Can't look away

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Jun 28, 2024 View in browser   By Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Kyle Duggan Programming note: Ottawa Playbook won’t publish on Monday, July 1. We’ll be back in your inboxes first thing Tuesday morning. Happy Canada Day!  Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Ottawa Playbook | Follow Politico Canada Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let’s get to it. In today's edition: → The 2024 presidential contest was just shaken to its core. → Playbook crashed a watch party in Hintonburg. → “Jaw on floor.” 14 Canadian takes on a 90-minute disaster. 2024 WATCH President Joe Biden exits the stage during a break in a presidential debate with former President Donald Trump last night in Atlanta. | Gerald Herbert/AP From POLITICO’s Global Editor-in-Chief JOHN HARRIS:  STATE OF PLAY — There’s no point in hedging: The televised debate between JOSEPH BIDEN and DONALD TRUMP was a disaster for the incumbent. The possibility of a second Trump term has never looked more plausible. Biden’s halting, meandering performance — his words delivered in a hoarse, faint voice that occasionally wandered into incoherence — sparked immediate speculation that Democrats might yet coax Biden to reconsider his re-election plans and open the way to an open convention to find a new nominee. For now, that’s still a fanciful scenario. — But here is the unmistakable reality: On a night when the 81-year-old Biden’s principal aim was to quiet doubts about his physical and mental command and his ability to wage a winning fight against Trump, he achieved the exact opposite. Here in our Washington newsroom, reporters were hearing in real-time from Democratic sources bemoaning Biden’s performance. We heard also from several diplomatic sources with a common message: We may not like what Trump says, but at least we can understand what he says. — Make no mistake, by any conventional standard of debating, Trump himself was hardly a model of coherence. He was a firehose of insults, unsupported assertions, and sentence fragments that didn’t quite parse. There is no question, however, that he won the stylistic contest. Only three years younger than Biden, he was far more animated and seemingly at ease. From a global perspective, Ukraine was the most prominent issue. Biden spoke of his campaign to unite the West in opposition to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion, and taunted Trump, “This is a guy who wants to pull out of NATO.” Trump seemed unfazed, saying Biden’s bungled withdrawal from Afghanistan invited Putin’s aggression and said the invasion would never have happened if he was in office: “He knew not to play games with me.” — The debate was also a historical milestone: Surely the most juvenile, least edifying presidential debate of the modern era. Both candidates called each other criminals, with Biden noting accurately that only one candidate was “a convicted felon,” clashed over whether Trump had or had not slept with a porn star, and snarled not at all playfully at each other over who was the better golfer. Trump has “the morals of an alley cat,” Biden said. From Biden’s perspective, his only hope is that public attitudes about both men are so fixed that even a pitiful performance has no real effect on the race. Few Democrats we spoke in Washington and state capitals are very confident of that. — Top of POLITICO this morning: Democrats really have no way to spin this. — In related reading: Here’s how Democrats could replace Biden. Talk of the town Democrats in Ottawa gathered at the Carleton Tavern to watch the presidential debate. | POLITICO Canada DEBATE NIGHT IN HINTONBURG — The Democrats Abroad gang who gathered at the Carleton Tavern struggled to cheer for their man during most of the debate. The anti-Trump crowd a few dozen strong managed a few guffaws at their foil's expense. But mocking DONALD TRUMP's lies and exaggerations did not prove sustainable. Mostly, the American Democrats and their Canadian friends appeared profoundly bemused. The biggest win of the night for the Ottawa-based Dems might've been the first time Trump's mic was cut and cameras cut away with his mouth agape. Ha ha, they reacted. But the crowd barely applauded Biden during 90-ish minutes of personal attacks, rebuttals and rejoinders. Bemusement turned to boredom, occasionally interrupted by a laugh or two. Whispers and head-shaking punctuated the malaise. Not everybody stayed until the end. — In related viewing: Highlights from the first presidential debate, in 180 seconds. HALLWAY CONVERSATION SHOCK AND AWE — Gripped with the televised train wreck that hit fast, then stretched out for forever? Other politics addicts across Canada couldn’t look away, either. Playbook gathered some initial impressions on the debate, edited for length and clarity: → ROLAND PARIS, director of University of Ottawa’s graduate school of public and international affairs: Oh, god. Well, it was painful to watch it — Trump's lies and Biden's feebleness. But I'm not convinced it will move the needle one way or another. So many Americans know these two men and most of them already know which one they will support. → SHACHI KURL, president of the Angus Reid Institute: Oh my god! It feels like it was over in the first five minutes — that very first moment when Biden completely lost his train of thought. I am sure many people watching saw that moment happen and said to themselves, “Oh, no.” The debate was not substantive. It didn't really showcase strengths of either candidate, and it reached a low point when they started chirping each other over their golf swings. But the theater of televised debates is often not about substance, it’s about impressions. It's how those moments become clipped, get circulated on social media, become part of ad campaigns on network television or other places. Biden's performance has the potential to be just devastating. → SCOTT REID, principal at Feschuk.Reid: The first five minutes of the debate was as catastrophic a political event as I've ever witnessed. Biden arrived hoping to lay to rest questions about his capacity to serve a second term as president and he's now triggered a crisis in the Democratic Party about his ability to proceed toward the nomination. He looked old. He looked frail. At times he looked confused. His voice was raspy and weak. Trump's irrationality and rambling and rage was entirely eclipsed by the spectacle of Biden's failure. It’s an absolute nightmare scenario for Democrats. I said this in advance many, many times: I fear the stakes of this gamble for Biden were high. I never dreamed it would be this bad. Jaw on floor. → YAROSLAV BARAN, co-founder of the Pendulum Group: I suspect most Americans watching this debate tonight were thinking, wow, out of 330 million Americans, it's unfortunate that this is our choice. Biden looked very old and highly scripted. Trump looked far more natural. Biden losing his train of thought talking about taxing billionaires and trailing off into his plea about Medicare — that was a bad moment. It set the tone for the evening. I can't see how the Democrats would be thinking they had a good night. Both candidates went into this needing to fight the dominant negative narrative against them: Biden had to fight that he's not of sound mind and Trump needed to fight that he's unhinged. Biden didn't hit that one out of the park. In contrast,this is probably the calmest, the most well behaved we've ever seen Trump in this kind of setting. Interesting that Trump mentioned Ronald Reagan several times in a positive light. That signals he very much realizes there's a narrative within his own party that there's the traditional Ronald Reagan Republicans versus the wrecking ball, populist Republicans, and he’s clearly trying to fight that and reconcile those two factions. — Lessons for Canada: “Here's the parallel,” Baran says. “This debate for the Dems and St. Paul’s by-election for the Liberals. Many Democrats will now be privately talking about whether they have time to replace their candidate before the election. The same thing appears to be happening here after the St. Paul’s by-election. In both cases, the quiet conclusion of partisans is: We needed to do better.” Reid disagrees: “There is no analog to be drawn between Joe Biden and Justin Trudeau. People that might say tonight was a burning bush, warning leaders about knowing when it's time to pack it in — I think would be overreaching. This wasn't about popularity, it wasn't even about performance. It was about capacity.” Reid says there are profound consequences and implications for Canada. “The likelihood of a second Trump presidency just skyrocketed. The need to fortify ourselves against that threat … has become more pronounced,” he said. “Our political center of gravity just shifted because a Trump presidency almost immediately overwhelms any other political issue.” — In related reading: US allies say Trump-Biden debate ‘isn’t a great look for America.’ Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks as he participates in the first presidential debate of the 2024 elections. | Christian Monterrosa/AFP via Getty Images MEANWHILE ON X —  A Top 10 from the #cdnpoli crowd: CHARLES ADLER: “Joe Biden doesn’t need an election. He needs a priest.” THOMAS JUNEAU: “The one good thing about having an early debate, in June instead of September, is that it might just leave enough time for the Democrats to find another nominee." BRUCE ANDERSON: “In 40 years I’ve never seen a disaster like Biden is looking like tonight.” ELAMIN ABDELMAHMOUD: “Everyone expected it to be bad and it turned out so much worse.” KEN BOESSENKOOL: “There’s only one human in the US that could make Trump, a global threat to democracy and all things decent, president again. And he’s on the stage with him.” GRAHAM FOX: “Dems need to nominate someone else from the floor of the convention. This is a disaster.” JANET BROWN: “If Monday was a wake-up call for the Trudeau Liberals, this is a four alarm blaze for the Biden Democrats.” J.D.M. STEWART: “It may well go down as the worst debate performance in history.” DIANA SWAIN: “400M people and this is their best two. My god.” THE STRATEGISTS: “On the plus side it seems unlikely either of these guys could find Canada on a map, let alone invade us.” — In related reading: Democrats consider the unthinkable: It’s time for Biden to go. Where the leaders are — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in Toronto. Markham-Unionville MP PAUL CHIANG hosts the PM for an evening fundraiser at the Hilton Toronto/Markham Suites Conference Centre & Spa. Trudeau speaks at 8:15 p.m. From a Liberal press release on the event: “To facilitate media coverage, members of the press are invited to cover remarks by Mr. Trudeau.” — Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Toronto with no public events scheduled. — Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE has not shared a public schedule. — Nothing yet from NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH either. — Same with Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY. DULY NOTED 9 a.m. The Parliamentary Budget Officer publishes a report on the Polar Icebreaker Project. 10 a.m. (11 a.m. AT) National Defense Minister BILL BLAIR will be at the Irving Halifax Shipyard to mark the beginning of construction on Canada’s new surface combatant fleet. The government is billing it the “largest shipbuilding initiative in Canada since the Second World War.” 10 a.m. Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE will be at Rio Tinto’s facility in Saguenay, Quebec, to make an announcement with his provincial counterpart PIERRE FITZGIBBON about the company’s aluminum production. WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN UP: Easy. DON STEWART, by 590 votes. DOWN: ELECTIONS CANADA, which proved no match against the Longest Ballot Committee — the protest group behind the 84-name ballot in Monday’s by-election in Toronto-St. Paul’s. More on the ballot via JUSTIN LING in the Star. MEDIA ROOM — On THE DECIBEL pod this morning: A crushing loss is making Trudeau’s Liberals rethink the future. — Top of NEWSWATCH this hour: Former Trudeau minister CATHERINE MCKENNA says Liberals need a new leader. — “How many 416 seats are now in play?” ÉRIC GRENIER and PHILIPPE J. FOURNIER discuss on their podcast. — “Even Ottawa feels it now. The world is changing,” IAN BRODIE writes at the start of “The Thursday Question.” — Calgarians know how to show up in a crisis. Why don’t their leaders? PETER MENZIES asks on The Line. PROZONE Don’t miss the latest POLITICO Canada newsletter for Pro subscribers via ZI-ANN LUM: USMCA review's bilat pain points. In other news for Pro readers:   — Fact checking Trump’s energy claims. — Ukraine’s ‘people’s satellite’ wreaks havoc on Russian targets. — Climate litigation is booming worldwide — report. — Support for renewables, EVs falling among Americans, Pew finds. — Mexico stresses corn’s cultural importance in USMCA defense. PLAYBOOKERS Birthdays: HBD to Cabmin KARINA GOULD, Waabi’s COLIN MCKAY, former GG DAVID JOHNSTON, former parliamentarians LEONA AGLUKKAQ and PEGGY NASH. On Saturday: Cape Breton University President DAVID DINGWALL and former Ontario Cabmin JOHN MILLOY. CHARLIE WATT, former senator from Nunavik, Quebec, is 80! On Sunday: Atlantic writer DAVID FRUM, former MP ALICE WONG, Representative of the Government in the Senate of Canada MARC GOLD. On Canada Day: Former MP SCOTT DUVALL and MP ALEXIS BRUNELLE-DUCEPPE.  Birthdays, gatherings, social notices for this community: Send them our way. Spotted: JOYCE NAPIER, MELLISSA FUNG and STEPHEN POLOZ among the 83 new appointments to the Order of Canada … B.C. Premier DAVID EBY announcing the birth of his daughter GWENDOLYN KAY EBY: “9 lbs 6 oz. Everyone is happy and healthy.” NDP MP HEATHER MCPHERSON and her family celebrating the last day of school with poutine and ALICE COOPER cranked up loud. Ottawa Mayor MARK SUTCLIFFE, in Baltimore with 22 other mayors from across North and South America, and MIKE BLOOMBERG, at the Bloomberg Philanthropies City Data Alliance learning about implementing data and AI techniques at city halls. Bloomberg Philanthropies took some official snaps. A UPC video seeking to frame provincial NDP Leader NAHEED NENSHI as “Justin Trudeau’s choice for Alberta.” Movers and shakers: ALEX MUNTER is stepping down as the head of CHEO to become CEO of the Canadian Medical Association. KATHERINE CUPLINSKAS is now deputy director of communications in CHRYSTIA FREELAND’s office … DAVE CARROLL is the Conservative’s candidate in Sackville-Bedford-Preston (formerly Sackville-Preston-Chezzetcook) where Liberal MP DARRELL SAMSON is the incumbent. It’s JENNIFER ROBSON’s last day as director of Carleton’s Clayton H. Riddell Graduate Program in Political Management before taking a sabbatical year. She’s heading to be the McConnell visiting scholar at the McGill’s Max Bell School of Public Policy and will also be a visiting scholar with the Institute for Research on Public Policy. AARON WHERRY is a new fellow in the Riddell program. ALANA CAHILL is taking leave from her role as NDP DComm for family reasons. Dep. DComm NINA AMROV will field media inquiries in the meantime. VINCE GASPARRO has been appointed to the board of directors of the Canada Infrastructure Bank. Send Playbookers tips to ottawaplaybook@politico.com . TRIVIA Thursday’s answer: JOSH MCJANNETT, a former political staffer who once worked for a chief government whip, co-founded DOMINION CITY BREWING in Ottawa's east end. Props to GREG MACEACHERN, PATRICK DION, ALEX STEINHOUSE, LAURA PAYTON, WILL BULMER, CAMERON RYAN, CHRISTOPHER LAWTON, ALEX BALLINGALL, JASON MARSHALL, CHRIS RANDS, FERNANDO MELO, MARK MAHABIR, SHAWN ABEL, ANDREW BALFOUR, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, AMY SCANLON BOUGHNER, PEGGY MORGAN and BARB WRIGHT. Friday’s question: Name the first person in Canadian electoral history to receive zero votes in a contested riding. Answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Writing Tuesday’s Ottawa Playbook: NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.   Follow us on Twitter Nick Taylor-Vaisey @TaylorVaisey Sue Allan @susan_allan Kyle Duggan @Kyle_Duggan Zi-Ann Lum @ziannlum POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters Follow us

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