| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg | |  Protesters brandishing a European Union flag brace as they are sprayed by a water cannon during clashes with riot police near the Georgian parliament in Tbilisi on March 7, 2023. | AFP via Getty Images | With help from Alex Ward Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric Top U.S. officials have warned that the Georgian “foreign agent” bill approved today will undermine democracy. But experts say there’s more Washington could be doing to help — and that the U.S. is somewhat to blame for the country's unrest. Over the past week, tens of thousands of protesters have taken to the streets and tried to block lawmakers from passing the legislation, which will brand hundreds of NGOs and media outlets as foreign agents. It’s been an ugly moment for Georgia’s government, with brawls breaking out in the assembly chamber and a senior lawmaker being assaulted. The bill, dubbed a “Russia-style” foreign agent law by critics, gained majority support from the governing Georgian Dream party. The president’s veto is expected to be overridden by a simple majority, paving the way for the legislation to go into effect in the coming weeks. Countries bordering Russia could increasingly cozy up to the Kremlin if the war continues to shift in Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN’s favor, three experts told NatSec Daily. U.S. lawmakers who blocked aid to Ukraine for months are partially responsible for what’s going on in Georgia, political scientist FRANCIS FUKUYAMA told NatSec Daily. Countries near Russia have begun openly adopting pro-Kremlin sentiments and appear to care less about maintaining ties to the West, he added. “Every peripheral country around Russia has been watching Ukraine very, very closely,” Fukuyama said. “As soon as they perceive that momentum shifting … that frees them to shift their policy in a much more pro-Russian direction.” Minutes ago, a bipartisan group of senators, led by JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.) and JIM RISCH (R-Idaho), released a statement calling today “a dark day for Georgian democracy” and threatening to take action against Georgian politicians. At this moment, many Georgian analysts think the Dream believes Russia will win the war. That has caused the party to act more openly and aggressively against the will of the vast majority, announcing a foreign policy shift toward Moscow “along with Soviet-style repressions,” the Atlantic Council’s ETO BUZIASHVILI told NatSec Daily. Despite strong words from national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN and other top U.S. officials, Georgia and surrounding countries aren’t afraid of the Western reaction, Fukuyama said. And this will only become more evident if Russia keeps its momentum going. The U.S. has limited leverage over Georgia, as talks with Tbilisi lately have focused on integration with the European Union rather than joining NATO. Experts NatSec Daily spoke to agreed on one course of action to stop the lawmakers from enacting the foreign agents bill: Carefully targeted sanctions. Sanctions that make it difficult for Georgians to travel outside of their country could be very effective, two of the experts said, since many wealthy politicians have children in European schools or second homes there. Some senior people in the Georgian political-business elite with ties to Georgian Dream founder BIDZINA IVANISHVILI are worried about Western sanctions, Carnegie Europe’s THOMAS DE WAAL told NatSec Daily. Former Georgian Prosecutor General OTAR PARTSKHALADZE was sanctioned by the U.S. last year for his close ties with Russia, and similar actions “could be a serious deterrent,” De Waal said. U.S. sanctions are particularly effective in Europe, De Waal added, because of the EU’s unanimity principle, which requires all member states to agree to a policy. Any sanctions proposal by the EU would be vetoed by Hungarian Prime Minister VIKTOR ORBÁN, who is close with the Georgian government. Speaking to reporters, White House Press Secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE didn’t preview any actions the U.S. might take, but said if the legislation passes, it would “compel us to fundamentally reassess our relationship with Georgia.” Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs JAMES O’BRIEN is currently in Georgia, where he spoke to the prime minister and others. While no policy changes have been made, he said that if the bill is passed, “we will see restrictions coming from the United States” that affect the finances or travel of individuals responsible.
| | BLINKEN’S UKRAINE TRIP: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN arrived in Kyiv today seeking to reassure Ukraine of continuing American support, as Russia escalates its offensive in the northeast of the country. Before jamming out, Blinken met with Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, during which the two discussed battlefield updates, the latest U.S. military assistance provided to the country and long-term security arrangements, State Department spokesperson MATTHEW MILLER said in a statement. He’ll also meet with Prime Minister DENYS SHMYHAL and Foreign Minister DMYTRO KULEBA. Blinken’s two-day trip — his fourth to Ukraine since the war broke out — comes as some 6,000 residents have fled their homes in Ukraine's northeastern region of Kharkiv amid an intense Russian advance. Ukraine needs two Patriot missile defense batteries as soon as possible to protect Kharkiv, Zelenskyy told Blinken. The wave of displacements from Vovchansk, just five miles from the Russian border, and surrounding areas reminds residents of the early days of the invasion in February 2022. Except now, the Russian attacks are even worse, the evacuees told The Washington Post’s ISABELLE KHURSHUDYAN and SERHII KOROLCHUK. The SecState’s trip also coincides with Russia’s new defense minister, economist ANDREI BELOUSOV, starting his job, as loyal NatSec Daily readers know. Today, Belousov said Russia’s main goal is to win while minimizing the loss of troops and fight more efficiently: “The enemy is learning quickly. The situation related to the use of new technologies changes literally every week. And here we need not just to learn, we need to preempt the enemy,” he said, per Reuters’ MARK TREVELYAN and LUCY PAPACHRISTOU. CEASE-FIRE TALK SETBACK: A top Qatari official said Israel’s ongoing military operation in the southern Gazan city of Rafah has set cease-fire negotiations “backward,” Al Jazeera reports. “Especially in the past few weeks, we have seen some momentum building but unfortunately things didn’t move in the right direction and right now we are on a status of almost a stalemate,” Prime Minister SHEIKH MOHAMMED BIN ABDULRAHMAN BIN JASSIM AL THANI told the Qatar Economic Forum in Doha today. The blunt remarks from Qatar, one of the countries mediating the negotiations that would secure the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas, are a foreboding sign as Israel seemingly prepares for a full-scale invasion of Rafah. The United Nations estimates that more than 500,000 people have been displaced in recent days due to fighting in northern and southern Gaza, The Associated Press reports. Meanwhile, current and former Israeli military officers are becoming more vocal in their criticism of Israel’s military operation, complaining that their troops are being forced to fight in areas where Hamas militants have reappeared, The New York Times’ DAMIEN CAVE and ADAM RASGON report. Also, natsec adviser Sullivan is headed to Saudi Arabia and Israel this weekend, a senior administration official told our own ALEX WARD. Sullivan previously postponed a trip to Saudi Arabia after falling down the stairs and cracking a rib. He is traveling at a tense time in the region, as the U.S. aims to stop a full-scale Israeli invasion of Rafah. Read: The Biden administration doesn’t think Israel can fully win in Gaza by Alex NIGER LEADER SPILLS: Threats made by MOLLY PHEE, State’s top official for African affairs, during a trip to Niger this spring caused the U.S.-Niger relationship to rupture, Prime Minister ALI MAHAMAN LAMINE ZEINE told The Washington Post’s RACHEL CHASON. U.S. officials were in the country for last-ditch negotiations on whether U.S. troops would be allowed to remain there. But the leader perceived the officials as trying to dictate which countries its West African ally could partner with. The U.S. officials also failed to justify U.S. troop presence in Niger, Zeine said, which is now slated to end in the coming months. After the military coup in Niger last year, the U.S. froze security support required (by law) and paused counterterrorism efforts in the country. Zeine viewed that as the U.S. refusing to help its ally. “The Americans stayed on our soil, doing nothing while the terrorists killed people and burned towns,” Zeine said. “It is not a sign of friendship to come on our soil but let the terrorists attack us. We have seen what the United States will do to defend its allies, because we have seen Ukraine and Israel.” In response, a U.S. official told the Post that the message “was a coordinated U.S. government position, delivered in a professional manner, in response to valid concerns about developments in Niger.” IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: What matters to us is protecting what matters most.
Lockheed Martin’s mission is to protect the ones who serve in their service to the nation. It’s why we lead the way in developing new defense tech and pushing the capabilities of what’s possible to bring security to an unsecure world. Learn more. | | | | | HACKING THE MILITARY: A top U.S. official warned today of increasing cyber threats from China, flagging that Beijing is capable of impacting American military efforts, Reuters’ MICHAEL HOLDEN and JAMES PEARSON report. Speaking at a security conference in England, National Cyber Director HARRY COKER said Chinese military hackers were going around U.S. cyber defenses and targeting U.S. interests at an “unprecedented scale.” “In a crisis or conflict scenario, China could use their pre-positioned cyber capabilities to wreak havoc in civilian infrastructure and deter U.S. military action,” he told the conference. Cybersecurity relating to China has been top of mind for U.S. officials this year. In February, Washington and allies issued a joint warning that the Chinese state-sponsored hacking crew Volt Typhoon launched attacks on U.S. communications, water and transportation infrastructure. Meanwhile, China has routinely denied state-backed hacking.
| | | | THE GOLD STANDARD OF DEFENSE POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. The Pro platform dives deeper into critical and quickly evolving sectors and industries, like defense, equipping policymakers and those who shape legislation and regulation with essential news and intelligence from the world’s best politics and policy journalists.
Our newsroom is deeper, more experienced, and better sourced than any other. Our defense reporting team—including Lara Seligman, Joe Gould, Paul McCleary, Connor O’Brien and Lee Hudson—is embedded with the market-moving legislative committees and agencies in Washington and across states, delivering unparalleled coverage of defense policy and the defense industry. We bring subscribers inside the conversations that determine policy outcomes and the future of industries, providing insight that cannot be found anywhere else. Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY. | | | | | | | | NATO SUMMIT PREP: There are “glaring deficiencies that must be frankly and openly addressed” before the NATO summit in July, two top Republicans said in a letter to Biden, obtained by our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!). Senate Foreign Relations Committee ranking member Risch and fellow member Sen. PETE RICKETTS (R-Neb.) called for Washington to push members to increase their defense spending beyond the 2 percent of GDP goal and to “make binding commitments to increase defense industrial capacity.” Risch and Ricketts call for an integrated air defense plan in the wake of a Russian missile transiting NATO airspace; a new emphasis on nuclear deterrence; and a greater focus on China, with contingency plans on the U.S. response to a crisis in the Pacific. They also want a fresh strategy to build up and integrate Ukraine’s armed forces and security guarantees for Kyiv.
| | | |   | | | | | ISRAEL VOTE TO WATCH: Top House Republicans have a chance to spotlight Democratic divides over Israel this week with a bill that will force lawmakers to take a position on the Biden administration’s weapons pause to the ally, our own KATHERINE TULLY-MCMANUS reports. The vote is expected to split Democrats, exposing divisions between those who fully back Israel’s actions in Gaza, and those who support a ceasefire and oppose further military aid to Israel. The measure calls on the Biden administration to “proceed quickly” with previously green-lit arms transfers and requires the administration to “utilize all congressionally appropriated funds for security assistance for Israel as Congress intended.” The measure has substantive provisions limiting what can be done with funds appropriated by Congress to the Pentagon and State Department. GOP members are expected to widely support the condemnation of the Biden administration’s weapons pause.
| | | | JOIN 5/22 FOR A TALK ON THE FUTURE OF TAXATION: With Trump-era tax breaks set to expire in 2025, whoever wins control of Congress, and the White House will have the ability to revamp the tax code and with it reshape the landscape for business and social policy. Join POLITICO on May 22 for an exploration of what is at stake in the November elections with our panel dissecting the ways presidential candidates and congressional leaders are proposing to reshape our tax rates and incentives. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | SHHH, WE’RE EXERCISING: The U.S. and Taiwan conducted joint naval drills in the Pacific last month — which, officially, did not happen, Reuters reports. One person familiar told the outlet that “multiple military assets” were involved, while a second person said the drills were dubbed “unplanned sea encounters,” as both sides claimed the exercises were due to coincidental encounters. “It's like I am dining in this restaurant and you also happen to be here,” the person said. "Then it looks like I am only sharing the same table with someone.” U.S military engagement with Taiwan is often kept low-key to avoid igniting tensions with China, which claims the island nation as its own territory. About half a dozen navy ships from both sides, including frigates and supply and support vessels, participated in the days-long exercises, one of the people said. The navies practiced operations such as communications, refueling and resupply.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Prepared for tomorrow. Ready for today.
Building a better world means developing the next generation of defense tech. We’re redefining what it means to be ready, so tomorrow’s challenges can be overcome today. Learn more. | | | | | — Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN tapped ousted security chief NIKOLAI PATRUSHEV to serve as his aide. Also in Putin’s continued shakeup, Russian authorities arrested Lt. Gen. YURI KUZNETSOV, a high-ranking lieutenant general responsible for personnel matters.
| | — MARLENE LARUELLE, Foreign Affairs: A new recruiting ground for ISIS — RHIANNON NEILSEN, War on the Rocks: File not found: Russia is hacking evidence of its war crimes — International Taskforce on Ukraine’s Security and Euro-Atlantic Integration: Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic future: Paving the path to peace and security
| | — Hudson Institute's China Center, 8:30 a.m.: The pernicious Impact of China's anti-secession law with Sen. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.) and former Secretary of State MIKE POMPEO — Senate Appropriations Defense Subcommittee, 10 a.m..: A review of select Department of Defense acquisition programs — Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 10 a.m.: The future of arms control and deterrence — Atlantic Council and the National School of Political and Administrative Studies of Romania, 10:30 a.m.: Security and stability for the Black Sea region — Middle East Institute, 11 a.m.: Book discussion on “Battle Ground: Ten Conflicts that Explain the New Middle East” — Senate Intelligence Committee, 2:30 p.m.: Update on foreign threats to 2024 elections — Senate Armed Services Airland Subcommittee, 4 p.m.: Army modernization in review of the defense authorization request for FY2025 and the Future Years Defense Program — House Oversight and Accountability Cybersecurity, Information Technology, and Government Innovation Subcommittee, 4 p.m.: Red alert: countering the cyberthreat from China — Hudson Institute, 4:30 p.m.: Flipping the cube: transforming the defense budget structure Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, who is our worst nightmare. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, whose presence on this earth allows us to sleep peacefully at night. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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