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Failed and on fire: New poll details citizen anger at climate change responses

A newsletter from POLITICO that unpacks essential global news, trends, and decisions.
Feb 09, 2022 View in browser
 
POLITICO Global Insider

By Ryan Heath

Send tips and thoughts to rheath@politico.com.

Check out the weekly Global Insider podcast. | Follow Ryan on Twitter.

Happening Today

CENTRAL BANK DAY: There are central bank board meetings taking place in India, Thailand and Romania, which will give a perspective on interest rate and inflation trajectories globally.

JOIN GLOBAL INSIDER THIS WEEK Too much too fast? Too little too slow? What do citizens around the world really think about how governments and businesses are dealing with climate change and sustainability? Join me on Thursday at 12:45 p.m. ET for conversations on a new POLITICO/Morning Consult Global Sustainability Poll. Plus, White House National Climate Adviser Gina McCarthy will be interviewed by Laura Barrón-López. RSVP here to watch live.

Register to watch the Denver Democracy Summit running Thursday-Friday. Global Insider will interview leading democracy advocates, including Nobel Peace Prize winner and journalist Maria Ressa, and Reps. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) and Jason Crow (D-Colo.). Register.

 

HAPPENING THURSDAY – A LONG GAME CONVERSATION ON THE CLIMATE CRISIS : Join POLITICO for back-to-back conversations on climate and sustainability action, starting with a panel led by Global Insider author Ryan Heath focused on insights gleaned from our POLITICO/Morning Consult Global Sustainability Poll of citizens from 13 countries on five continents about how their governments should respond to climate change. Following the panel, join a discussion with POLITICO White House Correspondent Laura Barrón-López and Gina McCarthy, White House national climate advisor, about the Biden administration's climate and sustainability agenda. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS

NEW GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY POLL SLAMS LEADERS AROUND THE WORLD

A new POLITICO/Morning Consult Global Sustainability Poll found that a majority of respondents in 13 countries, regardless of political affiliation or political system, think climate change is getting worse and that government and corporate leaders are not doing enough to deal with climate impacts.

The poll asked respondents about the trade-offs they were willing, or unwilling, to make in order to achieve better climate outcomes, and who they trust to take climate action, other than themselves.

Trouble brewing in Biden's base: Surprisingly, climate may be the only issue where President Joe Biden is getting higher marks from the right than from the left. Not because those voters are concerned that Biden should do more, but because they're satisfied that he is constrained. Biden's base, on the other hand, is furious: 80 percent of Americans who labeled themselves left-wing said that the Biden administration is doing too little to arrest climate change.

The U.S. is home to the world's biggest ideological climate divide: 97 percent of left-leaning American adults expressed concern about climate change, compared to 51 percent of right-leaning adults. Canada is also home to significant climate skepticism: 1 in 5 Canadian Conservatives say they are not concerned "at all" about climate change. In other countries, including Mexico and South Africa, there's no statistically significant divide: Adults from all parts of the political spectrum have roughly the same levels of concern.

World to China: Pay your own way. By a ratio of 7 to 1, respondents outside of China said that China needs to follow the same climate action timeline as richer countries. An average of 72 percent agreed with that sentiment, compared to an average of just 10 percent disagreeing. Among some demographics, including Australian high-income earners and Canadians aged 65 or older, three percent or fewer think China deserves flexibility to catch up with the West. Full story here.

One reason for that global consensus: Large majorities in each country surveyed (other than China) believe that China is no longer a "poor" country — ranging from 57 percent in Japan to 80 percent in South Africa. But that puts political leaders and their populations at odds with how to handle the rise of Chinese carbon emissions; climate negotiators have settled for developing countries moving on a slower path to net-zero emissions.

Climate action (and inaction) is expensive: Who will pay? POLITICO's Lorraine Woellert dives into why 12 out of 13 countries singled out companies — rather than governments, taxpayers, consumers, other countries or the private sector — as having a primary responsibility to act. India was the exception.

Fossil fuel companies face the most skeptical consumers, including 90 percent of Russian adults who agreed that fossil fuel companies should "definitely" or "probably" be held responsible for the impacts their products have on the environment.

Passengers balk at paying more for greener flights: 1 in 2 German adults says they're willing to cut back, but only 29 percent of American adults is willing to join them.

Invest in green, rather than ban brown activities: Environmentally friendly infrastructure is the most popular immediate climate investment in all 13 countries surveyed, well ahead of banning coal and gasoline-powered cars. There is no little consensus on whether or how quickly to ban some of the biggest sources of carbon emissions. India is keenest to ban gasoline-powered vehicles — with 50 percent supporting a ban by 2030 — but 41 percent of Americans surveyed said gasoline-powered vehicles should never be banned. There is relatively little global support to ban these vehicles before 2040.

NEW PODCAST EPISODE

Play audio

220209-GlobalInsider-podcast

Global Insider spoke to Jason McMann, head of geopolitical risk analysis for Morning Consult, the specialist behind the global sustainability poll, for insights into why populations across the board are so frustrated with the climate leadership in their country.

Play audio

220209-GlobalInsider-podcast

Levels of climate concern ranges from high to higher: "The lowest level of concern was in Russia, where we saw that 67 percent of respondents were at least somewhat concerned. In Brazil, 87 percent of respondents are at least somewhat concerned, rising to a whopping 89 percent in India."

What do people worry about most when it comes to climate change? "If you look at Mexico or South Africa, for example, they worry about drought, whereas if you look across the other countries in the survey the main concern tends to be things like forest fires."

Democrats and other left-wing voters are deeply critical of Biden: "A whopping 91 percent (are at least somewhat concerned), whereas it's only 45 percent for Republicans. The broader political polarization that we see in the United States has really filtered through the questions surrounding climate change. In Europe, there's less of a gap in terms of how people who put themselves on the left and the right think about climate change."

Consumers want companies to do more, but aren't keen to credit their efforts: "When you ask people who they think should be taking action to do things, as opposed to who has the power to do so, they really want companies to step up to the plate and do a bit more. Consumers say, 'We don't want these initiatives to be funded through (personal) taxes, and we don't want to pay for them in the form of rising costs for consumer goods.' And so I think for companies, it puts them in a tough spot."

CLIMATE — GOOGLE PUSHES BACK AGAINST CARBON CRITICISM: A Brussels-based Google spokesperson didn't mince words in replying to a recent report by NewClimate Institute and Carbon Market Watch that questioned the company's climate efforts, and which was featured in Monday's newsletter.

The spokesperson shared a range of statistics and reports with Global Insider, including the company's assessment that two-thirds of the energy powering its operations is already produced without emitting any carbon. The spokesperson said: "Had the authors of the report reached out we would've been able to point them to this public information" and that the company "clearly defines the scope of our climate commitments and regularly reports on our progress in our annual Environmental Report, where our energy and greenhouse gas emissions data is assured by Ernst & Young. Our new goal is to achieve net-zero emissions across all of our operations and value chain by 2030."

CANADA — OTTAWA OCCUPATION LATEST: Andy Blatchford distills the scene for POLITICO Dispatch.

On the ground: There were 22 arrests Tuesday, bringing to 79 the number of active criminal investigations. Children are living in approximately 100 of the 419 trucks "encamped" in the city: Police say their risks include excessive noise, carbon monoxide from truck fumes, poor sanitation and risks from excessive cold.

At the border: In related news Tuesday , there's a shut down at the busiest U.S.-Canada border crossing.

Plans for a trucker protest in the U.S. gain momentum. On March 5, a convoy will head out from California toward Washington, D.C.

Brussels braces for its turn on Feb. 14, when an EU-wide protest will descend on the bloc's de facto capital.

IRAN — HIGH-LEVEL NUCLEAR TALKS RESUME IN VIENNA: Talks are officially back on , but we're still driving around in circles. The message from U.S. officials to journalists is that one way or another, a resolution to these never-ending talks (in which the U.S. is not directly participating), is needed in February. Members of Congress from both parties insist they have the right to approve any changes to the deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

UKRAINE CORNER

EU OFFERS MORE TALKS AND PUSHES DE-ESCALATION IN NEW LETTER TO MOSCOW: Scoop this morning from POLITICO's Jacopo Barigazzi . The letter, a draft of which was seen by POLITICO, represents the EU's collective response to a recent memo Russia sent to EU countries. It was signed by the EU's top diplomat, Josep Borrell.

Russian military exercises are scheduled to start Thursday, and Moscow has warships sailing toward the Black Sea.

Why Germany pipes down when Nord Stream 2 talk turns to sanctions .

The Finlandization of Ukraine: You see this idea crop up more and more in online discussions — that Ukraine should be boxed in the way Austria was by treaty in 1955 and Finland was by choice in the 1940s: as an officially neutral country.

Joint Statement from the U.S.- EU Energy Council: No specific deals but strong commitments to support each other to keep clear of Russian energy dependence.

NEW POLL: MAJORITIES IN EUROPE BELIEVE RUSSIA WILL INVADE: Europeans also say they want EU countries and NATO to come to Ukraine's defense. A survey by the European Council for Foreign Relations found slim majorities for defending Ukraine among major powers: Germany (52 percent), France (51 percent) and Italy (51 percent), but much higher support among populations that have lived under Moscow's thumb in the past: Poland (73 percent) and Romania (64 percent). Only in neutral Finland is there no majority for Ukraine defense (44 percent).

ECFR's experts told Global Insider that when it comes to defending Ukraine following any invasion, European populations trust the EU, NATO and Germany (specifically) more than they trust the U.S. Poland is the population most likely to worry about energy dependence on Russia, and to accept the costs and risks of supporting Ukraine following an invasion.

ECFR's Mark Leonard said: "The data we've collected suggests something of a geopolitical awakening in Europe," including that "war in Europe is thinkable once again."

GEOPOLITICS — GREECE EDGES CLOSER TO U.S. AT RUSSIA'S EXPENSE: Greece is hosting more American troops and buying U.S. energy, frustrating Russia, reports Nektaria Stamouli.

COVID — DISPUTE OVER VACCINE IP LOOMS AT EU-AU SUMMIT: POLITICO's Ashleigh Furlong reports the African Union has presented a draft summit declaration that would come out of the EU-AU summit, and one thing is clear — the African negotiations don't want mention of an "Africa — Europe Alliance," (they prefer to call it a "renewed AU-EU Partnership") and insist on a reference to waiving Covid vaccine intellectual property rights to support quicker and fairer distribution.

The paragraph states: "The African Union reiterated its support for the TRIPS Waiver request and urged the European Union to engage constructively towards conclusion of a targeted and time limited waiver."

 

DON'T MISS CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO's new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE.

 
 
GLOBETROTTERS

MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE GOING AHEAD IN-PERSON FEB. 18-20: Organizers promise "more than 30" heads of state and government. The conference will be opened by U.N. Secretary General António Guterres, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will lead the home delegation. The topics that will unavoidably consume nearly all attention: Ukraine and Iran.

THE IMPORTANCE OF FORGIVENESS IN GLOBAL AFFAIRS: Ambassador Dang Dinh Quy, Vietnam's U.N. envoy, is heading home after two years sitting next to the U.S. — his government's former enemy — in the U.N. Security Council. He talked to PassBlue about why the act of forgiveness is vital in world affairs.

BRAIN FOOD 

LONG READ: From Lantau to Ealing: Hong Kong's homesick exiles in Britain , by Stuart Lau.

LONG READ: Learning to want less, by Arthur C. Brooks.

Thanks to editor John Yearwood, Daniel Lippman, Karl Mathiesen and Hannah Farrow

 

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Ryan Heath @PoliticoRyan

 

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