Trump, the oil barons and the $1B question

Your guide to the political forces shaping the energy transformation

May 10, 2024 View in browser   By Arianna Skibell Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump on May 1, 2024 in Waukesha, Wisconsin. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO Donald Trump had a bold request for oil executives last month: Donate $1 billion to help me return to the White House. Over dinner at Trump’s Palm Beach resort Mar-a-Lago, the former president put it plainly, according to multiple news reports: While requesting the eye-popping campaign cash infusion, he vowed to bring pro-business, anti-regulatory policies back to Washington. Though the dollar amount, first reported by The Washington Post, was unusual in its blunt specificity, it most likely didn’t violate any laws, campaign finance experts told POLITICO’s Ben Lefebvre. Unless Trump asked for a certain amount of money to be deposited in exchange for a specific policy goal, there’s little chance it would violate bribery laws as the Supreme Court now interprets them, legal expert Meredith McGehee told Ben. Asked to comment on all this, the Trump campaign issued a statement criticizing what it called President Joe Biden’s support from “environmental extremists.” Biden’s campaign told the Post: “Donald Trump is selling out working families to Big Oil for campaign checks. It’s that simple.” The real question, however, is whether oil giants will bite. While industry executives have reason to be confident Trump would try to roll back Biden’s green agenda — Trump has pledged to scrap policies boosting electric vehicles and wind energy — many have expressed fears that a second term for the GOP front-runner would also mean a return to his volatile international relations and unpredictable management style. Industry leaders also worry Trump may be too distracted by his legal troubles to enact a swift reversal of Biden’s climate policies, they told Ben this week. And they fear a second Trump administration wouldn’t attract staff skillful enough to roll back Biden’s regulations or craft new ones that favor the industry. Still, as low-carbon technology threatens the fossil fuel industry's bottom line, an unapologetic oil booster like Trump may be its safest bet. Ben reported Wednesday that oil industry leaders are taking steps to help Trump help them, namely by drawing up ready-to-sign executive orders aimed at pushing natural gas exports, boosting drilling and increasing offshore oil leases. On the flip side, it’s not as though the industry has suffered much under the Biden administration. Last year, the country produced more oil than any country ever has. Energy giants ExxonMobil and Chevron reported their largest annual profits in a decade last year. So the decision facing the executives is how eagerly to hop on the Trump train — and what the fare should be.   Thank goodness it's Friday — thank you for tuning in to POLITICO's Power Switch. I'm your host, Arianna Skibell. Power Switch is brought to you by the journalists behind E&E News and POLITICO Energy. Send your tips, comments, questions to askibell@eenews.net.   THE GOLD STANDARD OF ENERGY POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what's next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. The Pro platform dives deeper into critical and quickly evolving sectors and industries, like energy, equipping policymakers and those who shape legislation and regulation with essential news and intelligence from the world's best politics and policy journalists. Our newsroom is deeper, more experienced, and better sourced than any other. Our energy reporting team—including Ben Lefebvre, Alex Guillen and Kelsey Tamborrino—is embedded with the market-moving legislative committees and agencies in Washington and across states, delivering unparalleled coverage of energy policy and the energy industry. We bring subscribers inside the conversations that determine policy outcomes and the future of industries, providing insight that cannot be found anywhere else. Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY.   Listen to today’s POLITICO Energy podcast Today in POLITICO Energy’s podcast: Hear directly from Ben as he breaks down why oil executives are pre-writing executive orders for Trump to sign if he wins the election, why that's unusual and what else they plan to do. Power Centers Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, center, Nevada Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D), right, drive rail spikes into a symbolic rail in Las Vegas on April 22 to celebrate the start of construction on a high-speed rail line. | Ty ONeil/AP A jump-start for high-speed rail The Biden administration is investing $3 billion to build the country’s first truly high-speed rail line. Officials hope the $12 billion project will jump-start an industry that could pull drivers out of their cars and reduce planet-warming pollution, writes Mike Lee. Florida-based company Brightline is developing both the rail line — which will run fully electric trains from Las Vegas to Southern California — as well as a planned resort and mixed-use development along the way. A Midwestern energy dilemma The Midwest’s electric grid operator is set to greenlight the country’s largest-ever investment in new power lines to help states and utilities transition to clean energy, but it may not be enough, writes Jeffrey Tomich. Experts say that the roughly $20 billion effort, while unprecedented, may be half of what’s needed to ensure the region has enough electricity to meet demand in extreme weather. In Other News It's like rain on your wedding day: Elon Musk has pledged to grow the Tesla supercharger business he just decimated. The taxman cometh: Biden is set to hit Chinese electric vehicles and strategic sectors with tariffs.   LISTEN TO POLITICO'S ENERGY PODCAST: Check out our daily five-minute brief on the latest energy and environmental politics and policy news. Don't miss out on the must-know stories, candid insights, and analysis from POLITICO's energy team. Listen today.   Subscriber Zone A showcase of some of our best subscriber content. A petroleum tanker is seen off the Texas coast in this aerial view from a drone. | Tom Pennington/Getty Images A coalition of 20 environmental groups is calling on the Biden administration to pause reviews and approvals of proposed deepwater oil export facilities. Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio plans to back a Congressional Review Act resolution to overturn the Biden administration’s rules implementing the electric vehicle tax credit. A federal judge has scrapped a lawsuit launched by California youth to hold the Environmental Protection Agency accountable for planet-warming emissions. That's it for today, folks. Thanks for reading, and have a great weekend!   Follow us on Twitter Arianna Skibell @ariannaskibell   Follow us

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