How the economy actually hits

Presented by Connected Commerce Council:

Jul 29, 2022 View in browser   By Sam Stein , Alex Thompson and Max Tani Presented by Connected Commerce Council Welcome to POLITICO's West Wing Playbook, your guide to the people and power centers in the Biden administration. With help from Allie Bice.  Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Max   It's a summer Friday so we pubbed a little early. Happy weekend! For the past week, much of the discourse in Washington has centered on a technocratic debate over what constitutes a recession and whether Fed Chairman JEROME POWELL raised interest rates by too many or too few basis points. It's a discussion that's almost entirely foreign to vast swaths of the country, who aren't just lost in the esoteric jargon but literally don't have the time to follow. RAE LACURSIA is among them. She's a 52-year-old single mom and a full-time nurse who lives outside Chicago with her 25-year-old son. And over the last week, she and I have talked regularly about the state of the economy, how it has impacted her life, and how the arguments playing out in Washington D.C. are being absorbed, if at all, outside of the capital. Rae is not a singular reflection of the country at large. No one person is. But her story rings familiar to many: A life upended by the pandemic, a sense of relief as it faded, followed by despair when inflation began to bite. She had been working as an ER nurse until the end of 2020, when she decided to leave her job. "It just burnt me out," she told me, "putting in extra hours and watching people die." She found work again a half year later: three days a week at a hospital, pulling 12 hour shifts. She makes about $75,000 a year. But increasingly, it has been a struggle to get by. Her son is taking classes to be a screenwriter. The money he makes working at a cafe goes towards tuition and savings for a move out to California. Her parents are both in their 80s. And as the child living closest to them, Rae takes on the majority of the caretaking role. After years of avoiding the doctor, she went for a check-up recently, only to discover she had diabetes, hypothyroidism and hypertension. The medications she needs were only partially covered by her insurance. The rent on the apartment where Rae lives has been stable. But even then, she has scrambled to make the payments and occasionally asked for extra time. Gas costs more. And grocery shopping has turned into an art form — a demonstration of the deal-finding craft. "I've become a super shopper, coupons galore," is how she put it, noting that during this Thursday's shopping trip, she reduced her bill by $61. "We have to do it. We have to eat." The first time Rae and I spoke was the day after the Fed announced a 75 basis points hike on interest rates. An avid MSNBC watcher, Rae had heard the news. But it didn't register with her. She had just come off a 12 hour shift. There were too many other things to worry about. She told me that her salary technically made her middle class. "But I don't feel like that at all," she added. "I know it's not politically correct, but I feel like white trash a lot of times." We talked again on Thursday, shortly after it was announced that the economy had contracted by 0.9 percent in the second quarter. She wasn't surprised. "I don't feel like I'm growing, economically," she said. When we talked again the next day, she relayed that she was going to make her next rent payment and had checked the balance in her checking account. There would be $200 left once the check cleared. "We just made it," she said. "But we are one thing away from not being okay." Despite living on the cusp of being not okay, Rae tries to muster some optimism. It was worse in 2008, she noted, when the markets entirely collapsed and jobs were disappearing. A committed Democrat, she believes JOE BIDEN when he says the country isn't in a recession and that the economy is transitioning to a more stable place. Politically, she won't waver. Other issues, like guns and abortion rights, would keep her in the party's tent. At the same time, there was a strain and sadness in her voice that she didn't bother to hide. She was "spinning in circles." And it was increasingly difficult to see when it would stop. For Rae, the week's big economic news wasn't measured in basis points, or the employment cost index, or the GDP. It was in the cost of food, the bills to pay, and the dreams that she knew she would have to defer. "I have goals," she told me. "I want to go to Italy before I die. It was going to be my 50th birthday treat to myself but I turned 50 in the pandemic so I didn't go anywhere. And then I wanted to pay my charge card down. So I recalculated it and I was going to do it when I was 55. Then, with an unexpected charge, I said I will do it when I'm 56. And then, I saw interest rates were raised, so I'm gonna do it now when I'm 57. I'm still hopeful though. I can't lose hope." MESSAGE US — Are you ALEXANDRIA PHILLIPS, communications director for Surgeon General Dr. VIVEK MURTHY? We want to hear from you! And we'll keep you anonymous if you'd like. Or if you think we missed something in today's edition, let us know and we may include it tomorrow. Email us at westwingtips@politico.com . A message from Connected Commerce Council: Small businesses face big consequences from overregulating tech. By breaking up integrated services, it gets harder and more expensive for smaller shops to reach customers. That's why 87% of small businesses are concerned that antitrust legislation is going to make digital tools more expensive and less useful. Say yes to supporting small business success. Vote NO on the American Innovation and Choice Online Act (S.2992).   POTUS PUZZLER This one is from Allie. The name of Camp David was inspired by a president's grandson — which president was it? (Answer at bottom.) Cartoon of the Week Cartoon | Matt Wuerker/POLITICO TGIF! It's cartoon feature time. This one's by our very own MATT WUERKER. He also publishes a selection of cartoons from all over the country. View the cartoon carousel here. The Oval STAYING ON THE (BEDING)FIELD: White House comms director KATE BEDINGFIELD will not be leaving her post after all. She emailed staff on Friday that after being asked by the president, she will stay on the job. "The work is too important and too energizing and I have a lot of gas left in the tank," she wrote. The news was first reported by NBC's MIKE MEMOLI. YOU'VE GOT A FRIEND IN ME? Biden and his fellow Democrats aren't exactly on the same page right now on the country not being in a recession. On Thursday, the president said the economy is on "the right path." New York City Mayor ERIC ADAMS had a different take : "We are in a financial crisis, like you can never imagine," he said. "Wall Street is collapsing; we're in a recession." Meanwhile, Rep. DEAN PHILLIPS (D-Minn.) said on Thursday that he wouldn't support Biden in 2024. He later told CNN's MANU RAJU : "Biden has been the principled, stabilizing bridge the country needed. I just believe it's time for generational change in Congress and the White House." WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE WANTS YOU TO READ: This FAREED ZAKARIA op-ed in the Washington Post with the headline: "Biden is showing that governing from the middle is possible." Chief of Staff RON KLAIN retweeted the op-ed. Zakaria writes: "In trying to revive that old model of governing, Biden is fighting against the tide. But surprisingly, in small but significant ways, he is winning. If more bipartisan bills get passed and if legislators don't get punished for working across party lines — even get rewarded for it — that might begin to shift some of the incentives and reduce the toxicity in Washington." WHAT JOE BIDEN REALLY WANTS YOU TO READ: This AP story with the lede : "After a nearly 70-year absence, a passenger train running from Vermont's revitalized Burlington train station to New York City headed south Friday as part of a nationwide renewal of interest in rail." #AmtrakJoe WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE DOESN'T WANT YOU TO READ: The stories in CNN , The Associated Press , the New York Post , and others about the Biden administration filling in gaps in President DONALD TRUMP 's border wall. "Biden had pledged during his campaign to cease all future wall construction, but the administration later agreed to some barriers, citing safety," the AP wrote. "The agency said in a statement that Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas authorized completion of the project near the Morelos Dam, reflecting the administration's 'priority to deploy modern, effective border measures and also improving safety and security along the Southwest Border.'" In today's briefing, press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE said: "We are not finishing the wall. We are cleaning up the mess the prior administration left behind in their failed attempt to build a wall." NEW JOHN HARRIS COLUMN: As always, ya gotta read the boss. His latest: Wait, Is Biden a Better President Than People Thought? THE BUREAUCRATS CYBER OFFICE ADDITIONS: HALEY RING is now serving as a special assistant to the principal deputy national cyber director, our DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned. She previously served as a special assistant to the Office of the White House Liaison at the Department of Defense. ELLIOTT PHAUP is now a special adviser for legislative affairs in the Office of the National Cyber Director. Previously, he worked as a senior adviser to Rep. C.A. DUTCH RUPPERSBERGER (D-Md.). Agenda Setting SHOTS, SHOTS, ETC… The White House Friday reached a deal with Moderna to spend $1.74 billion for 66 million doses of the updated Covid vaccine, WSJ's STEPHANIE ARMOUR reports. The deal also includes "the option to purchase up to 234 million additional doses, as part of a fall booster campaign.… The deal Friday, which follows an agreement to buy 105 million doses of updated vaccines from Pfizer Inc. and partner BioNTech SE, is expected to give the federal government enough shots for a booster push as early as September." FIRE FROM THE LEFT: WaPo's JEFF STEIN and TONY ROMM report that some progressives including Sen. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.) "fear the Fed's rate hikes could lead to job losses that reverse gains made under the Biden administration." Warren took on Fed Chair Jerome Powell directly, saying: "The economic data are flashing red. We don't need the Fed to tip the economy into a recession, and the numbers show that's a real risk…We have never built a strong economy by trying to put more people out of work, and that is exactly what Jerome Powell is trying to do." BEYOND GRINER: As U.S. diplomats continue to try and free WNBA star BRITNEY GRINER and PAUL WHELAN, who are both being held in Russia, the State Department is also keeping public pressure on other countries holding Americans abroad. Secretary of State TONY BLINKEN will be in Rwanda next month, where, among other issues, he's expected to protest the detention of PAUL RUSESABAGINA. West Wing Playbook readers will remember that Rusesabagina, the inspiration for the film Hotel Rwanda, was classified by the State Dept. as "wrongfully detained," a label denoting the Biden administration's displeasure with Rwanda's recent conviction of the activist.   STAY UP TO DATE WITH CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO's platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android . CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE.     What We're Reading FTC's Khan Overruled Staff to Sue Meta Over Virtual Reality Deal (Bloomberg's Leah Nylen) Biden nominates abortion rights lawyer in U.S. Supreme Court case to federal judgeship (Reuters' Nate Raymond) Why Vice President Kamala Harris mentioned her blue suit at a disability rights meeting (19th News' Sara Luterman) Russian officials requested adding convicted murderer to Griner/Whelan prisoner swap (CNN's Natasha Bertrand and Frederik Pleitgen)   A message from Connected Commerce Council:   What We're Watching Our very own SAM STEIN is on HBO's Real Time With BILL MAHER tonight. If you are in the crowd this evening, we encourage you to heckle. "Sam Stein sucks," is simple and alliterative. The Oppo Book White House science adviser FRANCIS COLLINS has a very specific strategy when it comes to working and listening to music at the same time. "Most of the time, I do better listening to instrumental music because if it's going to be voices and lyrics, I start paying attention to the lyrics and then I screw up what I'm working on," he said on a Nov. 2020 "Insights" podcast episode . His go-to? Guitar solos. "I listen to a lot of really impressive flat picking guitar solos, people like DAVID GREER," he said. "Those are just astounding, and yet not intrusive enough in terms of what my brain is trying to do that I can still keep working."   In honor of today's oppo, have a listen to some Greer yourself.   INTRODUCING POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY .     POTUS PUZZLER ANSWER Presidents FRANKLIN ROOSELVELT and HARRY TRUMAN had called the retreat Shangri-La, but President DWIGHT D. EISENHOWER renamed it Camp David , after his grandson DAVID (natch). A CALL OUT — Do you have a harder trivia question? Send us your best one about the presidents with a citation and we may feature it. Edited by Emily Cadei and Sam Stein. A message from Connected Commerce Council: Small businesses run on tech. Integrated digital tools help Frank DiCarlantonio at Scaffidi's Restaurant reach customers, scale up, and compete. In fact, 75% of small business leaders say digital tools are important to their operations. But Congress is aiming to break up the digital tools and services that small businesses rely on—making them more expensive and harder to access. It could be the difference between success and closing their doors for good. Don't forget about small businesses. Vote NO on the American Innovation and Choice Online Act (S.2992).     Follow us on Twitter Alex Thompson @AlexThomp Maxwell Tani @maxwelltani Allie Bice @alliebice   Follow us

To change your alert settings, please log in at https://www.politico.com/_login?base=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.politico.com/settings This email was sent to rouf@idiot.cloudns.cc by: POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA Please click here and follow the steps to unsubscribe.