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Meet Flurona — Your new winter surprise

A newsletter from POLITICO that unpacks essential global news, trends, and decisions.
Jan 05, 2022 View in browser
 
POLITICO Global Insider

By Ryan Heath

Send tips and thoughts to rheath@politico.com. Follow Ryan on Twitter.

Happening Today

MY FLURONA, A DASTARDLY DUO!

We're seeing the first widespread reports of "Flurona" — parallel flu and coronavirus infection — including in Texas (hear from one 17-year-old patient), Brazil and Israel. But cases date to at least February 2020.

Israel has started encouraging fourth Covid vaccine shots : the over 60s and immunocompromised are at the front of the line.

It can happen anywhere: New South Wales, Australia, where 94 percent of the state's 8 million people are vaccinated, recorded 35,000 Covid cases on Tuesday. One in three tests returned positive results.

Macron aims to "piss off" the unvaccinated: In an interview published late Tuesday in Le Parisien, the French president said, "the unvaccinated, I really want to piss them off. And so, we're going to continue doing so, until the end. That's the strategy."

Which countries are cutting quarantine times for those infected?

NEW GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN BAROMETER: New York Federal Reserve researchers — Gianluca Benigno, Julian di Giovanni, Jan Groen, and Adam Noble — have developed an index composed of 27 variables and data from China, the U.S., EU, Japan, U.K. and others which, unsurprisingly, finds that pressure is higher than at any point in the 25-year dataset.

NEW PODCAST EPISODE — DEMOCRACY'S NEW FRONTLINE

" target="_blank" target="_blank">Play audio

" target="_blank" style="color:#000000;text-decoration:none;font-weight:bold;" target="_blank">Jan. 5 Global Insider

Established democracies around the world face deep threats to their authority and reputations. One year on from the U.S. Capitol riot and organized attempts to stop Joe Biden from assuming the presidency, several new opinion polls show that tens of millions of Americans think violence against the government is sometimes necessary.

What can be done? In this episode, we road-test a proposal for a new Alliance of Democracies, with key backers Jonas Parello Plesner, executive director at an existing nonprofit also called the Alliance of Democracies, based in Copenhagen, and Ash Jain, director at the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security and Emma Ashford, also from the Scowcroft Center, who takes a more skeptical view on how such an alliance could work.

GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS

NO NUCLEAR WAR: The five nuclear-armed permanent members of the U.N. Security Council said in a surprise statement Monday "we declare there could be no winners in a nuclear war, it should never be started," the Russian-language version of the statement read. China's Foreign Ministry said the goal is to "increase mutual trust." Here is the English-language version released by the White House.

POLLUTION — CLEANER AIR LINKED TO LOWER RISK OF DEMENTIA: Air pollution is a chronically under-reported problem responsible for millions of deaths per year. A growing body of research is starting to show just how widespread its effects are, now including its role in dementia.

ECONOMY — MOST LEADING CENTRAL BANKS LIKELY TO RAISE INTEREST RATES IN 2022: A Bloombeg survey concludes 20 out of 23 leading central banks have hinted rate rises. Only China and Russia are predicted to cut rates, while Australia may keep its rate stable.

EXTREMISM — HOW THE AMERICAN FAR-RIGHT WENT LOCAL AFTER JAN. 6: From the Capitol to school board meetings.

TECH — THE MEANING OF THERANOS: The New York Times has published a couple of great pieces this week about what the trial and conviction of Elizabeth Holmes says about Silicon Valley's investment culture. Valley insiders have long pretended Holmes doesn't reflect their methods, an argument that no longer holds up.

David Streitfeld, who won a Pulitzer Prize for his explanatory tech reporting, compares Holmes to the fictional Jay Gatsby, while Erin Griffith writes "just as Bernard Madoff was a creature of Wall Street and Enron represented the get-rich-quick excesses of the 1990s, Theranos and its leader were very much products of Silicon Valley … Ms. Holmes, 37, used the mentorship and credibility of tech industry big shots like Larry Ellison, a co-founder of Oracle, and Don Lucas , a Silicon Valley venture capitalist, to raise money from others … she also used the start-up playbook of hype, exclusivity and a 'fear of missing out' to win over later investors. She embodied start-up hustle culture by optimizing her life for the maximum amount of work. She dismissed the 'haters; and anything that interfered with her vision of a better world. She parroted mission-driven technobabble. She even dressed like Steve Jobs … if anyone in Silicon Valley was suspicious of her proclamations, none spoke publicly about it until after things went south."

BY THE NUMBERS

$1.13 — IRELAND'S NEW MINIMUM ALCOHOL PRICE: The price is $1.13 per standard drink. That means 13 percent strength wine must cost a minimum $8.50 per bottle, and it's now impossible to sell a can of beer for less than $2 (doubling the price in some instances), or a bottle of popular spirits like vodka, whiskey or gin for less than $22.

Neighboring Scotland and Wales (but not England) also have minimum alcohol prices.

AROUND THE WORLD

KAZAKHSTAN — GOVERNMENTS RESIGNS AFTER VIOLENT FUEL PRICE PROTESTS: The price of liquefied natural gas doubled after price caps were lifted, sparking widespread protests in the authoritarian central Asian republic, and the Cabinet's resignation, which has been accepted by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.

Global impact: The situation is another political warning signal for those pushing to reduce and abolish fossil fuel subsidies as part of climate action efforts.

CHINA — A GROWING SMALL FIRMS DISASTER: Back in 2019, 13.8 million new small businesses registered their existence with the Chinese government. In 2021 that fell to just 1.32 million, a 90 percent drop during China's "zero Covid" pandemic policy. Compounding that: 4.4 million businesses shut for good during 2021, meaning that just as other national economies were recovering, China's small business sector was floundering. And that's assuming national statistics paint a broadly accurate picture, something even former Finance Minister Lou Jiwei has publicly expressed doubts about.

Conundrum: If China's small business sector is collapsing as badly as these numbers indicate — could the overall economy have grown by 8 percent in 2021, as international bodies such as the World Bank claim? The Bank concedes there was a rapid cooling of the economy in the second half of 2021.

What the World Bank says: Ibrahim Saeed Chowdhury, the Bank's acting lead economist for China, told Global Insider "we are aware of these developments" and "will continue to monitor the situation."

INDO-PACIFIC — JAPAN AND AUSTRALIA SIGN NEW DEFENSE PACT: Canberra becomes Tokyo's first formal defense partner other than the U.S., in another move designed to counter Chinese coercion and bolster democratic defenses in the region. The two countries will hold a summit Thursday.

U.K. — THE BATTLE TO SUCCEED BORIS JOHNSON: Another stumble is all it might take to see a changeover in Downing Street, with the country's treasurer, Rishi Sunak, and Foreign Secretary Liz Truss gunning for the job.

Lessons from the first year of Brexit Britain

Brexit goes digital: Around 48,000 .eu domains previously registered to U.K. individuals and organizations — including the infamous leave.eu — have been revoked and reserved only for residents or citizens of the European Union.

LATIN AMERICA — SUSPECT ARRESTED OVER HAITIAN PRESIDENTIAL ASSASSINATION: A former Colombian soldier was flown to Miami on a charge of conspiracy to commit murder or kidnapping.

LATIN AMERICA — VENEZUELA'S OPPOSITION FRAYS: Juan Guaidó's alliance is suffering amid disputes over mismanagement of state-owned firms.

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 


GLOBETROTTERS

AMERICA'S NEW MOONSHOT — GETTING EUROPE TO SIGN UP TO ITS SPACE RULES: The Artemis Accords set out Washington's preferred principles for a new era of space exploration and governance of exploitation of natural resources on the moon, comets and asteroids, and access to lunar bases and mining zones.

The accords flesh out the 1967 U.N. Outer Space Treaty — the main set of laws covering the moon and other celestial objects — but on American terms. Unlike the 1967 treaty, which stipulates that no country can claim sovereignty or property rights on the lunar surface and bans the installation of weapons of mass destruction in orbit, the Artemis Accords say the "extraction of space resources does not inherently constitute national appropriation," a signal for countries and companies to start planning.

France and Germany aren't yet convinced. Signatories include Italy, U.K., Poland and Luxembourg (a big promoter of asteroid mining) and Australia, Brazil, Canada, Japan and South Korea.

BRAIN FOOD

It's a longer than usual section today — because your author is laid-up with Covid, and his better half snatched his screen from him most of Tuesday … leading to a lot of reading on paper.

SHORT READ: Greg Lemond and the Amazing Candy-Colored Dream Bike.

LONG READ: The coming carbon tsunami, by Kelly Sims Gallagher.

NON-FICTION: Born in Blackness by Howard W. French. Reviewed here.

FICTION: Land of Big Numbers , a stirring collection of short stories about Chinese identity, by Te-Ping Chen.

FICTION: Silverview, John Le Carré's final novel, in which the British secret services not only question their purpose, but perhaps conclude the benefits of their service are not worth the costs.

Thanks to editor John Yearwood and Jordan Wolman

 

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