Party's over for Russia in Davos

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Mar 09, 2022 View in browser   By Ryan Heath Send tips and thoughts to rheath@politico.com. Check out the weekly Global Insider podcast | Follow Ryan on Twitter. Happening Today High energy: Global energy executives and climate officials are meeting in Houston. Counting is underway in South Korea's presidential election: Exit polls show the race virtually tied, after a scandal-ridden campaign. HAPPENING TOMORROW Ukraine cold snap: Refugees and Russian soldiers will be in peril, with some warning that Arctic winds "will turn Russian vehicles into 40-tonne freezers." EU national leaders meet — in Versailles, France: POLITICO obtained their draft declaration. Host Emmanuel Macron is pulling away from his right-wing rivals in presidential polling. President Joe Biden hosts Colombian President Iván Duque Márquez to celebrate 200 years of diplomatic relations. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ruling party will likely retain control of India's most populous state of Uttar Pradesh, when counting of results from a monthlong state election starts. DAVOS FREEZES OUT PUTIN AND OLIGARCHS "We are not engaging with any sanctioned individual and have frozen all relations with Russian entities," Amanda Russo, a WEF spokesperson, told Global Insider. Read the full story. As well they might, you say — but this wasn't a given. WEF leaves open the possibility of serving as a bridge-builder between Russia and Ukraine once active conflict is over — and indeed was happy to invite Vladimir Putin to speak in January 2015 after his invasion of Crimea, and throughout Russia-linked atrocities in Syria. Putin and his predecessor as president, Dmitry Medvedev, have addressed WEF five times since 2007. For now, WEF has come down heavily on the side of Ukraine: Founder Klaus Schwab and WEF President Børge Brende said in a written statement: "Our full solidarity is with Ukraine's people and all those who are suffering innocently from this totally unacceptable war." In practice, the ban means no more oligarchs in Davos when the Forum recovenes in May for the first time in more than two years, and a hole of several million dollars in WEF's budget, which already faced a $45 million shortfall due to lack of in-person events in 2021. Herman Gref — chief executive officer of Sberbank, which has been sanctioned by the U.S., U.K. and Canada — is no longer listed as a member of WEF's board of trustees. A Kremlin-backed research center in Moscow and an advisory council led by Putin's economic adviser have also been torpedoed. Why it's happening — Morals v. rubles: Part of it is reputation management, part of it is sanctions. Telegram and WhatsApp conversations among members of WEF's global networks show members of "Young Global Leaders" and other groups are furious at WEF's Russia ties. WEF also has to comply with U.S., EU and Swiss sanctions: At least six Davos regulars are now subject to personal or organizational sanctions from Western governments. Chrystia Freeland, who led the charge to get Russian banks kicked out of SWIFT, is a WEF board member, and SWIFT itself is a WEF partner. Why it matters: Even before Putin's presidency, Davos loomed large in the minds of Russian elites. It's where oligarchs decided to back Boris Yeltsin to stop the Communists returning to power, for example. Post-Soviet Russia and the World Economic Forum rose together: Each desperately wanted to be seen as a great power. The deal was relatively simple at first: Putin endorsed WEF, the oligarchs funded it, and in turn the Forum helped launder their reputations. You can call it multi-stakeholderism, a transaction or the ugly truth of globalization. But like Schwab and Putin, it's no longer the future. UKRAINE — NEXT STEPS TO WATCH FOR BEIJING SOFT SPLIT FROM MOSCOW: President Xi Jinping intervened in the Ukraine crisis by calling for "maximum restraint" and saying that he supports French and German "peace efforts." LEADERSHIP PERSONIFIED: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy keeps running communication masterclasses with his smartphone. The latest example — evoking Churchill and Shakespeare in an address to the U.K. House of Commons. Speaking via video-link, Zelenskyy vowed to fight Russian forces "in the forests, in the fields, on the shores and on the streets." He said: "We will fight till the end. At sea. In the air. We will continue fighting for our land whatever the cost." RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS IMPORT FREEZE, SORT OF: The U.S. has finally adopted a Russian crude oil and natural gas ban, while Europeans are sort of, maybe, doing similar things. The key reason: Many European countries depend on Russia heavily. The average is 45 percent of the EU's natural gas comes from Russia, but that disguises national figures of close to 100 percent in seven of the EU's 27 member countries. In comparison, the U.S. relies on Russia for a low single-digit percentage of its oil and none of its natural gas. Slow sanctions: U.K. to ban Russian oil imports, just not yet. Maybe in summer. EU energy independence, sort of: The European Commission's plans to reduce imports of Russian natural gas by two-thirds in 2022 depend on a mix of buying more from the U.S., new wind and solar sources and folks turning down the heat in their buildings. MIDDLE EAST PICKS SIDES: What Abraham Accords? The U.S. might be proving it can mobilize allies in Europe. But the leaders of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have declined requests to speak to President Biden during the Ukraine crisis, officials say, even as UAE leads the U.N. Security Council. They both took calls from Putin. NATO LOOKS FOR A NEW LEADER: Will Jens Stoltenberg really head off to the Norwegian central bank this summer? Probably, yes. But his replacement won't pass muster if they're merely a former foreign or defense minister. The pool of candidates is narrowing down to former heads of state and government. While Polish heavyweights like Donald Tusk may look good on paper, they won't win backing from their government. That leaves figures like Theresa May (who has been tough on Russia for years) or the Netherlands' Mark Rutte (now in his 11th year as prime minister) at the head of the field.   STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.     UKRAINE — GLOBAL IMPACTS McSANCTIONS: McDonald's announced Tuesday that it would temporarily shutter its 850 restaurants in Russia over the war in Ukraine. In a letter to staff, CEO Chris Kempczinski said the 62,000 people employed at McDonald's across the country would continue to receive their salaries. McDonald's has an iconic history in Russia: Its first restaurant in the country was opened in Moscow in January 1990 — in the midst of the fall of the Soviet Union, symbolizing a new openness and prosperity. OVERBOARD! The crew of MV Banglar Samriddhi, a Bangladeshi cargo ship stranded near the Ukrainian port of Olvia, "heard an explosion, then the bridge was engulfed in flames." One crew member died. "It was the fifth merchant ship to be hit by artillery off Ukraine's coast since Russia invaded," The Wall Street Journal reported. GERMANY — INSIDE SCHOLZ'S HISTORIC SHIFT: How it happened and what the limits are.  SERBIA — BLOWBACK FOR PRESIDENT VUČIĆ'S PUTIN TIES: The closer you were, the harder you fall.Aleksandar Vučić is struggling to have it all: cozy relations with Russia, a fast-track to EU membership and reelection in April. Having ensured Serbia is heavily dependent on Russian energy, and having encouraged pro-Moscow sentiment, the president now faces "rampant pro-Putin propaganda pedaled for years by tabloid media outlets loyal to Vučić." PUTIN IS PUSHING BREXIT ANIMOSITY ASIDE: The EU and U.K. are confronted with the reality that on the things that matter most, they're on the same side. AFRICA — GOVERNMENTS INVESTIGATE WHETHER UKRAINE IS RECRUITING FIGHTERS: Nigerian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Francisca Omayuli said her office is investigating alleged recruitment of volunteer fighters to join the war in Ukraine. While the Ukrainian embassy in Abuja says some Nigerians have contacted them on their volition, it denied the claim they offered Nigerians $1,000 for airfares and a visa. Senegal and Algeria also claim their citizens are being recruited. In the case of Algeria, the Ukrainian embassy had removed a post on Facebook calling foreigners to come forward and fight Russian invaders. PERSPECTIVES THE UGLY TRUTH ABOUT NO-FLY ZONES: The pressure for revenge will be great, writes Damir Marusic, and in such situations, quick escalation is not only possible, but likely . "Russian anti-aircraft batteries in Belarus and Russia easily cover all of Ukraine's territory, and would shoot down allied planes at will. In order for a no-fly zone to be enforced, therefore, we would have to be ready to bomb military installations outside of Ukraine, and indeed on Russian soil." Reality check: Even though they are starved of facts and fed false information about the war, it cannot yet be said that the Russian people are not galvanized behind the war. Being at war with all of NATO may crystallize support for Putin, rather than erode it. FIGHT NOW OR FLIGHT LATER: That's the warning from former British military chief Chris Deverell. "I have been against the imposition of a no-fly zone by NATO in Ukraine, believing that it would surely escalate the conflict, but Putin seems hell-bent on escalation. So the question is becoming: Does NATO fight him now or fight him later?" By the numbers: 73 percent of European respondents to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll said they would support a move by the U.S. and NATO allies to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine, even if that brought NATO into conflict with Russia's military. WHAT IF WE ALL DID AS THE DUTCH DO? The West would raise about $6 billion for Ukraine's war effort without a NATO government fingerprint on it. THE NEW WALL: Why the West should help Russians learn the truth about Putin's war. THE NEW EXODUS: Per POLITICO's David Herszenhorn, "The bombs are falling in Ukraine but many people also fleeing Russia in fear of Putin's repression. Not just journalists but corp lawyers, finance folks etc. Since most have visas (& resources) tracking numbers will be difficult. But exodus to Georgia, Baltics, Turkey, is underway." ANTI-BDS LAWMAKERS PUSH TO BOYCOTT RUSSIA: In Congress, "tough rhetoric and swift reprisals have been embraced by lawmakers on both sides of the aisle, who have called for sanctions to decimate Russia's economy," writes Joseph Gedeon, "to some longtime advocates of the boycott, divestment and sanctions movement meant to target Israel's economy amid bloody conflicts with Palestinians, those calls sound eerily familiar." GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS NEW PODCAST EPISODE — GAYLE SMITH Global Insider podcast with Gayle Smith "It didn't have to unfold this way" — Biden's Global Covid Response coordinator opens up about what went wrong with Covid vaccine markets and what she'd do to make a Covax 2.0 work better. "Securing COVAX's place in the market in a more deliberate way" would have "made a huge difference" in getting vaccines to low- and middle-income countries, Smith told Global Insider, noting that "you can't go on the market with pledges." Instead, you need cold, hard cash. "It would make a huge difference to harmonize regulatory policies where possible" around the world. Smith is frustrated that drug producers didn't make more effort to come together to help address gaps and imbalances in the global market, criticizing them for prioritizing their biggest and existing customers. The takeaways: — "Global diversification of production is something we really need to focus on." — Governments should not be afraid of temporary IP waivers because "the rules we have [now] haven't worked." — "There needs to be full transparency across the board, price, production allocation: Who's getting what delivery, when, across the board." Smith called for $19 billion in 2022 for America's global Covid response. On the question of the Biden administration's promise of another global summit in Q1, 2022: "We're hopeful that it will indeed take place in April. We're also hopeful that that might be announced soon, because that enables countries to prepare," she said. STATUS OF WOMEN — INTERNATIONAL WOMEN'S DAY: The Economist's just-released 2022 glass-ceiling index is a yearly assessment of where women have the best and worst chances of equal treatment at work in countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The United States fell by two places to the 20th spot. It is still an outlier for providing no federally mandated parental leave. ASIA — FALL OF FORTRESS NEW ZEALAND: After two years of recording daily case numbers of zero or single digits, it's all collapsed with a bang in New Zealand . Cases are now averaging close to 20,000 a day over the past week, and about 1 in every 25 people in the country has Covid currently: the equivalent of about 15 million Americans having Covid at the same time. That's despite 78 percent of the Kiwi population being double vaccinated. MIDDLE EAST — YEMEN: U.N. Special Envoy Hans Grundberg has begun consultations to finalize a new, comprehensive peace process framework.   DON'T MISS CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO's new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE.     GLOBETROTTERS JAVANKA — MAKING A HABIT OF BEING BAD NEIGHBORS  CONCORDIA AMERICAS SUMMIT SHIFTS TO MIAMI: The 2022 Concordia Americas Summit is moving back a month. Instead of running alongside the Ninth Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles in June, it will now take place in Florida in partnership with the Organization of American States in July. KLEPTOWATCH  WHY BRITAIN'S TORIES ARE ADDICTED TO RUSSIAN MONEY  LOBBYISTS CUT TIES WITH RUSSIA: Even after the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and reports that Russia interfered in the 2016 election, an $18 million spigot of Russian money to Washington's K Street kept flowing. But it's the invasion of Ukraine that has finally convinced American lobbyists to start turning down money from Kremlin allies, reports Hailey Fuchs. BRAIN FOOD MOVIE — THE JUMP: The Embassy of Lithuania will screen "The Jump," followed by a discussion with director Giedrė Žičkytė on March 15. On Thanksgiving Day, 1970, an American and Soviet vessel pulled alongside each other just off Martha's Vineyard for a conference on fishing rights. Lithuanian sailor Simas Kudirka jumped onto the American boat in a bid for freedom, but was returned to the Soviets by the American Coast Guard and is tried for treason. Tickets here. Thanks to editor John Yearwood, producer Kelly Hooper, Joseph Gedeon and all the POLITICO reporters working across eight countries who are reporting on the Russian war in Ukraine.   Follow us on Twitter Ryan Heath @PoliticoRyan   Follow us

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