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Feb 07, 2022 View in browser
 
POLITICO Global Insider

By Ryan Heath

Send tips and thoughts to rheath@politico.com.

Check out the weekly Global Insider podcast. | Follow Ryan on Twitter.

Happening Today

"Berlin, we have a problem": German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet U.S. President Joe Biden in Washington today, their first meeting since Scholz took over from Angela Merkel. Biden's goal: figure out whether Berlin is a reliable security ally.

Manu a mano: French President Emmanuel Macron is in Moscow meeting with Vladimir Putin, his third exchange with the Russian president in 10 days. Macron's goal: establish himself as the leader of Europe and deliver a practical outcome for democracy. Macron continues to play good cop, striking an accommodating line with the Kremlin, while insisting he's coordinating with Washington.

Macron will also meet Tuesday with Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in Kyiv. The Elysée Palace has form: In 2008, Nicolas Sarkozy intervened as an intermediary in the conflict between Russia and Georgia.

The EU's chief diplomat, Josep Borrell, is in Washington, D.C., for two days of Ukraine and energy strategy meetings: He will meet his counterpart Antony Blinken and attend the 9th U.S.-EU Energy Council — which is meeting for the first time after a four-year break.

Beijing's Olympic diplomacy: President Xi Jinping's latest bilateral meetings were with Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan and Argentine President Alberto Fernández. Ecuadorian President Guillermo Lasso gives the impression of being in town to cheer his country's sole Winter Olympics athlete, but it's actually about begging for a restructure of $4 billion in debt owed to Beijing.

Chinese tennis star Peng Shuai broke her silence with independent media via an interview with L'Equipe: but officials hovered and her backtracking raises as many questions as it does answers.

JOIN GLOBAL INSIDER THIS WEEK: Too much too fast? Too little too slow? What do citizens around the world really think about how governments and business are dealing with climate change and sustainability? Join me on Thursday, Feb. 10, at 12:45 p.m. ET for conversations on a new POLITICO/Morning Consult Global Sustainability Poll. Plus, White House National Climate Advisor Gina McCarthy will be interviewed by Laura Barrón-López. RSVP here to watch live.

 

HAPPENING THURSDAY – A LONG GAME CONVERSATION ON THE CLIMATE CRISIS : Join POLITICO for back-to-back conversations on climate and sustainability action, starting with a panel led by Global Insider author Ryan Heath focused on insights gleaned from our POLITICO/Morning Consult Global Sustainability Poll of citizens from 13 countries on five continents about how their governments should respond to climate change. Following the panel, join a discussion with POLITICO White House Correspondent Laura Barrón-López and Gina McCarthy, White House national climate advisor, about the Biden administration's climate and sustainability agenda. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS

CLIMATE CORNER

CARBON PLEDGES OF WORLD'S BIGGEST COMPANIES ARE BOGUS, PER WATCHDOG: Despite pledges of "net zero," the world's biggest companies will only reduce their carbon emissions by an average of 40 percent, according to a new Corporate Climate Responsibility Monitor.

The report was conducted by NewClimate Institute and Carbon Market Watch . Only one company's net-zero pledge was evaluated as having "reasonable integrity;" three scored "moderate integrity" and ten racked up a rating of "low integrity." The remaining 12 companies were rated as having "very low" integrity because they failed to publish any specific emission reduction plan, the authors said.

The companies taking the biggest "very low integrity" hit: Accenture, BMW Group, Carrefour, CVS Health, Deutsche Post DHL, E.ON, JBS, Nestlé, Novartis, Saint-Gobain and Unilever.

Are you running sustainability at one of these companies? Make the case that you're doing more than the report says to rheath@politico.com .

ARCTIC IS THE FASTEST WARMING ZONE ON THE PLANET: A collection of four Danish government research institutions has published new satellite data which suggests Greenland has lost more than 5,100 billion tons (4,700 billion metric tons) of ice in the past 20 years — enough to flood the entire United States in 1.6 feet of meltwater. This extensive ice loss has contributed to half an inch of global sea-level rise.

AVOIDABLE METHANE LEAKS MUCH BIGGER THAN EXPECTED: More satellite sleuthing finds that oil and gas companies are routinely venting huge amounts of methane into the air and that it's avoidable. "It's doable. Absolutely," said Thomas Lauvaux, a researcher with the Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Sciences in France. The European Space Agency launched an instrument three years ago called the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument that can measure the methane in any 12-square-mile block of the atmosphere, day by day. During 2019 and 2020, the researchers counted more than 1,800 large bursts of methane, often several tons of methane release per hour. Lauvaux and his colleagues published their findings this week in the journal Science.

TRENDING: Climate Change Enters the Therapy Room

CANADA — OTTAWA REMAINS UNDER SIEGE: Canada's "Freedom Convoy" has become a global far-right sensation. Protesters may be occupying the downtown of the Canadian capital, but they're also a test bed for a growing global protest movement. But freedom for whom? That's the real question at the heart of the protests. So far, Ottawa's demonstration is mostly peaceful but that's not to say it isn't hugely disruptive or dangerous: It has forced the closure of several vaccination sites.

The local problem: "The situation at this point is completely out of control," Ottawa Mayor Jim Watson said Sunday, saying that city officials are "outnumbered" and "losing the battle" against the truckers' protest that has laid siege to the city for more than a week. Watson declared a state of emergency. Ottawa's police chief, Peter Sloly, concurred that his force does not have the resources it needs to handle the occupation as it heads into its tenth day.

The global effect: This isn't about the Canadian truckers who started the protest anymore. It's now a rallying cry for the far-right globally. POLITICO's Mark Scott details how the protests when viral. And the protests are proof that even in countries known for their good governance and mild manners, the ability of governments to impose severe restrictions is waning. Australia is the latest domino to give up its restrictions, reopening the country to vaccinated tourists later this month.

Scenes from the occupation: It's a mix of messages that range from "media is the virus" and "Fuck Trudeau," to BBQs and inflatable bouncy castles for the kids, POLITICO's Andy Blatchford writes.

COSTA RICA — CENTRISTS HEAD TO PRESIDENTIAL RUN-OFF: Former President José María Figueres (27 percent) and former Finance Minister Rodrigo Chaves (17 percent) will face off in the second round of voting April 3.

ARGENTINA — NEW DEAL WITH IMF, BUT POLITICAL BACKLASH AT HOME: Argentina and the International Monetary Fund on Friday said they had reached an understanding about a new $44.5 billion debt deal.

IRAN — U.S. SANCTIONS RELIEF WELCOMED, BUT SAYS 'NOT ENOUGH'

UKRAINE CORNER

As a week of another series of high-end diplomatic meetings looms, where do we stand in this crisis, and what are the options for moving forward?

States of play 

— Russian troop build-up: Roughly 70 percent of the forces Russia needs for a full-scale invasion are already in place, according to Biden administration officials. There are now 83 Russian battalion tactical groups massed near the Ukrainian border: That alone is more than 60,000 troops. Some western officials estimate the total troop presence at 130,000.

— Weapons supply: an "air bridge" of cargo planes, operated by several NATO allies, has been delivering materiel and weapons into Kyiv since Jan. 22.

— Ordinary people movements: If Moscow launches a full-scale invasion, between 1 million and 5 million Ukrainians may flee into the EU, the majority likely to enter via Poland.

Opinion — Is Ukraine the next Austria , and would setting Ukraine on the path to neutrality be a bad thing? Austria is rich, an EU member and not part of NATO. "The beautiful Austrian model actually worked quite well for us," the country's ambassador to the U.S. Martin Weiss told Global Insider.

Russian bullying is having the opposite effect in Finland: It's driving support for the country to join NATO and abandon its military neutrality.

How the Biden administration turned intel success into a media mess: POLITICO's Alex Ward on why the administration would be better off showing its homework rather than lecturing journalists who ask tough questions. "If you doubt the credibility of the U.S. government … and want to find solace in information that the Russians are putting out, that's for you to do," State Department spokesperson Ned Price responded at the end of a testy five-minute exchange with AP's Matt Lee.

There's no escaping that at a time when trust in government is historically low, "trust us" doesn't work like it used to. The New York Times' Charlie Savage offers a bunch of examples why "trust us" isn't enough of a reason to trust a government , even a friendly one. "The early official narrative about big national security events is often wrong," he writes.

DON'T YOU KNOW THERE'S A (PHONY) WAR ON? Should any armed conflict lead to large movements of people, it could put the EU's complex rulebook for managing pandemic travel to the test. Would refugees fleeing Russian tanks be required to show adequate proof of immunity in the form of a digital COVID certificate?

Ukraine law enforcement authorities have uncovered a series of underground operations to forge vaccination and test certificates, and say that they have "dismantled" more than 100 such groups . Around 2,300 investigations into suspected forgery rackets have been opened, according to the Health Ministry, and more than 80 forged certificates were confiscated from travelers at Kyiv's Boryspil airport between December and late January. The most notorious incident happened in September, when around 200 pilgrims from Israel visited Ukraine to celebrate the Jewish New Year, and presented forged negative test certificates to the Israeli border authorities on their return. Many were infected with coronavirus.

Going cheap: Adverts on social media offer forged certificates, with an individual's personal data being entered into the government's electronic database with the assistance of registered medics, at prices starting from around $100. A simple counterfeit — without data entry — costs significantly less.

 

DON'T MISS CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO's new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE.

 
 
GLOBETROTTERS

ELEVATED: Camilla will be Queen (one day). Queen Elizabeth II has reigned for 70 years, achieving her Platinum Jubilee on Feb. 6, an occasion she used to elevate Charles' second wife.

NOMINATED: President Biden has nominated another three ambassadors for Senate confirmation. Reuben Brigety to the Republic of South Africa; MaryKay Carlson to the Philippines; and Elizabeth Shortino as executive director of the International Monetary Fund.

BEZOS' BOAT EGGED: A century-old bridge in the Netherlands may have to be dismantled for the $500 million yacht to be able to make it to the ocean, so there's a predictable backlash, including a protest encouraging attendees to throw eggs at the vessel.

BRAIN FOOD 

SHORT READ: A childhood in Communist Albania: There was no place more adamantly Stalinist than Albania. Book, by Lea Ypi. Reviewed, by Tunku Varadarajan.

LONG READ: The Common Tongue of modern London: Multicultural London English, by Rebecca Mead.

BOOK: The Subversive Simone Weil: A Life in Five Ideas . Book, by Robert Zaretsky. Reviewed, by Jacqueline Rose.

Thanks to editor Ben Pauker and Hannah Farrow

 

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Ryan Heath @PoliticoRyan

 

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