CORPORATIONS FACING A NEW SET OF SANCTION RISKS: One tool in the anti-corruption kit is sanctions. Daniel Tannebaum , a partner at Oliver Wyman, leading the firm's financial crimes work, explained to Global Insider the new sanction landscape for firms. Managing sanctions risk is no longer limited to responding to enforcement actions, but looking ahead to where sanctions may be applied and either lobbying against those sanctions or reducing risk in the affected markets ahead of sanctions. Biggest risk for companies — conflicting laws: "Twenty years ago sanctions didn't really apply to countries that were as impactful to global commerce, as you see with China and Russia over the last seven or eight years. Multinational companies have to manage the conflict of law that exists if you're operating in multiple jurisdictions," Tannebaum said. Often today "it's about choosing between the Chinese and the American market" — the Uyghur Forced Labor Protection Act, which takes effect in June, will be the next big moment of choice. "The burden of proof is on the importer to prove that forced labor is not involved in their goods," he said. Secondary sanctions threat: "The U.S. is trying to reevaluate how it uses sanctions going forward. For years, the threat of secondary sanctions (sanctions against non-U.S. people and entities who choose to trade with those sanctioned by the U.S.) were out there, but hardly ever imposed. And so how impactful is that threat, if you don't actually make good on paper?" Tannebaum said. The rise of coordinated sanctions: "There's fairly broad alignment on a number of issues" across Western democracies, including on Russia, Hong Kong and Uyghur rights. "If you're a multinational, how do you really begin to read the tea leaves of where some of these issues may ultimately go? … It's really kind of looking at the governance around that risk management. That's where a lot of people end up focusing their efforts." Where to watch for lobbying activity: It's often hard to lobby against sanctions — especially if the target is universally regarded as a bad actor (think North Korea), but "export control of certain technology goods out of the U.S. into higher risk countries" has been the subject of "a pretty heavy lobbying focus." U.S., EU SLAP NEW SANCTIONS ON NICARAGUAN OFFICIALS: The move was timed to coincide with the inauguration of President Daniel Ortega. ADMINISTRATION LOBBIES CONGRESS AGAINST NORD STREAM SANCTIONS: Democrats are poised later this week to reject Sen. Ted Cruz's (R-Texas) sanctions bill aimed at crippling the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which is in the final stages of approval and will send cheap natural gas from Russia to Germany. The U.S. is starting to get what it wants without the sanctions: The new German government is keeping the Nord Stream pipeline offline for now. "Why would you sanction Germany when they just switched their position to the one we've asked them to undertake?" said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.). Inescapable politics: Some Democrats also say — why hand Cruz a win? "I'm a big supporter of President Zelensky. But often he misreads American politics," Murphy said. That leaves one possible outcome that Germany uses pipeline approval as the leverage for getting Putin away from the Ukraine border (a win!). But if Ukraine tensions can be defused, maybe Putin gets his pipeline (a loss!). Kadri Liik , Russia specialist at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told Global Insider: "I think the U.S. administration does not want to alienate Germany," adding "having Germany on board is much more important than anything related to Nord Stream." 2021 SANCTIONS IN 12 CHARTS: Human rights offenders were the biggest sanctions targets in 2021. The U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control — America's sanctions authority — added 176 people to its Global Magnitsky sanctions list, accounting for around one-third of the 518 sanctioned individuals. Myanmar was the country with the most targets: 65 sanctioned individuals. h/t Spencer Vuksic RUSSIA TALKS $200 million in defense assistance transferred to Ukraine in December, per CNN. The United States will send a radar system and some maritime equipment, though it's unclear when the first deliveries will be made, Ukrainian officials told POLITICO. Women from the Iran nuclear deal are critical players in this week's talks: Wendy Sherman led the U.S. side in Geneva, and as talks move onto Vienna on Thursday, Helga Schmid, the top official at the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, will rise in prominence. OSCE is hosting the Vienna talks as part of a Jan. 13 OSCE Permanent Council meeting. FOOD FOR THOUGHT Russia Thinks America Is Bluffing: That's the view of the Fletcher School's Chris Miller. Planned sanctions and other economic counter-measures (if Putin further invades Ukraine) have not hurt Russia's stock market or currency, with Russians betting that blocking agriculture or energy exports, or cutting off Russian banks from global markets, would also hurt the West. How to Get What We Want From Putin, by Thomas Graham and Rajan Menon Recalling the Putin of two decades ago: Jim Laurie dives into his archives and memory vault. BY THE NUMBERS: The Biden administration spelled out its European ally engagements this week, perhaps stung by criticism that Russia talks started in Geneva without Ukraine and European allies in the room. The outreach has included 16 calls between President Biden and European leaders; around 25 calls and meetings by Secretary of State Antony Blinken; ministerial meetings among the G-7, NATO and the OSCE; eight meetings between Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and his counterparts; and at least 10 other calls with Ukranian leaders. WEF'S 2022 GLOBAL RISKS REPORT — MENTAL HEALTH ALARM: While the top long-term risks relate to climate, shorter-term global concerns include societal divides, livelihood crises and mental health deterioration . Naturally, WEF's answers include the view that "global leaders must adopt a coordinated multi stakeholder response" Other featured "areas of emerging risk" are: cybersecurity; competition in space; a disorderly climate transition; and migration pressures. LOSING LATIN AMERICA: Brazil is poised to lose majority-Catholic status , part of a wave of setbacks for the Vatican in the region that delivered a pope, but also lost social battles around marriage equality and other issues. UNITED STATES — BIDEN GETS COLD SHOULDER FROM BLACK LEADERS: High-profile voting rights leaders skipped President Joe Biden 's voting rights speech in Atlanta Tuesday, dismissing the address as too little too late. Where have you been? LaTosha Brown, a co-founder of Black Votes Matter and one of the organizers who turned Georgia blue in 2020, decided she didn't want Biden in the state. Stacey Abrams , who Biden once mooted as his presidential running mate, wasn't there either, citing a scheduling conflict. Martin Luther King Jr.'s family did participate but called it a difficult decision to attend the speech. Biden said Republicans need to choose between supporting voting rights legislation or lose rights to block debates under current Senate filibuster rules. Biden doesn't yet have the votes to change either voting rules or Senate rules. Your guide to the filibuster changes Dems really want. BY THE NUMBERS — CHINA'S COVID LOCKDOWNS GROW TO 20 MILLION: A third Chinese city (Anyang, population 5.5 million) has locked down its residents because of a Covid-19 outbreak. Residents are not allowed to go out except to stores selling necessities. Around 13 million people have been locked down in Xi'an for nearly three weeks, and a million more in Yuzhou. | 
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