FULL STEAM AHEAD: Democrats blew it in New York two years ago, losing so many seats they helped the GOP seize control of the House. Now party leaders are on the offensive. State Democratic Party Chair Jay Jacobs personally supported both John Avlon and John Mannion, thinking the pair, more than their vanquished primary opponents, would give the party the best shot at flipping seats in November. Jacobs also bucked incumbent Rep. Jamaal Bowman by boosting George Latimer, who went on to win the primary. It’s a safe seat, but Jacobs was relieved Tuesday night, telling Playbook he thinks Bowman’s ouster will help Democrats win elsewhere. “It’s a counter to the false Republican narrative that the Democratic Party is beholden to or bending to the will of the socialists and the far-left or other extreme interests,” Jacobs said. “They are wholly unattractive to Democratic voters or independent voters in the center.” New York Democrats are determined not to repeat the midterms. They say they’re being purposeful and see reasons for optimism: — The state party’s coordinated campaign — new this year, for a state not known for collaboration — is in the midst of hiring organizers to work on turning out voters in six swing districts in November. — Top Democratic operatives emphasize that they’ve been planning, and didn’t wait until after the primaries to build support (unlike in past cycles, it’s suggested). — Gov. Kathy Hochul has been aggressively fundraising, bringing in more than $4 million in the last year, a spokesperson said. One April fundraiser in Columbia County featured Hochul and House candidate Josh Riley, who’s challenging Rep. Marc Molinaro. It brought in more than $100,000 in an afternoon. — Battleground New York, a new coalition focused on helping Democrats in the same House races, is in the field registering voters, and says it has raised more than $5 million in a year. — Dems also saw a promising sign for keeping Rep. Pat Ryan’s seat Tuesday: Turnout in the Democratic primary for an Ulster County Assembly seat topped 30 percent, more than double the rate for the rest of the state. New York Republicans, on the other hand, are mostly playing defense. But they, too, have some reason to be optimistic going into November. Redistricting could have been devastating for the GOP. Instead, the maps only made changes on the margins that left all the battlegrounds in play, and made some GOP-held districts — like those of Reps. Nick LaLota and Molinaro — marginally redder. Recent polling has shown former President Donald Trump gained support in New York since 2020, when he lost to President Joe Biden by 23 points. That means Trump could be less of an anchor on down-ballot Republicans. The GOP is also publicly pointing to an internal poll from last month showing Rep. Anthony D’Esposito up 7 points on Democrat Laura Gillen — though a fundraising memo from her campaign, obtained by Playbook, suggests their internal polling has the race tied. Republicans also managed to avoid primaries in the swing districts. Avlon and Mannion are coming out of primaries with far less cash on hand than their GOP opponents, and after having fellow Democrats attack them for months. “John Mannion leaves this primary bloodied, bruised and broke,” National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Savannah Viar said in a statement. And she pushed back on Democrats’ arguments that the primaries elevated moderates who can flip seats in November. “I don’t think there’s been a general about face,” she said. “I think there are still plenty of things voters won’t like.” — Jeff Coltin, with reporting by Nick Reisman and Bill Mahoney |
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