The state of the pandemic is confusing

Tomorrow's conversation, tonight. Know where the news is going next.

Mar 01, 2022 View in browser   By Sarah Owermohle With help from Renuka Rayasam A local resident is tested for Covid-19 at a free testing site at Farragut Square in Washington, D.C. | Alex Wong/Getty Images WHAT COLOR IS YOUR PANDEMIC? President Joe Biden is wary to declare a new chapter in the coronavirus pandemic during his State of the Union speech tonight, burned by a premature declaration of "independence" last July, weeks before the Delta variant triggered hospitalization surges and breakthrough cases, people familiar with the speech planning told Nightly. Some areas of the country, primarily in the South and Midwest, are still struggling with low vaccination rates, fueling the possibility of new variants or surges that send more people to the hospital. Add it all up? The state of the pandemic is pretty confusing for most Americans. There are virtually two Americas right now, a senior administration official told me last week on the eve of a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data overhaul. One America: largely vaccinated communities where even if Omicron is spreading, transmission is declining from peak rates, and hospitalizations remain low. The other America remains in the red as communities or even entire states (West Virginia) grapple with low vaccination rates, persistent hospitalizations and a scarcity of beds to treat people. A recent CDC reassessment of coronavirus risk saw much of the country moved into yellow and green low- and medium-transition zones overnight, highlighting the lower-risk phase of the pandemic where many counties find themselves. "We are in a phase where the virus no longer disrupts our life. It no longer makes us afraid every day … We're in a state of being able to get back to normal," the senior official said. "The caveat will always be: We must be prepared that we may get another variant. The public health message has to be reiterated, even though the country may be tired of hearing it." That leaves the average person in a quandary, even if they are in a "green" low transmission zone, calculating their risk and comfort level on a personal basis. And many people are understandably conflicted about when and where to don masks. A new Kaiser Family Foundation survey finds many Americans are ready to return to normal but remain worried about rolling back mask mandates and other restrictions. Those who are concerned cite risks of Covid resurgence and the persistent threat for immunocompromised and chronically ill people, who could still have severe coronavirus infections. But more than 60 percent of respondents also worry what continued restrictions will do to childrens' mental health and local businesses' viability. "There are people who will always be safer in certain environments wearing a mask — people who are very high risk for severe illness, for example," said Erica Johnson, a Johns Hopkins doctor who chairs the Infectious Disease Board of the American Board of Internal Medicine. "I think it is imperative that we all do not make judgments about what people's individual choices are." That said, many people with chronic illnesses and immunocompromised conditions are unhappy with CDC's pivot, arguing that choices aren't personal when they could put people at risk. "Even as some jurisdictions lift masking requirements, we must grapple with the fact that millions of people in the U.S. are immunocompromised, more susceptible to severe Covid outcomes, or still too young to be eligible for the vaccine," American Medical Association President Gerald Harmon said in a statement. "In light of those facts, I personally will continue to wear a mask in most indoor public settings, and I urge all Americans to consider doing the same," especially in pharmacies, grocery stores and other frequented public places, he said. That warning lands as the White House and the Capitol roll back masking requirements. Dozens if not hundreds of lawmakers could attend Biden's speech unmasked tonight. It's possible that the people ripping off their masks now will be advised to fish them out again during a new surge. CDC Director Rochelle Walensky tried to paint that as an easy option in a call with reporters last week: "We want to give people a break from things like mask-wearing when our levels are low, and then have the ability to reach for them again should things get worse in the future." But the reality could be far more complicated. Many Republicans still complain about the Biden administration's restoration of mask guidance last summer as the Delta variant reared its head. Biden officials and people familiar with the discussions told POLITICO's Adam Cancryn and me last week that they were resistant to ever letting the president declare the pandemic "over." Instead, said one official, the local and state patchwork of realities will continue — and evolve. No real finish line is in sight, particularly if the virus becomes a regular, or endemic, part of our lives. That robs Biden of a "We did it!" moment, more than a year after he assumed office promising to end the pandemic. But it doesn't mean things aren't looking up. We live in a new world of safe and accessible coronavirus vaccines and treatments. Messenger RNA vaccines can be altered if new variants evade the original regimens. The administration is expected to unveil a roadmap for returning to normal on Wednesday. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight's author at sowermohle@politico.com, or on Twitter at @owermohle.   SUBSCRIBE TO NATIONAL SECURITY DAILY : Keep up with the latest critical developments from Ukraine and across Europe in our daily newsletter, National Security Daily. The Russian invasion of Ukraine could disrupt the established world order and result in a refugee crisis, increased cyberattacks, rising energy costs and additional disruption to global supply chains. Go inside the top national security and foreign-policymaking shops for insight on the global threats faced by the U.S. and its allies and what actions world leaders are taking to address them. Subscribe today.     What'd I Miss? — European plan to donate fighter jets to Ukraine collapses: Over the course of a confusing 48 hours, the EU announced it had brokered an arrangement for member states to allow Ukrainian pilots to start flying their used Russian fighter planes, only to have those countries deny there was any such deal even as Kyiv trumpeted the impending arrival of the jets. — Ukrainian ambassador to the U.S. to attend Biden's State of the Union: Oksana Markarova will attend the State of the Union address as a guest of first lady Jill Biden, the White House announced this afternoon. People wave Ukrainian flags in Lafayette Square near the White House. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images — McConnell clashes with Rick Scott over agenda: Mitch McConnell and Senate Republican leaders are warning Rick Scott that his agenda for the GOP could expose the party to unnecessary attacks this fall , a significant intra-party rebuke for the Florida senator. The Senate minority leader, who has declined thus far to release a GOP agenda, advised Scott at a GOP leadership meeting on Monday afternoon that his 11-point proposal gave Democrats ammunition for millions of dollars of ads in the midterms, according to multiple people briefed on the exchange. Though he chairs Senate Republicans' campaign arm, Scott defended himself by saying he released the agenda in his role as a rank-and-file senator, not as a statement of party plans. The meeting lasted nearly an hour, and Scott's recess-week agenda introduction dominated the discussion. — Wisconsin GOP's 2020 report embraces fringe election decertification theory: A draft report for a GOP-run investigation of the 2020 election in Wisconsin, authored by a former state Supreme Court justice, embraces the fringe theory that election results could be decertified after the fact — advancing former President Donald Trump's calls to overturn an election he lost well over a year ago. Former state Supreme Court Justice Michael Gableman for months has been conducting a probe of the 2020 election, authorized by state Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, one of the most powerful Republicans in the state. — California State Bar probes Trump-connected attorney over 2020 election role: The California State Bar revealed today that it has been investigating whether attorney John Eastman violated the law or ethics rules in advising Trump on how to contest the results of the 2020 election . Chief Trial Counsel George Cardona said the legal overseer has been examining Eastman's actions since September of last year. Eastman could potentially be stripped of his ability to practice law in California as a result of the investigation.   DON'T MISS CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO's new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE.     Nightly Number 41 percent The percentage of Americans who approve of the job Biden is doing, alongside 56 percent disapproving, according to a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll. The numbers diverged even more when Americans were asked about the state of the country: Just 33 percent of Americans said the U.S. is going in the right direction, while 67 percent said the country is on the wrong track. Parting Words POLITICO's newsroom. LET'S GO TO WORK — Nightly's Renuka Rayasam emails: I walked into POLITICO's Rosslyn office today for the first time since December 2019. Like many companies, our newsroom delayed the return of in-person work several times. Eventually POLITICO settled on March 1 as our optional return to the office day. There were changes — a pile of surgical masks sits in a stack by the entrance, employees who don't come to the office frequently now have to book a desk, and there is an Italian restaurant in the lobby that I have no recollection of, even though my colleagues insist it opened shortly before my last visit. But for the most part it feels like an office frozen in time. The column covered with 2020 campaign posters ("BOOT EDGE EDGE"; "Gillibrand 2020") is still here. The sparkling water station still works. There is a purple flowchart with former Agriculture Sec. Sonny Perdue's name on a white board at the desk I booked. The experience made me feel like I, too, have been unlocked from a time warp. I worried that I wouldn't be able to find my way to the office without the help of my phone map app, but when I got out of the Metro train, muscle memory kicked in, pointing me to the right station exit, to the right building and guiding me through the hallways. As I walked past a floral shop that had been there since I first came to the building for an interview five years ago, a sense of intense déjà vu settled over me. For a moment, I felt like the past two or so years never happened, that I was transported back to the end of 2019, when I traveled from Texas to headquarters for the annual company holiday party. Of course they did happen. The biggest change in the newsroom was the lack of people. A large majority of the desks were unfilled this morning. You could say it's because the State of the Union means a late night for the staff, or we don't want to rely on the Metro's erratic schedule, or people are worried about the virus. But I also think it's because we have changed — commutes that were once routine are now unthinkable, temporary pandemic moves have become permanent, the once oppressive quiet of home now seems preferable to office bustle. I fear it means that even as we return to the office, we can never quite return to normal. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Chris Suellentrop @suellentrop Tyler Weyant @tweyant Renuka Rayasam @renurayasam Myah Ward @myahward   Follow us

To change your alert settings, please log in at https://www.politico.com/_login?base=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.politico.com/settings This email was sent to rouf@idiot.cloudns.cc by: POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA Please click here and follow the steps to unsubscribe.