| | | | | |  | | By Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Zi-Ann Lum with Erica Ifill | Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Nick | Follow Politico Canada WELCOME TO OTTAWA PLAYBOOK, I'm your host, Nick Taylor-Vaisey. Today, Ontario reacts to a lockdown most hoped was a thing of the past. Also, writer and podcaster ERICA IFILL shares what she's watching for in Parliament this year. Also, ZI-ANN LUM has the latest on the Canada-U.S. spud spat. |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | BUCKLE UP, ONTARIO — It feels like an eternity from now, but Ontario Premier DOUG FORD is five months less a day from the election that will either hand him four more years or relegate him to the ranks of one-term premiers. — It's all about ratings: Ford's personal popularity graph makes a decent impression of a roller coaster. A month before the pandemic, Angus Reid pegged his approval rating at 31 percent. His numbers soared when Covid hit before falling back to pre-pandemic levels last spring. The premier's reelection prospects have ranged considerably. He was out of his element during that disastrous first year before winning over the province with a daily dose of empathy in the pandemic's deadly first wave. His critics have loudly condemned him at almost every turn. Still, Leger gave Ford's Progressive Conservatives a 10-point lead in December with Liberals and New Democrats dueling for second place. — That's the backdrop to this: Ford unleashed new restrictions Monday as Omicron spiked case counts in his province. He shut schools, canceled surgeries, closed theaters and forbid indoor dining. The measures come into effect tomorrow. Patios are open for the bravest among us. Ford called Omicron a "tsunami." He said the variant's spread "can't be stopped." He acknowledged that hospitalization rates are lower than during the deadly Delta's worst wave, but warned of overwhelm even if only 1 percent of cases end up in hospital. — The verdict from health experts: Too little, too late, told you so. Public health experts in the province — and across the country — had warned for weeks that Omicron's off-the-charts transmissibility would fuel a startling new wave of infections at a time when Covid-weary families — boosted or not — were overdue to gather for the holidays. Recall the words of SABINA VOHRA-MILLER, a health advocate and co-founder of the Vohra-Miller Foundation, in a mid-December Playbook. "We know people are going to get together during the holidays. And this is going to cause exponential growth. I mean, there's already exponential growth," she told us on Dec. 15. "We have to be proactive, not wait until things have gotten out of control. It is so much harder to get things back under control when it's already past that point." At the time, Ontario logged 1,808 new cases. Two days before Christmas, the number jumped to 5,790. On New Year's Eve, it hit 16,790. — The federal response: Senior federal cabinet ministers spent Monday tweeting eligibility information for lockdown support programs approved by Parliament in the final hours before a six-week winter recess that ends on Jan. 31. Liberal MP MARK GERRETSEN, one of the rowdier Liberals in the Commons, was more blunt : "Just for the record, @fordnation has had 22 months to invest in new ICU beds, nurses, doctors and health care professionals. The element of surprise should no longer be a given." — The business response: JAN DE SILVA, president and CEO of the Toronto Region Board of Trade, panned Ford's announcement . Ontarians, she said, deserve better: "They should be benefiting from proactive government-implemented mitigations that would provide more protection against the variant of today and the variant of tomorrow." — The public response: Ford's double-digit lead is no accident. The premier's harshest and loudest enemies on social media drowned out voters who still like what they see at Queen's Park. But one of his core constituencies detests government overreach. Another lockdown could prove disastrous. — In related reading: Innovative Research pollster GREG LYLE takes the temperature of the nation amid the new spate of restrictions. And on CBC's Frontburner podcast this morning: Dr. BRIAN GOLDMAN on Omicron, school closures and what such restrictions might accomplish. | | PERSPECTIVES | | WHAT TO WATCH IN 2022 — Playbook has invited some of your favorite political podcasters to share their thoughts on the year ahead. You will know ERICA IFILL from The Bad + Bitchy podcast. You may also know her from her column in The Hill Times. She is also the founder of Not In My Colour, an equity and inclusion consultancy that builds inclusive workplaces. Here are the issues she'll be following this year: We will soon enter Year 3 of the pandemic with a new variant ravaging communities like a wrecking ball. The prime minister is nowhere to be found — despite his once daily Covid briefings. Against anxiety and stress over ever-revolving Covid protocols, Canadians have largely been abandoned to deal with this pandemic ourselves. We enter 2022 with a crisis of leadership in Canada. Canadians confuse authority with leadership ; those with rank are assumed to have competencies that equip them to lead. Incompetence is the status quo. We face multiple crises I hope Parliament will tackle in a real way in 2022: — Climate/environmental justice: The impact of climate change is not borne equally by all and without Indigenous leadership — not partnership — we will fail. — Digital justice: 2020 is the year the internet became IRL for all of us, as a function of the ongoing pandemic. Technologically driven harms, such as facial recognition systems, are quietly being used by our governments without much oversight and whose distortive effects fall disproportionately on marginalized communities. — Ending structural white supremacy, which includes expanding Indigenous rights, combating systemic racism and the systemic misogyny that leads to violence against women and Bill 21. These are big asks for this lot. These men — and I emphasize men — have tapped out when they were needed most. How this dereliction of duty will resonate with Canadians will determine the level of trust we have in those institutions, who are expected to lead us through these crises. Consider the public service: The Canadian Armed Forces, the RCMP and the former governor general's toxic workplace are examples of institutions that turned on the people they claimed to lead. While working for Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada I reported to the deputy minister the racism and toxicity I experienced. He did nothing. There's a reason both Black and Indigenous federal public service employees have launched class action lawsuits against the federal government . These are the realities under the veneer of Trudeau's claims of diversity and inclusion. This hypocrisy will become more evident as political "leaders" scramble to position themselves on Bill 21, in the wake of Quebec's provincial election in October. This bill is a discriminatory one, but our leaders have either defended Quebec or been silent. ERIN O'TOOLE has castigated those in his caucus who publicly protested the bill, JUSTIN TRUDEAU's stance is to do nothing, which is apropos for him, and JAGMEET SINGH's response to Bill 21, in this year's English leaders' debate, was to side with white supremacy and patriarchy against a woman of color, SHACHI KURL, for asking the necessary questions our "leaders" should've been asking in the first place. And what did she get for showing leadership where others showed their fecklessness? Derision and ridicule. Perhaps because in this country you have to have the right face (i.e. race) and gender to be considered a leader — and we see how well that's working out for us in this pandemic hellscape. Catch more of Erica Ifill on The Bad + Bitchy podcast. Back to the Playbook crew: WHAT YOU'RE WATCHING — Playbook invited readers to share the events on their radar in 2022. Here is some of what reader ALAN KAN told us: I'm paying attention to a variety of electoral contests. The obvious ones are the provincial votes in Ontario (June 2) and Quebec (Oct. 3). Ontario's municipal elections take place Oct. 24. I'm waiting to see if JOHN TORY in Toronto will reoffer for a third term. If he doesn't, that race is going to be blown wide open. I'm also watching Milton to see if 84-year-old GORD KRANTZ, mayor since 1980, runs again. There will be municipal elections in British Columbia (Oct. 15), Manitoba (Oct. 26) and Prince Edward Island (Nov. 7). Winnipeg Mayor BRIAN BOWMAN is not running again leaving that city's mayoral contest wide open. In Ottawa, Mayor JIM WATSON has said he won't stand again. The Vancouver mayoral race is also looking strong. For more from Kan, check out his newsletter on municipal politics. — In related reading: Here's Foreign Policy's 14 presidential and parliamentary elections to watch in 2022. | | ASK US ANYTHING | | What are you watching in 2022? What are you hearing that you need Playbook to know? Send it all our way. | | TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS | | — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will be up early to receive his third dose of Covid vaccine. Later, he'll be briefed by Chief Public Health Officer THERESA TAM. He'll also speak with B.C. Premier JOHN HORGAN, who happens to be the chair of the Council of the Federation. (On the agenda: Healthcare funding?) — Indigenous Services Minister PATTY HAJDU, Crown-Indigenous Relations Minister MARC MILLER and Justice Minister DAVID LAMETTI will hold a 1 ET presser on the state of negotiations with Indigenous groups on compensation for children who were mistreated by child and family services programs. The Assembly of First Nations, the Chiefs of Ontario, the Nishnawbe Aski Nation, and counsel for the Moushoom and Trout class actions will also be there. — Ottawa Mayor JIM WATSON will react to Ontario's new restrictions at 2 p.m., flanked by top doctor VERA ETCHES, health board chair KEITH EGLI and emergency and protective services boss KIM AYOTTE. | | HOUSE BUSINESS | | POSITIVE TESTS — Agriculture Minister MARIE-CLAUDE BIBEAU announced a positive Covid result on Monday and mild symptoms, "despite spending the holiday season quietly at home." Bibeau is the third federal cabmin to test positive since the start of the holidays (see: MÉLANIE JOLY, SEAMUS O'REGAN). EYES ON POTATOES — Tensions between Ottawa and Charlottetown over the continued suspension of P.E.I. seed potato exports prompted Veterans Affairs Minister LAWRENCE MACAULAY to wade into the tater tiff. The Islander and ex-dairy and potato farmer called the matter his "absolutely top priority" on Monday. — Quick refresh: Canada temporarily suspended seed potato exports in late November following the discovery of potato wart in two fields. New export certificates for fresh potatoes have also been temporarily halted. P.E.I. DENNIS KING led a provincial delegation to Washington last month to bring the province's potatoes back to U.S. and Puerto Rican tables. He accused Ottawa of "silly BS" in continuing the export ban. — Blame game: MacAulay said even if Ottawa lifted its own export ban, it won't help farmers to get more than 300 millions of pounds of in-situ potatoes moving stateside. "It would lead, immediately, to an American order banning P.E.I. potatoes that would have no end in sight, and the U.S. has already instructed their border services to reject P.E.I. potatoes at the border," the veteran Liberal said in a statement. "I can assure you that playing politics and casting blame on each other isn't going to convince the Americans that our potatoes are safe." — Next moves : The fate of P.E.I.'s potatoes hangs on U.S. officials' review of data and mitigation measures provided by the Canadian Food Inspection Agency. In the meantime, more than 300 million pounds of missing P.E.I. potatoes from the U.S. market haven't led to noticeable shortages stateside. "Imports of potatoes from P.E.I. to the U.S. make up two percent of total U.S. supply," National Potato Council spokesperson MARK SZYMANSKI told POLITICO Pro in mid-December. "No shortage has been created." | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Birthdays: HBD to economist and author PETER TERTZAKIAN. This gives us another chance to promote his interview with ANDREW WEAVER — a must-listen for anyone working in and around climate policy. YASMIN RATANSI and JOHN NUNZIATA also celebrate today. Spotted: Everyone's on Wordle now: TIM MURPHY , FATIMA SYED, RAISA PATEL, BRIAN PLATT, DENISE BALKISSOON , ELAMIN ABDELMAHMOUD, KALEIGH ROGERS, JESSE BROWN, STEPHANIE MACLELLAN . (What's Wordle? This is.) U.S. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN released his 2021 Spotify playlist — first song is "Save Your Tears" from The Weeknd. (h/t POLITICO West Wing Playbook) Movers and shakers: CHRISTIANA AGUSTIN is the newest policy adviser in MARY NG's office. … ARIEL TROSTER, a comms adviser at the Federation of Canadian Municipalities, is running for Ottawa city council in the seat vacated by mayoral candidate CATHERINE MCKENNEY. … MIKE THERIEN is a new deputy managing director at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute. In Monday's Playbook, we shared a long list of new Canadian envoys. In case you missed it south of the border, Sen. TED CRUZ (R- Texas) agreed to lift his blanket hold on State Department nominees, which means the following U.S. embassies will be getting their leaders in the new year: Algeria, Angola, Argentina, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belgium, Benin, Bosnia, Brunei, Cameroon, Central African Republic, republic of Congo, Costa Rica, Equatorial Guinea, The Gambia, Guinea, Japan, Lesotho, Moldova, Mozambique, Paraguay, Poland, Senegal, Slovenia, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Sweden, Switzerland, Togo and Vietnam. — Not on the list: U.K., Germany, France, India. (h/t POLITICO's Global Insider) Media mentions: SEAN SILCOFF reflects on a decade at the Globe and Mail. … Bloomberg's SHELLY HAGAN has left the Hill beat for the Lone Star state. … The Canadian Journalism Foundation invites applications for the 2022 CJF-CBC Indigenous Journalism Fellowships. (h/t DUNCAN MCCUE) Farewells: LINA DIB of La Presse Canadienne has departed Parliament Hill after 25 years. "Being witness to history as it is made, waiting for hours in a corridor for history to be made, seeing how much history just repeats itself, not taking it, or me, too seriously … what a blast!" she shared in a note to the Parliamentary Press Gallery just before the holidays. | | PROZONE | | If you are a subscriber, catch the latest Pro Canada PM newsletter: 2022? Feels like 2020, too. The U.S. House and Senate have published schedules for when they will be in session in 2022. Download your calendar here via POLITICO Pro's DataPoint. In other news for Pros: — Ontario closes schools and tightens Covid rules against Omicron 'tsunami.'
— FDA authorizes Covid boosters for teens 12-15.
— Germany downplays coalition anger over 'dangerous' EU nuclear push.
— A Georgia solar factory shows the promise — and peril — of Biden's new industrial policy. | | MEDIA ROOM | | — Top of POLITICO this morning: Amazon and Google deploy their armies to thwart antitrust bills. — TARA HENLEY launches Lean Out, and her inaugural Substack post explains — with many adjectives — why she left the CBC. — "Plastics and climate aren't separate issues," REBECCA ALTMAN writes in The Atlantic. "Plastics are poised to dominate the 21st century as one of the yet-unchecked drivers of climate change." — Via our colleagues in Europe: Brexit Britain at 1: Here's what we've learned. — From the CBC's SOPHIA HARRIS: Dozens of big companies headed by top-paid CEOs collected COVID-19 government benefits: report. — ADEN SEATON of The Low Down to Hull & Back News wrote a piece for The Globe on Bill 21. She's also a parent of kids at Chelsea Elementary School in Quebec. — Need a smart way to keep up with energy and environmental politics and policy news? The POLITICO Energy podcast serves up five-minute episodes weekday mornings. Listen and subscribe. | | WE GET MAIL | | NEW YEAR'S RESOLUTION — Just before the break, we asked Playbook readers about their hopes for Parliament in 2022. Here is some of what reader JOHN ECKER shared with us: My fondest wish is that the whole Parliament of Canada — all parties and all party leaders, except the BQ, of course! — grow a spine and stand up against Quebec's odious Bill 21. I want our elected and accountable Canadian MPs to use every tool at their disposal to stop this discrimination against people of faith who choose to wear religious symbols. So long as the people wearing such symbols do so of their own free will, so be it. I have been so very disappointed that the party leaders have not strongly stood up against this affront to our democracy, minority groups and our fundamental and religious freedoms. I know it's all rooted in a cynical political calculus and that's what makes it all the more disturbing. So, if all the House Leaders (except the BQ, of course) could get the parties to agree to a strategy, they could do together what they are too afraid to do alone. That would be a great way to start a new year. Send us your 2022 resolutions for the people you sent to Ottawa. Be kind, be harsh, be festive, be fiscally prudent if you wish. We'll publish the best entries. | | TRIVIA | | Monday's answer: PAUL MARTIN SR. introduced the bill titled The Canadian Citizenship Act in 1946. Hear a recording from the first citizenship ceremony. Props to MICHAEL MACDONALD, CULLY ROBINSON, LEIGH LAMPERT, BOB GORDON, JOHN GUOBA, WAYNE FLEMING, ZEV LEWIS, LORETTA O'CONNOR, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, BRAM ABRAMSON. HNY, everyone! Tuesday's question: Why was a Canadian-led NATO training mission in Iraq temporarily suspended on this date in 2020? Send your answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Have a petition you want signed? A cause you're promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Alejandra Waase to find out how: awaase@politico.com. Playbook wouldn't happen without Luiza Ch. Savage, editor Sue Allan, Andy Blatchford and Zi-Ann Lum.
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