Straight talk on Tory strategy

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Mar 25, 2022 View in browser   By Nick Taylor-Vaisey Send tips | Subscribe here | Follow Politico Canada WELCOME TO OTTAWA PLAYBOOK. I'm your host, Nick Taylor-Vaisey. TGIF. We start with reporting from ANDY BLATCHFORD on the foreign fighters, including Canadians, flooding into Ukraine. Also, MELANIE PARADIS has some common-sense advice for Tory leadership candidates. But first, we're hosting an event in the outside world. YOU ARE INVITED — On March 30 at 12 p.m. ET, POLITICO Canada will host a Twitter Space with smart people who know what it takes to build a budget: — ROBERT ASSELIN, the senior vice-president of policy at the Business Council of Canada and former adviser to BILL MORNEAU. — SAHIR KHAN, executive vice-president at the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy and a former PCO economic and financial adviser. — REBEKAH YOUNG, the director of fiscal and provincial economics at Scotiabank and a former senior official at the Department of Finance. — JENNIFER ROBSON, a Carleton prof who helped design and implement public programs inside and outside of government. We're also hosting a real-life mixer in downtown Ottawa later that afternoon — a chance to connect with plugged-in political junkies who know a thing or two about building budgets. Location: Queen Street Fare. Time: 4:30-5:30 p.m. Send us an RSVP if you're as keen as we are to nerd out about budgets. Did someone forward Ottawa Playbook to you today? Are you ready to be a forwarder, not a forwardee? Click here to sign up to this free newsletter. Driving the Day JOINING THE FIGHT — Canada isn't at war with Russia. But make no mistake: Canadians are at war with Russians. POLITICO's ANDY BLATCHFORD dug into the inner workings of a pair of foreign-fighter groups: The Georgian Legion and the International Legion of Territorial Defense of Ukraine. Read his full report here. Andy spoke to Commander MAMUKA MAMULASHVILI, the leader of the Georgian Legion, and Cprl. DAMIEN MAGROU, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Legion. — Who are the Canadians? Magrou said his group has kept soldiers with common nationalities in the same units. A "large, large majority" of the Canadian recruits are of Ukrainian descent and many have arrived with "old comrades-in-arms" from their tours in Afghanistan, Magrou said. — The president's message: When VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY spoke to Canadian parliamentarians, he sent a specific message to Ukrainians in Canada. "This is a historical moment and we need your support — your practical support," said Zelenskyy, who stopped short of specifics. "We hope that with your practical steps you will show that you are part of more than Ukrainian history." Magrou said he heard in Zelenskyy's message an appeal for Ukrainian-Canadians to take up arms against Russia. — Who's all-in on Ukraine, and who's more words than action? POLITICO's RYAN HEATHmapped 35 countries on their sanctions, words, weapons and willingness to end their economic dependencies on Russia. — The latest from the G-7: Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU and the rest of the leaders meeting in Brussels pledged to do something about food shortages that will disrupt the food supply all over the world — including Middle Eastern and North African countries who rely on Russia and Ukraine's exports. Read more of POLITICO's reporting on the latest promise here. ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR REBATE MATH — In a new report, Parliamentary Budget Officer YVES GIROUX compared the upfront costs of carbon pricing on typical households and the federal rebates most Canadians can claim at tax time. It's bad news for Liberals who like happy voters in the four provinces that won't play ball with Ottawa. — The bottom line: "Household carbon costs will exceed the Climate Action Incentive payments households receive." OIL SANDS TO THE RESCUE — Europe is about to import more Canadian fossil fuels. Natural Resources Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON told reporters after an International Energy Agency ministerial meeting that Canada will boost oil and gas exports by up to 300,000 barrels a day by the end of 2022. — The difference it'll make: The Canadian boost adds up to "a relatively small proportion" of the displacement of Russian exports, Wilkinson said. But allies who have greater pipeline capacity are also stepping up. The U.S. will increase production by 1 million barrels. Brazil announced another 300,000 barrel-a-day bump. — Threading the needle: Europe requires oil and gas in the short-term crisis response, but Wilkinson said the broader goal for Europeans is "eliminating their reliance on oil and gas altogether." He insisted that his government, which has a month to release a plan to reach net-zero emissions, hasn't forgotten about that other crisis. "Canada firmly believes that we collectively must act boldly to address pressing energy security issues, but that clearly, we must do so in a manner that will ensure that we do not lose sight of, and that we can concurrently address, the climate crisis," he said. "The climate crisis is not going away." CONSERVATIVE CORNER — Former Conservative MP LEONA ALLESLEV, who was at the Metropolitain's big bash on Wednesday and had people with clipboards gathering signatures, launched a Tory leadership website. It's not exactly brand new. The vigilant wayback machine captured a March 13 version that featured the very same campaign logo — a maple leaf in three shades of blue. — PIERRE POILIEVRE told the Toronto Sun's BRIAN LILLEY that Trudeau is Canada's first NDP PM. But this quote jumped out at us: "He is so out of touch with the traditional Liberal approach of the Chrétien-Martin era." On this week's Curse of Politics pod, the old-school trio of DAVID HERLE, SCOTT REID and CHRISTY CLARK lamented for a Liberal Party that reined in spending and reduced budget deficits with purpose. Something tells us JENNI BYRNE , the Curse panelist on hiatus while she campaigns for Poilievre, was listening. — Interim leader CANDICE BERGEN implored every campaign to avoid excessive mud-slinging. She told CP: "When you wedge, divide and polarize, people are pulled down, they're not lifted up. So as a party, we should not be doing the same thing we're criticizing the Liberals for doing," — Digital campaign strategist COLE HOGAN sizes up the online game of major leadership candidates. His verdict so far: Advantage Poilievre. — JEAN CHAREST added an endorsement: Calgary MP RON LIEPERT, the campaign's new Alberta chair. TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS — PM Trudeau wakes up in Brussels for "private meetings" before boarding a plane to return to Ottawa. ETA at the Canada Reception Center: 12:15 ET. — Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Toronto for "private meetings." — 12:45 p.m. Bank of Canada deputy governor SHARON KOZICKI will speak at a San Francisco conference. The topic: "A world of difference: households, the pandemic and monetary policy." HALLWAY CONVERSATION When the Liberals and NDP signed a parliamentary cooperation pact this week, the dominant Conservative instinct in Ottawa was to attack the agreement's legitimacy and ignore the substance of the headline policy priorities like dental care and pharmacare. Playbook asked MELANIE PARADIS, a deputy campaign manager on ERIN O'TOOLE's leadership bid and then director of strategic communications in O'Toole's office, for a little straight talk on the Tory strategy. Her response: talk more about ideas. You tweeted this week about the need for Conservatives to develop competitive childcare, pharma and dental care plans. Conservatives don't generally like growing government, so what would this look like?  Honestly, the idea that we can't have nice things without growing government is just lazy. When did we stop being creative problem-solvers? For years, all Conservatives have been saying is "we need to respect parents" and "one-size fits all doesn't work for everyone," and then offering a tax credit for child care. We also, without fail, pivot to "the Liberals have been promising childcare for years and never deliver" — as if "yeah well, they are liars" is somehow cover for "we also aren't going to help you." In 2021, ERIN O'TOOLE's proposed tax credit would have lowered childcare costs by 75 percent for low-income families. That was identical to what DOUG FORD offered Ontario in 2018, but didn't solve for creating spaces. In 2019, Scheer didn't have anything in the platform about childcare — just a bunch of boutique tax credits that were, at best, childcare-adjacent. And in both 2019 and 2021, our platforms didn't even mention pharmacare or dental. But we have to offer solutions. We need to say, "OK, here's how we can do this without bankrupting the country." What about the argument that these are all provincial issues? Yeah, some will argue that we campaigned to increase health transfers to the provinces, which could include more access to drugs and dental. And that's true. But it's also a complete misunderstanding of the assignment. Because no one knows what the hell you mean at the doors. Busy mom of two doesn't give a flying fig about health transfers. She just wants to know if she can take her kid to the dentist, if there is an actual spot for her kid in daycare, and how much antibiotics will cost. "Health transfers'' is as meaningless as saying, "Oh, that's a provincial matter" when knocking on doors. When you say that, you are telling that mom you are going to do absolutely nothing for her. So why should she bother voting for you? We need to offer tangibles. OK, so what should be the Conservative version of these policies? We just went through this exercise of finding innovative solutions fast in the middle of a pandemic. Why don't Conservatives apply that same creative problem-solving to find real solutions for childcare, pharmacare and dental care? In Ontario, Premier Ford figured out how to get more kids pharmacare by turning the government into "the second payer." So, if your parents have health insurance, the private insurer is still the primary payer. The government only pays for the kids whose parents don't have that insurance. Why can't we build off that nationally? And how do we make it easier for employers to offer dental benefits and use a second-payer model for some essential dental services? People will say childcare is a provincial and municipal matter. But so is most of what's wrong with our housing supply right now, yet every Conservative is falling over themselves because 35-year-old men are "trapped in their parents' basements." God forbid we apply the same enthusiasm to helping women go back to work. Two ideas to start: scaling up training for thousands of early childcare educators like we did for nurses during the pandemic. And fast-tracking family reunification if grandparents looking to move here would be caring for kids. SPEAK OF THE DEVIL — Tory MP TOM KMIEC tabled a motion Thursday that called on the government to axe its First Time Home Buyers' Incentive program and "pursue new programs that exclusively increase the supply of housing." PROZONE For POLITICO Pro subscribers, our policy newsletter: Canada to ramp up oil and gas exports. In other headlines for Pros: — BlackRock CEO: Russian aggression 'put an end' to globalization as we know it. — Canada points to Europe to explain why its green bond excludes nuclear. — Gina McCarthy says Russian invasion won't distract Biden from clean energy agenda. — Does Trudeau plan to stick around? — G-7 leaders pledge action to address food shortages caused by war. MEDIA ROOM — At The Line, KEN BOESSENKOOL coins a new phrase — strong, stable, national minority Liberal government — and explains what it means for Tories. — "Not for the first time, the west is mistaking its own unity for a global consensus." That's EDWARD LUCE, writing in the Financial Times. — Why has the Kremlin held back from unleashing its full hacking might against Ukraine? POLITICO's MAGGIE MILLER has some theories. — CBC's ELISE VON SCHEEL got her hands on a recording of embattled Alberta Premier JASON KENNEYmaking his case for staying in the game. Kenney's overarching point? He stands in the way of the lunatic fringe: "PRESTON MANNING used to say that a bright light attracts a few bugs, well, there's more than a few bugs attracted to us, this party, right now." HOUSE BUSINESS 1 p.m. Indigenous Services Minister PATTY HAJDU and a gang of departmental officials will be talking supplementary estimates at the House Indigenous and northern affairs committee. 1 p.m. Veterans ombudsperson NISHIKA JARDINE will give a briefing to the House veterans affairs committee. 1 p.m. The House status of women committee will continue its study of intimate partner and domestic violence. 1 p.m.Quantum computing is the order of the day at the House industry committee. 1 p.m. Vice Admiral CRAIG BAINES , Commander of the Royal Canadian Navy, headlines the witness list as the House government operations committee digs into the national shipbuilding strategy. Playbookers Birthdays: HBD to ETHEL BLONDIN-ANDREW and former Conservative MP JEFF WATSON. … LOYOLA HEARN, former MP, Cabinet minister and ambassador to Ireland, also celebrates today. … Saturday birthdays: B.C. MLA SHEILA MALCOLMSON, Conservative MP MARK STRAHL. … Sunday celebrations: Sen. ROBERT BLACK. Spotted:KATE GRAHAM's No Second Chances — in book form … MEGAN LESLIE, saluting "Citizen Tony" for going above and beyond to return her lost phone. … BERNIE SANDERS, tipping his cap to the NDP. BOB RAE, quoting the late LEONARD COHEN at the U.N. General Assembly: "There are no perfect offerings/There is a crack in everything/That's where the light gets in." From the ethics files: Tory MP DANE LLOYD's most recent disclosure lists his presidency of the Robert Borden Foundation, an education-focused initiative that invests "in the education and cultivation of godly leaders of Christian character who will demonstrate traditional virtue in the marketplaces of today and those of the future." Movers and shakers: Alberta NDP MLAs (and former Cabinet ministers) SHANNON PHILLIPS and KATHLEEN GANLEY met with Coalition for a Better Future co-chairs LISA RAITT and ANNE MCLELLAN. None other than their party leader, RACHEL NOTLEY, liked the post on LinkedIn. Media mentions:ALISON MAHannounced her new gig: politics editor at the Toronto Star, based in Ottawa. … ADRIAN HAREWOOD will no longer anchor the CBC Ottawa evening news. He's focusing on work at Carleton University. TRIVIA Thursday's answer: On March 24, 1975, a private member's bill received royal assent establishing the beaver as the official symbol of Canada. Props to KEVIN COLBOURNE, PETER MCKINNEY, SEAN WEBSTER, BOB GORDON, JOHN ECKER, SCOTT LOHNES, JOHN GUOBA, WILLIAM PRISTANSKI, STEPHANIE SPERONI, ROBERT MCDOUGALL. Friday's question: Name the first Indigenous woman elected to Canada's Parliament and the first to serve as a federal Cabinet minister. Send your answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Have a petition you want signed? A cause you're promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Alejandra Waase to find out how: awaase@politico.com. Playbook wouldn't happen without Luiza Ch. Savage and editor Sue Allan.   Follow us on Twitter Nick Taylor-Vaisey @TaylorVaisey Sue Allan @susan_allan Andy Blatchford @AndyBlatchford Maura Forrest @MauraForrest Zi-Ann Lum @ziannlum POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters Follow us

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