The next parliamentary battleground

Jan 07, 2022

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WELCOME TO OTTAWA PLAYBOOK. I'm your host, Nick Taylor-Vaisey. TGIF after your first week back from holidays. Today we're looking into our crystal ball and predicting rancorous, acrimonious, argumentative committee meetings in the very near future. Plus ça change in Ottawa, right?

DRIVING THE DAY

TARGET: HESA — Conservative leader ERIN O'TOOLE chose a Wednesday presser to sharpen the contours of his next Covid fight with JUSTIN TRUDEAU's Liberals. His favored arena: the House health committee (aka HESA).

— The argument: Quebec has a curfew. Ontario has reverted to a partial lockdown. O'Toole name-checked kids who are back to virtual schooling, business owners who are shutting their doors and everyone else who's being asked to "sacrifice their civil liberties" as healthcare systems grapple with Omicron.

He blamed Trudeau for it all. "In a population that is now largely fully vaccinated, in fact the action and inaction by the Trudeau government is normalizing lockdowns and restrictions as the primary tool to fight the latest COVID-19 variant. It didn't have to be this way." Liberals will quibble with O'Toole's silence on provincial competence, but the Conservative leader's job is to oppose. So oppose he will.

— Times change: Recall that only a year ago, O'Toole was leading the opposition charge against a government he said was way behind peer countries on vaccinating its people. By the summer, Canada had lapped other developed nations and achieved world leader status. But we digress.

— The new battleground: O'Toole called for emergency meetings of HESA to study the Liberals' apparent failures — not a bad idea, really, given the rapid spread of Omicron and persistent fears that healthcare systems are on the brink. That'll put the spotlight on the committee chair and every party's leading figures. Who are they?

Liberal MP SEAN CASEY chairs the committee. He's been elected for a decade — a rare Liberal elected during the party's 2011 meltdown — and held the gavel at the Commons human resources committee in the last Parliament. The P.E.I. MP also sits on the veterans affairs committee, which keeps an eye on the department headquartered in his constituency. But Playbook bets he'll focus on HESA.

Olympic gold medalist ADAM VAN KOEVERDEN is parliamentary secretary to Health Minister JEAN-YVES DUCLOS . He's the government's first line of defense at HESA — a serious test of his rhetorical bona fides as he enters his second term.

Conservative MP LUC BERTHOLD is the party's shadow minister for health and committee vice chair. STEPHEN ELLIS, a rookie Nova Scotia MP, was a family physician who oversaw his region's response to Covid. He's now his party's "special adviser" on the virus. They'll lead the Tory side.

The resident New Democrat at HESA is DON DAVIES, a member of the committee since early 2016 and a vocal critic of the Liberal pandemic response from Day 1.

Bloc Quebecois MP LUC THÉRIAULT, the second vice-chair who's also sat on the committee since the beginning of the global nightmare, rounds out the opposition.

— Notable notables: The Liberals also have a couple of doctors at the table: MARCUS POWLOWSKI, a northern Ontario MD and outspoken MP; and BRENDAN HANLEY, a rookie parliamentarian whose last gig served Yukoners as medical officer of health. SONIA SIDHU also worked as a diabetes educator.

MAJID JOWHARI has sat on the Liberal benches since Trudeau's first win. SHELBY KRAMP-NEUMAN, another first-time MP, is the Tory critic for seniors.

— What's next: The committee only needs four MPs to agree to a meeting. The odds are good it won't only be Tories who want to talk urgently about just how poorly they think Liberals are managing Omicron. Prepare for opposition rants and lengthy Liberal filibusters. And if PIERRE POILIEVRE gets his wish for emergency finance committee meetings — that's FINA, for short — expect much the same.

IRAN WON'T PLAY BALL — The multilateralists gave it their level best. Saturday marks the two-year anniversary of the Iranian military's downing of Ukrainian International Airlines Flight PS752, a missile strike that killed dozens of Canadians.

Soon after the tragedy, Canada joined with the other nations who'd lost citizens — Afghanistan, Sweden, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom — to demand answers from Iran. Afghanistan has been dropped from the group's communiqués, but Thursday brought an admission of failure: Iran wouldn't honor any requests for reparations negotiations.

Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY tweeted from Mont-Tremblant that allied nations "will now focus on subsequent actions to take to resolve this matter in accordance with international law." The communiqué lacked specifics.

Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will join a private virtual discussion with the families of the victims today at 11:30. Also in attendance: Joly, Transport Minister OMAR ALGHABRA , Immigration Minister SEAN FRASER, and High Commissioner in the U.K. RALPH GOODALE, who penned a report on the tragedy.

On Saturday, Trudeau and Joly will make remarks at a virtual anniversary event hosted by the families. Ontario Premier DOUG FORD, Toronto Mayor JOHN TORY and Ukrainian Ambassador ANDRIY SHEVCHENKO will also deliver messages.

— The last word: That goes to BRETT BYERS , a comms manager at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute: "Looking forward to seeing what this international legal action entails. Hopefully it serves as an awakening for Ottawa about the odiousness of the regime in Tehran."

PERSPECTIVES

Corey Hogan co-hosts The Strategists podcast

Photo courtesy of Corey Hogan | Corey Hogan, co-host of The Strategists

WHAT TO WATCH IN 2022 — Playbook has invited some of your favorite political podcasters to share their thoughts on the year ahead. COREY HOGAN is a host of the Canadian political podcast The Strategists . He is a vice president at the University of Calgary and a former senior government official, having led communications for Alberta premiers RACHEL NOTLEY and JASON KENNEY.

For me, 2022 is a time to go looking for canaries in coal mines; harbingers of future events. I'll be watching for signs of what is likely to happen in 2023, 2024 and beyond.

— First up: Will Alberta's deeply unpopular governing party [set itself up for a second term or will it] go down in history as a one-term "accidental UCP government"?

While we can all see the sketch marks of a once-unimaginable UCP collapse, that future is not yet inked. Watch for the outcome of Jason Kenney's leadership review, of course, but know that a popular leader has never been a prerequisite for conservative success in Alberta.

No matter who leads the UCP, their chance of success depends on two things: grabbing hold of the economic narrative in a way that has eluded Alberta premiers since 2014; and keeping their coalition of urban Tories and rural so-cons from falling to pieces.

If the good times are coming back and if the team can hold, the UCP will have a gambler's chance. If either condition fails, Albertans can look forward to being confused as to how to number RACHEL NOTLEY's non-consecutive terms in the not-too-distant future.

— Second: Who will lead the Liberals into the next election?

Trudeau remains, of course, the undisputed leader of all things Liberal. But for the first time in a long time, his party can see past his leadership. The man himself, robbed of his majority and burdened by six years of governing, appears exhausted by the job.

If Trudeau doesn't bring forward new energy and an ambitious reboot of his policy agenda in 2022, that will be a strong signal his time is winding down. As well, Liberal luminaries will ultimately need to drop the polite we're-all-one-team act and start organizing around their own ambitions if they don't want to concede the job to CHRYSTIA FREELAND.

— Finally, and most importantly: We should all be watching the U.S midterm elections very carefully.

The United States' continued slide into illiberalism could foreshadow dark times in Canada. Not only do we Canadians often appropriate the American pattern of political behavior on time delay (see: Trudeau's 2015 cribbing of the 2008 Obama playbook) but continued democratic backsliding in America will mean very difficult choices around U.S./Canada relations.

In politics we often talk about the salacious things, the new things, the small things. But this is a very big thing. We can't afford to be numb to it — or distracted by a change in news cycles — and our leaders can't be asleep at the switch.

TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS

— First thing this morning, Statistics Canada will release its labour force survey for December.

— Health Minister JEAN-YVES DUCLOS and Intergovernmental Affairs Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC will hold a news conference at 11. LeBlanc's presence means the topic of the provinces is certain to arise.

— At 12:30, NDP MP CHARLIE ANGUS will hold a presser with Bearskin Lake chief LEFTY KAMENAWATAMIN, Windigo Tribal Council's FRANK MCKAY, and Grand Chief of the Nishnawbe-Aski Nation CHARLES FOX. They'll call on the Liberal government to deliver "urgent help" to the Bearskin Lake community.

ASK US ANYTHING

What are you hearing that you need Playbook to know? Send it all our way.

PROZONE

Pro subscribers should catch our Pro Canada PM Memo by ZI-ANN LUM: Big rig trouble: What vaccine rules mean for trucking

In other headlines for Pros:

— They need to process your Covid tests. Now they're out sick from Omicron.
— Biden talks tough on Putin, but European allies are less ready for a fight.
— West Virginia seeks Biden's OK to give out 4th Covid shots.
— France flexes muscles with fines against Facebook, Google.
— FAA begins assembling list of airports most vulnerable to 5G interference.

MEDIA ROOM

— CINDY BLACKSTOCK is on the Hot Room pod in conversation about this week's Indigenous child-welfare settlement. DAKOTA KOCHIE, former chief of staff of the Assembly of First Nations, shared his thoughts in The Globe.

— ANDREW PEREZ writes an ode to parliamentary secretaries in National Observer. ("While virtually no one beyond the Liberal caucus and senior Ottawa lobbyists were awaiting the announcements with bated breath," he writes. *ahem*)

— Global News reporter DAVID AKIN unearths weekly government polling on Canadians' priorities. tl;dr: The landscape is pretty fluid out there.

— McGill prof and democracy expert TAYLOR OWEN interviews ProPublica reporter CRAIG SILVERMAN, one of the first journalists to popularize the term "fake news" — and a Canadian, to boot!

— In Maclean's, SHANNON PROUDFOOT chronicles the "cruel, ridiculous reality of 'virtual learning' " that had parents everywhere nodding as they read. Join Proudfoot on Maclean's Twitter Space at 3 p.m. ET today where she'll discuss with DENISE BALKISSOON, MATT GURNEY and KWADWO KYEREMANTENG.

PLAYBOOKERS

Gurkiran Kaur Sidhu and Jagmeet Singh show off their baby daughter

Gurkiran Kaur Sidhu and Jagmeet Singh show off their baby daughter. | Photo courtesy of Jagmeet Singh

Arrivals: GURKIRAN KAUR SIDHU gave birth to a baby girl on Monday. Which means her husband JAGMEET SINGH, who celebrated his 43rd birthday the day before, is a dad.

The National Bobblehead Hall of Fame and Museum created a bearded Justin Trudeau bobblehead

Image courtesy of the National Bobblehead Hall of Fame and Museum | The newest likeness of the formerly bearded Justin Trudeau

Spotted: PMJT, officially immortalized in the National Bobblehead Hall of Fame and Museum. The Milwaukee-based mecca of wobbling melons released two versions: one bearded, the other not. For the record: The PMO was not consulted or otherwise made aware of the miniature Trudeaus.

Procurement Minister FILOMENA TASSI , the latest cabmin to test positive for Covid.

Tourism Minister RANDY BOISSONNAULT meeting Ontario counterpart LISA MACLEOD.

The Department of National Defense is looking for suppliers who can take on PCR Covid testing for military personnel. … Canada's High Commission in London is doing a reno on a leased apartment at Hanover House, a 3,277 sq-ft. unit in a typically picturesque part of town. Property records say it's worth over ￡1 million (d'uh).

Movers and shakers: ALISON EVANS has been named CARE Canada's VP of public engagement. … The U.S. consulate in Toronto is hiring a political specialist (details here). … The feds are hiring a C$20,000-a-year honorary consul in Richmond, Virginia. (The world of honorary consuls is occasionally controversial and sometimes fascinating .)

Birthdays: HBD to Sen. RAYMONDE GAGNÉ, Quebec MNA LISE THÉRIAULT and former MP PETER BRAID, now CEO of the Insurance Brokers Association of Canada.

Media mentions: La Presse Canadienne's CATHERINE LEVESQUE is National Post-bound: "This also means I'll be writing in English from now on. (Yikes!) Je vais quand même continuer de tweeter dans les deux langues. :)"

Former CBC EIC JENNIFER MCGUIRE starts a new role as Pink Triangle Press's chief content officer. … STEVEN LOUNG is joining The Canadian Press sports team.

In other CP news: The wire service is partnering with Carleton University to "identify, track and analyze the news organization's choice of interview subjects to gain an accurate picture of the diversity of sources (or lack thereof)."

Farewell: Gender Equality Minister MARCI IEN marked the death of Dr. GLENDA SIMMS, the former president of the Canadian Advisory Council on the Status of Women: "A champion, trailblazer and strong advocate for women's rights."

TRIVIA

Thursday's answer: BARBARA HANLEY was elected mayor of Webbwood, Ont. on Jan. 6, 1936. She served for eight terms. Many of you guessed CHARLOTTE WHITTON. She became mayor of Ottawa in 1951.

Props to ANNE CARROLL, DOROTHY MCCABE, SHEILA GERVAIS, BRAM ABRAMSON, LEIGH LAMPERT, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, ALAN KAN, GEORGE YOUNG, JOHN ECKER, BOB GORDON and ROB BOSTELAAR.

Friday's question: In another first for women in Canada, what happened on this date in 2000?

Send your answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

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