The European standoff

Feb 14, 2022

With help from Catherine Morehouse

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QUICK FIX

— Tensions in Eastern Europe continue to ratchet higher, with little sign Russia will back off from an attack on Ukraine the U.S. is warning could come at any time.

— Progressives are growing irate over the lack of major climate action, and some lawmakers are nervous it could hurt them at the ballot box come November.

— The contentious Renewable Fuel Standard will be up for discussion in the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee this week.

HAPPY MONDAY! I'm your host, Matthew Choi. ACC's Andrew Fasoli gets the trivia for knowing Espoo is the second largest city proper in Finland. For today's trivia: BROCKHAMPTON first formed in what Texas city? Send your tips and trivia answers to mchoi@politico.com. Find me on Twitter @matthewchoi2018.

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Driving the day

THE STRAIN ON UKRAINE: Biden is talking tough to try to keep Russian President Vladimir Putin from sending troops into Ukraine, and he promised Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a Sunday telephone call that Washington would "respond swiftly and decisively" to a Russian attack. That came a day after Biden spoke to Putin for an hour, without making any breakthrough on the situation.

"President Biden was clear with President Putin that while the United States remains prepared to engage in diplomacy, in full coordination with our Allies and partners, we are equally prepared for other scenarios," the White House said in a readout of the call. Both sides said the call was businesslike, but the Kremlin dismissed the Biden administration's assessment as "hysteria."

The weekend calls came after the White House gave its most damning assessment yet on Friday when national security adviser Jake Sullivan said an "invasion could begin at any time, should Vladimir Putin decide to order it."

It goes without saying that a full scale invasion of Ukraine would be devastating in both humanitarian and economic terms. Biden urged U.S. citizens to leave the country, saying the military would not be available to get them out if the situation disintegrates like in Afghanistan last year. The State Department withdrew all but essential diplomatic personnel from Kyiv.

Oil markets are on tenterhooks over the likelihood of hostilities , and U.S. WTI crude futures surged four percent on Friday to reach the highest mark in nearly eight years, and are in striking distance of $100 a barrel. Russia is one of the world's largest oil exporters and was already showing signs of difficulty keeping up with scheduled output increases with the its OPEC+ partners.

Western leaders will continue their shuttle diplomacy to avoid armed conflict this week with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visiting Kyiv today and Moscow on Tuesday.

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WHERE'S THE CLIMATE, JOE? Liberal activists are not impressed with Democrats' climate achievements in the first year of the Biden administration, Pro's Josh Siegel, Kelsey Tamborrino and Alex Guillén report. The courtroom hurdles and slow progress on regulatory actions, combined with the failure of the Build Back Better legislation, have left the White House far off the path to meet the goals of cutting U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by at least half of 2005 levels by the end of the decade.

And that could leave Democrats without a strong set of accomplishments to tout in the run up to November's midterms elections, when many pundits are warning they are likely to lose control of Congress — which would mean more setbacks for the climate agenda.

"Voters are looking at us and shaking their heads with frustration," said Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), the chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. "In order for us to animate all parts of our base including climate voters we have to be able to show them what we've done. A lot of the big things they wanted to see action on, like climate, haven't happened yet."

Climate change was one of the central pillars to the Biden's campaign in 2020, and the administration has made some progress, from rejoining the Paris climate agreement, kicking off new methane rules, nixing the Keystone XL pipeline and getting tens of billions of dollar in last year's bipartisan infrastructure package for measures like updating the power grid and building a network of chargers for electric vehicles. But those moves pale when compared to things like the $320 billion in renewable tax credits that were in the BBB, and Biden's EPA could see its power to regulate power plants greenhouse gases clipped by the conservative Supreme Court when it takes up the case later this month. Read more from Josh, Kelsey and Alex.

IN COMMITTEE: The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee will meet on Wednesday to dig into the biofuels program under the Renewable Fuel Standard, which has been the center of whirlwind debates after EPA unveiled its blending targets for 2020, 2021 and 2022. The committee also has votes planned for two EPA nominations: David Uhlmann to be assistant administrator for Enforcement and Compliance Assurance and Carlton Waterhouse to be assistant administrator for the Office of Solid Waste.

The House Natural Resources Committee has two legislative hearings this week related to energy and the environment. On Tuesday, the committee will discuss Chair Raul Grijalva's Environmental Justice For All Act, H.R. 2021 (117), which would outline a framework for advancing environmental justice, including the creation of new advisory boards and programs for disadvantaged communities. On Thursday, the Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources olds a hearing on Grijalva's Climate Adaptation Science Centers Act, H.R. 6654 (117) , which would direct the Interior Department to establish new bodies to create climate adaptation strategies. The hearing itself will focus on climate adaptation at the U.S. Geological Survey.

The House Energy and Commerce Environment and Climate Change Subcommittee will meet Tuesday on economically revitalizing brownfield sites. The House Climate Crisis Committee will also meet Tuesday on ways to secure grid reliability via funds from the bipartisan infrastructure package. Among the witnesses for that hearing is Nancy Sutley, a former head of the Obama White House Council on Environmental Quality, where she was one of the chief architects of President Obama's 2013 Climate Action Plan.

Around the Agencies

FERC TO TACKLE GAS POLICY: FERC could take critical steps to change how it considers natural gas infrastructure this week. According to the agenda posted Friday , the commission is set to consider items related to the commission's process for certifying interstate pipelines and other gas infrastructure. And the regulators will look at how greenhouse gas emissions are assessed, which had been the topic of a technical conference the commission hosted last year that probed potential avenues the regulatory agency could take to deal with the climate impacts of gas facilities. Finally, the commission is teed up to consider the Spire STL Pipeline's permit to operate, which it temporarily extended in December in order to ease fears about winter deliveries to the region after the D.C. Circuit vacated the certificate in June.

The packed agenda could lend further insight into how Commissioner Willie Phillips intends to vote on these issues. During the January open meeting — Phillips' first as a voting commissioner — the regulator and his two Democratic colleagues Chair Richard Glick and Commissioner Allison Clements all questioned whether an LNG terminal located in an environmental justice community should have been approved in the first place. The majority consensus marked a potential shift in how the commission might certify natural gas facilities, given several decisions by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit that have recently questioned whether the commission was being thorough when it decides whether a market needs a new facility.

SOCIAL COST OF CARBON TAKES A HIT: The Biden administration hit a roadblock last week as it prepares to roll out an updated social cost of greenhouse gasses this summer. A Trump-appointed federal judge in Louisiana sided with 10 Republican-controlled states in their lawsuit against the Biden administration after it effectively reinstated an Obama-era social cost of carbon last year. The figures are used to calculate economic impacts from greenhouse gases in permits and regulations, and last year's update widened the scope of considerations from those employed by the Trump administration. But the red states asserted the Biden administration had overstepped its bounds. The administration is likely to appeal the decision. Read more from Alex.

DOE MOVES ON BIF FUNDING: The Energy Department is making moves toward making available almost $9 billion for nuclear energy infrastructure and the domestic battery supply chain under the bipartisan infrastructure package. The department released notices of intent Friday to invest $2.9 billion for battery manufacturing to bolster the nation's storage capacity and electric vehicles, and $6 billion for the IIJA's Civil Nuclear Credit Program, which would allow nuclear operators to compete for credits to keep the country's fleet running.

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.