Can McCarthy pull his bargain across the finish line?

A play-by-play preview of the day’s congressional news

May 31, 2023 View in browser   By Katherine Tully-McManus and Daniella Diaz With help from Jordain Carney, Nicholas Wu, Olivia Beavers and Sarah Ferris DEBT CLOCK — There are SIX DAYS (including today) until the earliest possible federal default, according to the Treasury Department’s most recent projection. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy was confident Tuesday night that the debt limit deal would clear the House. (Francis Chung/POLITICO) | AP DEBT DEAL HITS THE FLOOR — The bipartisan debt limit deal cleared its first hurdle, fending off a fizzled rebellion in the House Rules committee, and is now headed for its next test: winning approval in the House. The package appears to be on track to get the votes needed from both sides of the aisle to clear the House, though around 30 House Republicans went public Tuesday with their intentions to vote against the bill with dozens more saying they remained undecided. That is putting the whip operations in overdrive to secure all the votes they can ahead of the vote, which isn’t expected until about 8:30 p.m. tonight. “Tom Emmer is not here right now because there's whipping is still going on,” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) told reporters at a 10 p.m. press conference last night, excusing the GOP whip’s absence. “There were members this morning who were undecided…by tonight they came up and spoke and said that they're now going to vote for the bill.” Scalise said he anticipates that pattern continuing. Rep. Garret Graves (R-La.), one of Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s (R-Calif.) key negotiators on the deal, made his pitch to his fellow Republicans Tuesday night: “You gave the speaker a strong hand, please stick with us now.” Floor plan: The deal, struck over the weekend between McCarthy and President Joe Biden, will get just one hour of debate on the floor equally divided between Republicans and Democrats. Though before that, the two parties will need to debate and vote on the rule that lays out those parameters. Republicans are expected to need some Democratic help there. We’ll be keeping an eye out on the floor for McCarthy using his so-called “magic minute,” a House custom that allows leaders to talk for as long as they want when they are recognized for their one minute of floor time. House Republican leaders are aiming to deliver a majority of the majority for the deal on the floor, but would like to see even stronger GOP backing. But don’t expect Dems to rush in. While the final vote of the day usually means members press the button, turn and run, Democrats may linger longer. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) made clear his caucus will want to see what kind of numbers the House GOP can put up. “It’s our expectation that House Republicans will keep their promise and deliver at least 150 votes as it relates to an agreement that they themselves negotiated with the White House.” But he added that “House Democrats will make sure that the country does not default.” House Democrats are set to meet this morning at their caucus meeting with John Podesta, a key Biden advisor on clean energy, Deputy Director of the National Economic Council Aviva Arnon-Dine, Office of Management and Budget Director Shalanda Young and counselor to the president Steve Ricchetti. McCarthy’s leadership on the line? The right flank of McCarthy’s conference is furious about how the debt limit deal turned out and at least one member, Rep. Dan Bishop of North Carolina, has said he’s thinking about calling for snap vote to strip McCarthy of his hard-won speakership. But other conservatives, even those trying to tank the bill, like Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), don’t think McCarthy is truly at risk. "I don't think so. He's genuine in what he said," Norman said leaving the conference meeting Tuesday night. And asked if he wants more Republicans to join him to vote against the bill, he said: "Good people can disagree." Some Democratic appropriators aren’t happy with the bill: Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), the ranking member of the Appropriations committee, told reporters she has “serious concerns” about the legislation but hadn’t decided yet whether she was going to vote against it. Unsettled score: The Congressional Budget Office released its estimates of the impact that the debt deal would have on the debt, spending and other budgetary effects. The CBO projects that the debt package would expand the number of federal food aid recipients due to the expansion of benefits for veterans and homeless Americans. The expanded eligibility would outweigh the new work requirements for Americans aged 49 and 54 receiving certain benefits. Some House Republicans told our colleague Meredith Lee Hill last night that the CBO is wrong, but there’s a long (and bipartisan) history of trashing CBO scores when they don’t fit the narrative. Not every member will be voting Wednesday. Rep Angie Craig (D-Minn.) will miss the debt ceiling vote after tripping and injuring her ankle, her Chief of Staff Nick Coe said in a statement Tuesday. She will need surgery and her physician advised her not to fly. And Rep. Deborah Ross (D-N.C.) said Tuesday in a tweet that she tested positive for Covid and can’t attend votes as a result. There is one member who will vote Tuesday, however – Rep. David Cicilline (D-R.I.), who will cast his last vote for the debt limit legislation before his resignation. (Don’t miss POLITICO Magazine’s exit interview with him.) What does this all mean for the margins? Well, that means the simple majority of lawmakers needed to pass the legislation ticks down as absences tick up.   DON’T MISS POLITICO’S HEALTH CARE SUMMIT: The Covid-19 pandemic helped spur innovation in health care, from the wide adoption of telemedicine, health apps and online pharmacies to mRNA vaccines. But what will the next health care innovations look like? Join POLITICO on Wednesday June 7 for our Health Care Summit to explore how tech and innovation are transforming care and the challenges ahead for access and delivery in the United States. REGISTER NOW.     GOOD MORNING! Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Wednesday, May 31, where today is National Macaroon Day, which means your Huddle hosts will be on the lookout for some macaroons to celebrate. SENATE STEPS IN —  We don’t want to get too ahead of ourselves but since we do expect the legislation to get through the House with bipartisan support, the next step will be in the Senate – and that could be a doozy. Burgess and Daniella laid out in a story Tuesday evening how conservatives in the Senate could run the procedural clock when the bill hits the chamber. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) can try to minimize debate time and keep things moving but, in all likelihood, will have to strike a deal of his own on the debt limit. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) said Tuesday evening he wants to vote on an alternative debt ceiling proposal that would raise the debt limit for a shorter time span while imposing hundreds of billions in budget cuts. He said he won’t hold up the time agreement as long as he gets a vote on his amendment, admitting his amendment won’t pass but said people need to see it get a vote. But for the most part, after surveying dozens of senators at Tuesday's votes, the majority appears confident this will pass before the nation defaults on its debt. Graves told his fellow House Republicans Tuesday night that the GOP negotiators have talked to Senate Democrats and Arizona Independent Kyrsten Sinema about what needed to get in the deal to make it work in the upper chamber. SENATE STAKES STUDENT LOANS  — The debt limit deal would force the administration to resume collecting federal student loan payments and interest for millions of Americans at the end of the summer, but the Senate is expected to take action this week on a separate bill to overturn President Joe Biden’s student debt relief plan and nullify the pause on monthly student loan payments and interest. CONTEMPT CALL — FBI Director Christopher Wray will speak with Oversight Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) and Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) as Republicans push for the bureau to hand over a document that, according to the two GOP lawmakers, allegedly links then-Vice President Joe Biden to a “bribery scheme.” (According to an Oversight Committee Democratic spokesperson, Comer rejected a request by ranking member Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) to join the call.) The call comes after Comer said Tuesday that he would move forward with holding Wray in contempt of Congress after the FBI “informed the Committee that it will not provide the unclassified documents subpoenaed by the Committee.” But Wray will use Wednesday’s call to explain “how we plan to make …[additional] information available to the committee,” according to a letter to the committee chair obtained by POLITICO. Christopher Dunham, the FBI’s acting assistant director, wrote that the FBI has “identified additional information that we are prepared to offer the Committee as an extraordinary accommodation” and that it is “committed to providing you access to the information in a format and setting that maintains confidentiality and protects the important sensitivities and interests.” STEWART SIGNING OFF — Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Utah) plans to resign from Congress, according to a Republican familiar with the matter, and the announcement could come as soon as this morning. The Salt Lake Tribune scooped the resignation news on Tuesday. Stewart successor: Picking a new member to represent Utah’s 2nd district will require a special election, which Gov. Spencer Cox will have seven days to set the schedule for once Stewart makes his plans official. Utah state law dictates that the dates will match the municipal primary and general elections unless the state legislature sets aside funds to hold the election on a different day. HUDDLE HOTDISH Beauty in the Rayburn garage: Whoever was practicing their flute in the Rayburn parking garage on Tuesday, it sounded beautiful! J.P. Freire, comms director for House Ways and Means Republicans, captured the lovely sounds. Senate GOP enters late 20th century: The internal Senate Republican Policy Committee feed of action on the Senate floor now has “something radical - entering the 1990s or so tech speaking” reported WaPo’s Paul Kane on Tuesday. The innovation? A running tally of each senator’s vote during roll calls. QUICK LINKS  Scoop from Olivia and Ally: Republican candidate accused of lying about military record ends comeback bid Shalanda Young emerges as quietly essential figure in debt deal, from Tyler Pager at the Washington Post Opinion | Asians are part of the American story. They deserve a place on the Mall., from Elaine Chao TRANSITIONS  Lauren Sierra is now press secretary for Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-Texas). She was previously an anchor/reporter at KTXS-TV in Abilene, Texas. Sydney Petersen, is leaving her role as press secretary to Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) and starts later this week as senior media relations manager for the National Women’s Law Center. Jess Wysocky is now legislative director for Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass). Most recently she was Senior Legislative Assistant for Rep. Nikema Williams (D-Ga.) and is an alum of Senator Alex Padilla (D-Calif), Rep. Harley Rouda (D-Calif.) and Rep. Mike Thompson (D-Calif.).   GET READY FOR GLOBAL TECH DAY: Join POLITICO Live as we launch our first Global Tech Day alongside London Tech Week on Thursday, June 15. Register now for continuing updates and to be a part of this momentous and program-packed day! From the blockchain, to AI, and autonomous vehicles, technology is changing how power is exercised around the world, so who will write the rules? REGISTER HERE.     TODAY IN CONGRESS The House convenes at 2 p.m. for a legislative session. First votes are expected at approximately 3:30 p.m. and last votes are expected at approximately 8:30 p.m. The Senate convenes at 10 a.m. and will recess from 12:30 p.m. to 2:15 p.m. to allow for weekly caucus meetings. The Senate will vote at 2:30 p.m. on a motion to proceed to a resolution to roll back the Biden administration’s debt relief policies. AROUND THE HILL 10 a.m. Senate HELP Committee hearing on meeting the needs of working families and child care workers. (430 Dirksen) 10 a.m. Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on “From Farm to Table: Immigrant Workers Get the Job Done.” (216 Hart) 11 a.m. Jeffries and other Democratic leaders hold a post-meeting press conference. (Studio A) 2:15 p.m. Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on accountability for Russian atrocities in Ukraine. (419 Dirksen) TRIVIA TUESDAY’S WINNER: David Keller correctly answered that Congress made Memorial Day a federal holiday in 1971 to be commemorated each year on the last Monday of May. TODAY’S QUESTION from David: Of the 13 original colonies, which colony was the first to declare independence from Britain and the last to sign the U.S. Constitution? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your answers to ktm@politico.com. GET HUDDLE emailed to your phone each morning. Follow Katherine and Daneilla on Twitter @ktullymcmanus and @DaniellaMicaela   Follow us

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