Playbook PM: U.S. warns that Russia’s ‘false flag’ pretext is here

Feb 18, 2022

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BREAKING — "U.S. Officials Warn of Imminent Russian Invasion of Ukraine With Tanks, Fighter Jets, Cyber," by WSJ's Gordon Lubold, Michael Gordon, Yaroslav Trofimov and Ann Simmons

NEW ON THE SCHEDULE — President JOE BIDEN will give a public update on the Russia/Ukraine situation at 4 p.m. in the Roosevelt Room, following his call with trans-Atlantic leaders. And press secretary JEN PSAKI will be joined at her briefing by ANNE NEUBERGER, deputy national security adviser for cyber and emerging technology, and DALEEP SINGH, deputy national security adviser and deputy NEC director.

SIREN — U.S. intelligence shows that Russia has drafted lists of Ukrainian politicians and Russian/Belarusian dissidents in exile to arrest or kill if it invades, Foreign Policy's Amy Mackinnon, Robbie Gramer and Jack Detsch scooped . "The Biden administration has also been startled by how formalized the lists are, which appear to target anyone who could challenge the Russian agenda."

Here are the latest Russia-Ukraine developments on the ground today:

— The situation is still early and uncertain, but there were fresh signs today of a potential casus belli — a trumped-up or forged pretext for war that the West has been warning Russia would find to justify an invasion. Leaders of two breakaway pro-Russian regions in Ukraine's east urged civilians to evacuate today and head for Russia. State news in Russia and Donetsk alleged some kind of explosion and trumpeted the evacuations. The State Department said this was just the type of "false flag" they'd expected.

— Both Ukraine and Russian media alleged fresh cease-fire breaches in eastern Ukraine today. Ukrainian forces said there had been 45 violations; Russian state media claimed there were three strikes from Ukraine. More from CNBC

— The Biden administration is worried about Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY leaving the country for the Munich Security Conference this weekend, fearing that Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN might take advantage of his absence, per NBC . Zelenskyy's office then said he may alter his plans if there are major changes by Saturday.

— The U.S. now assesses that Russia has placed somewhere between 169,000 and 190,000 troops near Ukraine's borders, up from 100,000 at the end of last month, U.S. Ambassador to the OSCE MICHAEL CARPENTER said.

— Putin, meanwhile, continued to insist today that while he's open to diplomacy, the West needs to meet his demands on NATO expansion and other security matters: "We are ready to go on the negotiating track under the condition that all questions will be considered together, without being separated from Russia's main proposals." More from the NYT

And the bigger picture in Europe:

— Germany took its most forceful steps yet toward indicating that a Russian invasion could jeopardize the Nord Stream 2 pipeline: "We, Germany, are prepared to pay a high economic price for this," Foreign Minister ANNALENA BAERBOCK said. "That's why all options are on the table for me, also Nord Stream 2." More from Reuters

— The State Department signed off on a deal to sell 250 Abrams tanks to Poland, a move that Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN linked explicitly to strengthening NATO's eastern flank to Putin's dismay. Paul McLeary reports that members of Congress were pushing the administration to OK the $6 billion sale, but still "it will be months, if not years, before the first tanks arrive in Poland."

— In a new piece for Foreign Affairs, Liana Fix and Michael Kimmage envision what could happen if Russia actually succeeds in taking over or destroying Ukraine: "U.S. and European leaders would face the dual challenge of rethinking European security and of not being drawn into a larger war with Russia. All sides would have to consider the potential of nuclear-armed adversaries in direct confrontation." And the West may be "deeply unprepared" for the prospect of a new order on the continent, they write.

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IN MEMORIAM — Rep. JIM HAGEDORN (R-Minn.) died Thursday night at 59 after fighting kidney cancer for years, his wife JENNIFER CARNAHAN announced this morning.

— Hagedorn won his seat in 2018, one of the country's only Republican flips in a Democratic wave year. In Congress, he "was a staunch ally of President DONALD TRUMP," the Star Tribune's Hunter Woodall writes, and voted against certifying the 2020 election results.

— His district in southern Minnesota is Democratic Gov. TIM WALZ's former seat, but the largely white, rural, working-class district has been swinging sharply to the right in recent years, POLITICO's ace House campaigns reporter Ally Mutnick tells us. (BARACK OBAMA narrowly won it in 2012, then Trump notched a 15-point victory four years later.) Hagedorn turned back a strong Democratic challenge in 2020, and redistricting didn't alter the district much, taking it from Trump +10 to Trump +9.

— A special election is expected to take place Aug. 9 to fill the remainder of Hagedorn's term, concurrent with a primary election for the next term, per WCCO.

POLITICS ROUNDUP

KNOWING JOSH MANDEL — Michael Kruse is out with a major profile of the Ohio Republican Senate candidate: "According to interviews with more than 75 people — who have worked for him or against him or both, who like him or don't like him or used to — Mandel has been nothing if not an eager reader and rider of political currents. And that, they say, has made Mandel a singularly vivid lens through which to chart the deep, rattling changes in politics, in Ohio, on the right and overall, over the course of this last quarter-century.

"He doesn't act the way he used to act, and he doesn't talk the way he used to talk, say so many Democrats and Republicans alike. And they're right. He used to present as more moderate, used to preach bipartisanship and diversity and civility, and no longer does. Perhaps most importantly, he once was conspicuously unsupportive of Trump, and now he has publicly pivoted to full-fledged MAGA."

AGAINST THE GRAIN — Texas' near-total abortion ban last year dominated national headlines and promised to emerge as a central issue in the midterms. But just a couple of weeks out from the state's primary elections, not many people are emphasizing abortion, AP's Paul Weber reports from Austin. "It shows that both Democratic and Republican candidates alike in Texas have concluded other issues are currently higher priorities for voters in the primary — the economy, schools and health care chief among them."

LEDE OF THE DAY — "Not since Patsy Cline made it a country standard in 1961, perhaps, has 'I Fall to Pieces' resonated so poignantly in Music City," writes NYT's Michael Wines from Nashville, whose congressional seat Tennessee Republicans have carved up to end 147 years of Democratic representation for the city. The city is economically booming, and it's established a reputation as a blue dot in a red state usually led by relatively moderate Republicans. But the Trump era has come to Tennessee, as have a stream of conservative media and political heavyweights, and the gerrymander is the most visible sign of a cultural shift.

FOLLOWING THE MONEY — Republicans in several states promulgating false voter fraud claims are promoting special high-tech features to counterfeit-proof future ballots. But WaPo's Rosalind Helderman reports that such technology may only be available from one firm: Authentix, a Texas company "with no previous experience in elections that consulted with the lawmakers proposing the measures."

TOP-ED — "Biden Deserves a Primary Challenger," by Michael Starr Hopkins in The Daily Beast: "Biden, at a National Prayer Breakfast called [Senate Minority Leader MITCH] MCCONNELL his 'friend,' and even went so far as to call him 'a man of your word' and 'a man of honor.' As a Black man who supported Biden in 2020, this was a slap in the face and a punch in the gut. It was tone-deaf, utterly ridiculous, and the moment I realized, like 51 percent of Democratic-leaning voters, that Joe Biden needs a primary challenger."

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THE WHITE HOUSE

INFLATION NATION — Biden is pivoting to a "feel your pain" message on inflation, a shift from dismissals of rising prices as temporary earlier in his term, report WSJ's Catherine Lucey and Andrew Restuccia . "Democratic allies of Mr. Biden have in recent months privately told senior White House officials that the president should mount a more aggressive response to inflation," they write. "Mr. Biden is planning to talk about how inflation has affected Americans during his State of the Union address."

NO TAKEOUT FOR TAKEOUT — As lawmakers start working on putting together perhaps the last tranche of pandemic aid — to the tune of $30 billion — the White House is signaling it won't support more bailout funds for the restaurant industry. Adam Cancryn, Sarah Ferris and Nicholas Wu report that as coronavirus case numbers ebb, administration officials are "concerned it's unnecessary and would inflate the package's price tag." Congressional supporters say the White House is focused on optics while the industry still has dire needs, and there's a chance (though not a big one) that they could get more aid into a final package.

CONGRESS

NEXT UP — Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER outlined the chamber's top priorities when they return at the end of the month after next week's recess. At the head of the agenda: U.S. Postal Service reform, a presumably doomed effort to codify Roe v. Wade and a bill to cap insulin costs. More from Anthony Adragna in Congress Minutes

JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

ANOTHER INTERVIEW — The House Jan. 6 committee has interviewed KATRINA PIERSON, who helped organize the rally that day, Betsy Woodruff Swan and Nicholas Wu report. "Pierson in her committee interview did not invoke her right to not self-incriminate, known as pleading the Fifth."

AND MORE ON THE WAY? — The chief judge of the U.S. District Court in Washington, D.C., said today that Jan. 6 defendants who cooperate with/assist the congressional investigation should get lighter sentences — which "could open the floodgates for the select committee," Kyle Cheney notes .

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

WHITHER THE PROGRESSIVE PROSECUTORS? — The wave of reformers who swept into big-city offices over the past few years is now staring down a backlash, buffeted by rising rates of violent crime, reports NYT's Astead Herndon . Recall efforts are afoot in San Francisco and Los Angeles; even many Democrats are pushing for tougher-on-crime approaches. Prominent progressive prosecutors have won reelection in Chicago and in Philadelphia, but elsewhere, more moderate Black critics like San Francisco Mayor LONDON BREED and New York City Mayor ERIC ADAMS have offered resistance. "I think that whole honeymoon period lasts about five or six hours," said St. Louis County's WESLEY BELL, who's on the ballot again this fall.

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

THE PANDEMIC

BEHIND THE SCENES — The FDA's delay in approving the Pfizer/BioNTech coronavirus vaccine for kids under 5 was due to data that showed two doses performing worse against the Omicron variant, WSJ's Jared Hopkins and Stephanie Armour report . At the same time, "[s]o few study subjects, whether vaccinated or unvaccinated, developed Covid-19 during testing thus far that the small number of Omicron cases made the vaccine appear less effective in an early statistical analysis." The delay will allow researchers to examine the results in more children and compare against a three-dose series.

MEDIAWATCH

DEAN BAQUET'S NOT-QUITE-EXIT INTERVIEW — The NYT executive editor gave a lengthy interview to The New Yorker's Clare Malone, who writes that Baquet "seemed both reflective and defiant; one gets a sense of a man, at the twilight of his career, trying to protect his institution — not only the Times but journalism more broadly."

It's a fascinating interview that covers, among other topics, the newspaper's staff generational divides; whether reporters should cover racists with empathy; how much to give readers what they want; which NYT reporters Baquet is jealous of; whether he regrets the coverage of HILLARY CLINTON's emails (no); whether he regrets the coverage of Trump's rise (yes); and what's next for Baquet.

VALLEY TALK

FACEBOOK UNDER FIRE — New SEC whistleblower complaints from the group representing FRANCES HAUGEN "allege Facebook misled investors about its efforts to combat climate change and Covid-19 misinformation," reports WaPo's Cat Zakrzewski.

PLAYBOOKERS

Vivek Murthy and the rest of his family now have Covid-19.

MEDIA MOVES — Renee Klahr is joining the POLITICO video team. She previously was a producer at NPR, where she won an Edward R. Murrow Award. … Angel Torres is joining POLITICO as a homepage editor. He previously was a push and platforms editor at CBS News.

TRANSITIONS — Voto Latino is adding Kenny Sandoval as VP of campaigns and partnerships (most recently at Breakthrough Energy), Kristen Hernandez as VP for comms (previously at EMILY's List), and Liz Lebron as research manager of the Latino Anti-Disinformation Lab (previously in the Pinellas County, Fla., government). … Carissa Bunge is joining the Trust for Public Land's federal affairs team as a senior legislative representative. She previously was legislative director for Rep. Joe Neguse (D-Colo.). … Firehouse Strategies is expanding with new offices in New York City and Orlando, and adding Todd Reid to lead the Florida branch. He previously was deputy chief of staff and state director for Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.).

BONUS BIRTHDAYS: Alexis Stanley … DAGA's Ayodele Okeowo

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