Welcome to POLITICO's West Wing Playbook, your guide to the people and power centers in the Biden administration. With Allie Bice. Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Max Earlier today, the Senate confirmed President JOE BIDEN's 42nd federal judge to a lifetime post — and 13th judge on the all-important appellate courts. As chief of staff RON KLAIN reminded viewers of MSNBC's "Morning Joe" this morning, "One thing we've done that hasn't gotten a lot of attention is confirmed more federal judges than any president in four decades." That's true, but it also belies a more sobering reality for Democrats: even with the historic progress, there's little hope the White House will be able to fundamentally rebalance the rightward turn the judiciary took under President DONALD TRUMP, at least in the foreseeable future. "Trump made a huge dent in the judiciary," JILL DASH, the American Constitution Society's vice president of strategic engagement, said in an interview. "There's just not a lot of room, in terms of future vacancies, for the Biden administration to be flipping the balance." The judicial branch tends to detest the partisanship-of-the-nominating-president heuristic – arguing it's reductive. However it is a proxy used by, well, most everyone else to approximate ideological leanings of judges and identify outliers. (See: SOUTER, DAVID) Trump's 226 appointees made up more than a quarter of the federal bench — including three of nine seats on the Supreme Court — and swung the ideological balance of three of the 13 appellate courts. In other circuits, Republicans further cemented existing conservative majorities or chipped away at courts with a liberal valence. The bulk of confirmations under Biden thus far have either been in blue states or to replace other Democrat-nominated judges. So despite the remarkable number of judges the Senate has voted through — and their historic diversity, professionally and demographically — Democrats have succeeded in flipping back just one appellate court to a Democratic-appointed majority in Biden's first year. And it was the traditionally liberal, New York-based 2nd Circuit, which Trump and Senate Republicans had narrowly swung the other way. Similarly consequential opportunities appear scarce. A court to watch is the Philly-based 3rd Circuit, where liberals are only a seat away from evening out the 14-judge bench. In December, then-Chief Judge D. BROOKS SMITH — a GEORGE W. BUSH appointee — took senior status, creating a readymade opening for Biden. But it would require a massive turnover of judges — and, likely, the cooperation of Republican senators who represent the states where the courts are based — to swing the partisan balance of the other four appellate courts with Republican-appointed majorities, the 5th, 6th, 7th and 8th Circuits. Those also happen to be the courts that have struck some of the most devastating legal blows to the Biden administration in its first year. The New Orleans-based 5th Circuit Court, in particular, stayed the White House's vaccine mandate for large businesses, and also upheld Trump's "Remain in Mexico" policy for processing asylum seekers at the southern border. But the overall ideological or partisan lean of an appeals court is not always predictive. The 6th Circuit Court, for example, overruled the 5th on Biden's vaccine mandate, with a judge appointed by George W. Bush siding with an Obama-appointed judge on the three judge panel. The third judge, a Trump appointee, dissented. And, in theory, the president still has plenty of time to influence the make-up of the federal courts. "At this point these numbers are kind of like snapshots, you know? They're kind of like one cell in a film," said the Brooking Institution's RUSSELL WHEELER, who is readying a forthcoming analysis on judicial appointments. As Wheeler and others point out, judges can unexpectedly die or step aside for a number of reasons, while others try to time things more strategically. But Democrats remain chastened about banking on the luxury of time after Obama was stymied by Republican obstruction in his second term. Observers are quick to point out the potential for the midterms to upend Biden's confirmations going forward. "If the Senate goes Republican, you know, all bets are off because they'll pretty much stop confirming judges, I think," Wheeler said. SEND YOUR HAWT TAKE — We want to incorporate more of your feedback. Is there something we missed in today's edition? Do you have a tip to share or a thought on our coverage? Send us an email or text and we will try to include your feedback in the next day's edition. Can be anonymous, on background, etc. Email us at westwingtips@politico.com or you can text/Signal Alex at 8183240098 or Max at 7143455427. Do you work in the Biden administration? Are you in touch with the White House? Are you new DNC comms director KRISTEN ORTHMAN? | 
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