outcomes of the Trump trial. — ROBERT BENZIE and ROB FERGUSON of the Toronto Star scoop news that Ontario Premier DOUG FORD is considering an early election call before the scheduled 2026 vote over concerns about cuts a future federal Conservative government might impose. — The Narwhal's CARL MEYER has the paper trail behind an oil sands lobby group's request to skip a federal environmental assessment. Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT was blunt in an interview: "We can’t create a pathway for Pathways that would circumvent our laws." — DARREN MAJOR of CBC News reports on a Conservative motion to oust GREG FERGUS as Speaker of the House. — ANJA KARADEGLIJA of The Canadian Press reports that Ottawa is developing an artificial intelligence strategy for federal government operations. — Columnist and Indigenous studies professor NIIGAAN SINCLAIR was on CBC’s “The Sunday Magazine” to discuss “Wînipêk,” a collection of essays from “‘ground zero’ of Canada's future.” A message from MOWI: True reconciliation in Canada must include opportunities for shared economic prosperity and advancement with First Nations. Government can support advancing reconciliation with a regulatory environment that supports First Nations opportunities and reduces Canada’s carbon footprint. A draft transition plan that enables the salmon farming sector to thrive, does both. We cannot overstate the costs to local communities, and the provincial and national economies, if a new transition plan draft creates questions about our long-term operations. MOWI’s coastal safe salmon farming contributes over $955 million in economic activity, including more than 2,698 Canadian jobs. MOWI’s impact reaches beyond the communities where we create jobs or our financial contributions to the economy. Salmon farming provides Canadians and their families with high-quality, affordable, healthy, and sustainable choices at grocery stores and restaurants across the country. We need the certainty of a minimum 6-year extension to continue to serve our families, and yours.   PROZONE Don’t miss our latest newsletter for Pro subscribers: USMCA review: ‘Priority one through 10.’  In other news for Pros:  — Biden’s got a plan to protect science from Trump. — Climate change forcing changes to transportation industry, PETE BUTTIGIEG says. — NATO allies seek clarity on Stoltenberg's plan for Ukraine. PLAYBOOKERS Birthdays: JOHN TORY, former mayor of Toronto, is 70 today. Celebrate your day with the Playbook community. Send us the details. We’ll let everyone know. Noted: THE HUB’s new website. Spotted: Liberal MP ROB OLIPHANT, marking 40 years since he was ordained as a United Church minister … Liberal MP JOHN ALDAG, formally announcing his resignation as MP for Cloverdale-Langley City, effective Friday. (Aldag is jumping ship to the B.C. NDP.) A lot of 45 Marvel comic books, including a run of NICK FURY, up for bids on GCSurplus. Asking price C$20.50. Media mentions: Postmedia announced a deal to sell the Winnipeg Sun, the Graphic Leader and Kenora Miner & News newspapers to the Klein Group Ltd. KEVIN KLEIN was once a Progressive Conservative Cabinet minister and Winnipeg city councilor. Klein is also a former publisher of the Sun. Movers and shakers: Pollster and podcaster DAVID HERLE announced on the latest "Curse of Politics" episode that he's joining show panelist KORY TENEYCKE's shop at Rubicon Strategies. Herle's new titleL principal. ON THE HILL → Find House committees here. → Keep track of Senate committees here. 9 a.m. Grand Chief CATHY MERRICK of the Assembly of Manitoba Chiefs will be at the Senate committee on Indigenous Peoples to help inform its study of the implementation of the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act. 9 a.m. The Senate national finance committee will study Bill C-69 with input from senior department officials. 9 a.m. The Senate transport committee is also focused on Bill C-69. 9:30 a.m. The Senate rules and procedure committee will discuss committee scheduling. 10 a.m. Speaker GREG FERGUS and other senior officials will be at the House committee on procedure as MPs review parliament’s workplace harassment and violence prevention policy. 11 a.m. The House science and research committee will welcome officials from the National Research Council of Canada and the Polar Environment Atmospheric Research Laboratory as it studies climate change and Canada’s Arctic. 3:30 p.m. Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT will be at the House environment committee to take questions on Main Estimates. 3:30 p.m. The House procedure meeting will gather to debate the need to invite Public Safety Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC to respond to a Globe story that says the federal government is refusing to turn over all Cabinet documents on foreign interference to a public inquiry. 3:30 p.m. The House international trade committee will spend its first 30 minutes in camera working on a report on free trade negotiations between Canada and Ecuador. Six witnesses will speak to the 2026 USMCA review. 6:30 p.m. The Senate energy, environment and natural resources committee is also studying Bill C-69. TRIVIA Monday’s answer: After Parliament burned down in 1916, the House of Commons relied on a wooden mace until a permanent replacement could be forged out of sterling silver and gold. On Feb. 3 each year the wooden mace returns to service to commemorate the anniversary of the fire. Props to KEVIN BOSCH, ROSS LECLAIR, MARCEL MARCOTTE, NANCI WAUGH, MATTHEW DUBE, BOB GORDON, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, LAURA JARVIS, DARRYL DAMUDE, J.D.M. STEWART, DARREN MAJOR and JENN KEAY.  The Dionne quintuplets in Toronto on May 22, 1939. | AP Today’s question: The Dionne quintuplets were born on this day 90 years ago. Who arrived first? Answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com . Writing Wednesday’s Ottawa Playbook: ZI-ANN LUM.  Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.   Follow us on Twitter Nick Taylor-Vaisey @TaylorVaisey Sue Allan @susan_allan Kyle Duggan @Kyle_Duggan Zi-Ann Lum @ziannlum POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters Follow us

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