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Feb 10, 2022 View in browser
 
Ottawa Playbook

By Sue Allan and Zi-Ann Lum


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Welcome to the Ottawa Playbook. We have the latest on the convoys — plural. We've asked experts to weigh in on the talking point of the day: just how divided are we, really? Plus, we have House highlights, tenders and trivia.

DRIVING THE DAY

We start with three stories from POLITICO's rolling coverage:

— ANDY BLATCHFORD has the latest on the standstill at the Ambassador Bridge where Windsor Mayor DREW DILKENS has sent up a flare.

— MARK SCOTT has the skinny on the People's Convoy — starting in California before rolling eastward. It's expected to get underway March 4 amid a growing clamor from those who believe their freedoms are under threat from government Covid-19 restrictions. Get ready, Washington, D.C.

— JUSTIN LING brings us the story of a couple of truckers who shared pizza and a photo op with Conservatives MARILYN GLADU and CANDICE BERGEN in the very early days of the occupation of Ottawa. "Part of the reason why this occupation is convinced they're broadly popular is because they're being used by politicians for their own ambition," he writes.

In reporting on the dinner, Ling gets a glimpse into the conspiratorial mindset of the occupiers. "These two protesters are representative of the rank and file," he says. "Both are emblematic of an intense anti-government and anti-vaccine ideology that ran through the convoy and ensuing occupation, which some Conservatives cheered on."

Ling's feature is here: The problem with Ottawa's protesters.

AROUND THE HILL

SECRET WORD OF THE DAY — There is no doubt JOËL LIGHTBOUND will inspire Conservative talking points from now until forever.

"We've never been so divided," the Liberal MP told reporters during a presser he convened Tuesday to outline his case against his government's pandemic policies.

Interim Conservative leader CANDICE BERGEN said the very same thing just the night before. "Whether it is regional lines, whether it is ethnic lines, or whether it is people's health care choices, this country is more divided than ever," she told the House during the emergency debate on the Covid-19 protests.

Our stenography from Wednesday in the House:

— MARK STRAHL: "It is time to heal the divisions intentionally sown. It is time to unite Canadians, give them back their freedoms."

— RACHAEL THOMAS: "We need to come together as a nation and heal."

— PIERRE POILIEVRE: "Let's bring back freedom.… Let's make Canadians the authors of their own stories again."

Back to BERGEN: "We live in a beautiful country, but our country is suffering, our country is divided, our country is tired, and Canadians need leadership."

HALLWAY CONVERSATION — To make sense of this debate, we called up some experts for a reality check.  

Playbook: There is lots of talk lately that suggests Canada has never been more divided. What is your sense of it, based on your work?

DAVID COLETTO, CEO of Abacus Data: There's no doubt much of what is going on in Canada and around the world is dividing us. But I don't believe we are more divided than we have ever been.

In the early 1990s, the country was torn apart debating the Constitution, which led to the Bloc Québécois forming the official opposition and a western-based protest party becoming the third party, leaving two mainstream parties (the NDP and PCs) without official party status after the 1993 election. This tumultuous time ultimately led to the 1995 Quebec referendum which almost actually divided the country.

What is happening, from the data I'm seeing, is that people are worried about the future. There isn't a lot of hope that anyone has a good answer for how to solve the problems we perceive to exist. The result is more partisanship and even tribalism as we collectively make sense of it all. But this environment isn't new and isn't unique, in my opinion.

SHACHI KURL, president of the Angus Reid Institute: When people (okay, politicians) say, "Canadians have never been more divided," or "Canadians are united," we need to clarify what exactly they're referring to, because, well, they like to cherry pick.

First, yes, Canadians have been united in rolling up their sleeves and getting jabbed against Covid-19. Eighty percent of the population has had two shots. We've set the example for much of the world about leaning in on vaccines. There also appears to be some consensus — or at least a strong majority view over how Canadians view the behavior of the Ottawa protestors. (Hint, not warmly.)

But there are also divisions. Just over half the country (54 percent) told us at the Angus Reid Institute they're ready to see pandemic restrictions end — an increase of 15 points since early January. The "why" can be attributed to inevitability and resignation — that they can no longer outrun the virus no matter the precautions they take. There is a perception that if they get sick, the illness, while unpleasant, will not be severe. And they're fatigued: Canadians report increasingly fragile mental health.

Divisions also exist over the perceptions of how much — if at all — Ottawa is listening. We recently asked whether the federal government pays attention to the issues they care about. Most say "no" — but the cleavages along political lines are breathtakingly stark. The country is clearly divided on the question of whether Canada's system of government is "good" — 45 percent say no, 42 percent say yes. And almost two-in-five say there is "no room" for political compromise in Canada today.

We may not be as divided as ever, but we are a long, long way from the brief period of early-pandemic unity that brought the country together two years ago.

J.D.M. STEWART, history teacher and author of Being Prime Minister: The idea that Canada has never been more divided is simply uninformed political rhetoric designed for a soundbite or fundraising letter.

Those who know their history are aware that toward the end of the First World War a conscription crisis (mandatory military enlistment) cleaved this great Dominion apart. The issue would end up being fought over in the 1917 federal election which historian ROBERT CRAIG BROWN called "the bitterest, most divisive exercise of the democratic process in Canadian history."

Prime Minister ROBERT BORDEN himself noted that "no more severe a trial of the self-endurance of democracy was ever made." In 1918, there were riots in Quebec City opposing conscription. Four people were killed. A war in which 60,000 Canadians were killed was wearing down the nation, from farmers to laborers to families — all who suffered immeasurably.

So, no, this is not anywhere close to being the most divided this country has ever been. There was also that period in the early 1990s that some may recall as quite divisive as well, but that is a story for another day.

TRUST, FALLS — Trust in government has fallen to an "all-time low," according to Proof Strategies' annual CanTrust Index . The survey of 1,536 Canadians in the beginning of January found Canadians' confidence in the government slide 10 points during the past year to a new 22-percent low.

 — Most reliable sources of information: Medical doctors top Proof's trust index with 78 percent of respondents, followed by scientists with 75 percent, then educators with 63 percent, journalists with 44 percent ( yay?) and politicians bottoming out the survey with 18 percent.

— Looking at unity : The survey suggests more than a third of Canadians (37 percent) feel "less together and united," up 11 points since last year's trust index.

CARBON COPY — Conservatives have done a full 360 on the carbon tax and will drop support of it as a party policy, reports the Star's STEPHANIE LEVITZ. The shift isn't surprising to anyone tracking the forces behind the ouster of ERIN O'TOOLE.

The now ex-Conservative leader introduced a climate plan last year that included a carbon price system in the form of a customer loyalty program. It ran directly against party policy.

— From the CPC policy book : "The provinces and territories should be free to develop their own climate change policies, without federal interference or federal penalties or incentives."

While support for a carbon tax is off the table in this new iteration of the Conservatives, the party's sharpest minds will have to put their heads together to propose alternative policy tools to address climate change concerns — and mitigate potential international trade implications of a dismantled federal system.

According to a recent POLITICO Morning Consult Global Sustainability Poll, more than half of Conservatives report at least some concern about the impacts of climate change, while 1 in 5 CPC supporters said they're not fazed about the issue "at all."

SOME HONORABLE MEMBERS — The Post's CATHERINE LÉVESQUE caught a peek at House Leader MARK HOLLAND's scouting report on the new leadership team around interim CPC leader CANDICE BERGEN. In notes Holland was toting to caucus Wednesday, Conservative House leader JOHN BRASSARD was depicted as "the epitome of the angry Conservative male." Lévesque has details on the others here.

— Oh, oh: In a Twitter exchange with The Star's ALTHIA RAJ, Brassard said: "They shouldn't mistake being passionate, having pride in, and wanting what's best for our Country as anger. I really am a softie. I cry at the end of Uncle Buck, the Sound of Music, and those Harlequin Christmas movies. Doggie videos get me too! What can I say?"

TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS

The prime minister's agenda says that but for QP, he'll be in private meetings.

Ditto for Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND.

ASK US ANYTHING

What are you hearing that you need Playbook to know? Send it all our way.

PAPER TRAIL

FROM THE TENDERS — A string of tenders expired Wednesday with no interested suppliers for a national defence department request for a contractor "to provide up to 61 single and double occupancy rooms in the Borrego Springs, California area during the 6 March - 10 April 2022 timeframe" … and no bidders for a Canadian Armed Forces hotel request in Key West Florida for "between one hundred (100) and one hundred and ten (110) rooms total for training planned for the period of February 28 to March 15, 2022" …

Natural Resources Canada is also plum out of luck with no interested bidder for a "study on the supply, demand, and cost of hydrogen derived from natural gas."

PROZONE


For subscribers, here's our Pro Canada PM memo: Everyone is talking about supply chains.

In other headlines for Pros:
— Climate change will be expensive. Who should pay?
— U.N. postpones space diplomacy talks after Russia asks for more time.
— Ukraine crisis ups pressure to launch new cyber bureau.
— Ambassador Bridge blockade has both sides on edge.
— Gov't commission: Synthetic drug trafficking a 'national security' emergency.

MEDIA ROOM

— ABBAS RANA has the story of Liberal MP YVES ROBILLARD, who told The Hill Times: "I agree with everything that Lightbound said."

— Liberal MP ANTHONY HOUSEFATHER and Conservative MP MELISSA LANTSMAN joined CPC MP and podcast host GARNETT GENUIS to discuss the trucker convoy.

— "The notion that there's something in the Canadian disposition that makes us less susceptible than the Americans were to Donald Trump (or the Brits to Brexit, or the French to their far-right presidential contenders) has never been all that convincing," JOHN GEDDES writes at Maclean's.

— The Backbench pod considers the long-term effects of the Ottawa occupation.

— The Citizen's LIZ PAYNE and BLAIR CRAWFORD talked to truckers in Ottawa who joined the convoy with their kids in tow."They call it glamping," one B.C. father said of his kids' take on the Ottawa road trip.

THE BUZZ

Birthdays: HBD to former GG ADRIENNE CLARKSON, former Supreme Court justice LOUISE ARBOUR, former Sen. IRVING GERSTEIN and Nova Scotia MLA PAT DUNN.

Spotted: Governor General MARY SIMON, self-isolating with mild symptoms of Covid-19.Her husband, WHIT FRASER, is also down for the count.

The New York Times correcting its A1 photo error misidentifying a picture of Toronto as Ottawa.

Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY and her large teleprompter … Tory MP ANDREW SCHEER giving a thumbs up to Parliament Hill convoyers … Sen. DENISE BATTERS back as a member of the federal Conservative caucus … Toronto Raptors playing homage to JEAN AUGUSTINE.

Movers and shakers: DAVID YAZBECK steps into a new role as PIPSC's director of national labor relations.

Media mentions: SARAH FULFORD will take the helm of Maclean's … LIZ SULLIVAN, long-time director of photography in that newsroom announced Wednesday that she is joining the visuals team at The Globe. … ZEELAF MAJEED announced that she's returning to the CBC as managing editor of network radio current affairs.

HOUSE BUSINESS

11 a.m. House of Commons Clerk CHARLES ROBERT is a witness at the committee on procedure and House affairs as part of its review of the Conflict of Interest Code for Members of Parliament

11 a.m. Deputy Health Minister STEPHEN LUCAS is set to appear at the House public accounts committee to answer questions about the auditor general's report from last year, "Securing Personal Protective Equipment and Medical Devices."

11:30 a.m. Sen. COLIN DEACON is on the witness list at the internal economy, budgets and administration meeting. The agenda cites his appearance to be related to "Pursuant to rule 12-7(1), consideration of financial and administrative matters."

3:30 p.m. DisinfoWatch's MARCUS KOLGA and Ukrainian Canadian Congress' IHOR MICHALCHYSHYN will speak to MPs on the House foreign affairs and international development committee as it reviews the situation at the Russia-Ukraine border.

3:30 p.m. World-leading privacy expert ANN CAVOUKIAN is a witness at the House access to information, privacy and ethics committee today in relation to its study on the federal government's collection and use of mobile data.

4:30 p.m. Families, Children and Social Development Minister KARINA GOULD drops in at the House human resources committee to brief MPs on her mandate letter.

Keep track of House committee scheduling here.

TRIVIA

Wednesday's answer: "Yours to Discover" replaced "A Place to Grow" on Ontario license plates.

Everyone knew the answer.

MP YASIR NAQVI added: "For a bonus point, before that it was "Keep it Beautiful."

Props to ANNA KISIELEWSKA, BARRY STRADER, PATRICK DION, GARY COLLINS, BARRE CAMPBELL, GANGA WIGNARAJAH, ROB BOSTELAAR, PAUL GILLETT, PIERRE JURY, LEIGH LAMPERT, ANTHONY IMBROGNO, GUY SKIPWORTH, TARAN WASSON, LAURA JARVIS (You're welcome!), JOANNA PLATER, GWENDOLYN MONCRIEFF-GOULD, ETHEL FORESTER, JAYNE YOUNG, ELIZABETH BURN, WALTER ROBINSON, HUGH BENEVIDES, STEPHEN KAROL, DOROTHY MCCABE, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, JOHN GUOBA, TIM MCCALLUM, ANDREW SZENDE, GEORGE YOUNG, KEVIN COLBOURNE, DAVID MCLENNAN, TREVOR RODIE, JOHN ECKER, GARY ALLEN, BOB GORDON, ROSS LECLAIR and ALAN KAN. 

Thursday's question: Which hockey legend turned down an offer to become Canada's Governor General? Bonus points if you can name the prime minister who extended the invitation.

Send your answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

 

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Sue Allan @susan_allan

Andy Blatchford @AndyBlatchford

Maura Forrest @MauraForrest

Zi-Ann Lum @ziannlum

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