The June primaries already ballooning with big money

May 31, 2022

TOP LINE

NEXT ONES UP — Happy almost-June, dear readers. After an action-packed May, we're already looking forward to where some of the biggest primary fights of June will be. Follow the money with us:

A pair of open Southern California seats are filling up with spending along increasingly common Democratic dividing lines. In the 42nd District, United Democracy Project (the AIPAC super PAC) has dropped some $515,000 so far on ads opposing state Assemblywoman Cristina Garcia and backing Long Beach Mayor Robert Garcia. DMFI PAC, another pro-Israel group, and crypto-focused Web3 Forward are also chiming in for Robert Garcia. That pair of groups, along with Protect Our Future, is also boosting state Sen. Sydney Kamlager in the open 42nd District with close to $1 million combined.

Republicans are racing to bolster Rep. Young Kim. In 2020, Kim flipped back one of Democrats' prized pickups from the 2018 midterms. But her new 40th District includes only one-fifth of her current constituents, per Daily Kos Elections' excellent redistricting redistribution tables. And Kim and Congressional Leadership Fund ($553,000 so far, per FEC) are both going negative against GOP challenger Greg Raths, a frequent past congressional candidate, to avoid Kim getting bumped out of the top two in the June 7 primary in a Biden +2 district.

— Also: CLF and its Democratic opposite, House Majority PAC, are both spending unusual amounts in the 22nd District, where GOP Rep. David Valadao is seeking reelection and Democratic state Assemblyman Rudy Salas is challenging him. CLF has spent about $332,000 so far, while HMP has dropped $261,000, according to the FEC. Incidentally, early-voting turnout in California is really lagging, so among other factors there may just be a desire to avoid any bizarre low-turnout surprises. (Catch a couple new ads from the super PACs in our TV section below.)

The GOP's next member-versus-member primary is getting expensive. GOP Reps. Mary Miller and Rodney Davis have dueling seven-figure outside group ad buys battling on their respective sides in Illinois' 15th District ahead of June 28. The Club for Growth is backing Miller, while the mysterious Illinois Values PAC — which has yet to disclose its donors — is backing Davis. Davis is also getting a boost from American Dream Federal Action, the super PAC funded by crypto investor Ryan Salame which has been playing in a number of GOP congressional primaries.

And a few from the FEC grab bag: CLF is also spending money to boost Republican John Duarte in CA-13, the new Biden +11 seat in the Central Valley … DMFI is backing Democrat Kevin Mullin and opposing David Canepa in CA-15 … Americans for Prosperity Action is boosting Republicans Nick Begich and Barbara Kirkmeyer in AK-AL and CO-08, respectively … the open IL-03 Democratic primary has VoteVets lining up on one side with Gilbert Villegas and EMILY's LIst and the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC on the other side with Delia Ramirez ... keep an eye out for the new Opportunity for All Action Fund (donors as yet undisclosed), which has splashed cash in several primaries so far, including bucking up Democratic Reps. Danny Davis (IL-07) and Dina Titus (NV-01).

Which June primary are you tracking most closely? Tell me at sbland@politico.com or on Twitter at @PoliticoScott.

Days until the California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota primaries: 7

Days until the Maine, Nevada, North Dakota and South Carolina primaries: 14

Days until the D.C. and Virginia primaries: 21

Days until the Colorado, Illinois, New York, Oklahoma and Utah primaries: 28

Days until the general election: 161

Days until the 2024 election: 889

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CAMPAIGN INTEL

UNCALLED UPDATE — In TX-28, Bexar County will have more information Tuesday, via AP's Acacia Coronado: Rep. Henry Cuellar led Democratic primary challenger Jessica Cisneros " by 175 votes, or 0.4 percentage points, out of 45,209 ballots counted as of 3 p.m. ET Friday. Election officials in Bexar County, where Cisneros has a significant lead over Cuellar among ballots counted, said they will not release results of an undisclosed number of ballots that require voters to cure an issue preventing it from being counted until Tuesday."

— "Centrist Schrader ousted in Oregon primary," by POLITICO's Ally Mutnick: "Rep. Kurt Schrader, a seven-term centrist Democrat from Oregon, has lost his primary to a progressive challenger, handing a massive win to the party's left flank. Jamie McLeod-Skinner, an attorney and business owner endorsed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), benefited from the decennial redistricting process, which left Schrader running in a district that was largely new territory to him. And progressives turned their energy on the incumbent, in part, because they blamed Schrader and other Democratic moderates blocked the passage of two big party priorities on social spending and drug pricing.

"The Associated Press called the race Friday morning, roughly a week and a half after the May 17 primary day, after a protracted vote count in one of the district's largest counties."

THE VOTE — "Lawyer who plotted to overturn Trump loss recruits election deniers to watch over the vote," by the New York Times' Alexandra Berzon : "Working with a well-funded network of organizations on the right, including the Republican National Committee, [Cleta Mitchell] is recruiting election conspiracists into an organized cavalry of activists monitoring elections. In seminars around the country, Ms. Mitchell is marshaling volunteers to stake out election offices, file information requests, monitor voting, work at polling places and keep detailed records of their work."

SPOTLIGHT ON GEORGIA — "'He doesn't speak in beautiful syntax': GOP bets the Senate that Walker is ready for prime time," by POLITICO's Brittany Gibson: "It's a standard political ploy, straight out of a challenger's playbook: demand a series of debates the moment the primaries are over. Only in Georgia, it was incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock who issued the call … Warnock's move made sense in light of a head-scratching moment the day before. In response to a question about gun control legislation, [Republican Herschel] Walker offered a rambling answer so nonsensical that it underscored longstanding concerns about whether he is ready for the rigors of a punishing, high-stakes Senate campaign."

ENDORSEMENT CORNER — The United Association of Union Plumbers and Pipefitters is the latest union to weigh in on the crowded Democratic gubernatorial primary in Maryland, backing former U.S. Labor Secretary Tom Perez. The union says it has 7,000 members who live or work in the state.

PRIMARY POLITICS — "Scoop: PAC to spend $1M to oust 'Squad' member Tlaib," by POLITICO's Brakkton Booker: "The group is made up of a coalition of Black and Jewish business leaders. … [Bakari] Sellers, the television pundit who is a former South Carolina state representative, is fundraising for the PAC."

PROSECUTORIAL DISCRETION MEETS THE ABORTION POLICY FIGHT — "Austin pushing to effectively decriminalize abortion ahead of ruling on Roe," by POLITICO's Megan Messerly: Keep an eye on how this sort of thing plays in local races from city council to district attorney this year. It's "the first push by a major city in a red state to try to circumvent state abortion policy. Councilmember Chito Vela is proposing a resolution that would direct the city's police department to make criminal enforcement, arrest and investigation of abortions its lowest priority and restrict city funds and city staff from being used to investigate, catalogue or report suspected abortions."

AS SEEN ON TV

— Rep. Haley Stevens' (D-Mich.) first TV ad in her member-versus-member primary "features a video clip of [Barack] Obama from an October 2018 campaign rally," per the Detroit News , playing "up her role in the auto rescue" under his administration. Rep. Andy Levin's first ad in the primary, meanwhile, "stresses his support for pro-choice policies, Medicare for All and legislation to lower prescription drug costs" and includes this line: "Only Levin is unbought by corporate PAC money."

— We promised some CA-22 ads above . Well, here they are after the jump. AdImpact tracked two new spots from the big House super PACs coming in Monday night — some of the relatively few positive spots both groups will air this election. Congressional Leadership Fund touts Valadao on gas tax relief, while House Majority PAC introduced Salas as a leader on teacher pay and safe drinking water.

— In Arizona's Senate race, Majority Forward is continuing its early Spanish-language TV campaign backing Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly with a new ad on insulin prices. The NRSC is also out with an anti-Kelly spot, linking him to "Joe Biden's disastrous border policies."

THE CASH DASH

— Sarah Palin raised and spent more money than her rival candidates in Alaska's special House election during the pre-primary filing period. The former governor raised nearly $632,000 and spent $526,000 from April 1 through May 22, with more than half of that spending going to list rental fees. Check out the rest of the pre-special reports at ProPublica's Itemizer.

— "Incorporation records reveal new details about a 'dark money' group pouring millions into 2022 midterms," by OpenSecrets' Taylor Giorno: "According to a certificate of incorporation obtained by OpenSecrets, Erick Todd used a personal mailbox address in San Juan, Puerto Rico, to incorporate Defending America Together, Inc. in Lewes, Del. … Defending America Together has not publicized any social welfare activities, but a corporation with the same name contributed $5 million to super PACs that spent big in the Alabama and Pennsylvania primaries."

Presidential Big Board

— "Tom Cotton's rigid conservatism," by POLITICO's Burgess Everett : "Cotton doesn't say "no" when asked if he's planning to run for president in 2024. And for a party still reeling from the peripatetic ideology of Donald Trump, Cotton could offer a predictable alternative: He builds few bridges to Democrats and isn't afraid of clobbering Republicans, either. … Though he's positioning himself as one of Biden's chief critics, Cotton is equally notorious for fighting with Republicans. He opposed the bipartisan Gang of Eight immigration bill and unsuccessfully tried to thwart a modest Trump-era criminal justice reform law that he called a 'jailbreak.'"

STAFFING UP

— Vote.org is staffing up for the midterms: The nonpartisan voter registration and turnout organization is adding 14 people to its staff, including: new COO Kaitlyn Unger, communications director Nick Morrow, program manager Belinda C. Chiu, and 11 other hires across four teams.

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY — "In the immortal words of Bill Clinton, 'I feel your pain.'" — Former Rep. Thaddeus McCotter, remarking on the petition-forging case that caused James Craig, Perry Johnson and other Republicans to get thrown off the gubernatorial ballot — a decision they are appealing. (ClickOnDetroit.com)

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