Senate becomes ground zero for border politics

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May 20, 2024 View in browser   By Burgess Everett Presented by  With assists from POLITICO’s Congress team Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer plans to hold a second vote on the bipartisan border deal on Thursday, despite its projected failure. | AP BORDER BATTLE PT. 2 It’s pretty rare these days for the Senate to vote on a bill as obviously doomed as the border deal negotiated over the winter. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer announced a second vote on it will take place Thursday anyway, for a simple reason: The politics around it have shifted. Donald Trump is now definitively the presumptive nominee, Republicans are hammering the most vulnerable Democratic senator with immigration ads and Democrats are eager to create a fresh contrast with the GOP — and line up a possible precursor to more executive action by President Joe Biden if the vote fails. The bill “is much needed. I think that we need to restore order,” said Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), who is up for reelection in a swing state this fall. “Republicans negotiated a bill with Democrats, they only backed off when Donald Trump instructed them to because he wanted an issue to run on and didn’t want it to be fixed. And that is irresponsible.” Thursday’s vote is expected to be similar to the February roll call, with a handful of defections possible in each party (Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) said he’s a “big no,” for example). The GOP already rejected it once after Trump turned on the legislation, and there’s a recess scheduled for next week — not exactly a sign there’s much confidence it will get 60 votes to advance. The messaging: GOP Sens. “Cruz, Scott and every other Republican Senate candidate lost their message on the border when they came out against a border security bill written by members of their own party and backed by border patrol agents,” said David Bergstein, a spokesperson for Democrats’ campaign arm. “It will be a major line of attack against their candidates — the ads write themselves.” Republicans are not engaging with Democratic entreaties to open up debate on the bill and offer amendments. They still see immigration as a winning issue for their party that they can hammer Democrats on heading into November, but they aren’t particularly eager to revisit the months-long border talks and their quick death at the hand of Trump. Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) dismissed the vote as “all political.” “Most people see this for what it is: And that is sort of a naked attempt by the Democrats to get political cover on an issue that is a huge political liability for all of the folks that are running this year,” said Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.). “This is not a serious attempt to have a debate on this.” If you are a Democrat running in a tough state, a vote for asylum and parole reforms negotiated with Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) is a good tactic; you can say you supported some of the strongest border policies in decades. It’s an approach informed by Sen. Maggie Hassan’s (D-N.H.) strategy last cycle, when she surprised Democrats with a tough-on-border approach that was mocked by Republicans. She ended up winning reelection handily (some Democrats told us they think she’s a good model for how to win in swing states these days). National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesperson Mike Berg said that “no voter is going to believe Democrats are now the party of border security after watching their actions on the issue for the last decade.” It’ll take until November to see whether any of the border votes actually move the needle. In the interim, GOP opposition to the bill helps create a contrast on an issue which Democrats have been struggling with this cycle. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), said putting the bill on the floor is the “right thing to do.” “The same people who’ve been down to the border and want to fix the border voted against fixing the border when we had a chance,” said Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) in an interview last week. “That was a good bill, we should have passed it. And it’s unfortunate that people did it for political reasons; look, my opponent didn’t even read the bill and said he would have voted against it.” A hypothetical: If the bill somehow cleared the Senate, Speaker Mike Johnson has already said (again) that it's dead on arrival in the House. Of course, his chamber has already passed their preferred border bill: H.R. 2. Maybe they could go to conference! — Burgess Everett, Ursula Perano and Anthony Adragna    A message from American Beverage: America’s leading beverage companies – The Coca-Cola Company, Keurig Dr Pepper and PepsiCo – are bringing you more choices with less sugar. From sparkling, flavored and bottled waters to zero-sugar sodas, sports drinks, juices and teas, Americans have more options than ever. In fact, nearly 60% of beverages sold today have zero sugar. Families are looking for more choices to support their efforts to find balance and America’s beverage companies are delivering. Explore choices at BalanceUS.org.   GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Monday, May 20, where we can smell the Memorial Day BBQs already. TROUBLE ON GARLAND CONTEMPT House GOP leadership is seeing early signs of pushback as they weigh a vote to hold Attorney General Merrick Garland in contempt of Congress. Republican leadership staff conducted a temperature check during a Friday meeting with senior GOP staffers, who expressed some skepticism and reservations, three people familiar with the meeting told us. The contempt resolutions aren’t expected to come up this week on the floor, but that doesn’t mean the door is closed. Two of the people familiar with Friday’s meeting added that it was too early to know if a Garland resolution could squeak by the GOP’s incredibly narrow majority. Complicating the whip count: Biden-district Republicans — as well as GOP lawmakers from the conference’s governing wing — have largely not weighed in yet. As we reported late last week, at least one is openly skeptical, and there’s a broader frustration within the conference after the Oversight Committee’s vote went off the rails on Thursday night. — Jordain Carney and Olivia Beavers   A message from American Beverage:   ICC AND DEMS: IT’S COMPLICATED  Both congressional Democratic leaders slammed the International Criminal Court’s plan to seek arrest warrants for top Israel officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — but they were noncommittal on a legislative response. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said in a statement that the arrest warrants were “shameful and unserious,” seconding President Joe Biden’s condemnation of the warrants. Schumer called the ICC decision “reprehensible” and added he wasn’t surprised because “for decades and decades the ICC has shown it harbors deep biases against Israel.” But neither Democrat opened the door to placing sanctions on the ICC, as Speaker Mike Johnson floated earlier Monday. That could open up yet another complicated vote for the left on Israel, as some Democratic lawmakers have already made it clear they’re furious with the ICC and others have hailed the organization’s move. Republicans have almost unanimously condemned the ICC’s decision. “If Netanyahu comes to address Congress, I would be more than glad to show the ICC the way to the House floor to issue that warrant,” Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wis.) wrote on X. “Ditto for Hamas leader.” — Nicholas Wu and Burgess Everett    A message from American Beverage: Families are looking for more choices and information to support their efforts to find balance in their diet. That’s why America’s beverage companies are now offering more than 600 brands with less sugar or no sugar at all, and our actions are making a real difference. Our commitment to supporting your efforts to find balance includes: · Putting clear calorie labels on the front of every bottle, can and pack. · Reminding consumers to think about balance with signs on coolers and displays in store. · Innovating products to offer more choices with less sugar or no sugar at all. · Working with local organizations across the country to build awareness of the many choices available – and making zero-sugar beverages more available in communities where it’s needed most. Learn more at BalanceUS.org   MANCHIN’S WORRY As we reported this morning, Democratic senators and Senate hopefuls are keeping their distance from the Biden administration on a handful of key issues. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) is an old hand at this, and he has some advice. “They’ve just got to be themselves. Be themselves. Jon Tester’s all Montana,” Manchin said in an interview. “The problem is having a president [where] you don’t agree with their policy. If you agree with the policy, I wouldn’t just now go against them if you’ve always been for them.” Despite his retirement all but handing Republicans a seat in his deep-red state during a tough cycle for Democrats, Manchin said his primary worry isn’t that his party loses the chamber come November. He’s much more concerned about his Senate colleagues tanking the filibuster once he leaves, since many of his allies who want to keep the 60-vote threshold intact have “vanished” over the last four years. “I’m more worried about that,” Manchin said. “Whoever controls the Senate, I pray to God there’s a few senators on either side that say I will basically protect the filibuster … that’s the only thing that keeps us together. That’s important to me.” — Burgess Everett   THE GOLD STANDARD OF POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. The Pro platform dives deeper into critical and quickly evolving sectors and industries—finance, defense, technology, healthcare, energy—equipping policymakers and those who shape legislation and regulation with essential news and intelligence from the world’s best politics and policy journalists. Our newsroom is deeper, more experienced, and better sourced than any other—with teams embedded in the world’s most active legislative and regulatory power centers. From Brussels to Washington, New York to London, Sacramento to Paris, we bring subscribers inside the conversations that determine policy outcomes and the future of industries, providing insight that cannot be found anywhere else. Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY.     HUDDLE HOTDISH Sen. Mike Rounds’ office asked for a correction in Gov. Kristi Noem’s book. Former Rep. Bob Barr has a new job at the NRA. QUICK LINKS  Who is Paul Bondar, running to unseat Tom Cole? We found him, from KFOR’s Spencer Humphrey Henry Cuellar courted Mexican elites; prosecutors say one helped him set up bribery scheme from the San Antonio Express-News’ Jason Buch TRANSITIONS  Kevin Wu is now senior legislative assistant at the Labor Department’s Office of Congressional and Intergovernmental Affairs. He most recently was domestic policy adviser for Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.). George Alderman is joining Rep. Mike Waltz’s (R-Fla.) office as press secretary. He most recently was an associate at Targeted Victory. Carolyn Olortegui is now legislative assistant for Rep. Joe Courtney (D-Conn.). She previously was HELP legislative correspondent for Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.). Jen Becker-Pollet is now clerk for the Senate Appropriations Financial Services General Government Subcommittee. She previously was a professional staff member for the Energy and Water subcommittee. Allison Barry is now a special adviser in the Labor Department’s Office of Public Affairs. She previously was a special assistant in the Education Department’s Office of Communications and Outreach.   LISTEN TO POLITICO'S ENERGY PODCAST: Check out our daily five-minute brief on the latest energy and environmental politics and policy news. Don't miss out on the must-know stories, candid insights, and analysis from POLITICO's energy team. Listen today.     TOMORROW IN CONGRESS The House and Senate are in session.. TUESDAY AROUND THE HILL At 10 a.m., Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) will lead a press conference on reproductive care on the Senate swamp. At noon on the Senate swamp, Durbin and Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) will hold a press conference on gun violence. TRIVIA FRIDAY’S ANSWER: Bruce Linderman was the first to correctly guess that John F. Kennedy was the president who had a living grandparent while in office. TODAY’S QUESTION, from Bruce: Who was the first president to be born in the United States? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Inside Congress. Send your answers to insidecongress@politico.com. GET INSIDE CONGRESS emailed to your phone each evening.   Follow us

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