The West’s two-part strategy for stopping an invasion

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Feb 18, 2022 View in browser   By Usha Sahay Programming Note: Global Insider will be off this Monday for Presidents Day but will be back in your inboxes on Wednesday, Feb. 23. Happening Today This week, we started to see the outlines of the West's emerging two-pronged strategy for countering Russian President Vladimir Putin — even as the chances of stopping an invasion of Ukraine felt increasingly slim. The first prong has been clear for a while: shaping the narrative through strategic public disclosures of intelligence. As many observershave noted, the U.S. has made a point of telling the world exactly what it thinks Putin is doing, both to box in his next moves and to convince the world that any conflict would be his fault alone. The administration is openly acknowledging its war for the public narrative. A senior State Department official told my colleague Nahal Toosi this week that "Officials across the State Department are flooding the airwaves with a media blitz of information on Russia and Ukraine, highlighting the incredible diplomatic efforts taking place right now and to underscore the United States solidarity with the people of Ukraine." This week, the second part of the strategy started becoming clear: multilateral condemnations through a variety of international gatherings. The idea that nations should work together with partners and allies to combat security threats has, of course, been long been the norm in diplomatic circles — in theory, if not always in practice. This week, the world leaned hard on transatlantic — and global — solidarity as a force multiplier to show Putin the world is unified against him. Will it work? Happy Friday, everyone! I'm Usha Sahay, a senior editor at POLITICO Magazine, filling in for the vacationing Ryan Heath. On Thursday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken made a last-minute trip to the premier multilateral gathering, the U.N Security Council. He continued the strategy of outlining what the U.S. expects Russia to do, saying, "We are laying it out in great detail, with the hope that by sharing what we know with the world, we can influence Russia to abandon the path of war and choose a different path." The choice of the Security Council seemed to symbolize an effort to get the world on board with a U.S. push to prevent an invasion. (Blinken seemed to nod to former Secretary of State Colin Powell 's infamous U.N. speech on Iraq when he said, "I am here today, not to start a war, but to prevent one.") NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg this week used another important multilateral forum — the NATO defense ministerial in Brussels — to dispute Kremlin claims that Russia is pulling troops back from the Ukraine border and state that NATO is aware of Russian false-flag operations. Stoltenberg's speech seemed part of the collective effort to push back on Russia's de-escalatory narrative by sharing what the allies know of Russian plans. On Thursday in Brussels, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austinsimilarly sounded the alarm, and President Joe Biden reiterated the warning from Washington. Allied capitals seem remarkably united around a strategy of disclosing Putin's plans in the hopes that he will change them. Today also kicks off one of the most important unofficial multilateral gatherings, the Munich Security Conference, with Vice President Kamala Harris attending alongside Blinken. It's sure to be one of the most tense editions of the transatlantic confab in recent memory. POLITICO's Matthew Karnitschnig has a deep dive on MSC Chair Wolfgang Ischinger and how his role running the conference has opened up lucrative side-hustles, raising questions about conflicts of interest. Also, Daniel Fried and Kurt Volker have a curtain-raiser in POLITICO Magazine on Putin's now-notorious speech at Munich 15 years ago, arguing that while back then, there was still some post-Cold War optimism about working with Russia, today we should have no such illusions. Can international solidarity, combined with a full-court press of intelligence leaks, stop Putin? If Western officials' pronouncements are any indication, the outlook is bleak. But Putin is ultimately deterred, it'll be a huge win for the Biden administration's information-heavy strategy — as well as for the long-touted idea that like-minded partners can work together in concert to beat back global threats.   STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.     GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS Here's what else is happening: EU-AFRICA AWKWARDNESS: European Union officials met with African leaders in Brussels this week, hoping to improve a rocky relationship that's only gotten worse due to the pandemic. According to POLITICO's Barbara Moens, the summit largely managed to avoid being overshadowed by Ukraine — which is a good thing, since there are tons of thorny issues on the agenda. Disagreements over vaccine assistance to Africa remain a major sore spot, while the end of France's nearly decade-long military operation in Mali caused further awkwardness. IRAN TALKS COME TO MUNICH? My colleague Stephanie Liechtenstein reports from Vienna that Iran nuclear deal negotiators are expected to travel from Vienna to Munich over the weekend to continue diplomatic talks on the margins of the Munich Security Conference. Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian is also expected to come, although neither the Munich Security Conference nor the Iranian Foreign Ministry have officially confirmed his attendance. Meanwhile, negotiators in Vienna say they have never been so close to a deal but add that some difficult issues remain unresolved. Reuters reported Thursday on a 20-page draft agreement that takes a sequential approach, beginning with limits on Iranian enrichment, unfreezing of Iranian assets in South Korean banks and the release of Western prisoners. It remains to be seen whether a deal will be inked. As a Western negotiator told Stephanie, "In a moment like this the mood changes by the hour. You think everything goes well just to think an agreement is impossible one hour later." U.S. LAWMAKERS DESCEND ON ISRAEL: A congressional delegation, including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, traveled to Israel this week. Pelosi addressed the Knesset on Wednesday, vowing U.S. support to the country against the threat from Iran and expressing hopes that the Senate would join the House in passing further funding for Iron Dome. (In an interesting crossover, Ynet news reported this week that Israel has blocked the sale of Iron Dome to the Ukrainians.) Other good reads on U.S.-Israel relations this week: Elise Labott for POLITICO Magazine on Idan Roll, and Amir Tibon for Foreign Affairs on Joe Biden and Naftali Bennett. THE NEXT ISIS LEADER? Hassan Hassan in Newlines Magazine reports that Bashar Khattab Ghazal al-Sumaidai is likely to replace Abu Ibrahim Al-Qurashi, after the U.S. raid that led to the former Islamic State leader's death by suicide. A WAY FORWARD IN AFGHANISTAN: In War on the Rocks, a former adviser to Afghan President Ashraf Ghani outlines a potential compromise between the West, the Taliban and Afghanistan's anti-Taliban resistance to avert humanitarian crisis. OLYMPIC UPDATE: Russian figure skater Kamila Valieva had a rough night, just days after she was permitted to compete despite a positive drug test. But it was her coach who's coming out of these games looking unsportsmanlike. BRAIN FOOD 'WE ARE ALL REALISTS NOW': In The Atlantic, George Packer looks at Enes Kanter's "lonely campaign" to call out China at a time when the world of global sports — and really, a lot of the world — has little interest in human rights. ACTUALLY, MAYBE IT IS A NEW COLD WAR: Also in the Atlantic, Michael Schuman suggests the comparisons to a new Cold War may be more accurate when it comes to China's nuclear buildup. MEANWHILE IN SOUTH AMERICA: Argentina has agreed to join China's Belt and Road Initiative, another sign of China's inroads in Latin America. (h/t Phelim Kine)   DON'T MISS CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO's new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE.     ONE FUN THING ITALY'S CROWN JEWELS: Descendants of Italy's royal family are waging a legal battle to remove the crown jewels from a safe deposit box. Insiders may be interested in a new announcement from Netflix that Keri Russell will star as a "career diplomat who lands a high-profile job she's unsuited for in the midst of an international crisis." The jokes write themselves. Your guest host will be watching, but my Netflix bar is pretty low these days. Let's just hope it's better than Madam Secretary. With thanks to editors John Yearwood and Ben Pauker.   Follow us on Twitter Ryan Heath @PoliticoRyan   Follow us

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