Inside Russia's thinking on Ukraine

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Jan 26, 2022 View in browser   By Ryan Heath Send tips and thoughts to rheath@politico.com. Check out the weekly Global Insider podcast | Follow Ryan on Twitter. Happening Today Adviser meetings today in Paris: Officials from Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France — the "Normandy Format" — meet in Paris today, part of what President Emmanuel Macron termed "stepped-up dialogue with Russia." Macron and Russian President Vladimir Putin will speak Friday. Russia conducted drills today, sent more troops to neighboring Belarus and Putin is serenading Italian business leaders. Not happening today — a Russian invasion: That's per Ukraine Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov who told parliament "there are no grounds to believe" Russia will invade imminently. Interest rates: Canadian and Chilean central banks are expected to raise rates today, while the U.S. is expected to signal a future rise, but hold steady for now. NEW PODCAST EPISODE — INSIDE PUTIN'S THINKING Are we facing Europe's biggest war in 80 years? Or we instead panicking because we don't understand Ukraine and Putin? What have Russia's other neighbors done to fend off Moscow? For answers to all these questions and more, I turned to a person who's spent years living in Moscow and dealing with Russia as a neighbor, European Council on Foreign Relations senior fellow Kadri Liik. It's not often I would share this much of a podcast interview in text — but it's worth the read ( and the listen). Listen to Global Insider Podcast War tomorrow? "We are going to see more rounds of talks. And then it will all go back to the two presidents. Vladimir Putin, he is the decision maker. … I think if Moscow had decided that they will go to war one way or another, they wouldn't invest all that energy in these talks." What are some war effects that are hard to see now? A massive deployment "would be very badly received both by Russian society as well as elites. It would be an enormous domestic stress test for Putin. Then add economic costs, then add a totally upended relationship with the West that would leave Russia so much at the mercy of China, both politically and economically. I don't think Moscow wants that." What does Putin really want here? "He really wants to gain control of Ukraine's future policymaking to make sure that Kiev remains in lockstep with Moscow for years and decades to come. I think that's his very sincere and heartfelt goal; not necessarily very widely shared by people in the Russian elite or society. But even so, for Putin, it is deadly serious. And then the second layer is the European security order: making sure Ukraine will never join Western organizations. Putin probably saw that Ukraine was slipping away from him. Zelenskyy was not delivering. Ukraine is increasingly cooperating with the West, militarily and with NATO countries." Can conflict be avoided? "If the alternative (to war) is concluding some arms control agreements with the United States that would somehow limit the Western military posture around Ukraine, they would need to be reciprocated by Russia, because no one does arms control unilaterally. That, I think, would not be the worst outcome." Does Putin see Biden as weak — after Afghanistan? "I don't think so. I think people in Moscow, at least people who matter and who are influential in foreign policy debates, their thinking was rather that Biden is smart. He's trying to limit his frontlines. He's not fighting each and every battle. Plus, Biden is someone who can speak on behalf of the West. During the whole Trump period, there was no one like that." How deep are Russia's security fears? "Russia, being a sparsely populated and badly governed country, does feel insecure to outside attack, and they have experienced a fair amount of it. Soviet nostalgia: There is some. Putin is not an ethnic nationalist, as he is sometimes portrayed. He's a great power imperialist. … Recently, Russia has been giving up that desire to dominate neighboring countries regardless of what it takes. You can see it is now a case-by-case approach. They have given up on the Baltic states, they view the Baltics as handed over to America. They don't think that the Baltic states have much agency themselves, but they're clearly in the U.S. sphere of influence. They let an ally, Armenia, experience defeat in the hands of Azerbaijan and Turkey." Would finance and energy sanctions work? "Russia has also managed to sanction-proof itself to a great degree. Cutting Russia out of SWIFT (the global payments system) in 2014 would have resulted in total chaos: Russia would not have been able to administer domestic payments, everyone would have gone without their salary. Now that's not the case. … Right now, we happen to need Russian gas much more than we needed earlier. So it's an unfortunate moment for the European Union." (Germany has refused a suggestion to cut Russia out of SWIFT, while the U.S. is in talks with Qatar about boosting gas supplies to Europe in the event of an invasion. If Russia invaded this week, Germany would have to ration its natural gas, because reliable supplies would risk running out before the end of winter.) What about Nord Stream sanctions, specifically? "There is gas going through the Ukrainian pipeline (today), and that inevitably increases the value of the Ukrainian pipeline for Russia, and might reduce the likelihood of (a) big war. I wouldn't recommend relying on that long term, but at the moment, it could have some deterrence value. Nord Stream has very limited deterrence value: Russia wants Nord Stream, too, but it wants Ukraine so much more. There's simply no comparison. And Germany can threaten to cut it (Nord Stream) only until it becomes operational. This is temporary leverage, at best. If within that time window, Russia invades massively, then I think Germany probably will have to cancel Nord Stream, because it's another game changer." What about sanctioning oligarchs? "I don't think that helps at all. Oligarch business is in Russia and depends on good standing with the Kremlin. Sanctions would annoy them a great deal, but it doesn't change the calculus. They wouldn't walk up to President Putin saying, you know, 'Stop it.' Many of them live in Russia anyway. And I guess a good number of them in strategic industries are not encouraged to leave the country. Some don't want to leave because they fear Covid. Some are sanctioned. So they are confined to Russia, by and large, and their earnings are in Russia. Facing the choice between the west and Russia is basically facing the choice between your income and savings. They might be able to take some of their savings to the West and live off them comfortably for the rest of their life, that's true. But their earnings are in Russia and they wouldn't have that any longer. So I do not see that happening." What is most helpful to Ukraine now? "It's not something the West can deliver. But it would really be helpful if Ukraine got its own act together. They have a very strong society, but they have quite weak political elites. The elites can sign agreements, but society can veto them. That was the fate of (the) Minsk Agreements . … That's a sort of systemic problem in Ukraine that makes dealing with the country hard. … Outsiders are discussing Ukraine's fate above the heads of Ukrainians because they are not fit to take part in it. And we have seen it in many Westerners visiting Ukraine recently: They come back completely puzzled because the priority for President Zelenskyy seems to be arresting former President [Petro] Poroshenko as opposed to engaging the West or fending off Russian aggression." RUSSIA — When in doubt, distract: Russia adds Navalny and his top allies to list of terrorists GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS UKRAINE PERSPECTIVES  ESTONIAN PRIME MINISTER ON SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA: Kaja Kallas told Global Insider this morning that "sanctions are most efficient when they are robust, tough and their — most importantly — implementation is carefully timed. Only then sanctions have their fullest deterrent effect." "We must be ready if Russia gives up and forfeits diplomacy," Kallas said. "The Allies and the EU have sent clear signals to Russians [of] what happens when [the] sovereignty of a country is violated. But the stakes must go up. The deterrent effect of sanctions must be more intimidating to Russia, because Russia is testing our unity. Russia understands only strength and thus we, democracies, European Union and NATO, must continue speaking with one voice."  Is this really about George W. Bush insisting on NATO expansion? Putin claims that, after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the U.S. promised not to expand NATO beyond East Germany. Does he have a case? Joshua Yaffa explores the facts in the New Yorker. Putin has resurrected NATO argues Paul Taylor. China is watching Ukraine: My colleague Alex Ward spoke to a senior Taiwanese official who told him that the Chinese are watching what Russia has done outside Ukraine and might try something similar with Taiwan in late 2022. Beijing could put aircraft carriers near Taiwan and say it's just a routine exercise, for example. Some Ukrainians are angry about Washington ordering diplomats' families to leave the U.S. embassy, per Buzzfeed News. Could empathy have prevented the Ukraine crisis ? U.K. — THE BORIS JOHNSON SCANDAL THAT WON'T GO AWAY  19 The number of separate Covid lockdown partying claims that have been made against Prime Minister Boris Johnson and/or his Downing Street team, including an alleged birthday party with around 30 guests in the Cabinet room Police investigation: London's Metropolitan Police (themselves a frequent target of complaint and scandal) are now investigating parties Johnson and his staff attended during a severe national Covid lockdown. That's in addition to a report by the U.K.'s independent civil service into the affair which is due to be handed to Downing Street today. Takeaway: With a big majority in Parliament, Boris Johnson was, until now, likely to ride out his latest scandal with apologies and the firing of one or more staff scapegoats. Now, with police investigating the incidents, there's a new set of political clouds on Johnson's political horizon. Why now: Why did it take a civil servant to prompt the police to open an investigation? The police are, after all, based at Downing Street 24/7 themselves, while Sue Gray, the civil servant investigating the parties, is merely picking pieces of evidence months after the event. One possibility is that the police referral is intended as a nudge from Gray that she thinks there's potential serious misdoing. Gray can't fire Johnson: only his party can, but so far they have resisted. 54 The number of British Conservative lawmakers (out of 359) who would have to demand a party leadership contest that could oust Boris Johnson ETHIOPIA— EVIDENCE POINTS TO TURKISH DRONE IN CIVILIAN BOMBING: Simon Marks reports that new photographs of missile fragments indicate Ethiopia used a Turkish drone this month in an attack that killed 58 civilians sheltering in a school. Turkey's growing prowess as a drone exporter is styled as a point of national pride, but will intensify international pressure on the NATO country to stop arming Addis Ababa. Not Turkey's first drone rodeo: In a 2020 short war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, Azerbaijan gained the upper hand thanks to drones supplied by Turkey and Israel. YEMEN — MORE REBEL MISSILES INTERCEPTED, MORE SAUDI AIRSTRIKES: The United Arab Emirates and the U.S. military intercepted two ballistic missiles fired by Yemen's Houthi rebels over the skies of Abu Dhabi on Monday — the second attack in recent days targeting the Emirati capital. Meanwhile, recent Saudi attacks on Yemen have killed more than 60, leading Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) to insist on more accountability around U.S. weapons used in the conflict. Former U.N. envoy for Yemen Jamal Benomar complained about the actions of U.N. Security Council members : "Instead of compelling the Saudis to end their war and encouraging the Yemeni parties to negotiate, they compete with each other for contracts with Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E." ECONOMY— IMF PREDICTS SUPPLY CHAIN PROBLEMS WILL LIMIT GLOBAL GROWTH: The International Monetary Fund cut its economic growth expectations for 2022 to 4.4 percent, down from 4.9 percent in its World Economic Outlook. CORRUPTION— 27 COUNTRIES HIT NEW LOW IN NEW GLOBAL INDEX: Transparency International's latest Corruption Perceptions Index shows global anti-corruption efforts effectively at a standstill. Nearly nine of out 10 countries have made little or no progress over the last decade, and 27 are doing worse than ever. Top ranked: Denmark, Finland, New Zealand Sliding: Cyprus, Lebanon, Honduras Lowest ranked: Somalia, Syria, South Sudan DEMOGRAPHICS— CHINA'S DISAPPEARING DIVIDEND: Its over-60 population continues to rise rapidly, while births continue to drop, even after the end of the extreme one-child policy. For example, births dropped to just over 10 million in 2021, while the over-65 population rose from 190.64 million in 2020 to 200.56 million in 2021. ABORTION — HOW THE U.S. COMPARES TO THE WORLD ON ABORTION, via New York Times GLOBETROTTERS SWORN IN: Nicholas Burns as ambassador to the People's Republic of China. ON THE GRID — THE ORIGIN STORY OF THE SPLASHIEST NEW NEWS SITE:  The launch of the website Grid earlier this month represented the latest bet on the market for explainer journalism, the publication also used the consulting firm APCO to help it launch, long before it had journalists and editors to do that work. BRAIN FOOD SHORT READ: Nature's seven technologies to watch in 2022 LONG READ: Trump's Muslim ban forever changed the lives of Muslims around the world LONG READ: AI is getting better: 21 uses you probably didn't know about, from Tomas Pueyo  BOOK: Stolen Focus, Why you can't pay attention and how to think deeply again, by Johann Hari. Review | Buy Thanks to editor John Yearwood and Hannah Farrow   Follow us on Twitter Ryan Heath @PoliticoRyan   Follow us

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