Catch up with Global Insider: I joined the latest episode of the Altamar podcast to review 2021 and look at the most likely trends of 2022. Normally, I can't stand those types of cliched conversations — but Peter Schechter and Muni Jensen brokered a really good discussion. COVID — STUCK ON REPEAT The pandemic is becoming endemic in rich country after rich country. The most telling indicator is skyrocketing case numbers but hospital and death numbers that remain either steady or low (depending on the vaccination rate and underlying health of the affected population). The biggest question that trend raises is how long countries in the Asia-Pacific with "zero Covid" policies and/or severe entry restrictions can maintain them. North Asia's biggest economies have been physically cut off from the world for nearly two years, with China as the biggest case study. Trade deals like RCEP may mask some of that negative economic impact, but what's the point of lockdown after lockdown, when the Omicron variant and China's less effective homegrown vaccines mean Xi won't be able to deliver zero Covid, even with the assistance of high tech surveillance and a police state? The real innovations in 2022 won't be from a competition for the harshest lockdown, they're set to come from vaccine breakthroughs: — A vaccine against all variants is in development, thanks to the U.S. Army. — Japan's lifetime Covid shot will enter human trials in coming months. — Texas delivers a patent-free (and cheap) Covid vaccine: Texas Children's Hospital and Baylor College of Medicine have secured emergency authorization in India for a new Covid vaccine. The partners have 150 million doses ready now, and will be making 100 million per month. The underlying technology has been transferred to Indian partners with no patent and no strings attached, meaning its developers expect it will become the cheapest vaccine on the market. — Latin America has used mix-and-match vaccine procurement and distribution to become the most vaccinated continent (excluding Australia, of course, which is aided by a single border and small population). Over 62 percent of the total Latin American population is vaccinated. But beating Covid still requires cold, hard cash. President Joe Biden wants to vaccinate the world, for example, but USAID is running short on money. If he's not willing to let U.S. vaccine makers sell their products on the open global market, USAID will need roughly four times the $1.6 billion they've been relying on to get the global vaccination job done. BY THE NUMBERS Global GDP: The International Monetary Fund forecasts 4.9 percent growth in 2022, while Morgan Stanley says it will be 4.7 percent. Global Covid vaccination rate: 48 percent (at least two doses), and 57 percent (at least one dose). Global Carbon Emissions: Can any readers explain why international institutions don't forecast this number? It seems like an obvious gap in our statistics-hungry world. Let me know at rheath@politico.com. Here is the best 2021 estimate. IMPORTANT 2022 DATES 2022 ELECTION CALENDAR BEST OF THE REST CORPORATE CORNER The anxious work world is here to stay for a while yet, and few of the usual markers of corporate success are carrying their impact into this new era. Take record-beating mergers and acquisitions numbers: Deals worth more than $5.8 trillion were agreed globally in 2021, according to data firm Refinitiv: that's 54 percent higher than the 2019 pre-pandemic record. What's the main reaction? It's not applause for the deal-makers, it's an antitrust backlash from legislators and regulators. Elsewhere … CEO anxiety is skyrocketing: The triggers are forms of pressure for radical change both from employees, and regulators: See this new "disruption index" report from AlixPartners, a consulting firm, which interviewed CEOs of companies with more than $100 million in annual revenue: 94 percent say their business model needs to change, and 72 percent are worried about losing their job in 2022. Overemployed — the folks working two remote jobs to build their nest egg: Anxious CEOs don't have this luxury. But using remote work flexibility to juggle two jobs, while hiding that fact from their employers, is working for some. Mandated vacation and relaxation time: This is becoming an increasingly popular company perk. And it's the latest sign that while many in America must struggle to get by on tipped wages or salaries that most people reading this newsletter wouldn't get out of bed for … others in corporate American essentially have a Western European working arrangement (regular vacations, "summer Fridays," flexible work hours). Resumes on the way out: Sorry about that expensive degree. The trend is towards work samples and other skill showcases. AROUND THE WORLD CHINA'S GLOBAL DIGITAL HUNT FOR CRITICS: Chinese police are increasingly using agents abroad and issuing threats against China-based family members as leverage against the regime's critics outside of China. A New York Times investigation. We shouldn't be surprised: these tactics have been in use in Hong Kong for years. The latest bad news was the security forces' raid of Stand News, a pro-democracy outlet, and the arrest of seven including editor-in-chief Patrick Lam, causing the outlet to shut down permanently. RUSSIA — PUTTING A NUMBER ON CORRUPTION: Russian officials are paid nearly $100 billion every year in side payments. That's nearly 10 percent of the country's total GDP. ETHIOPIA — TRADING DOWN: Ethiopia is losing access to a lucrative U.S. trade program, following a CNN investigation into human rights abuses. INDIGENOUS POPULATIONS IN SPOTLIGHT AUSTRALIA — PAYING TRIBUTE, OR IS IT JUST LIP SERVICE? What does a "welcome to country" mean, when that country offers you life expectancy 20 years shorter than the white population? FINLAND — FROM VICTIM NARRATIVE TO OPPRESSOR: Finland's national mythology hinges on the country's centuries-long fight to beat off Russian and Swedish oppressors. Now Finland's leader Sanna Marin promises the truth about four centuries of "cultural genocide" against the country's indigenous Sami people, to be aired before an independent truth and reconciliation commission. Fewer than 10,000 Sami remain in Finland.
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