The GOP push to Ukraine-proof Taiwan

What's next in U.S.-China relations.

Mar 03, 2022 View in browser   By Phelim Kine Protesters display placards in front of the Representative Office of the Moscow-Taipei Coordination Commission to protest against Russia's military invasion of Ukraine on February 25, 2022 in Taipei, Taiwan. | Lam Yik Fei/Getty Images Hi China Watchers. As Russian forces pound Ukrainian cities, GOP lawmakers are taking the lead in demanding that Kharkiv today isn't Taipei tomorrow. We'll also look at MIKE POMPEO 's spot on the Chinese embassy's "very negative" list, and roll out a helpful lexicon of Chinese Foreign Ministry-speak on Ukraine. And in this week of historical milestones in the U.S.-Taiwan relationship — the 50th anniversary of the Shanghai Communique and the 75th anniversary of Taiwan's 2/28 Massacre — we go deep on U.S.-Taiwan in our latest author conversation in "One Book, Three Questions." Got a book to recommend? Tell me about it at pkine@politico.com. Let's get to it. — Phelim The Biden administration's hard lessons from Russia's Ukraine invasion have produced sharp messaging for the People's Republic of China: Hands off Taiwan. Biden on Monday dispatched aheavyweight A-team of five former senior U.S. security and defense officials, helmed by MIKE MULLEN , former chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to meet with senior members of PresidentTSAI ING-WEN's government. Also Monday, KURT CAMPBELL, the National Security Council's coordinator for Indo-Pacific affairs, assured a crowd at a German Marshall Fund event that the U.S. can and will balance strategic focus on both Europe and the Indo-Pacific. But images of tank columns bearing down on Kyiv are catalyzing GOP lawmakers to demand that the U.S. drop the gloves and go all-in on providing Taiwan whatever's necessary to deter a Chinese invasion or ensure its failure. Those demands are creating a partisan fault line that could make a candidate's position on Taiwan a key issue in the 2022/2024 electoral cycles. "President Biden's refusal to sanction Russia prior to their publicly known invasion of Ukraine, or to have a package of sanctions ready to sign the moment an invasion began, was a grave miscalculation. Biden should learn from this and take appropriate steps to protect Taiwan," Sen. MARSHA BLACKBURN (R-Tenn.), a member of the Senate Armed Service Committee, said in a statement. "The US government should increase sales of military equipment to Taiwan focused on deterring a potential PRC invasion. It would also be prudent to consider stationing naval assets near the Taiwan Strait." Blackburn isn't alone in linking Taiwan to Ukraine. "As we support the courageous Ukrainian people, we cannot afford to take our eyes off other dangerous spots around the world … [and] should take immediate steps to deter [Chinese President] XI JINPING and the Chinese Communist Party from further aggression in Taiwan," Sen. TODD YOUNG (R-Ind.) tweeted Wednesday. That rhetoric explicitly recognizes the dire regional consequences of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. "Compared to Ukraine, Taiwan is more geo-strategically important because it's the maritime lifeline of Japan and Korea [with] 90 percent of Japan's oil and 76 percent of [Japan and Korea's] LNG having to pass through the waters around Taiwan," said SU TZU-YUN, an analyst at Taiwan's Institute for National Defense and Security Research. Not unlike Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN's statements about Ukraine, China views Taiwan as "an inalienable part" of its territory — a position that the U.S. "acknowledges" rather than formally recognizes or endorses. "The lessons from the Russia-Ukraine conflict are that Russia was repeatedly emphasizing [pre-invasion] that they needed some kind of protection for Russian strategic interests," said ANDREW NIEN-DZU YANG, former Taiwan defense minister and adjunct assistant professor at National Sun Yat-sen University. "[Beijing] will continue to emphasize … that moving away from China and declaring our independence or conducting a referendum will force China to take action." An intensifying Chinese campaign of military intimidation toward Taiwan has dismayed the U.S. and regional allies. In March 2021, the outgoing head of the U.S. Indo-Pacific command, Adm. PHIL DAVIDSON, warned of a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan "in the next six years." On the same day Putin invaded Ukraine, nine Chinese military aircraft violated Taiwan's air defense identification zone. China has expressed concern over U.S. moves in recent years that Beijing has interpreted as encouragement for Taiwanese pro-independence advocates. China calls those moves a violation of long-standing bilateral agreements on Taiwan's relationship to the U.S., as enshrined in the Three Communiqués issued jointly by the two countries from 1972 to 1982. Chinese Foreign Minister WANG YI on Monday used the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the Shanghai Communique inked by President RICHARD NIXON and Chairman MAO ZEDONG to berate the U.S. for allegedly "encouraging and supporting 'Taiwan independence' moves." U.S. lawmakers have further clarified the U.S. relationship with Taiwan via the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, which commits the U.S. to "resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion" against Taiwan. The Reagan administration's Six Assurances obligates arms sales for Taiwan's defense. Mullen nodded to those commitments Wednesday in Taipei by declaring that the U.S. "will continue to oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo" across the Taiwan Strait. But Biden's declaration at a CNN town hall in October that the U.S. will defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion has heightened Chinese concerns: "Yes, we have a commitment to do that," Biden told host Anderson Cooper. White House spokesperson JEN PSAKI scrambled to refute speculation that Biden had ended the long-standing policy of "strategic ambiguity" regarding a U.S. response to a Chinese attack on the self-governing island. Taiwan isn't fooled. "If we listen carefully to the statements by senior military officials or defense officials in the Pentagon, I think there's no ambiguity at all — the United States is highly committed to peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait area," Taiwanese Foreign Minister JOSEPH WU said at a virtual event at the McCain Institute last month. There are calls in Taiwan for the U.S. to ditch strategic ambiguity. "Washington has arguably moved toward 'constructive clarity'… [and] could consider open security cooperation with Taiwan and a clear statement that it will deter Chinese aggression by force," Su said. The State Department insists that U.S.-Taiwan engagement remains moored to the principles agreed upon by Nixon and Mao in 1972. "Our security relationship with Taiwan is consistent with our 'one-China' policy. We will continue to provide defense articles and services to Taiwan commensurate with the PRC's threat to Taiwan," a State Department official said in a statement. GOP lawmakers say that's inadequate. "Our adversaries in both the Putin regime and the CCP are trying to justify their territorial aggression and belligerence through false historical claims," Rep. MICHAEL MCCAUL (R-Texas) said in a statement to China Watcher. "The administration must show the CCP that we won't tolerate violence based on their lies, that Taiwan's security, economy, and democracy are core national security interests for the U.S., and that we are drawing Taiwan more tightly into the family of democracies." McCaul wants the administration to bolster Taiwan's capacity to wage asymmetric warfare, which involves the deployment of unconventional tactics and weapons to offset China's advantage in the size of its military forces. Young urges Congress to provide the Taiwanese military anti-ship missiles to "send a message of deterrence of Beijing to what will await if they invade Taiwan." Blackburn wants to hit the People's Liberation Army's supply chains by sanctioning suppliers of materials or equipment that facilitate PLA Air Force harassment of Taiwan. Sens. RICK SCOTT (R-Fla.), KEVIN KRAMER (R-N.D.) and JOHN KENNEDY (R-La.) have also made the connection between Ukraine and Taiwan with the Wednesday launch of their "Deterring Communist Chinese Aggression Against Taiwan Through Financial Sanctions Act." The bill, which echoes elements of Sen. DAN SULLIVAN's (R-Alaska) S.T.A.N.D. With Taiwan Act, proposes "devastating financial sanctions" against China if it invades Taiwan. The mere demonstration effect of sanctions imposed on Russia may deter Xi's Taiwan ambitions. "[Xi is] watching the penalty box Putin is building for himself and thinking he doesn't want a similar one constructed for China, although doing so would be vastly harder for the global economy," said retired U.S. Navy Adm. JAMES STAVRIDIS, who served as a NATO Supreme Allied Commander. Meanwhile, expect GOP lawmakers to make a drastic reinterpretation of the U.S.-Taiwan relationship a key foreign policy election issue in the coming months. "Taiwan is a free and independent nation, and the USA should treat it as such," Blackburn said. TRANSLATING WASHINGTON — BIDEN'S SOTU GIVES CHINA SHORT SHRIFT: President Biden sidelined China in his State of the Union speech. Biden gave China just three brief mentions referencing bilateral competition, infrastructure and R&D, but avoided hot topics, including trade or military tensions in the Indo-Pacific. — BLINKEN: CHINA'S XINJIANG UGYHUR GENOCIDE ONGOING: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN reiterated Tuesday the administration's belief that China "continues to commit genocide and crimes against humanity" against Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities. Blinken called on MICHELLE BACHELET, U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, to release a long-delayed report on Xinjiang's human rights situation. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson WANG WENBIN said Wednesday that Blinken's comments sought to "smear and attack China by spreading lies." — USTR SEEKS U.S.-CHINA TRADE 'REALIGNMENT': The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative wants a "realigning" in U.S.-China trade to address China's "harmful trade and economic abuses," POLITICO's DOUG PALMER reported Tuesday (for Pros). USTR options include "further tariff exclusions as warranted," along with collaboration with allies "who also suffer harm from China's unfair trade and economic practices," USTR said in its annual report on the president's trade agenda.  — GRASSLEY WANTS TO REVIVE CHINA INITIATIVE: Sen. CHARLES GRASSLEY (R-Iowa) expressed "deep concern" Monday about the Justice Department's decision last week to discontinue the "China Initiative" investigation program. In a letter to Assistant Attorney General MATTHEW OLSEN, Grassley warned the program's closure will harm efforts at "detecting, deterring and punishing these ever-present threats from the Chinese Government." Rep. TED LIEU (D-Calif.) pushed back on that assertion. "I think Senator Grassley is referring to a completely different issue," Lieu said during a virtual briefing organized by the nonprofit Asian Americans Advancing Justice. "We absolutely should be cracking down on espionage and theft of corporate secrets but going after academics who were applying for non-classified public grants has nothing to do with espionage." — CONGRESSIONAL RIVALS CLASH ON CHINA CREDS: New Jersey GOP congressional candidate TOM KEAN's tough-on-China stance got battered in an op-ed fact check Sunday in the New Jersey Star-Ledger co-written by Chinese dissidents JIANLI YANG and TENG BIAO. Teng and Yang referenced financial disclosures revealing Kean's investment in China's online commerce firm Alibaba Group, which they allege "has deep ties to the Chinese Communist Party's repressive policies." Kean's campaign said Teng and Yang, who self-identify as supporters of Kean's rival Rep. TOM MALINOWSKI (D-N.J.), overlooked his extensive Chinese investments. "Before serving in Congress, [Malinowski] broke his ethics pledge while at the State Department and held an investment in a Chinese insurance company from which he personally made thousands of dollars," DAN SCHARFENBERGER, Kean's campaign manager, told China Watcher in a statement Tuesday. "As of his last personal financial disclosure he still owns over $100K worth of investments in Chinese companies while serving on the House Foreign Affairs Committee." Malinowski's campaign returned fire on Wednesday. "Tom Kean Jr. claims he's tough on China while investing in one of the Chinese Communist Party's biggest enablers," NAREE KETUDAT , Malinowski's spokesperson, said in a statement. "Investments in Chinese companies are not all bad, but [Alibaba Group] collaborates with the Chinese police to silence dissent and build a surveillance state." Stay tuned. Hot from the China Watchersphere A sign in downtown Taipei welcoming former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to Taiwan that he tweeted on Tuesday is pictured. | Mike Pompeo/Twitter — EMBASSY PEEVED AT POMPEO TAIWAN TRIP: Former Secretary of State MIKE POMPEO is in Taiwan this week and the Chinese embassy in D.C. is not happy about it. Pompeo's Taiwan visit made the list of items, including recent U.S. arms sales to the self-governing island, that Chinese embassy spokesperson LIU PENGYU at a Monday media briefing termed "very negative moves from the U.S. side." Pompeo declined to comment but tweeted his approval on Tuesday of a Taipei billboard welcoming him to Taiwan. — CHINA SLAMS U.S. HUMAN RIGHTS RECORD: China's State Council Information Office on Monday published its annual report on "notorious" human rights abuses in the U.S. The 9,420-word document concludes that rights abuses in the U.S. worsened in 2021 due to factors, including "political manipulation" fueling Covid-19 deaths, gun violence and a "fake democracy [that] trampled on people's rights." The State Department didn't respond to a request for comment. — SUNY SHUTTERS CONFUCIUS INSTITUTES: The State University of New York has quietly closed all of its Chinese government-backed Confucius Institutes in recent months. Authorities at the University at Albany, University at Buffalo, Binghamton University, Stony Brook University and Nassau Community College have shuttered their Confucius Institutes due to concerns that those relationships could derail "access to critical federal research funding," Albany's Times Union newspaper reported Sunday. Provisions of the National Defense Authorization Act deny Department of Defense funding to universities that host a Confucius Institute. "Not all academic collaboration with China carries risk," CRAIG SINGLETON , senior China fellow at the nonprofit Foundation for Defense of Democracies said in a statement. "But that cannot be said for Confucius Institutes, nor certain STEM-related research partnerships that exist between U.S. universities and Chinese schools that directly contribute to China's military-industrial complex." Translating China — CHINA'S RUSSIA-UKRAINE INVASION LEXICON: Senior Chinese officials were aware of Russia's intentions to invade Ukraine in early February, The New York Times reported Wednesday. That clearly gave China's Foreign Ministry time necessary to formulate the verbal contortions it trots out to balance China's Russian alliance, boilerplate avocations of support for "sovereignty" and concerns about the invasion's impact on China. We've taken a stab at decoding some of these rhetorical efforts. If you have your own favorites, please share them at pkine@politico.com. Foreign Ministry: "The abrupt deterioration of the situation in Ukraine." Meaning: The Russian invasion of Ukraine. Foreign Ministry: "Exercise restraint and avoid further escalation of the situation." Meaning : "What happened to that speedy 'decapitation strategy' Putin promised?!" Foreign Ministry: "We recognize the special historical complexities surrounding the Ukraine issue and understand Russia's legitimate security concerns." Meaning : "We'll say this about Russia's Ukraine invasion, so Putin has the right lines for if/when we invade Taiwan." Foreign Ministry: "The current situation is not what we want to see." Meaning: "Putin told us Kyiv would be a cakewalk like Crimea." Foreign Ministry: "We hold that the Cold War mentality should be completely discarded." Meaning: "This is all the fault of the United States." Foreign Ministry: "Sanctions are never effective means to solve any problem." Meaning: "Don't let Russia-targeted sanctions disrupt Russia-China trade. Also, don't think you can bully us that way." Foreign Ministry: "China and Russia are comprehensive strategic partners of coordination." Meaning: "That joint statement declaring unbridled friendship with Moscow happened before they invaded." — CHINESE NETIZENS REJECT OFFICIAL UKRAINE NARRATIVE: Chinese online commentary about Russia's invasion of Ukraine reflects a diversity of opinions that challenge the ruling Chinese Communist Party's assertions of Russian justification for a "special military operation." Online commentators have criticized the invasion, including a viral posting of an essay titled "All Those Cheering for War are Idiots," an analysis published Friday by China Digital Times editor JOSEPH BROUWER revealed. Another popular post, captioned "normal people in war," criticized a perceived lack of empathy among online commentators about the invasion's human toll. Some of the less-savory commentary attached to that post objectified Ukrainian women to the extent that Weibo "began censoring searches for 'Ukraine' and 'pretty women.'" One Book, Three Questions The cover of the book "Green Island" by Shawna Yang Ryan is pictured. | Alfred A. Knopf/ Penguin Random House The Book: Green Island The Author: SHAWNA YANG RYAN is the author of the novels "Water Ghosts" and "Green Island," an American Book Award winner. She directs the creative writing program at the University of Hawai'i at Mānoa. What is the most important takeaway from your book? The novel, based in historical fact, follows 20th century events from the Taiwanese point of view. It demonstrates how Taiwan's story depended so much on other countries' political whims, but still developed into an independent democracy. For example, after WWII, Taiwan was held up by the U.S. as "Free China," as opposed to Mao's "Red China," so the U.S. was willing to overlook the fact that the ruling Kuomintang party was actually authoritarian, and the island was under martial law. What was the most surprising thing you learned while researching and writing this book? The parallels between [Taiwan dictator] CHIANG KAI-SHEK 's and Mao Zedong's methods of cruelty and crushing dissent surprised me. This research was my first personal encounter with widespread trauma, and with a violent history that had been systemically and officially suppressed. I was also surprised that Taiwan emerged from the White Terror/martial law era with a functioning society in which oppressor and oppressed could live together. (Though a current transitional justice process is attempting to address long-standing wounds.) What does your book tell us about the trajectory and future of U.S.-China relations? Taiwan should be known on its own terms, but it is the linchpin of U.S.-China relations. The novel dramatizes Taiwan's exit from the U.N., Nixon's 1972 China visit and Carter's severing of relations with Taiwan. Incorporating U.S. policy into the plot demonstrates that the U.S., China, and Taiwan are — for now at least — inextricably bound. It's imperative for the U.S. to adhere to its 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, which explicitly states that the U.S. relationship with the PRC "rests upon the expectation that the future of Taiwan will be determined by peaceful means." Thanks to: Ben Pauker, Matt Kaminski, Doug Palmer, digital producer Setota Hailemariam and editor John Yearwood. Do you have tips? Chinese-language stories we might have missed? Would you like to contribute to China Watcher or comment on this week's items? Email us at chinawatcher@politico.com.   Follow us

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