Russia blows up Black Sea grain deal

Oct 31, 2022

Presented by American Farmland Trust and California Certified Organic Farmers

With help from Meredith Lee, Jones Hayden, Elena Schneider and Annie Snider

QUICK FIX

— Russia put the Black Sea grain deal on hold over the weekend, a decision that will strain food supply in regions facing famine. Moscow said it's in response to an attack in Crimea, but the U.S. accused the Kremlin of weaponizing food.

— Election watch: Georgia Democrats are counting on a strong ground game to lift Ag Committee Sen. Raphael Warnock over Republican candidate Herschel Walker. Recent polls have shown Walker gaining ground on Warnock, but the race remains a toss-up.

— Water is the paramount concern to U.S. agriculture, and the Interior Department said it will move to cut deliveries from the Colorado River next year. Meanwhile, the White House held a forum on the rapidly depleting Mississippi River water level.

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Driving the Day

GRAIN DEAL ON HOLD: Russia put the agreement allowing critical grain to leave Ukrainian ports on ice, citing an attack on Russian-occupied Crimea that Moscow blamed on Ukraine, writes Jones Hayden .

Context: The grain deal was brokered with help from the U.N. and Turkey, which sought to ensure safe passage of grain from Ukraine to vulnerable nations that rely on Ukraine for grain exports. It was seen as critical for food insecure nations to avoid widespread famine and starvation, as Ukraine is a breadbasket for Europe, Africa and the Middle East.

U.S. response: The U.S. blasted Russia's decision to renege on the deal, with President Joe Biden calling it "purely outrageous" in an exchange with reporters in Delaware. Biden added it would increase starvation.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said by "suspending this arrangement, Russia is again weaponizing food in the war it started."

Race to repair: The U.N. and Turkey are both racing to get Russia back into the fold. The Joint Coordination Center — the body established by the U.N., Turkey, Russia and Ukraine to coordinate foodstuff exports from Ukrainian ports — said it is "discussing next steps" following Moscow's decision to halt the Black Sea agreement.

But Russia appears to be digging in, with ambassador Anatoly Antonov instead slamming Washington's response to the alleged Crimea attack as "truly outrageous."

Ukrainian officials have long-feared that Russia would disrupt the deal as part of an effort to inflict maximum damage on Ukraine's agriculture-dependent economy before the winter.

"In reality new ships were not coming already for several weeks, because there was a long line of ships waiting for the [checkpoint] in Istanbul" as Russia tried to slow the process, one Ukrainian official told Meredith.

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GEORGIA ELECTION: In 2020, an impressive Democratic ground game lifted the party into the Senate majority as Sens. Warnock and Jon Ossoff defeated two incumbent Republicans, reports Elena Schneider .

Ossoff, while not on the ballot this year, is chipping into Warnock's campaign by revving up a field organization that tested innovative ways to get unlikely-to-vote citizens to turn out two years ago. The methods helped mobilize Democratic voters in enough numbers to flip the Senate.

Why it matters: Warnock holds a seat on the Senate Ag Committee — a more powerful appointment this year as lawmakers are gearing up to craft the more than half-a-trillion dollar 2023 farm bill. Warnock has used his ag cred to boost his campaign among Georgia farmers.

But the race remains a dead heat even as Walker, former Georgia Bulldog Heisman Trophy winner and pro football star, is embroiled in numerous scandals.

The race could come down as the decider for the Senate majority as Democrats try to hold onto their razor-thin 50-50 margin.

Ossoff's strategy, known as "paid-relational" organizing, pays people to talk politics with their close friends. The "community mobilizers" are typically people with sparse voting history who may be able to connect with those that are similar.

But this time they're facing headwinds from motivated Republican voters seeking to boot Democrats from power, rather than powerful anti-Trump sentiment in 2020.

A runoff is also a possibility in Georgia. Georgia's GOP-controlled legislature significantly tightened runoff rules in 2021, shortening the period to four weeks from nine, while also restricting early voting and essentially eliminating the ability to register new voters during a runoff.

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TURNING DOWN THE SPIGOT: The Interior Department announced plans to quickly move to reduce water deliveries from the rapidly drying Colorado River, potentially further cutting off the flow of water to farms in the western U.S., reports Annie Snider .

Context: The Colorado River and its reservoirs, Lake Powell and Lake Mead, are the major source of water for large swaths of the western U.S. But the river and the lakes have been drying up at a rapid pace, and another dry winter is predicted. This could cause Lake Powell to drop below the hydropower turbines by November 2023, threatening the power grid and the ability to send water downstream to Arizona, California and Nevada.

Timing: Interior said it is conducting the revamp of reservoir guidelines on an "expedited" timeline and plans to put out a draft supplemental environmental impact statement in the spring 2023 and issue a final EIS and Record of Decision in late summer 2023, so that the new guidelines can be in place when the Bureau of Reclamation sets operations for the 2023-2024 water year in August.

Interior said the notice of intent will be open for public comment until December 20 and that, when the supplemental EIS is published, it plans to hold a 45-day public comment period.

Meanwhile, the White House convened a CEO roundtable last week to discuss government action on the other rapidly drying river, the Mississippi. A critical gateway for agricultural goods, the Mississippi has fallen to historically low water levels.

According to a WH readout, "both industry and government officials discussed actions underway to maintain safe and steady navigation of the river system," including dredging to keep adequate depths for navigation.

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Row Crops

— Christine McDaniel, a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University and former government trade wonk, penned an op-ed in The Hill on the looming biotech corn feud with Mexico.

— An investigation into Senate Foreign Relations Chair Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), appears to be linked to a halal meat certification company, The New York Times reports . The nature and extent of the investigation is not yet clear. Readers may remember Menendez as the senator holding up the confirmation of Doug McKalip, Biden's nominee to be chief agricultural negotiator at the office of the U.S. Trade Representative.

— In response to unflinching drought, farmers are trying to add to their revenue streams in the West, The Wall Street Journal reports . It includes tourism, new crops and allowing hunting on their land.

THAT'S ALL FOR MA. Drop us a line: gdowns@politico.com , meredithlee@politico.com , marciabrown@politico.com , abehsudi@politico.com and ecadei@politico.com .

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