A battle of the extremes

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Aug 29, 2022 View in browser   By Madison Fernandez TOP LINE In recent months, Democrats have owned the messaging on "too extreme" stances being pushed by Republican opponents — hitting topics like policies restricting abortion access and beliefs that the 2020 election was rigged. But Republicans are starting to claim that "too extreme" storyline as their own. Democrats and Democratic groups have spent more than $3 million on ads calling Republican opponents "extreme" over the last month, compared to around $1 million from Republicans, according to AdImpact. A CNN poll from last month found that 55 percent of voters view Republicans as too extreme on abortion. Heading into the general election, it seems that Republicans are redirecting that view to their opponents. Last week, Arizona GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters released a digital ad about his abortion policies — calling them "common-sense" compared to incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly 's "extreme abortion policies." Last week, Arizona GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters released a digital ad about his abortion policies. | Ross D. Franklin/AP Photo Masters has previously stated that he supports a "federal personhood law … that recognizes that unborn babies are human beings that may not be killed." Kelly and the Senate Majority PAC have seized on Masters' stance over recent months, calling him " dangerous for Arizona " and " too extreme." (Masters' campaign said he only promotes a federal ban on third-trimester abortions.) But Masters flips the script in his ad: "Mark Kelly votes for the most extreme abortion laws in the world," he says. "We're talking no limits up until birth. Think about how crazy that is. That's more extreme than Western Europe. That's way more extreme than what Arizonans want." Kelly earlier this year voted for the Women's Health Protection Act, which would have prevented states from banning abortions or putting in place requirements or restrictions that affect abortion access. It failed in the Senate. The Susan B. Anthony List, an anti-abortion group, put out a $1 million ad buy in March hitting Kelly as an " abortion extremist." Washington Republican Senate candidate Tiffany Smiley released an ad last week with the same sentiment. " Patty Murray has spent millions to paint me as an extremist," she says in the ad. Earlier this month, Murray's campaign put out an ad highlighting Smiley's "pro-life" stance. "I'm pro-life, but I oppose a federal abortion ban," Smiley continues. Unlike Masters, she quickly moves away from the topic of abortion. "I'm pro-life, but I oppose a federal abortion ban," Washington Republican Senate candidate Tiffany Smiley said in an ad. | Ted S. Warren/AP Photo "What's extreme? Thirty years in the Senate and nothing to show for it. Patty Murray wants to scare you. I want to serve you," she says. And in Oregon, nonaffiliated candidate Betsy Johnson is taking the "extreme" conversation to both of her general election opponents. "Tina Kotek and Christine Drazan, leading the two extremes driving Oregon apart," a recent ad says . "Kotek passed a law to protect tent cities, sided with rioters over police and led the fight to legalize hard drugs like heroin and meth. Christine Drazan wants to make abortion illegal. … Both too extreme for Oregon." Republicans have also used the "too extreme" rhetoric against Democrats for their policing policies. Earlier this month, prior to the NY-19 special election, the NRCC called Democrat Pat Ryan an "extreme liberal" for his bail reform policy. Meanwhile, Ryan and the DCCC were running ads about Republican opponent Marc Molinaro's " too extreme " stance on restrictive abortion access. Ryan beat Molinaro by more than 2,000 votes last Tuesday. Welcome back to Weekly Score! It's Monday, Aug. 29. Do we think politicians are going to start posting themselves at the club in solidarity with Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin now? (Fun fact: Your host once broke her foot dancing while out one night.) Send me your tips and favorite dance moves at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616. Days until the Massachusetts primary: 8 Days until the Delaware, New Hampshire and Rhode Island primaries: 15 Days until the general election: 71 Days until the 2022 World Cup: 84 Days until the 2024 election: 799   The Women Rule series brings together rising stars, accomplished professionals, and women at the pinnacle of their careers to inform, empower and connect women across diverse sectors and career levels. Attendance to our quarterly in-person POLITICO Women Rule meetings, is by invitation-only. Join our interest list and learn more here.     Want to receive this newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You'll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day's biggest stories. CAMPAIGN INTEL SECRETARY OF STATE WATCH — "Many of the election deniers running for secretary of state this year have spent their time talking about something they can't do: 'decertifying' the 2020 results," POLITICO's Zach Montellaro reports . "The bigger question — amid concerns about whether they would fairly administer the 2024 presidential election — is exactly what powers they would have if they win in November. Atop the list of the most disruptive things they could do is refusing to certify accurate election results — a nearly unprecedented step that would set off litigation in state and federal court. That has already played out on a smaller scale this year, when a small county in New Mexico refused to certify election results over unfounded fears about election machines, until a state court ordered them to certify. But secretaries of states' roles in elections stretch far beyond approving vote tallies and certifying results. Many of the candidates want to dramatically change the rules for future elections, too." BATTLEGROUND WISCONSIN — Black voter turnout has decreased in Wisconsin. That could prove to be an issue for Democratic Wisconsin Senate candidate Mandela Barnes. NBC News' Adam Edelman reports : "State Democrats and organizers say that the issue before them isn't whether many Black voters are deciding between Barnes — who made history as the state's first Black lieutenant governor — and the Republican incumbent, Sen. Ron Johnson. It's whether they'll vote at all. … Barnes' campaign said it was mobilizing various groups to organize get out the vote efforts and would continue to prioritize outreach to Black community leaders and faith leaders in Milwaukee and throughout the state." SAME-SEX MARRIAGE VOTE — "As Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer moves closer to a vote that would put Sen. Ron Johnson on defense in the home stretch of the midterms, the Wisconsin conservative is suddenly under the microscope on a social issue that he's rarely focused on during his decade-plus in office," report POLITICO's Marianne Levine and Holly Otterbein. "Backing the same-sex marriage bill, which Schumer has vowed to call a vote on without committing to a time frame, would be an unusually bipartisan move  for the MAGA-world favorite. And if Johnson does vote yes, it won't be the only front where he's avoiding the unpopular side of a major issue: Asked recently by POLITICO if Donald Trump should seek another term, the senator demurred that it's up to the former president. The incumbent himself, though, dismissed any suggestion that he's making a calculated shift before the election." ABORTION STANCE — Republican candidate for MI-07 Tom Barrett has "removed the 'values' section of his campaign website that touted his anti-abortion position and history with the pro-life movement," The Detroit News' Melissa Nann Burke and Craig Mauger report . Barrett told The Detroit News that "he's still opposed to abortion and supports no exceptions in cases of rape or incest" and he "didn't know why the website was changed but noted that it's always being updated." NBC News reported last week that Arizona Senate candidate Blake Masters also "softened his tone and scrubbed his website's policy page of tough abortion restrictions." "My opponent recently removed any mention of choice from his website, hiding his 100% pro-life stance. According to him, it's not an issue that's important to voters, saying the update was likely 'based upon the issues that were most salient right now,'" wrote Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin, Barrett's opponent . "Either he's not actually meeting with voters, or he's not listening to them — particularly women from his own party. What I'm hearing every day is that Michiganders care deeply about personal freedom." PARTNER PICK — Rep. Charlie Crist , Democratic candidate for governor of Florida, picked Karla Hernández-Mats as his running mate. "[Hernández-Mats'] story is a Florida story," he wrote. "As a first-generation American who dedicated her life to service, she became a Miami-Dade public school teacher & a fierce defender of working Floridians & reproductive freedom." And as The Associated Press' Anthony Izaguirre notes , "The selection of Hernandez-Mats ensures a campaign focus on education, an arena where [Republican Gov. Ron] DeSantis has had success in animating his conservative base through his hands-off approach to the coronavirus pandemic and policies limiting classroom discussions of race and LGBTQ issues." Rep. Charlie Crist celebrates as he announces his running mate Karla Hernández-Mats in Hialeah, Fla., on Aug. 27, 2022. | Gaston De Cardenas/AP Photo OFF THE TRAIL — Texas Democratic gubernatorial candidate Beto O'Rourke is postponing events after being diagnosed with a bacterial infection. His campaign said O'Rourke has been discharged from the hospital, and O'Rourke wrote "[I] promise to be back on the road with you as soon as I am able." THREE'S COMPANY — Dennis Pyle will appear on the November ballot as an independent candidate for governor of Kansas. "The news is a potential hindrance to the Republican nominee in the race, Attorney General Derek Schmidt, with the conservative Pyle potentially set to take votes away from Schmidt in his battle with Democrat Gov. Laura Kelly," The Topeka Capital-Journal's Andrew Bahl and Jason Tidd report. LONG READ — POLITICO's Gavin Bade reports from Flint, Mich.: "Economic anxiety is rife. Union workers are taking second and third jobs to make ends meet. Auto factories keep stopping over chip shortages, leaving workers to file for unemployment. Retirees often choose between food and medicine after receiving pension cuts. And everywhere, people express a deep frustration that the jobs on offer today don't offer the same pay, benefits and community cohesion that they remember from Michigan's industrial heyday. … Those sentiments, expressed by dozens of voters over a two-week period in July, point to a contradiction at the heart of governments' domestic manufacturing push. While incentives from Washington and state capitols have helped to jumpstart some factories, those jobs are not filling the social expectations — in health care, retirement, education and the like — that industrial employment set decades ago. Democratic leaders here fear that if they cannot revive some of those aspects of American social life through their spending plans in Congress, they'll lose the region to the populism of Republicans, just as in 2016." THE CASH DASH — The Senate Leadership Fund is canceling nearly $10 million in Arizona and Alaska ad reservations, POLITICO's Burgess Everett reports . The roughly $8 million in Arizona is about half of its initial reservation in the state. Ads were supposed to start in the early fall, but are now set to begin in early October. "The McConnell-backed super PAC's strategic change is in part a reaction to its massive $28 million commitment in Ohio, where GOP nominee J.D. Vance is facing a strong challenge from Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio). The organization said it will reallocate the money elsewhere and is not planning to totally pull out of Arizona at the moment, as Kelly leads Masters in essentially every recent public poll." The group is also cutting two weeks of advertising in Alaska, or about $1.7 million. Senate Leadership Fund President Steven Law said that decision is a vote of confidence in Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska). Ads supporting Murkowski's bid will now begin Sept. 20. And if you're keeping track, the National Republican Senatorial Committee separately canceled millions in ads earlier this month, planning to reprogram them to get more efficient buys alongside GOP candidates. … Related: "GOP leaders warn Arizona Senate candidate Blake Masters to raise more money — or risk losing to Democrat Mark Kelly," by CNBC's Brian Schwartz. — The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has reserved an additional $24.2 million in broadcast TV and cable ad reservations, the committee's second major ad reservation of the cycle. The highest amount — $3.45 million — is in Portland, Ore., followed by $2.6 million in Fresno, Calif., and $2 million in San Antonio, Texas. — The League of Conservation Voters Victory Fund announced its first six paid media investments in House races for the 2022 general election, totaling $2 million, in CA-49, CT-05, KS-03, NM-02, PA-07 and WA-08. The ad campaigns are "intended to support climate champions in battleground districts who voted for the Inflation Reduction Act and oppose pro-polluter, MAGA extreme candidates," according to the group. — "Many of the GOP's biggest donors are among those who funneled anonymous contributions to former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley's nonprofit as she lays the groundwork for a prospective 2024 presidential bid, according to previously unreported tax documents obtained by POLITICO," POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt scoops. See the full list of donors here. VOTING RIGHTS — The Arizona Free and Fair Elections Act, a ballot initiative that would propose changes to campaign and election laws to increase access for voters, is not on the November ballot. The Arizona Supreme Court's "order ended a technical legal battle that raged for most of the past week, capping a stunning reversal by a lower-court judge who ultimately concluded the Arizona Free and Fair Elections Act fell 1,458 short of the needed 237,645 valid voter signatures to qualify for the Nov. 8 ballot," The Arizona Republic's Mary Jo Pitzl reports . The measure's backers "expressed incredulity that a petition drive that netted more than twice the number of required signatures could fail when the proposal passed muster with county recorders and the Arizona Secretary of State's Office. They vowed to turn their energies to defeating a trio of constitutional amendments that lawmakers have placed on the ballot, saying those measures would weaken voters' rights to propose laws themselves." — "Several people who were arrested last week as part of Gov. Ron DeSantis' voter fraud crackdown were notified by official government entities they were eligible to vote, according to court documents and interviews," POLITICO's Matt Dixon reports . "The defendants told authorities they had no intention of committing voter fraud, according to affidavits, and in some cases were baffled by their arrests because counties had sent them voter registration cards and approved them to vote. … In court documents filed in five counties, most say at least one official government body — in most cases a local election supervisor — incorrectly indicated to them they could vote, including allowing them to register and sending them voter cards in the mail."   SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY.     POLL POSITION — Democratic New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham is leading Republican Mark Ronchetti 47-40, according to a poll from the Albuquerque Journal. (518 likely Nevada voters, Aug. 19-25, MoE +/- 4.3 percentage points.) — Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is leading Republican Tudor Dixon 50-39, according to a poll published by EPIC-MRA, a Michigan-based research firm. (600 likely voters, Aug. 18-23, MoE +/- 4 percentage points.) — Fifty-nine percent of Republican voters think Donald Trump should be Republican nominee for president in 2024 versus 44 percent of Democratic voters who think Joe Biden should be the Democratic nominee, according to a poll from USA Today/Ipsos . (2,345 adults (800 Republican voters, 1,031 Democratic voters, and 514 voters that don't vote for either party or are non-voters), Aug. 18-22, MoE +/- 4.2 percentage points for Republican voters, +/- 3.7 percentage points for Democratic voters and +/- 5.3 percentage points for voters that don't vote for either party or are non-voters.) — Republicans are still poised to win back a majority in the House, but their predicted lead is down to 226 seats, a 12-seat gain, according to a CBS News Battleground Tracker poll. In July, the tracker predicted Republicans could win 230 seats. (Each party's seat estimate has a MoE of +/-13 seats.) AS SEEN ON TV — Colorado Republican candidate for Senate Joe O'Dea is the latest to join the "wife guy" ranks with his latest ad. In the ad, his wife talks about his upbringing — a playbook we've seen many times from Republican Senate candidates so far this cycle (see J.D. Vance in Ohio, Adam Laxalt in Nevada and Blake Masters in Arizona for more on that). — The American Action Network, a Republican nonprofit group, is up with a national ad campaign calling President Joe Biden's student debt relief a "bailout for rich kids." The ad will be airing during upcoming college football and Major League Baseball games. — Endangered Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) is on air with a TV ad focusing on abortion rights. It's the latest sign that a growing number of swing-district Democrats view it as a winning issue in the fall, POLITICO's Ally Mutnick reports. — Duty and Honor, a super PAC associated with the Senate Majority PAC, is out with an ad hitting Rep. Ted Budd (R-N.C.) on abortion. "Beasley supporters [are] doing everything they can in hopes of distracting folks from Cheri Beasley's embracing Joe Biden's economic policies that have yielded the record setting inflation that is costing NC families," Budd spokesperson Jonathan Felts told POLITICO's Burgess Everett and Anthony Adragna. Presidential Big Board — Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin hasn't "had a chance to even think about" running for president, per The Detroit News' Craig Mauger. He appeared at a campaign event over the weekend in Lansing, Mich., for Republican candidate for Michigan governor Tudor Dixon. Youngkin is also slated to campaign and fundraise in Nevada for gubernatorial candidate Joe Lombardo on Sept. 15, as well as in New Mexico, Oregon and Kansas. STAFFING UP — The Republican National Committee has fired Paris Dennard as its national spokesperson, POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt reports. Dennard, who started working for the RNC in March 2020, wrote on Twitter , "For everything there is a season, and this week, my season at the RNC has come to an end, and I respect their decision. I wish nothing but the best for Ronna, Tommy and the entire team as they continue to help our GOP candidates, and GOTV for the midterm elections." CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: "The country could lose the right to vote in less than three months," Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold, in The Guardian.   Follow us on Twitter Steven Shepard @politico_steve Zach Montellaro @zachmontellaro Ally Mutnick @allymutnick Madison Fernandez @madfernandez616   Follow us

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