| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg | |  Predictions of an all-out war are “exaggerated,” National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters today in a call, simply citing “conversations we’ve been having.” | Joshua Roberts/Getty Images | With help from Eric Bazail-Eimil, Joe Gould, Miles J. Herszenhorn and Isabella Ramírez Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric The Biden administration is downplaying concerns about a wider conflict between Israel and Hezbollah militants breaking out, even as some Israeli officials signal that fierce retaliation could come soon. Israel and the U.S. have blamed the Lebanon-based militant group for an attack over the weekend that killed a dozen children in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Hezbollah has strongly denied any involvement. On Sunday night, Israel’s security cabinet gave Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU and Defense Minister YOAV GALLANT authorization for a military attack in response. Senior Israeli officials are publicly using strong language to warn Hezbollah that more fighting could break out at any time. “We are on the precipice of potentially a regional or world war. Iran is behind all the aggression in the region and their ambitions are global,” FLEUR HASSAN-NAHOUM, Israel's special envoy for foreign affairs, told NatSec Daily. “The murder of those innocent children has crossed a red line.” House Foreign Affairs ranking Democrat GREGORY MEEKS (D-N.Y.) also warned that the region is teetering between peace and an “all-out war” while speaking on CNN this morning. But predictions of an all-out war are “exaggerated,” National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters today in a call, simply citing “conversations we’ve been having.” “We still believe a diplomatic solution can work,” Kirby added. “That's where the locus of our energies ought to be — not on a military solution, certainly not on a military solution that involves directly the United States military.” As the temperature rises in the region, so do concerns: Turkish President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN threatened on Sunday to send troops into Israel to intervene on behalf of Palestinians. Germany today called on Iran and others to prevent escalation, and airlines suspended routes and canceled flights to Beirut today amid fears of escalation. But the White House is “trying not to feed into Israeli right-wing rhetoric about the inevitability of going to war,” AARON DAVID MILLER, a former Middle East peace negotiator, told NatSec Daily. “No point in doomsaying … Escalation isn’t inevitable.” A pair of Israeli officials told Reuters that Israel wants to hurt Hezbollah without sparking a regional war. Still, Hassan-Nahoum said “Iran-backed Hezbollah knows what it has to do if they don’t want a war.” Lebanese Foreign Minister ABDALLAH BOUHABIB said the militants will withdraw if Israel stops attacking them. JONATHAN LORD, director of the Middle East Security program at the Center for a New American Security, said that however Israel responds, “we’ll have to wait and see” what Hezbollah’s reaction entails. “Israel isn’t likely going to initiate a ground invasion of Lebanon with so much of its force engaged in Gaza,” Lord told NatSec Daily. “But I’d be watching carefully for signs of the Gaza operation winding down, the resting and refitting of forces, and the re-positioning of those forces in the north.” He added: “Israel isn’t there yet, but I wouldn’t be sanguine about the situation.”
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: F-35: The Most Advanced, Survivable and Connected Fighter Aircraft in the World
The F-35 securely connects high-tech platforms and seamlessly shares information across every domain to deliver what’s needed for a successful mission. Learn more. | | | | | A MADURO WIN? Venezuelan President NICOLÁS MADURO declared victory in Sunday’s presidential election, but few people are convinced the result is accurate. The regime-controlled National Electoral Council said Maduro won 51 percent of the popular vote, versus 44 percent for opposition candidate EDMUNDO GONZÁLEZ. But that number has been called into question by analysts who point out the rest of the vote tally exceeded 100 percent and exit polls and early results indicated the opposition would win in a landslide. The leaders of Argentina, Uruguay, Costa Rica and Panamá have openly rejected the results. The U.S. and Chile are voicing reservations about potential voter fraud and counting issues and Colombia and Spain issued their own calls to the Maduro government to count every vote and produce receipts confirming the results. Scroll down to On the Hill to get more reaction from Washington. BIDEN’S GOLAN HEIGHTS STANCE: The Biden administration sees the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights as part of Israel, carrying over a controversial Trump administration stance, NSC spokesperson Kirby confirmed today. “Our policy on the Golan Heights has not changed under this administration,” Kirby told reporters, noting that Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN also seemingly reaffirmed the policy in 2021 (but stopped short of endorsing Trump’s decision). The Golan is important to Israeli security, Kirby added. Pushed on whether the U.S. sees the Golan Heights as part of northern Israel, Kirby said, “Yes.” The area has been internationally considered part of Syria's territory since the country's founding in 1946, but it has been occupied by Israel since the Six-Day War in 1967. Then-President DONALD TRUMP first recognized the territory as part of Israel in 2019, a dramatic shift from longstanding U.S. policy. While the Biden administration has maintained this stance, many were surprised to see U.S. officials stressing it after the apparent Hezbollah strike. RUSSIA ON THE ADVANCE: Russian troops captured two more front-line villages in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, a Ukrainian military official confirmed today, according to The Associated Press’ SAMYA KULLAB. The Russian Defense Ministry in recent days claimed its forces had captured the villages, but Ukrainian commanders did not immediately confirm the battlefield setback. The loss of the villages comes as Ukraine has struggled to defend the front lines against Russia’s summer offensive. On a related note, the Biden administration today announced a new security package for Ukraine that will send munitions, artillery rounds and anti-tank weapons to support Kyiv’s efforts to defend against Russia’s offensive. The weapons and artillery are desperately needed by Ukraine’s military; the Ukrainian deputy battalion commander who confirmed the villages’ loss partially blamed the setback on the soldiers’ inadequate weapons. IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @JGedeon1 and @mherszenhorn.
| | | | Live briefings, policy trackers, and procedural, industry, and people intelligence from POLITICO Pro Analysis gives you the insights you need to focus your policy strategy this election cycle. Secure your seat. | | | | | | | | | HARRIS' BALANCING ACT: Israel is becoming a tricky and volatile issue for VP KAMALA HARRIS to navigate in the early days of her presidential campaign, our own BLAKE JONES, SALLY GOLDENBERG, EUGENE DANIELS and SHIA KAPOS report. On the GOP side, The New York Post lambasted Harris over her positioning on the matter, in screaming headlines and a string of negative stories following her decision to skip Netanyahu’s speech before Congress Wednesday: “ISRAEL LEFT BEHIND,” the tabloid cover blared that morning, above a photo of Harris. At the same time, left-flank Democrats are strategizing how best to use their leverage over an issue that resonates deeply among coveted voting blocs. “Every time we’ve talked in the past six months about the genocide and who’s responsible and who’s complicit and who has blood on their hands, we say ‘Genocide Joe’ and ‘Killer Kamala,’” HATEM ABUDAYYEH, chair of the U.S. Palestinian Community Network and spokesperson for the March on the DNC group protesting the White House’s Israel policy, told our colleagues. There are differing views on Harris among progressives: “It has not gone unnoticed that Harris has been more empathetic to the Palestinian cause than Biden. Empathetic to student protesters and mothers,” one person part of the Uncommitted movement in Michigan told our colleagues.
| | | | The space economy is already woven into our lives in ways we don't always appreciate, creating a global backbone for communications, media, data, science and defense. It's also becoming an increasingly competitive zone among nations - and a venue for complex and important public-private partnerships. Join POLITICO on July 30 for a conversation about what Washington needs to understand is at stake – which sectors of the global economy see their growth arc in space, and what the role of government leaders is in both growing and regulating the explosion of orbital ideas. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | MORE OLYMPIC WOES: Telecommunication lines in France have been hit by vandalism, affecting fiber lines and phone lines as the Olympics are underway, our own VICTOR GOURY-LAFFONT reports. Long-distance fiber optic cables were hit by a "major sabotage" operation early today, according to Netalis, an internet provider for corporate customers. Free Pro, the corporate branch of one of the main French service providers, confirmed the attack and warned customers of a “significant slowdown” on its network. A spokesperson for Iliad, Free's parent company, indicated that six of the 101 French districts were affected by the slowdown. Paris, where most of the Olympic events are taking place, has not been affected. The telecom interruption comes days after large parts of the French rail network were affected by a coordinated arson attack. Interior Minister GÉRALD DARMANIN announced today said the sabotage “resembled the ultra-left's operating procedure,” but it’s unclear whether the suspects acted on their own accord or were instructed to undertake the attack.
| | BOTTOM LINE BUMP: The U.S. isn’t spending nearly enough to counter world threats that are more complex than even just a few years ago — it needs at least a 3 percent to 5 percent defense spending boost, along with immediate supplemental funding. That’s according to a new report from the bipartisan Commission on the National Defense Strategy, a panel that has warned of heightened threats since the Biden administration’s 2022 defense strategy was written. The report is due out this week, and our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) got an early look. The last NDS Commission report in 2018 also backed calls for 3 percent to 5 percent annual growth in defense spending and was widely touted by defense hawks. That size spending boost — a goal Washington hasn’t met — is a “bare minimum” for funding the military, the new report says. A LITTLE HELP FROM PUTIN? South Korean lawmakers are accusing Russia of having provided assistance to North Korea for its failed spy satellite launch in May, Reuters’ HYONHEE SHIN reports. Pyongyang said it used a new “liquid oxygen and petroleum engine” in the satellite, but the lawmakers said North Korea likely hasn’t developed such technology and may have gotten it from Moscow, citing South Korea’s spy agency. The intel from South Korea’s spy agency corroborates what some experts have been saying since the failure: “It is possible that Russia helped with this engine, as it is well known for this type of fuel,” VICTORIA SAMSON, Washington Office Director for the Secure World foundation think tank, told NatSec Daily shortly after the launch. Russia has denied sending arms and assistance to North Korea, but the pair have vowed to increase their military cooperation. ICYMI — US revamps Japan command amid China’s threats by our own STUART LAU
| | | |   | | | | | RISCH’S REPORT CARD: Senate Foreign Relations’ top Republican JIM RISCH (R-Idaho) blasted the Biden administration’s China policy today in a lengthy report, giving the White House grades ranging from a C to a D- on seven areas. His 160-page report focuses on disinformation and democracy, the United Nations’ integrity, international trade, the technology competition, China’s strategic investments, and U.S.-Europe cooperation in Africa as well as the Indo-Pacific. “The Biden-Harris administration has made grand announcements, but repeatedly failed to implement them. Worse, the administration continues to pursue counterproductive policies that weaken U.S. and allied competitiveness against China,” the report reads. HILL REACTS TO VENEZUELA: Republican lawmakers are calling out voter fraud in Venezuela’s election and re-upping their critiques that the White House didn’t do enough to prevent Maduro from rigging the election. Sen. MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.), the top Republican on the Senate Intelligence Committee who represents Florida’s large Venezuelan diaspora community, wrote on X that “Biden & Harris broadly eased Trump sanctions on Maduro regime as part of a “deal” for elections in #Venezuela. Today was that election and it was a complete fraud.” “The United States must stand against any and all efforts by the criminal Chavista regime to steal its way out of today’s clear election results,” said House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas) in a post on X. Democrats have joined in calls condemning Maduro, but stopped short of critiquing the administration’s approach to Venezuela, which has focused on negotiating with the Maduro government to guarantee free and fair elections. Rep. SYLVIA GARCIA (D-Texas) wrote on X that “The reported election results in Venezuela demonstrate the length to which Maduro and his cronies will go to hold on to power. The U.S. must stand in solidarity with the Venezuelan people and lead an international effort to ensure every vote is counted fairly and transparently.”
| | GRIM SUDAN REPORT: Human Rights Watch accused the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan of committing widespread acts of sexual violence in areas of Khartoum, where the paramilitary group has control. In an 89-page report released late Sunday, the organization said the acts “constitute war crimes and crimes against humanity.” QUAD’S SOUTH CHINA SEA QUALMS: Australia, India, Japan and the U.S. today signaled that they’re very worried about China’s actions in the Indo-Pacific, without explicitly mentioning Beijing. “We are seriously concerned about the situation in the East and South China Seas and reiterate our strong opposition to any unilateral actions that seek to change the status quo by force or coercion,” reads the lengthy statement from the Quad, which followed a foreign ministers meeting in Tokyo. At a briefing today, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson LIN JIAN said the group was “artificially creating tension, inciting confrontation and containing the development of other countries.” THE GOP’S NEW PUNCHING BAG? Rep. ELISE STEFANIK (R-N.Y.) took aim at PHILIP GORDON, Harris’ national security adviser, in a post on X over his support for the Obama administration’s Iran nuclear deal. “The Biden-Harris Administration’s policy of appeasing Iran and punishing our great ally Israel will only get worse if Kamala Harris and the Iranian regime acolytes on her staff are elevated,” Stefanik wrote. The post suggests that Republicans may increasingly try to criticize the White House strategy toward Iran in the months leading up to November’s election. A spokesperson for Harris did not respond to a request for comment. | | — JOSHUA PENA is now a public affairs professional for the Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, according to his LinkedIn. He previously worked at the U.S. Marine Corps in strategic communications.
| | — DERRICK WYATT, POLITICO: A bad deal with Trump on Ukraine could at least postpone a worse one with Putin — LOVEDAY MORRIS and SUFIAN TAHA, The Washington Post: Palestinians recount deadly abuse in Israeli prisons: ‘It is Guantánamo’ — Government Accountability Office: Havana Syndrome: Better patient communication and monitoring of key DOD tasks needed to better ensure timely treatment
| | — POLITICO, 8 a.m.: Go for launch: shaping the next space economy which Matt and MAGGIE MILLER are moderating! It’ll feature guests including industry heads, NASA Administrator BILL NELSON, and Sens. JOHN HICKENLOOPER (D-Colo.) and JERRY MORAN (R-Kansas). It’s free to sign up and watch virtually — join us! — The Wilson Center, 10 a.m.: The Yazidi Genocide: Ten years & counting. — The McCain Institute, 10:30 a.m.: Unsilenced: A conversation with justice defenders on shaping Africa's future. — Washington Post Live, 11 a.m.: Inside the humanitarian and displacement crisis in war-ravaged Sudan. — The Heritage Foundation, 11 a.m.: Discussion on a new report, “Nuclear Posture Review: Building Our Strength in 2025.” — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2 p.m.: The defense of Guam. — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2:30 p.m.: Roadmap to resilience: USAID’s updated resilience policy. — The Intelligence and National Security Alliance, 5:30 p.m.: Discussion on issues including election security, great power competition, cyber threats to critical infrastructure, U.S. Cyber Command 2.0. — Association of the United States Army, 12 p.m.: Noon Report with Assistant Secretary of Defense for Health Affairs LESTER MARTINEZ-LOPEZ. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who makes us very nervous. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who eases all our worries.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: F-35: Providing Critical Capabilities that Power Allied-Based Deterrence
As the most capable 21st Century Security® solution, the F-35 is a powerful force multiplier ‒ critical to deterring and defeating threats to the U.S. and allies to win in highly contested environments. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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