Why New York Democrats aren’t taking chances

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Jun 26, 2024 View in browser   By Nick Reisman, Emily Ngo and Jeff Coltin With help from Rich Mendez After a brutal primary, George Latimer and the Democrats are pivoting to unity ahead of November. | Jeenah Moon/AP George Latimer. John Avlon. John Mannion.  Tuesday night was a victory for New York Democrats who are eager to play it safe this November. They want to retake power in the House and ensure there are no liabilities that could hurt President Joe Biden’s reelection chances. New York, home to a half-dozen swing seats, was decisive two years ago in handing House Republicans their narrow majority as GOP candidates swept pivotal races on Long Island and in the Hudson Valley. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries doesn’t want the same debacle this year standing in his way of becoming speaker. The trio of white, male Democrats notched victories in New York as the party has sought to orient itself closer to the political center. But doing so came with millions of dollars in spending from AIPAC on Latimer’s behalf and the unusual intervention of Democratic Party leaders to put their thumb on the scale for Avlon. The results are no guarantee that electability will prevail in November. Democrats must still contend with voters who continue to raise concerns over crime and the migrant crisis — two issues Republicans will hammer them on. Here are four takeaways from Tuesday’s results: A plea for unity: Republicans are not sad to see Rep. Jamaal Bowman, a Squad firebrand, go down in defeat. “Our nation will be stronger with a Congress no longer disgraced by his presence,” former Rep. Lee Zeldin said. But the trendlines could spell trouble for the GOP — even if the Westchester-Bronx seat won’t be competitive in the fall. Latimer’s victory speech was of a larger theme: Moderate Democrats want a rebrand that distances itself from the far left, especially in suburban districts that could decide the House majority. He insisted his win was a blow against both extremes in a polarized country. “There are good men and women in Washington who feel the way we do,” he said. “We have to look at the arguments of the far right and the far left and say you cannot destroy this country with your rhetoric.” Falling in line: Democratic Party leaders really wanted Avlon to win. And many — state Chair Jay Jacobs and Reps. Tom Suozzi, Greg Meeks and Dan Goldman among them — took the unusual step of endorsing him in what became a bitter contest against Nancy Goroff. Avlon, a former CNN host, is a relative newcomer to the district. (Republican Rep. Nick LaLota’s campaign has delighted in the Democrat’s faux pas of saying “in Long Island”). And the district, formerly held by Zeldin, will be a tough one for Avlon to flip this November. But backing a former Rudy Giuliani speechwriter from his 1990s mayoralty shows how Democratic Party leaders are eager to be competitive in this district, and they aren’t willing to write it off. Staying competitive: Mannion will face freshman Republican Rep. Brandon Williams for a Syracuse-area House seat widely seen as one of the most competitive in the country. And Mannion is familiar with close calls: He flipped a GOP-held state Senate in 2020. He narrowly won a second term by 10 votes. “I’m battle-tested. I’ve won tough elections,” he told POLITICO’s Bill Mahoney in an interview. He’ll enter the general election with teacher union support — a powerful organizing tool in a district where Democrats have struggled to be competitive. Lefties did better down the ballot: The New York Working Families Party went all out for Bowman and stayed late Tuesday with him in Yonkers as he lost his reelection bid, but they had much more to celebrate when it came to state legislative races. Co-director Jasmine Gripper noted that all the WFP-endorsed incumbents facing challenges from the political right were victorious and the left-leaning party had three pickups: Gabriella Romero, Larinda Hooks and Claire Valdez. (It takes a lot to beat an incumbent. Embattled Assemblymember Juan Ardila, who fell to Valdez, was the only one to lose across the state.) “It means a stronger bloc when it comes to having to deal with tough things like congestion pricing and if housing reform comes back up again,” Gripper told Playbook. “And building a bloc of progressives means we’re going to get more stuff done in Albany, like raising taxes on the ultra-rich, protecting school funding and expanding climate justice.” — Nick Reisman and Emily Ngo IT’S WEDNESDAY. Got news? Send it our way: Jeff Coltin, Emily Ngo and Nick Reisman.   THE GOLD STANDARD OF POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. The Pro platform dives deeper into critical and quickly evolving sectors and industries—finance, defense, technology, healthcare, energy—equipping policymakers and those who shape legislation and regulation with essential news and intelligence from the world’s best politics and policy journalists. Our newsroom is deeper, more experienced, and better sourced than any other—with teams embedded in the world’s most active legislative and regulatory power centers. From Brussels to Washington, New York to London, Sacramento to Paris, we bring subscribers inside the conversations that determine policy outcomes and the future of industries, providing insight that cannot be found anywhere else. Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY.     WHERE’S KATHY? In New York City with no public schedule. WHERE’S ERIC? Appearing on 94.7 FM The Block’s “Jonesy in the Morning” and delivering remarks at Bayside High School’s graduation ceremony. In the evening, he will appear on News12 The Bronx before speaking at a 2026 FIFA World Cup reception, the Women’s Academy of Excellence and a celebration at The Freedom Church. QUOTE OF THE DAY: “I hope today they learned their lesson, that real Democrats are not going to stand up to this level of disrespect.” — Assemblymember Stefani Zinerman gloating in her victory over DSA-backed challenger Eon Huntley, POLITICO reports. ABOVE THE FOLD No agreement has been made yet with state legislators to move forward with an MTA revenue plan. | Seth Wenig/AP CONGESTION RECKONING: Gov. Kathy Hochul has been holding discussions with state legislators in recent days to discuss ways of moving forward to get a Metropolitan Transportation Authority revenue plan in place, according to two people familiar with the talks. So far, no agreement has emerged. The discussions are being held as efforts are underway to save the congestion pricing program that polls have shown is unpopular with voters. That includes New York City Council members, who are making a last-minute bid to revive the congestion pricing program. A letter obtained by Playbook and signed by 11 council members comes as the MTA’s governing board today will hold its first meeting since Hochul announced she wanted the toll program put on pause. “The implementation of congestion pricing in New York was being hailed as the model for how this policy could be applied around the country, potentially triggering a national trend in emission reduction and creating more liveable cities,” they wrote in the letter. “That is all at risk now.” The letter also raises the broader concerns aired by fiscal watchdogs and state Comptroller Tom DiNapoli: The MTA’s capital plan faces a $15 billion shortfall, putting in jeopardy a host of mass transit infrastructure projects around the region. Tolls from the program were expected to generate $1 billion that would be leveraged against $15 billion in municipal bonds. Proposals to find other sources of recurring revenue — such as a payroll tax increase floated by Hochul — fell flat with state lawmakers days after her reversal. "Governor Hochul has stated repeatedly that she is committed to funding the MTA and is working with partners in government on funding mechanisms while congestion pricing is paused,” Hochul spokesperson Anthony Hogrebe said in a statement. The Citizens Budget Commission, an influential think tank that promotes fiscal conservatism, acknowledged in a statement to be delivered to the MTA board that the pause won’t be “painless.” “It accelerates the opening of an operating budget hole and risks wisely sourced financing that produces multiple benefits,” the group’s president Andrew Rein is expected to tell the board. — Nick Reisman CITY HALL: THE LATEST Comptroller Brad Lander is expected to rally alongside protestors who are against cuts to the city's preschool program. | William Alatriste/NYC Council Media Unit LANDER LOCKS HORNS ON PRE-K: Comptroller Brad Lander is joining an eleventh-hour push to thwart unpopular cuts to the city’s preschool program as he inches closer to challenging the mayor’s reelection bid next year. Lander, a progressive Democrat, is expected to rally alongside fellow politicians, the city teachers union and parents denied a preschool seat this morning. In doing so, he is going after the centrist Democratic mayor on one of his chief vulnerabilities: the rising cost of living in New York City. “As you talk to people about what are the things they’re thinking about, affordability broadly. But housing and child care are at the top of the list, are what are on families’ minds and what they’re anxious about,” Lander told Playbook. He is expected to announce plans to run in July, and Wednesday’s rally outside the Department of Education’s Lower Manhattan headquarters gives him an opportunity to elevate his advocacy on an issue likely to be critical in next year’s primary. — Madina Touré More from the city: — Federal agents are probing Adams’ use of private email addresses and how records from seven different trips he made to China have disappeared. (New York Post) — Adams says the budget will be on time even as City Council members brace for the possibility it will be late this year. (Daily News) — Adams’ plan to reduce traffic congestion? Crackdown on double parking. (Gothamist) NEW FROM PLANET ALBANY Larinda Hooks overwhelmingly defeated Hiram Monserrate in the race for an open Queens Assembly seat Tuesday night — dashing Monserrate’s hopes of resurrecting his political career with a return to the state Capitol. | Craig Ruttle/AP BYE-RAM: Larinda Hooks overwhelmingly defeated Hiram Monserrate in the race for an open Queens Assembly seat Tuesday night — dashing Monserrate’s hopes of resurrecting his political career with a return to the state Capitol. The former state senator was ousted from the Legislature in 2010 over a domestic assault conviction and later spent time in prison for misusing taxpayer funds. He has been attempting a comeback ever since. Hooks, who was backed by the Queens Democratic Party and the outgoing Assemblymember for the district, was up by nearly 20 points with nearly all of the votes counted, according to preliminary results from the New York City Board of Elections. — Joe Anuta MITTS IN THE BAG: Two labor unions’ gambit to boost a Conservative Party candidate to help Democratic state Sen. James Skoufis in November seemed to work. Timothy Mitts, a political novice, won the third party line over Republican nominee Dorey Houle Tuesday after super PACs affiliated with the Communications Workers for America District 1 and the Carpenters union spent thousands on Mitt. The unions support Skoufis in the Orange County state Senate seat, and Houle hoped to gain extra votes in November on the Conservative line. — Jeff Coltin More from Albany: — The Rockefeller Institute of Government has scheduled a series of hearings to weigh the high-stakes changes to the school funding formula. (WTEN) — New York’s public pension fund saw a big rate of return. (Times Union) — Assemblymember Ron Kim declared victory in his reelection bid, after seeing razor-thin victory margins last cycle (City & State)   Understand 2024’s big impacts with Pro’s extensive Campaign Races Dashboard, exclusive insights, and key coverage of federal- and state-level debates. Focus on policy. Learn more.     KEEPING UP WITH THE DELEGATION Former Rep. Mondaire Jones lost the WFP’s support. Now he’s also lost its line. | Amanda Andrade-Rhoades/AP WFP IN NY-17: Former Rep. Mondaire Jones appeared poised late Tuesday to lose the Working Families Party primary to an enigmatic rival that he and the third party both alleged is allied with local Republicans to sabotage the line. The Democrat seeking a return to Congress was trailing Anthony Frascone in the low-turnout race, according to an unofficial state board of election tally. Jones and the WFP are on the outs after his endorsement of Latimer over Bowman, but neither wants a ballot advantage for GOP Rep. Mike Lawler in what’s expected to be a tight race. Without the WFP nomination, Jones would have just the Democratic Party line in the general election while Lawler has the GOP and Conservative Party lines. While Frascone couldn’t be reached for comment by Playbook, his voting record shows he voted with Republicans and the Independence Party before casting his ballot with WFP members in the last several years. — Emily Ngo NEW YORK STATE OF MIND — Albany County District Attorney David Soares isn’t conceding, even as challenger Lee Kindlon declared victory in the Democratic primary. (Times Union) — The Adams administration is disputing claims by upstate officials they planned to move migrants back to New York City. (Times Union) — Dozens of delivery bikes parked outside the Roosevelt Hotel were cleared away as part of a stepped-up crackdown on unregistered and illegal mopeds and e-bikes. (New York Post) — Authorization to work legally still eludes many migrants in New York. (City & State) SOCIAL DATA Edited by Daniel Lippman MEDIAWATCH — Uri Berliner is joining The Free Press as a senior editor. He previously was a senior business editor and reporter at NPR. … Semafor is adding Amna Nawaz, Jon Hilsenrath, Marcus Brauchli and Nayeema Raza as contributors, with a focus on events. — A REPORTER’S REPORTER…. Newsday’s Keshia Clukey is the new president of the Legislative Correspondents Association, also known as the LCA, the organization that makes up Albany’s Capitol press corps. She succeeds Bloomberg’s Zach Williams. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: State Sen. Toby Ann Stavisky … Layla Law-Gisiko … NYT’s Mike Bender and Daniel Victor ... Newsmax’s Emma Rechenberg … Emma Kinery ... NBC’s Scott Bland ... Brunswick Group’s Dave Brown … Louise Radnofsky … Elisabeth Cholnoky … (WAS TUESDAY): Mora Segal ... Sheldon J. Sandler Missed Tuesday’s New York Playbook PM? We forgive you. Read it here.   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters Follow us

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