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POLITICO Illinois Playbook: Poll: Undecided voters hold key to SOS race

Presented by CVS Health: Shia Kapos' must-read rundown of political news in the Land of Lincoln
Jan 24, 2022 View in browser
 
Illinois Playbook

By Shia Kapos

Presented by CVS Health

Good Monday morning, Illinois. If you're getting this in your inbox it means I didn't oversleep after a weekend of training on our new filing system.

TOP TALKER

Details from an independent poll done last month show undecided voters will determine the outcome of the heated Democratic secretary of state race.

The Ogden and Fry survey of 400 likely Democratic voters first asked who they would vote for in the race with Alexi Giannoulias having an edge with 18.4 percent of the vote over challengers Anna Valencia (7.3 percent), Pat Dowell (3.8 percent) and David Moore (1.5 percent). But a whopping 68.9 percent of respondents were undecided.

The poll was conducted before Dowell bowed out of the race to run for Congress and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. It's also the only independent survey your Playbook host has seen on the race so far.

Chicago Ald. Pat Dowell, former Illinois state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, Chicago Ald. David Moore, and Chicago City Clerk Anna Valencia listen to speeches at a Democrats rally on Aug. 18, 2021, before taking the stage themselves.

Anna Valencia, right to left, David Moore, Alexi Giannoulias, and Pat Dowell, who's since dropped out of the secretary of state race, attend Democrats Day at the Fair last year. | Shia Kapos

When likely voters were asked to choose a candidate if "undecided" was not an option, Giannoulias won with nearly 50 percent of the vote, Valencia at 26.9 percent, Dowell at 13.4 percent, and Moore at 10.1 percent.

"That high of a number of undecideds means the race is wide open at this moment," Robin Johnson, political science Professor at Monmouth College, told Playbook. "I'd assume Giannoulis has a name recognition advantage at this point due to his tenure in state government and statewide campaigns. But that advantage isn't translating into support. His challengers need to increase their name recognition and improve fund raising to compete. With 60 percent undecided, it's anybody's race."

Giannoulias was state treasurer from 2007 to 2001 and ran unsuccessfully for the U.S. Senate in 2010.

The numbers also indicate no one's got their messaging out yet. That's where resources will matter. Giannoulias has more than $4 million in the bank compared to Valencia's nearly $900,000 and Moore's less than $100,000.

The undecided number in the independent poll also echoes a survey conducted by Valencia's team earlier this month showing 58 percent of people surveyed were still undecided.

THE BUZZ

EVERYONE'S MAD: A public hearing Friday revealed how far apart Chicago's Black and Latino caucuses really are on redrawing the city's 50 ward boundaries. The answer: miles apart.

The Chicago City Council's Rules Committee, which is overseeing the process and is backed by the Black Caucus, laid out its case Friday, saying its map is determined by 2019 citizen voting age population (CVAP) data, which differentiates Latinos based on whether they're old enough to vote or not eligible because they aren't citizens.

It's a point that infuriates members of the Latino Caucus, which uses CVAP for informational purposes but sticks to 2020 census numbers to determine how boundaries should be drawn. In Chicago, that's about 55,000 residents per ward, whether they're 1 year old or 99.

The Latino Caucus sees the use of voting-age only data as a way of not including noncitizens. This is a sanctuary city, they remind.

"The discussion is devolving in how to accomplish their goal of incumbent protection. The only way possible is discounting citizens or discounting individuals under 18," Ald. Raymond Lopez said of the Black Caucus.

The Latino Caucus wants 15 Latino wards to represent the city's growing Hispanic population. The Black Caucus wants Latinos at 14 wards.

Ald. Michelle Harris, who chairs the Rules Committee, has her own beef with the situation. She says the Latino Caucus is ignoring the process by running a parallel operation to draw its own map using its own software without the Rules Committee map-makers having a say.

There's a reason for that. Last spring, Harris lobbied Springfield to reduce the threshold for approving a new ward map from 41 votes to 26 votes. At the time, she said she was trying to protect Chicago's 18 majority Black wards. That surprised Latino aldermen because Harris heads the Rules Committee, which is supposed to be neutral. Trust was lost.

Her legislative effort failed, and now the council is unable to get the 41 votes it needs to pass a new map.

The takeaway: The likelihood of a referendum becomes more likely every day.

Side note: There's talk within the Latino Caucus about proposing a measure similar to what New York City just passed: allowing non-citizens to vote in municipal elections.

RELATED

Madison County sues state over court map that would disrupt 2 Republican judge campaigns: "The change is unconstitutional and scrambles election planning for two openings in the 3rd Circuit by using an outdated precinct map, according to the suit filed by Madison County State's Attorney Tom Haine," by Belleville News-Democrat's Kelsey Landis.

Have a tip, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget for Playbook? Get in touch: skapos@politico.com

A message from CVS Health:

Throughout the pandemic, in communities across the country, CVS Health has been there. We've opened more than 4,800 COVID-19 test sites, administered 41 million tests and given 50 million vaccines. We've expanded access to prenatal and postpartum care via telemedicine, increased remote access to mental health services and invested in affordable housing to help build healthier communities. We've been on the frontlines, making health care easier to access and afford. Learn more.

 
WHERE'S JB

No official public events

WHERE'S LORI

North of Belmont CTA station at 9:15 a.m. to celebrate the grand opening of the new CTA Red-Purple Bypass and to break ground on the next phase of the Red and Purple Modernization project. Sen. Dick Durbin is expected to be in attendance.

Where's Toni

No official public events.

Covid-19 Update

— Cook County logs 14,000th Covid-19 death as worst surge wanes — but fatalities rise: "The state has averaged 107 deaths per day over the past week, a stretch that saw Cook County lose a total of 425 residents to the virus — the worst week since mid-November 2020," by Sun-Times' Mitchell Armentrout.

— The latest Covid-19 surge has made it difficult to get basic medical care in Illinois: "Long ER waits. Canceled surgeries. Closed urgent care centers," reports Tribune's Lisa Schencker.

— Game-changing Covid pills remain out of reach for some patients, by POLITICO's Lauren Gardner

— TMI | Every time you poop, you're helping Chicago health officials track Covid, by WBEZ's Adriana Cardona-Maguigad.

THE STATEWIDES

— Springfield mayor fires director of Lincoln Library: "Rochelle Hartman says no specific reason given for her termination," reports Illinois Times' Dean Olsen.

— With Roe v. Wade at risk, Illinois abortion providers open center to help out-of-state patients: "Two southern Illinois abortion providers have partnered to create one centralized location where patients can get assistance with travel needs like finding transportation, booking lodging and setting up child care," by Tribune's Angie Leventis Lourgos.

— Lincoln, Obama among notable names on murals at new Springfield transportation hub, by State Journal-Register's Steven Spearie

— Two gas stations, a 31-cent difference for a gallon of regular. What gives? by Daily Herald's Marni Pyke

TUGGING AT YOUR HEARTSTRINGS

A Hancock County farmer and his community show what it means to give back: After auctioning off a prized tractor, Michael Sullivan delivered a bag of $500,000 in donations to the Mayo Clinic, which helped save his life, by FarmWeek's Tammie Sloup.

 

JOIN FRIDAY TO HEAR FROM GOVERNORS ACROSS AMERICA : As we head into the third year of the pandemic, state governors are taking varying approaches to public health measures including vaccine and mask mandates. "The Fifty: America's Governors" is a series of live conversations featuring various governors on the unique challenges they face as they take the lead and command the national spotlight in historic ways. Learn what is working and what is not from the governors on the front lines, REGISTER HERE.

 
 
LEGISLATION

New legislation: State Rep. Maurice West, a Democrat from Rockford, has introduced a bill requiring Illinois schools to teach Native American curriculum beginning in the 2023-24 school year. The bill calls for teaching Native American curriculum "to inspire students to respect the dignity of all races and peoples and to forever abandon discrimination," according to a statement form West.

CHICAGO

— CPS says change in Covid case reporting wasn't intended to mislead public: "A CPS dad who has been tracking Covid data pointed out on social media [last] week that thanks to discrepancies in the district's figures, the number of infections at individual schools appeared lower than was actually the case," by Sun-Times' Nader Issa.

— What's next for CPS-CTU?"After three battles in three years, the relationship between Mayor Lori Lightfoot and the Chicago Teachers Union is beyond repair. What happens next is anyone's guess," by Sun-Times' Nader Issa.

— Suburbs, warmer cities step up efforts to lure cops away from Chicago: "Some Chicago officers want to get away from a demoralized police department. Now, the law also lets them transfer up to 5 years of service to suburban pension plans," by Sun-Times' Mitch Dudek and Frank Main.

— Top Cop David Brown Dismisses Criticism of His Leadership: 'We Got a Job to Do': by WTTW' Matt Masterson

— Will Lightfoot's plan to sue gang members end up costing gangsters, or taxpayers? A letter sent from civil rights attorneys to the mayor pimples a "threat of civil action should Lightfoot successfully get her ordinance through the City Council," according to WBEZ's Patrick Smith.

— Police Board is letting a cop keep his job after a 'clearly unreasonable and unnecessary' shooting: "'He was mistaken about nearly every relevant fact surrounding the shooting,' the board concluded, adding that 'there is no evidence that [he] lied or attempted to cover up his misconduct,'" by WBEZ's Chip Mitchell.

— MAT Asphalt says its air pollution is below state limits: "A company consultant's report, under review by the Illinois EPA, doesn't satisfy a community group that wants the plant shut down," by Sun-Times' Brett Chase.

— Chicagoans call for better recycling, more public transportation as city designs 2022 climate action plan, by Tribune's Shanzeh Ahmad

— Shedd Aquarium embarks on $500M transformation, by WTTW's Paul Caine

COOK COUNTY AND COLLARS

— Groups promote freedom versus protecting others in opposing rallies over vaccine mandates in Highland Park: "More than 250 demonstrators sent a message Sunday in Port Clinton Square in downtown Highland Park saying people should be free to choose whether to be vaccinated against COVID-19 or wear masks as a preventive measure. [A]cross from the rally was a group of more than 20 people with a different message. They believe vaccination is for the greater good as people are protecting both themselves and their neighbors," by Tribune's Steve Sadin.

— FBI agents search suburban Center for Covid Control offices following consumer complaints, by Tribune's William Lee

— Mount Prospect hires help to boost diversity, inclusion efforts, by Daily Herald's Steve Zalusky

 

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CAMPAIGN MODE

— GOOD ASSESSMENT OF GOVERNOR'S RACE, by Eric Krol for the Center for Illinois Politics. Here are some takeaways:

Richard Irvin's "path in the primary is to do well in the collar counties and hope the other candidates stay in and split the Downstate vote and the hardcore Trump vote."

Republicans who've won statewide "have followed a formula of winning the swing suburbs, racking up big margins in much of Downstate and collecting at least 20 percent of the vote in the city of Chicago. Former governor Bruce Rauner got 20.6 percent in the city in 2014."

In some ways, Pritzker finds himself " in the same position in the 2022 governor contest that Bruce Rauner was during the 2018 campaign. Back then, Rauner had a record to defend as governor while Pritzker was new. Now Pritzker is the chief executive with a record and his challenger could be new. Rauner was outspent by a wealthier individual, much like Griffin is in position to do to Pritzker this time around."

— Lightfoot has been spending campaign money faster than she has been raising it: And though she hasn't announced yet — the municipal elections are more than a year away -- Mayor Lori Lightfoot hinted she plans to run: "What I would say is, 'When that time comes, you better be ready, because my work is not done, and I'm yielding to no one." Tribune's Bill Ruthhart reports.

— Ex-city Building Commissioner Frydland urged to run for mayor:"Judy Frydland says she's done nothing about it — but doesn't close the door to taking on Mayor Lightfoot," by Crain's Greg Hinz.

— Jesse Reising, a former federal prosecutor and founder of a veterans service organization announced his campaign for Congress in Illinois' 13th Congressional District.

— Former state Rep. Mary Edly-Allen is being endorsed by state Sen. Melinda Bush for the seat Bush has decided to retire from.

— Big donors are behind campaigns of Springfield-area lawmakers: "[D]onations of $1,000 or more made up 72.65% of campaign fundraising in the fall. Most of these large donations came from special interest groups," by State Journal-Register's Andrew Adams.

DAY IN COURT

Dread Head Cowboy pleads guilty to animal cruelty for galloping horse on Dan Ryan: "Adam Hollingsworth was sentenced to a year in prison, according to court records. He had gained fame in 2020 through his positive interactions with police and protesters after the murder of George Floyd by a police officer," by Sun-Times' Matthew Hendrickson.

POT-POURRI

Big Weed is on the brink of scoring big political wins. So where are they? "Competing agendas have stifled the effectiveness of the burgeoning industry on Capitol Hill," by POLITICO's Hailey Fuchs and Natalie Fertig.

Reader Digest

We asked what you no longer do as a result of Covid? Attorney Gail Eisenberg no longer works downtown. "I joined my husband's law practice and predominantly work out of our home, even for court calls!" ... Timothy Thomas Jr. doesn't go to buffets, salad bars or water fountains. ... Priscila Calderon said goodbye to working at coffee shops. ... Pam Monetti, Macoupin County Democrats chair, stopped hosting family holiday gatherings. ... And Alison Pure-Slovin no longer hugs people hello.

What's a word that really grates on you? Email skapos@politico.com

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 
FROM THE DELEGATION

Durbin, fellow Dems vow to support Ukraine as 100,000 Russian troops gather on country's border: "I'm against any Russian incursion, aggression or invasion — however minor or major — on the borders of Ukraine," Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi said during an event Sunday celebrating the 103rd anniversary of the country's unification. Sun-Times' Tom Schuba reports.

THE NATIONAL TAKE

— U.S. orders diplomats' families to leave Ukraine, urges Americans to depart,by POLITICO's Nick Niedzwiadek, Nahal Toosi and Maeve Sheehey

— Army of millionaires flood Senate map in cash, by POLITICO's Natalie Allison

— Arizona Democratic Party censures Sinema over voting rights stance, by POLITICO's Maeve Sheehey

… Sinema's stand and its ripple effect on women's rights, by your Playbook host

— How a toxic chemical ended up in the drinking water supply for 13 million people, by POLITICO's Ry Rivard

SPOTTED

Former Mayor Richard M. Daley attended programs during the U.S. Conference of Mayors' meeting in D.C. last week and was spotted talking to President Joe Biden, who had addressed the crowd. Mayor Lori Lightfoot was among attendees. You can see her here at about 9:20 minutes.

TRANSITIONS

— Ameya Pawar, a former Chicago alderman who ran for governor in 2018, is now senior adviser and director of real estate developer Sunil Puri's First Midwest Group, handling the Chicago-area market. Pawar recently wrapped up a fellowship with George Soros' Open Society Foundation. Pawar will continue advising the University of Chicago's Inclusive Economy Lab, teaching at the university's Crown School of Social Work, and working with the Academy Group's anti-violence efforts.

—  Maddie Carlos is now Sen. Dick Durbin's press secretary. She previously was comms director for Rep. Deborah Ross (D-N.C.) and a member of former Sen. Joe Donnelly's (D-Ind.) press team.

IN MEMORIAM

— Remembering the tenacious Shirley Jane Haas, a former reporter and City Hall aide: "One big assignment was when she was sent to cover the 1956 Republican convention in San Francisco, to get 'the female perspective.' To obtain a coveted interview with Second Lady Pat Nixon, she crawled on her hands and knees through a crowded banquet hall until she reached Pat Nixon's table. Mrs. Nixon politely agreed to answer her questions, appreciating her moxie," according to her obituary.

— Ronald Ladley, a notable name in Republican and historian circles, via his obituary.

— Photographer Steve Schapiro, whose photos captured civil rights, arts 'time capsules,' dead at 87, by Sun-Times' Maureen O'Donnell.

TRIVIA

FRIDAY's ANSWER: Congrats Jarod Hitchings and Clem Balanoff for correctly answering that Paul Powell, former secretary of state, was known as "Mr. Downstate Democrat."

TODAY's QUESTION: Who voted on the cardinal becoming Illinois' state bird? Email skapos@politico.com

A message from CVS Health:

At CVS Health, we're more than 300,000 caring employees ensuring millions of Americans can access health care services.

We're offering COVID-19 vaccines at more than 9,600 CVS Pharmacy locations nationwide.

Nothing should stand in the way of mental health and well-being, so we're increasing remote access to mental health services.

We're supporting safer pregnancies and expanding access to prenatal and postpartum care via telemedicine.

Recognizing the strong connection between housing and health, we're investing in affordable housing to support underserved populations and build healthier communities.

Every day, CVS Health works to bring quality, affordable health care into neighborhoods, homes and hands—so it's never out of reach for anyone.

Healthier Happens Together. Learn more.

 
HAPPY BIRTHDAY

Springfield Ald. Joe McMenamin, and former OMB Director and HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan.

-30-

 

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