Competitive congressional districts decline

Feb 27, 2023

TOP LINE

FIRST IN SCORE — House races across the country continue to get less competitive, according to an analysis from FairVote, a nonpartisan group that advocates for election reform.

Nationally, more races are getting decided by a wide margin. Eighty-four percent of House seats last year were decided by 10 or more points or were uncontested, and the average margin of victory in contested races was 28 points. The report states that the most recent congressional cycle “stands out because of a particularly high number of uncontested seats and a particularly low number of competitive seats.”

That’s a problem, the group says, because there’s less incentive for voters to turn out in districts where one party dominates. Candidates from the minority party also have less incentive to run in these circumstances.

As a solution, FairVote is advocating to establish multi-member districts that use ranked choice voting, as well as requiring states to conduct congressional redistricting through independent commissions. Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.), along with other Democrats, introduced the Fair Representation Act in support of this proposal during previous sessions of Congress, but it has not seen much movement.

Here are some more findings from the report:

— Breaking it down: In 2022, 36 races were decided within a 5 percent margin — around 8 percent of House seats, according to the analysis. This number has been declining since 2018, when 44 races fell in this category. In 2020, 39 races were decided within that margin. The number of races decided with a margin between 5 and 10 percent is also declining: There were 45 of those seats in 2018, 37 in 2020, and 35 in 2022.

The number of uncontested seats and victories of 20 percent or more jumped from 265 to 291 since 2018.

Twenty-one states were home to one or more seats decided within a 5 percent margin last year. Of those, more than half had their maps drawn with a process not controlled by a partisan entity. (The Brennan Center has more in a recent analysis, with data that shows commissions and courts drew the bulk of competitive districts.)

— Coming to a consensus: The FairVote analysis also found that House members from the current Congress were elected by the smallest share of the voting age population since 2014. Just under one-quarter of the voting age population cast votes for winning candidates in House races. In 2020, over 30 percent of the voting age population cast votes for the winning House candidate.

— Incumbency advantage: Incumbents generally have an advantage over their opponents when running for reelection. Another new analysis from FairVote finds that incumbency bump hit a record low since the group began tracking it in 1996. In last year’s midterm election, incumbents got a boost of 1.3 percentage points compared to non-incumbents.

“In previous decades, incumbency awarded candidates a benefit of six or seven points. Now, as national partisanship becomes more important than local issues, incumbency is becoming less and less important,” the report says. “Most incumbents win their races, but that tends to be a result of most districts being overwhelmingly safe for one party.”

— Ones to watch: The group also tracks how many crossover representatives there are — Republicans in districts that voted for President Joe Biden, and Democrats in districts that voted for former President Donald Trump. There are 23 of those members in this Congress, one of the lowest numbers in the group’s records.

FairVote lists nine of those as the most vulnerable heading into 2024: Democratic Reps. Mary Peltola (Alaska), Jared Golden (Maine), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Wash.), Marcy Kaptur (Ohio) and Matt Cartwright (Pa.), along with Republican California Reps. John Duarte, Mike Garcia and David Valadao and Republican New York Rep. Anthony D’Esposito.

Expect big money to flow into these districts in the coming cycle. Combined, they saw around $150 million in ad spending last year, per AdImpact.

It’s Monday. Send tips and tricks to mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616.

Days until the Chicago mayoral election: 1

Days until the Wisconsin Supreme Court election: 36

Days until the Kentucky primary: 78

Days until the Mississippi primary: 162

Days until the Louisiana primary: 229

Days until the 2023 election: 253

Days until the 2024 election: 617

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CAMPAIGN INTEL

IT’S A NO FROM ME — Republican Rep. John James is not running for Michigan’s open Senate seat in 2024. James filed for reelection to the House and told The Detroit News’ Kaitlyn Buss, “The plainest way I can put it is that I’m committed to the district.”

… Democratic state Sen. Mallory McMorrow also said she wouldn’t run for the post. “In Michigan, we’ll demonstrate what’s possible when we elect Democrats,” she wrote. “We’ll show what state legislatures can do, and create a state where everyone is welcome, protected, and able to thrive. That’s why I’m exactly where I need to be, and why I won’t run for US Senate in 2024.”

… Democratic Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist is also not running for Senate. “Serving our state in Washington, DC would be a great opportunity, but instead I will keep standing tall for Michigan, right here at home, as Lieutenant Governor,” he wrote. “The Governor & I have more work to do. I look forward to working with our next US Senator to get it done.”

IN THE STATES — Florida Democrats elected former agriculture commissioner and defeated gubernatorial candidate Nikki Fried as chair of the state party. In the 2022 cycle, national Democrats largely abandoned the state, and former chair Manny Diaz stepped down in January. As POLITICO’s Gary Fineout notes, Republicans took glee in Fried’s selection, pointing to how she was soundly defeated in the Democratic gubernatorial primary last August.

… Meanwhile in Nevada, some in the progressive wing are expressing discontent with Democratic Party Chair Judith Whitmer, a progressive who wrested control of the party from mainstream Democrats two years ago. POLITICO’s Holly Otterbein reports that the disappointment with Whitmer has left the future of the Nevada Democratic Party in a state of deep uncertainty and has also sparked broader questions. For veterans of the famed Democratic machine built by former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, those questions center on how to maneuver in the critical 2024 cycle without fracturing the party further. For followers of Sen. Bernie Sanders, it’s whether it’s even worthwhile to take control of state parties at all.

RELATED: “Nevada Democrats charge that the state party at times worked against them in last year’s midterms,” NBC News’ Natasha Korecki writes.

… Jeanna Repass was elected chair of the Kansas Democratic Party, becoming the first Black woman to hold the post. Repass lost her bid for secretary of state last year by around 20 points.

CHICAGO SCRAMBLE — No one has a clear opening to win the Chicago mayor’s race this week. The one near-certain about the race? There’s probably going to be a runoff on April 4. Read more from POLITICO’s Shia Kapos.

2024 WATCH — Republican Tre Pennie filed to run for TX-03, currently held by freshman Republican Rep. Keith Self. Pennie ran for TX-30 in 2020 and lost by almost 60 points to incumbent Democratic Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson.

Presidential Big Board

— A number of longtime backers of former President Donald Trump showed up at Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ donor retreat this weekend. Here’s the who’s who, courtesy of POLITICO’s Alex Isenstadt.

… RELATED: “From Palm Beach to Staten Island, DeSantis makes 2024 moves on Trump’s turf,” by The Washington Post’s Hannah Knowles and Josh Dawsey.

— Republican Nikki Haley’s campaign isn’t releasing its fundraising numbers until the April fundraising deadline, per the AP’s Meg Kinnard.

… Wall Street executives are hosting a fundraiser for Haley, CNBC’s Brian Schwartz reports. Tickets range between $3,300 and $6,600.

— Republican presidential contender Vivek Ramaswamy said he expects to make a “meaningful investment” on his bid, Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser reports. Ramaswamy, who is reportedly worth hundreds of millions of dollars, didn’t give a dollar amount of how much he’d be willing to spend.

— “Donald Trump’s team has launched a nationwide campaign to buttress his chances of getting sympathetic delegates at next year’s nominating convention and identify opportunities to shape party rules that could help his campaign,” The Washington Post’s Michael Scherer, Josh Dawsey and Maeve Reston write. “His team has invited state party officials to Mar-a-Lago, arranged private meet-and-greets between state leaders and Trump as he travels, endorsed state officials they believe will be supportive of him and met with senior Republican Party officials in Washington to discuss how the delegate selection process will unfold.”

— Republicans who want to take part in the first presidential primary debate in Milwaukee later this year will have to sign a pledge promising to support whoever wins the nomination, RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel said on Sunday. McDaniel said Republican voters are tired of “infighting” within the party, and “want to see us come together.”

— Seventeen members of New York’s congressional delegation are pushing for President Joe Biden to host the Democratic National Convention. “Though conventional wisdom holds that gathering in a swing state could provide an electoral edge, we suggest selecting a tried-and-true Democratic state which will allow our party to play to these historic strengths and victories,” they wrote in a letter obtained by Punchbowl News.

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POLL POSITION

— “Jeff Landry had a big lead over his Republican opponents last month in the governor’s race,” The Times-Picayune/The Advocate’s Tyler Bridges writes about a poll taken for Baton Rouge businessperson Richard Lipsey that he shared with the paper. “Landry scored 23%, far ahead of the 5% garnered by both Treasurer John Schroder and state Sen. Sharon Hewitt. … The poll also gave 20% to Gary Chambers, a Democrat who finished second to John Kennedy when he won re-election to the Senate last year. In an interview, Chambers said he has ruled out running if Shawn Wilson, the retiring state transportation secretary, enters the race, a move that is expected within two weeks. Wilson tied Schroder and Hewitt with 5% in the poll.”

THE CASH DASH

— The New Jersey legislature is set to vote on a bill today that will overhaul the state’s campaign finance laws. Here’s a breakdown from the New Jersey Globe’s Joey Fox.

— Rep. Josh Harder (D-Calif.) is fundraising off of not running for Senate. “By now you’ve probably heard that Senator Dianne Feinstein is retiring after an incredible career serving our country. This also means there is about to be an open Senate seat in my home state of California,” he wrote in a fundraising email. “So now it’s my turn to make a major announcement… I have decided I will NOT be running for Senate this year (nor was I ever really considering it.)” (complete with laughing emojis).

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: “I suspect it’s going to be a wild and wooly race.” (Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) on the GOP presidential primary)

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