THE NEW RED LINES FIRST U.S.-CHINA PROXY WAR? If China agrees to a Russian request for arms and economic assistance, as claimed by U.S. officials, that would make a direct lie out of China's long-standing policy to support the territorial sovereignty of independent countries and turn this into a full superpower authoritarian vs. democracies proxy war. The request indicates a terrible state of supply and defense manufacturing for the Russian armed forces. If Beijing were to agree to the request, it would mean " China would open itself to substantial sanctions and make itself a pariah ; to refuse would keep open the possibility of at least selective cooperation with US and West. Defining moment for Xi, China, and 21st century," said the Council on Foreign Relations' Richard Haass. Reasons for Chinese restraint: — Beijing has been sending mixed messages: Last week it declined to supply civilian aircraft parts to Russian airlines, citing sanctions; Foreign Minister Wang Yi also called Kyiv last week with an offer to mediate. — Russia is messing with China's Belt and Road interests when it blasts Ukraine infrastructure. — Hong Kong stocks had their worst trading day in 14 years on Monday: down 7 percent on the back of the news that Beijing could arm Moscow, and high Covid numbers. All the same, Beijing officials and media continue to back Russian narratives about the conflict. (The German Marshall Fund is maintaining a dashboard monitoring state-sponsored narratives). Xinhua News Agency's Ming Jinwei, in a leaked Weibo post, wrote that Beijing's assumption is "China has to back Russia up with emotional and moral support while refraining from treading on the toes of the United States and European Union," in order to secure Russian support for a Taiwan takeover. RUSSIA'S NEW FINANCIAL THREATS CORPORATE ARRESTS AND ASSET SEIZURES: Russian prosecutors have issued warnings to Western companies in Russia, threatening to arrest corporate leaders there who criticize the government and seize assets of companies that withdraw from the country, the Wall Street Journal reported. DEBT TO BE PAID IN RUBLES: "Anton Siluanov, Russia's finance minister, said on Sunday that it was "absolutely fair" the country would make all of its sovereign debt payments in rubles until Western sanctions are lifted. Moscow is scheduled to make a combined $117 million in interest payments this Wednesday, per the Financial Times. UKRAINE'S CYBER SKILLS: Want to know why Russia's cyberwar seems so lame? Part of the answer lies in Ukraine's hacking community, which is fully mobilized: our own Laurens Cerulus talked to some of the key players. NEW LINES OF FIRE As it becomes increasingly obvious that Vladimir Putin doesn't have any off-ramps that allow him to save face and that Ukraine and NATO allies to get something close to what they want, it's only natural that debate turns to which other weapons, civilians and countries might get sucked into the conflict. Civilians: The Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights says its list of confirmed casualties is 596 killed and 1,067 injured , but that it considers this number a low estimate. With millions on the move (over 2.8 million have now fled Ukraine), and Russia continuing indiscriminate bombing, anyone is a target. Weapons: You don't need a Ph.D. in war theory to realize that biological and chemical weapons are the immediate risk, followed by tactical nuclear weapons. Would use of those weapons be a red line for NATO? Would it be possible to avoid escalation — or a World War — if they were used? Poland's President Andrzej Duda said they would be a"game changer." "Putin may be inclined to up the stakes and use chemical weapons — when you have already committed one war crime, it's easier to contemplate another — to try and break Ukrainian resistance," writes Mark Galeotti, author of The Weaponization of Everything. David French explains Putin's tactical nuclear weapons advantage. Territory: Russia is now bombing sites next to NATO borders. On Sunday, that included raining roughly 30 cruise missiles onto a military base used by Western volunteers and training missions around 10 miles from the Ukraine-Poland border, which also means that refugee corridors are at risk of attack. Tiny Moldova (not in NATO) is vulnerable, while Putin also cannot tolerate an opposition takeover of Belarus — analysts think he may formally annex the puppet regime that already does his bidding. RELIGION FINDS THE WAR RUSSIAN ORTHODOX SCHISM BEGINS: The Amsterdam branch of the Russian Orthodox church can't live with church chief Patriarch Kirill — a trusted ally of Vladimir Putin — declining to condemn the war, so it's announced that it will leave the church. Meanwhile, more than 280 Russian Orthodox priests and church officials have signed an open letter expressing their opposition to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. QUOTABLE "Let there be a real and decisive focus on negotiation, and let the humanitarian corridors be effective and safe. In the name of God, I ask you: stop this massacre!"— Pope Francis UKRAINE GLOBAL IMPACTS EUROPE'S REFUGEE TIME BOMB: So far, so good. Despite more than 2.5 million refugees flooding into the EU from Ukraine, there's been remarkably little logistical mess, or political backlash. Fleeing Ukrainians also have breathing room: The EU has activated its Temporary Protection Directive, which gives Ukrainians the right to live and work in the EU for the next year (renewable a further two years, if needed). But what happens a few months down the line.… It's relatively easy to take people in temporarily, but it's harder to uninvite them. What happens when Europeans who have opened their home — or holiday home — to desperate families start to want them back? What happens when parents start to get frustrated with overcrowded schools? What happens when countries that border Ukraine get sick of shouldering 90 percent of the burden, while countries in Europe's south start trading insults about how northern Europeans are learning what they felt like during the EU's Syria refugee crisis. ALBANIA — INFLATION STREET PROTESTS: The anger is directed at rising food and fuel costs. The price of diesel jumped around 50 percent last week. Albania is yet to receive significant numbers of Ukrainian refugees, but the government has said it would welcome them. KAZAKHSTAN — IN AMERICAN TRADE CROSSHAIRS: First it was Belarus, which activists demanded be treated the same way as Russia for its support of the war against Ukraine. Now, with President Biden suspending normal trade relationswith Russia, Republican Reps. Adam Kinzinger, Eric Crawford and Maria Elvira Salazar have written to the U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai asking that Kazakhstan, a known Russian ally, not receive the same preferential trade treatment. HR 5544, on Kazakhstan's trading status, is currently being considered in the House. Letter here. SAUDI ARABIA — "I DO NOT CARE" ABOUT BIDEN, SAYS MBS: As gas prices rise, Washington is looking to secure its oil supplies, opening up talks with a range of regimes that range from unpleasant to evil. Checking in on the Saudi front, The Atlantic's Jeffrey Goldberg writes: "we asked the next king of Saudi Arabia (barring assassination or coup) whether he thinks Joe Biden misunderstands him. "Simply, I do not care," Mohammed bin Salman replied. "It's up to him to think about the interests of America." He then shrugged. We believe MBS: The Saudis executed 81 people on Saturday alone — they really don't care about global opinion, let alone American sensibilities. Read Graeme Wood's piece on MBS 3.0. PERSPECTIVES TERROR FOR ALL — UKRAINIANS DESCRIBE RUSSIAN TAKEOVER OF VILLAGES MEET LESLA VASYLENKO: She's the Ukrainian MP who will shoot to kill and not let us look away from the consequences of our choices. FOR THE WEST, THE WORST IS YET TO COME: So argues my former colleague Tom McTague. "Right now, the world's second-most powerful state, China, is committing genocide against its own people and dismantling the freedoms of a city of several million, but the West continues to trade with it almost as if nothing is happening. Even as Western governments busily sanction Russian oligarchs, they continue to let Saudi oligarchs buy up their companies, sports teams, and homes, despite the fact that their leader, according to U.S. intelligence, approved the butchering of a journalist in one of his embassies." PUTIN HAS KILLED GERMANY'S POST-WAR ASSUMPTIONS: You've read about Germany's reengagement with defense spending. But are you familiar with Germany's assumption that it owes Russia for the 26 million Russians who died at the hands of the Nazis. Yes, 26 million.
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