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It's Biden's Fed now

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Jan 14, 2022 View in browser
 
POLITICO Morning Money

By Kate Davidson, Victoria Guida and Aubree Eliza Weaver

Programming Note: We'll be off this Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day but will be back in your inboxes on Tuesday.

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Quick Fix

Well, that was something you don't see every Thursday night — The White House, in an unusual move after a week of terrible headlines on inflation, voting rights and vaccine mandates, sent three highly anticipated Fed nominees to the Senate.

The names weren't surprising — the president will tap Sarah Bloom Raskin, the former deputy Treasury secretary and Fed governor, to be the Fed's top bank supervisor. And he'll pick Lisa Cook and Philip Jefferson, academics with a strong focus on labor markets, to two other vacancies on the central bank's board. (Kudos to WSJ for earlier reporting on Raskin, and scooping Jefferson's candidacy.)

The picks, which the White House had been promising to announce since early December, drew praise from progressive groups, economists and even some Republicans, as well as some early skepticism.

Kevin Hassett, former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers during the Trump administration who has known Jefferson for 30 years, said he is "a first-class scholar, and former Fed economist who is supremely well-qualified to be a governor. He will very likely receive broad bipartisan support in the Senate."

"Bloom Raskin and Dr. Cook are the kind of leaders the Federal Reserve needs to guarantee that the economic recovery works for all people," said Barry Lynn, executive director of the Open Markets Institute, a progressive think tank.

"Lisa Cook can bring a valuable longer-run and comparative perspective to the Board during these difficult and in some ways unprecedented times," said Harvard University economist Larry Katz . "Lisa Cook also has a strong international policy background and much experience. Phillip Jefferson brings a strong background and understanding of research on inequality, poverty, the uneven impacts across different communities of macroeconomic policies, and of crucial measurement and econometric issues."

A couple of thoughts on the latest round of nominees:

— If they are confirmed, this would be the most diverse Fed board ever. Cook, a Michigan State University professor, and Jefferson, a professor and administrator at Davidson College, would be only the fourth and fifth Black Americans to ever serve on the Fed board. Cook would be the first woman of color.

It would also mean four women are serving on the Fed board at once.

It's a big win for advocates like Senate Banking Chair Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and House Financial Services Chair Maxine Waters (D-Calif.), who have pushed for more diversity among the central bank's top ranks.

— This would return the board to full strength for the first time in years. The last time the Fed board had a full slate of seven members, Raskin was still on the board! The year was 2013: Ben Bernanke was the chair and Janet Yellen was his No. 2. Rounding out the other four spots were Elizabeth Duke, Jeremy Stein, Dan Tarullo and one Jerome Powell.

Bernanke left the board in 2014, Yellen was promoted, and Stanley Fischer joined as Yellen's vice chair. Around the same time, Duke, Stein and Raskin also departed, and Lael Brainard joined. But at the end of the Obama administration, two vacancies remained unfilled.

Within a year, Fischer and Tarullo left the board. Former President Donald Trump replaced Yellen with Powell, leaving him with five vacancies to fill. He managed to get only four nominees through the Senate — Randal Quarles, Richard Clarida, Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller.

— Raskin is likely to face stiff opposition from the GOP. Senate Republicans this week grilled Brainard over her views on Fed independence, climate change and employment. But they may be holding their real fire for Raskin, an aggressive regulator who has pressed for tougher oversight of Wall Street and called on financial regulators to do more to combat climate change.

"Sarah Bloom Raskin has specifically called for the Fed to pressure banks to choke off credit to traditional energy companies and to exclude those employers from any Fed emergency lending facilities," Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), the top Republican on the Banking Committee, said Thursday. "I have serious concerns that she would abuse the Fed's narrow statutory mandates on monetary policy and banking supervision to have the central bank actively engaged in capital allocation. Such actions not only threaten both the Fed's independence and effectiveness, but would also weaken economic growth."

But Duke, a community banker who served on the Fed board with Raskin, told MM: "The characterization of Sarah Bloom Raskin as someone who will use the powers of the Fed for political purposes is simply false. I saw every day Sarah's commitment to the Fed's dual mandate, its independence, and its culture of collegiality. It would be contrary to her nature to do anything else."

IT'S FRIDAY — I don't know about you all, but we'll be sleeping a lot easier this weekend. We'll also be taking a break Monday for the holiday, but we'll see you all back here Tuesday morning!

Meanwhile, send your tips and takes to kdavidson@politico.com or aweaver@politico.com, or share on Twitter @katedavidson and @aubreeeweaver.

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 
Driving the Day

December retail sales data at 8:30 a.m. … Industrial production data at 9:15 a.m. … University of Michigan consumer sentiment index at 10 a.m. … New York Fed President John Williams speaks at 11 a.m.

BRAINARD PREDICTS FED CAN NAIL THE SOFT LANDING — From your MM host: "The U.S. labor market can continue to improve this year even as the central bank begins raising interest rates to curb soaring inflation, Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard said Thursday, suggesting the process could begin in March."

"We are taking action on the monetary policy front that I have confidence will bring inflation down while continuing to allow the labor market to return to full strength over time," Brainard told lawmakers on the Senate Banking Committee at her nomination hearing to be the Fed's next vice chair.

Brainard also said the Fed won't dictate bank lending on climate risks, Bloomberg's Jesse Hamilton reported. "We would not tell banks which sectors to lend to or which sector to not lend," she said. Still, she added that climate change was among the risks that the central bank reviews.

BIDEN'S HOUSING NOMINEE WANTS CONGRESS TO DETERMINE FANNIE, FREDDIE'S FATE — Our Katy O'Donnell: "President Joe Biden's pick to regulate housing finance signaled Thursday that she would defer to Congress on how to return government-controlled mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac back to private hands, in a break with her Trump-era predecessor.

"Federal Housing Finance Agency Acting Director Sandra Thompson outlined her views on Fannie and Freddie's future during a Senate hearing on her nomination to lead the agency on a permanent basis. It was her first appearance before Congress since she became the FHFA's interim leader in June."

SCOTUS BLOCKS BIDEN'S WORKPLACE VACCINE RULE — Our Eleanor Mueller and Josh Gerstein: "The Supreme Court on Thursday blocked enforcement of President Joe Biden's requirement that workers at larger businesses get vaccinated against Covid-19 or submit to weekly testing, a major blow to the administration's strategy for fighting the coronavirus' spread.

But the justices ruled that a separate federal policy requiring many health care workers to be vaccinated could move forward."

CONGRESS LAUNCHES FUNDING TALKS BEFORE FEBRUARY SHUTDOWN CLIFF — Our Jennifer Scholtes and Marianne LeVine: "Leaders in Congress finally began cross-party talks Thursday on a possible $1.4 trillion accord that would keep the federal government open through the fall, with five weeks to go until cash runs out again. The top four spending leaders on Capitol Hill met amicably for the first time in months, a sign that they could move beyond the funding stalemate that forced them to resort to a spending patch in October and again in December to stave off shutdowns."

DOWN BUT NOT OUT: DEMS PLOT COURSE FOR CTC AS PAYMENTS END — Our Brian Faler: "They may have put it aside for now, but Democrats have not given up on trying to revive their expansion of the Child Tax Credit.

"Though lawmakers have now shifted their attention to voting rights, they say they'll return to the child credit — and will likely face growing pressure to work out their differences after millions of Americans miss what Democrats had hoped would be the next round of monthly payments (the checks had been going out around the 15th of each month)."

CFTC'S STUMP CALLS FOR CRYPTO OVERHAUL — Our Sam Sutton: "CFTC Commissioner Dawn Stump said Thursday that her agency should revamp how it regulates digital asset trading and decentralized finance, arguing that old rules are failing to keep pace."

JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE BY 23K — AP's Paul Wiseman: "The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits rose last week to the highest level since mid-November, but still low by historic standards. U.S. jobless claims climbed by 23,000 last week to 230,000, the Department of Labor said Thursday. The four-week moving average, which smooths out week-to-week blips, rose nearly 6,300 to almost 211,000."

AS THE U.S. APPROACHES FULL EMPLOYMENT, NEW INFLATION RISKS EMERGE — WSJ's Josh Mitchell: "For workers, it is great news: the U.S. labor market is nearing, or may already be at, its ideal state of 'full employment.' But for the economy as a whole, it risks introducing a new source of upward pressure on inflation.

FED'S EVANS: TIME TO MOVE TOWARD TIGHTER MONETARY POLICY — WSJ's Michael S. Derby: "Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said Thursday monetary policy isn't positioned to deal with surging inflation and that he supports the central bank's recent shift toward expecting to raise interest rates."

Jobs Report

Claudia Sahm will lead a new macroeconomic research initiative at the Jain Family Institute that aims to study the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy responses to the pandemic. Sahm, a former Fed economist, joined the institute in 2021 as a senior fellow and serves as its research director.

Martin Crutsinger , who covers the U.S. economy and Fed for the Associated Press, is retiring after nearly 50 years. Marty joined the AP in 1973 when Richard Nixon was president, and covered five Fed chairs — Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen and Powell. He also covered economic indicators for 29 years and never missed a lockup, his colleague Chris Rugaber tells MM. (Here's Marty in his own words in this fantastic video.) Today is his last day. Congrats, Marty!

 

BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we've got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don't miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now.

 
 
Fly Around

WHAT TO WATCH IN BANK EARNINGS — WSJ's Charley Grant: "Big U.S. banks unveil fourth-quarter results starting later this week, with JPMorgan Chase & Co., Wells Fargo & Co. and Citigroup Inc. slated to report Friday. Banks in the S&P 500 are expected to report total profits of about $31.2 billion for the fourth quarter, according to FactSet. That would mark a 2.4 percent decline from a year earlier."

UN FORECASTS LOWER GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH FOR 2022, 2023 — AP: "The U.N. said that after expanding by 5.5 percent in 2021 — the highest rate of global economic growth in more than four decades — the world economy is projected to grow by only 4 percent in 2022 and 3.5 percent in 2023."

LOAN FUNDS POST BIGGEST INFLOW SINCE 2013 — Bloomberg's Olivia Raimonde and Lara Wieczezynski: "Funds that invest in U.S. leveraged loans posted the biggest inflow since August 2013 as investors rush to the asset class with the Federal Reserve ready to increase rates. The funds pulled in about $1.84 billion of cash for the week ended Jan. 12, according to Refinitiv Lipper data. That makes for the third-largest intake ever, the data show, and the highest since August 2013 amid a taper tantrum, when the Fed looked to end a bond-buying program it began in response to the global financial crisis."

 

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