Diplomats dish on dealing with Team Biden

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Jan 21, 2022 View in browser   By Ryan Heath Send tips and thoughts to rheath@politico.com. Follow Ryan on Twitter. Happening Today Africa's new vaccine manufacturing campus is open: The goal is to produce 1 billion Covid vaccine doses each year. The centerpiece of the Cape Town, South Africa, campus is ImmunityBio , which has a new Covid vaccine in trial. Longer-term, the campus may focus on HIV/AIDS — Africa has 70 percent of global cases. New World Economic Forum dates: WEF's annual Davos meeting will be held May 22 to 26, the organization confirmed this morning. Global Insider first reported those dates, Jan. 10. Blinken meets Lavrov: The latest round of bilateral talks just wrapped up in Geneva. "We don't expect to resolve our differences here today," Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in opening remarks. Expect him to join an EU Foreign Ministers Summit taking place Monday. Blowback on Biden's Ukraine "minor incursion" comment: It's more than 36 hours since President Joe Biden suggested a "minor incursion" could be dealt with less severely than a full-scale invasion, forcing the president to clarify that "any assembled Russian units move across the Ukrainian border, that is an invasion." Officials in Kyiv remain alarmed. "There are no minor incursions and small nations" tweeted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. "You're either aggressive or you're not aggressive," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told The Wall Street Journal. PERSPECTIVES Elisabeth Braw explains why she thinks Biden's gaffe explains a real disunity problem in NATO around responding to Russia's gray-zone aggression — such as cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and the weaponization of migrants. In the latest episode of the Making a Killing podcast, Nate Sibley, Paul Massaro and Peter Rough discuss U.S. policy options to counter Russian aggression in Ukraine. Quotable — EU Commission President: "We hope an attack will not happen, but if it does, we are prepared. And what I want us never to forget is the following: Russia and Europe share geography, culture and history. We also want a common future." — Ursula von der Leyen Not happening: A U.N. Security Council discussion on Ukraine. "When the time comes, we will be ready to bring this to the Council's attention," U.S. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield told reporters Thursday. Thomas-Greenfield is also furious at Russia and China for their lack of resolve in implementing unanimously agreed sanctions against North Korea, which continues to make unannounced missile tests. More Russia sanctions: the Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned four individuals engaged in Russian government-directed influence activities to destabilize Ukraine. Allies wait on U.S. approval to arm Ukraine as invasion worries mount: Baltic NATO allies Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia are waiting for State Department export approval to transfer American-made lethal weapons such as anti-armor and ground-to-air missiles to Ukraine. That process can take months, as Biden administration officials warn a Russian incursion could occur "at any point." The Baltics have also requested more NATO forces to bolster those already stationed in their countries. WHAT D.C.'S DIPLOMATS REALLY THINK ABOUT BIDEN'S FIRST YEAR POLITICO granted anonymity to 19 ambassadors and senior officials from every region of the world to tell us what and how they really experienced the first year of the Biden administration. They mostly like the policies (but African diplomats are definitely not cool with the vaccine export ban). Big countries love their access: "They coordinate quite closely, it's quite successful," said one European ambassador. "More or less, we can have immediate communication," said another from Asia. But if their country is on the small and medium side, they're very annoyed at the lack of face time. One ambassador told POLITICO that their visiting head of state was rebuffed for dinner — in fact, any meal of any scale — because of Covid. European allies hope the Ukraine mess proves a turning point in consultation. "At the end of the day, what are we talking about? We're talking about 10 fucking minutes of your time," said one ambassador from a European Union country. "The thing is [Russian Foreign Minister Sergey] Lavrov, he will travel to our country and he will sit down with our guys for an hour, hour and a half. It's not that we believe everything that Mr. Lavrov says, but if he gives an hour of his time, you will listen to him, you will get his spin." Managing dozens of allies and a few wily adversaries is bound to overfill any diary. Yet POLITICO heard a range of examples from ambassadors about how their first contact on an issue — and sometimes their first contact with the Biden administration, period — came only when the White House needed something. VERBATIM: "We are in some kind of gray zone. We don't know what they're saying about us. … We never felt so insecure as we do now." — European ambassador on U.S.-Russia talks. "Biden added back respect into dealings with other countries (but) leaving Africa without vaccines for months, it was frustrating." — A deputy ambassador from Africa "When you bring skin to the game: They listen." — EU Ambassador Stavros Lambrinidis, who's grateful for Biden "taking the drama out of the relationship." "This is an administration that constantly says 'Europe, Europe, Europe,' and what they really mean is Berlin and Paris. And that's all," — Not the French or German ambassador "He should pick up the phone a bit more often." — Ambassador from a G-7 country "We have access, but the truth is the heads of countries are still not talking (with Biden)." — the African deputy ambassador "The chief of protocol: I've never seen the guy. They've done zero. They will say it's because of Covid, yeah, but guys: Come on." — European ambassador on the team at the State Department Protocol Office   STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.     GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS BORIS BATTLES Boris Johnson's broken premiership: "He may cling on to office, but his hold on his party has gone," according to The Economist. "The imperial premiership is over," declares a former Cabinet minister. The opposition Labour party says Johnson's scandals make him "incapable of leading" during the Ukraine crisis. Johnson calls time on vaccine passports: Johnson "who was still prime minister as we went to press" my London colleagues report, has called time on digital passes, mandatory face masks and guidance to work from home. These Restrictions will expire on Thursday. 77.8 percent The probability that Boris Johnson will be forced out as U.K. Prime Minister in 2022, per Sportsbetting odds. CENTRAL BANKING — RUSSIA PROPOSES TO BAN CRYPTO: In a report published Thursday, Russia — a major center of digital token mining — plans to ban all cryptocurrency issuance and operations , per the Financial Times. The government would also prevent banks from investing in cryptocurrencies, ban crypto trading platforms and make merchants liable if they accept crypto as currency. TAX — AMERICA'S GROWING TAX HAVEN PROBLEM: Half of corporate profits are now booked offshore. Watch Scott Galloway explain in this one-minute video. Fifty years ago, 5 percent of profits were booked offshore; today it's 50 percent, and it's not all because of more overseas activity. TECH — DON'T EXPECT D.C. TO JOIN THE TECH REGULATION TRAIN IN 2022: Bipartisan antitrust reforms remain the most likely achievement (such as a law from Sens. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) that would stop Big Tech platforms from favoring their own online digital services over those of rivals), but semiconductor subsidies are gridlocked and so is privacy legislation. The upshot: It will be on U.S. states to push ahead with their own (often diverging) legislative efforts. The clearest example is data protection. In Washington state, there will be another effort to pass European-style privacy laws, albeit ones where people can't actually sue companies (only the state attorney general will have that power). Similar bills are also winding their way through state legislatures from New York to Ohio. TECH — THE SUCCESSFUL STARTUPS THAT WON'T WANT TO BE UNICORNS: Billion dollar valuations? That's so yesterday. Dovetail founder Benjamin Humphrey explains why, and why he's skeptical of venture capital. NEW PODCAST EPISODE — RICHARD EDELMAN Listen to Global Insider Podcast Richard Edelman, the brains behind the 22nd annual Edelman Trust Barometer, told Global Insider that we're now in a "vicious cycle of distrust" across rich democracies. The trust that remains is becoming heavily local, or concentrated among elite groups. And the collapse in trust is sharpest in government and media, and among those who aren't top earners or masters degree holders. Edelman says CEOs are asked to step into this breach. ONCE A QUAD, ALWAYS A QUAD, EXCEPT WHEN A QUINT: Global Insider's Wednesday item on the reemergence of the trans-Atlantic Quad was met with howls of disbelief from many experienced foreign policy hands. Your 41-year-old Australian author had never come across the term before 2019, but apparently it's been in use since the 1960s, per loyal readers Ivo Daalder and Dan Hamilton. One offshoot of the phrase is the Quadripartite talks among the four WWII allies (U.S., Soviet Union, U.K., France) with regard to status issues related to divided Germany and divided Berlin. "The 1971 Quadripartite Agreement on Berlin is one formal reference to that usage," Hamilton, a former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Europe, wrote Global Insider. Alongside that group of four, the three democracies among them held talks with West Germany on issues related to East Germany. Daalder writes that the Quad is "how NATO did a lot of its business," while Dan Baer says the phrase was in common usage during his time as ambassador to the OSCE. Daalder goes on: "When I arrived at NATO (as U.S. ambassador) in 2009 and suggested that we might want to widen the Quad to include others, like Poland and Italy, there were howls of protest from the other Quad members." But a Quint that includes Italy has functioned on and off since the 1990s Balkans war, most recently when Biden convened Quint leaders before and after his first call with Russian President Vladimir Putin in early December.   DON'T MISS CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO's new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE.     GLOBETROTTERS NOT GLOBETROTTING — WEST AUSTRALIANS: The state government of Western Australia is delaying its border reopening to other Australians and foreigners alike. You'll be locked out unless you are a returning resident until 80 percent of all residents are triple vaxxed. Others may apply for a compassionate exemption, but will still need a close link to the state, be triple vaxxed, negative-tested and spend 14 days in hotel quarantine. ZOOM GLOBETROTTING — DAVOS: European Space Agency astronaut Matthias Maurer beamed in live to virtual Davos from the International Space Station to discuss how space research can improve life on Earth. Maurer said decades of successful space collaboration can be a model for better climate collaboration. METAVERSE GLOBETROTTING — A VIRTUAL RAVE: The browser-based "Decentraland" is a "virtual social world" for parties. Here's what it's like to rave in the metaverse. BIDEN NAMES AMBASSADORS TO U.K., BRAZIL: Jane Hartley, former ambassador to France who oversaw Paris Climate agreement preparations and American support for France during a string of terror attacks, is finally nominated for the United Kingdom post, six months after Global Insider first reported it. Biden's pick for ambassador to Brazil is Elizabeth Bagley, a longtime diplomat and attorney who served as ambassador to Portugal under former President Bill Clinton. Career diplomat Ambassador Alexander Laskaris is nominated for Chad, while Alan Leventhal , who heads Beacon Capital Partners, is nominated for Denmark. SAVE THE DATE — SUMMIT OF THE AMERICAS: The ninth edition of this summit will be held June 6-10 in Los Angeles. Watch out for a special role for Vice President Kamala Harris, a former California senator. The summit themes will be pandemic control, a green recovery and managing migration. Thanks to editor John Yearwood, Alex Ward, Nahal Toosi and Hannah Farrow   Follow us on Twitter Ryan Heath @PoliticoRyan   Follow us

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