Hi China Watchers. This week we unpack how a possible Russia-Ukraine conflict may influence China's intentions toward Taiwan. We'll also look at sensitivity training for empathy-impaired venture capitalists, go courtside with PENG SHUAI activists at the Australian Open and launch a semi-regular feature on China-related books we're calling "One Book, Three Questions." Got a book to recommend? Tell me about it at pkine@politico.com. And join us for coffee next Wednesday! We're hosting a Twitter Spaces conversation at 9AM ET on Feb. 2 about the 2022 Beijing Olympics. Panelists include Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), a co-chair of the Congressional-Executive Commission on China; Sophie Richardson, China director at Human Rights Watch; Noah Hoffman, two-time U.S. Winter Olympian; and Melissa Chan , an independent journalist. We'll take your questions and dig deep into what I predicted in May would be " Beijing's Olympic Debacle." Let's get to it. — Phelim Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN's aggressive brinkmanship toward Ukraine has profound implications for another territory facing intensifying military intimidation from an authoritarian neighbor — Taiwan. The Chinese government of President XI JINPING has declared its spectator status to the Ukraine crisis through restrained Foreign Ministry commentary that mouths calls to "resolve differences through dialogue and consultation" rather thandiplomatic wolf howls at the presence of some 100,000 Russian troops massed on Ukraine's borders. The bland language cloaks intense self-interest in both the degree to which Putin will push his claims and the intensity of international resolve to stop him. The Chinese government sees parallels to Russia's designs on Ukraine in China's claims on Taiwan. For the ruling Chinese Communist Party, Russia's confrontation with Ukraine and its international response is an invaluable real-time lesson on the cost-benefit of possible future military action to "reclaim" Taiwan. "Where Putin and Xi's interests converge is in discrediting American security guarantees and undermining faith in the resolve and capabilities of the United States. China's ability to bully its neighbors grows in proportion to their doubts about whether America will ride to their rescue," DANNY RUSSEL, assistant secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs under President BARACK OBAMA, told China Watcher in a statement. "If Putin should invade and refuse to withdraw from Ukraine, the failure of the U.S. to deter him followed by the failure to expel him would vastly strengthen Beijing's campaign to convince people on Taiwan (and elsewhere in Asia) that 'resistance is futile' because the U.S. security pledges are no longer credible." The Biden administration is already concerned about China's aggressive posture in the Taiwan Strait. Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN noted an ominous pattern of intensifying incursions of Chinese military aircraft into Taiwan's air defense zone. Taiwan recorded 39 such flights on Sunday alone, the highest number since October. "It looks a lot like them exploring their true capabilities and sure it looks a lot like rehearsals," Austin said in a speech last month to the Reagan National Defense Forum. Perhaps inspired by last week'sjoint exercises by Chinese, Russian and Iranian naval units, U.K. Foreign Secretary LIZ TRUSS speculated Saturday that Russia and China may create a simultaneous two-prong military crisis in Europe and the Indo-Pacific. "I don't think we can rule that out [because] Russia is working more closely with China than it ever has," Truss said in an interview with the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age. Russia's ambassador to China, ANDREY DENISOV, confirmed Tuesday that Russia was briefing China on its security talks with the U.S. and that "our Chinese friends are paying close attention." Former Australian Prime Minister PAUL KEATING derided Truss' speculation as " nothing short of demented." The White House is less skeptical. In a response to a reporter's question last month about a " nightmare scenario " in which Russian invades Ukraine and China attacks Taiwan simultaneously, national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN replied that "the United States is going to take every action that we can take, from the point of view of both deterrence and diplomacy, to make sure that the Taiwan scenario you just described never happens." Meanwhile, there were whispers in Beijing diplomatic circles this week that Xi had signaled support for a Russian invasion of Ukraine by asking Putin to postpone it until after the close of the 2022 Beijing Olympic Games. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson ZHAO LIJIAN dismissed that allegation as a " despicable trick." The Chinese remember the brief-but-bitter 1969 border conflict with the then-Soviet Union and foster a reflexive suspicion about Russian military aggression. "Secretly [China] would not be pleased to see Russia invading a neighboring country, and any precedent it sets, given their border and history with the Russians and [China's] rabid insistence on 'sovereignty,'" said WINSTON LORD, assistant secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs under President BILL CLINTON. The value to China of potential Russian moves on Ukraine hinges on the intensity and effectiveness of international opposition to the aggression. That response will provide the Chinese government a barometer of potential consequences of a military move against Taiwan. "Beijing also took notes while observing [Russia's] annexation of Crimea in 2014," said ALICA KIZEKOVA, head of the Asia Pacific Unit at Prague's Institute of International Relations. "China will be watching what kind of blow is dealt to the Russian army and to the Russian economy should this invasion move forward," Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.) said in a video briefing Wednesday. "There's no doubt that the Chinese have designs to reclaim Taiwan and the playbook that the world will witness over the course of the next several months will be very instructive to the Chinese." Fear of an inadequate response by the U.S. and its allies to a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine prompted Sen. MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.) to caution last week of a looming "new dark age" of global authoritarian aggression. "If Putin is able to move into Ukraine, take on a few sanctions and some international condemnation, but ultimately, not pay a terrible price, it doesn't just impact Ukraine, it becomes the model that China, Iran, North Korea and the other rogue governments around the world will follow," Rubio said in a video he tweeted. Chinese government rhetoric would appear to support Rubio's pessimism. Xi has refused to renounce the use of force against Taiwan, warned he'll take "all necessary measures" to absorb the self-governing island and threatened to "smash" any moves toward Taiwan independence. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Mark Milley stated in June that China was pursuing a capacity "to invade and hold Taiwan within the next six years." But unlike Ukraine, the U.S. has explicitly committed through the Taiwan Relations Act to "resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion" directed at Taiwan. President JOE BIDEN declared in October that the U.S. would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack. White House spokesperson JEN PSAKI then furiously refuted speculation that Biden had reversed a long-standing policy of " strategic ambiguity" on how the U.S. would respond to Chinese aggression. But military force is just one element in the ruling Chinese Communist Party's toolbox — along with economic coercion and psychological warfare tactics — aimed at pushing the island toward "reunification." "[Beijing] won't use Putin's thuggish tactics as a template — instead, the CCP will practice 'brinkmanship with Chinese characteristics' … think Sun Tzu 'win without fighting,'" said Russel. Taiwan is less sanguine about the protection the decades-old U.S. security umbrella may provide in the face of an increasingly aggressive military threat across the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan's foreign ministerwarned in October that the island's government is "very concerned that China is going to launch a war against Taiwan at some point." Taiwan's Foreign Ministry has limited official comment on the Ukraine crisis to a statement Tuesday expressing "grave concerns about the rising tensions." But the island's military is clearly mindful of the dangerous cross-Strait implications of a successful Russian takeover of even a portion of Ukraine. "China is watching very, very closely, there's no doubt about that," said retired Adm. LEE HSI-MIN , senior fellow at the Project 2049 Institute, an Arlington, Va.-based think tank, and former chief of general staff of Taiwan's armed forces. "No matter the results of the Ukraine [confrontation], I don't think there will be an immediate full-scale invasion of Taiwan, but if they find out that this salami-slice tactic [of seizing Ukraine territory] works for Russia, they may try to take one of Taiwan's offshore islands." TRANSLATING WASHINGTON — DIPLOMATIC FAMILIES SEEK 'ZERO-COVID' ESCAPE: Concerns about the impact of China's " zero Covid strategy " on diplomatic families has prompted the U.S. Mission in China to seek State Department approval for an "authorized departure" of embassy and consular employees and their families. Diplomats with children are particularly concerned about the possibility that a positive Covid test in a diplomatic family "could potentially separate underage children from parents," CNN reported Wednesday. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao called the request "confusing and hardly justifiable." The State Department neither confirmed nor denied that the U.S. Mission in China had filed such a request. "The operating status at our Mission in the PRC has not changed," a State Department spokesperson told China Watcher. — BLINKEN BASHES BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN warned Monday that China's Belt and Road Initiative is burying developing countries in dangerous debt traps. Xi's signature international infrastructure development program is burdening developing countries with "tremendous debts that they couldn't afford and couldn't get out of," Blinken said at the FRAN EIZENSTAT and Eizenstat Family Memorial Lecture Series. Blinken instead touted the "high standards" of the Biden administration's Build Back Better World program. Blinken's comments echo criticisms of onerous loan repayment burdens for Chinese-built infrastructure in Sri Lanka, Laos and Uganda. Chinese Foreign Minister WANG YI on Jan. 7 dismissed such assertions as "malicious hype-up." — BIDEN, KISHIDA WARN ON CHINA NUKES: Biden and Japanese Prime Minister KISHIDA FUMIO devoted part of their 90-minute Friday video call to concerns about China's "nuclear buildup." Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao dismissed that allegation as "a trick to … conceal their deplorable track record in the nuclear sector." That's an implicit reference to the 4,000 nuclear warheads in the U.S. arsenal compared to China's 350. "We have to remember how imbalanced the nuclear arsenals are between the United States and China and that China's is far inferior to the United States," MIKE MOCHIZUKI, Japan-U.S. relations chair at George Washington University, told China Watcher. "We should not just say China is to blame [but] that it's an interactive dynamic and unless we recognize that we're not going to be able to restrain the emerging arms race [in Asia]." — SMITH'S SENSITIVITY SCHOOLING FOR CHAMATH: Venture capitalist CHAMATH PALIHAPITIYA's China saga continues. After being publicly disgraced for declaring in a video podcast that "nobody cares about the Uyghurs," Rep. CHRIS SMITH (R-N.J.) last week issued an open invitation to Chamath "to sit down with me and learn more about this issue." Chamath has not publicly commented on Smith's offer as he grapples with the fallout from his comments, including the Wisconsin Democratic Party's decision to return a $10,000 donation Chamath contributed last year.
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