| | | | |  | | By Brakkton Booker | With help from Rishika Dugyala, Rebecca Kern and Teresa Wiltz
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President Joe Biden arrives to deliver remarks about Russia's "unprovoked and unjustified" military invasion of neighboring Ukraine on Feb. 24. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images | Recast family, we are coming to you as bloodshed and the humanitarian crisis deepen in Ukraine. It's also primary day in Texas, which will give the nation a preview of what is in store for the midterm elections. But we kick things off with a look ahead to President Joe Biden's State of the Union address. And with that, let's jump in. When Joe Biden delivers his first State of the Union address tonight, he'll be speaking to a pandemic-weary, war-averse nation souring on his presidency. A recent Washington Post-ABC News poll has his approval rating at 37 percent. Heading into the speech, White House officials were hoping to use the prime-time address as an opportunity to sell the American public on the administration's victories, reignite talks with lawmakers on elements of his stalled agenda – and assuage fears among his own party that the midterms will not be a shellacking. Those elements will remain in some form, but Russia's invasion of neighboring Ukraine , now in its sixth day, will be front and center. Biden will project himself as a man leading the global economic assault on Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, even if militarily, the U.S. remains on the sidelines. "He will talk about the steps we've taken to not only support the Ukrainian people with military and economic assistance but also the steps he's taken to build a global [coalition] imposing crippling financial sanctions on President Putin, his inner circle, and the Russian economy." White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters Monday.
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The chamber of the House of Representatives is seen at the Capitol on Feb. 28. | J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo | POLITICO's Sarah Ferris and Marianne LeVine point out today that Democrats are hoping the speech serves as a reset; they want Biden to make a forceful case for why they should maintain control of Congress. Democratic party officials acknowledge they've not done a sufficient job showing Americans how their leadership has prevented the U.S. from bigger financial calamity.
It's certainly a difficult task for Biden to accomplish when Americans are coping with the highest inflation rates since the early 1980s. We'll also be keeping an eye out to see how he talks about race, which remains a divisive topic in our national discourse. Critical race theory is the latest political boogeyman in fights over how history is taught in public schools – and it's emerged as a top campaign issue in this midterm cycle. Biden was still basking in the honeymoon phase of his presidency when he delivered his joint address right around his 100th day in office last year. At the time, he was trying to unite a nation just weeks removed from an insurrection that engulfed the U.S. Capitol, stressing that he wanted Republicans to work with the Democratic-led Congress to tackle everything from police reform to climate change. Things have not gone as planned – and his efforts were torpedoed with the help of members of his own party. Still, Republicans did cross the aisle on some things, from the nearly $2 trillion Covid-relief bill and the $1.2 trillion infrastructure measure signed into law late last year. Biden will surely tout those successes in his address. But it likely won't be enough for progressives like Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), who will deliver a SOTU response. Tlaib, a member of "The Squad," can be expected to urge President Biden to go bold.
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Rep. Rashida Tlaib, D-Mich., speaks at a campaign rally in Detroit in 2020. | AP Photo/Paul Sancya, File | And with the Republican response, we can expect Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds to bash the federal government's coronavirus response and highlight a new law that she says will "promote learning, not discriminatory indoctrination." Iowa is the latest state to hit back at teaching systemic racism in schools. But with the conflict in Ukraine, and its looming humanitarian crisis, it's likely that everything else will be background noise. Ukraine has muted response to Biden's historic nomination of federal appeals court judge Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court. Jackson, a left-leaning jurist, is expected to be confirmed, though the final tally is still unclear. Also unclear: whether any Republican senators will vote for her. Of course, their votes aren't needed, with Vice President Kamala Harris' tie-breaking vote.
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President Joe Biden arrives to introduce Ketanji Brown Jackson as his nominee to the U.S. Supreme Court on Feb. 25. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images | But Biden could use his speech to remind the nation why he selected her – and why this is the right moment for Jackson to ascend to the high court. This may be particularly welcoming for Democrats who can point to Biden delivering on a campaign promise to nominate the first Black woman to the Supreme Court. Judge Jackson starts her traditional in-person introductory meetings with senators this week, including with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell on Wednesday. We'll definitely be watching to see how this all plays out. All the best,
The Recast Team
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| Power dynamics are changing. With The Recast, you'll get a twice-weekly breakdown of how race and identity are the DNA of American politics and policy. Was this forwarded to you by a friend? Subscribe to the newsletter here.
| | | THE TEXAS SHOWDOWN
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A man passes an early voting poll site in February in San Antonio. | AP Photo/Eric Gay, File | The start of the 2022 midterm election season is officially underway today. With the next primary contest not until May, this will be our only glimpse, at least for a bit, of how the landscape is taking shape. Voters in Texas will cast ballots for their nominees for governor, attorney general and all of the state's 38 House seats. Texas is one of six states that gained seats following the 2020 Census, and it picked up two additional congressional districts. Here are a few of the congressional races we're keeping an eye on: Texas — 15th Congressional District This is a race that's become far more competitive in recent years. One big reason: It's now an open seat. The incumbent, Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, a three-term Democrat, announced months ago he's jumping to the nearby 34th District after fellow Democrat Rep. Filemon Vela announced he would retire. The reason for Gonzalez 's switch? Redistricting. The newly constituted 34th includes the border city of McAllen, which Joe Biden won by less than 2 percentage points in 2020. Under this new arrangement, Donald Trump would've won by almost 3 points.
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Republican Monica De La Cruz-Hernandez, running in the next general election for the 15th House congressional district, talks in her office in Alamo, Texas, in July 2021. | AP Photo/Eric Gay | Meanwhile, on the GOP side in this majority-Latino district, frontrunner Monica De La Cruz, who has secured endorsements from the former president, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, among others. The Democratic side is a little more difficult to predict. Leading candidates include businessman and attorney John Villarreal Rigney; Michelle Vallejo, an Army veteran and a small business owner who has been endorsed by former gubernatorial nominee Wendy Davis; and trial attorney Ruben Ramirez. Texas — 28th Congressional District All eyes are on the 28th District match-up. The district stretches from the outskirts of San Antonio to the Texas-Mexico border. Unlike the 15th District, this redrawn district has actually gotten bluer – if by just a few points. The real focus is on whether nine-term Rep. Henry Cuellar can keep his seat.
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Reporters question Rep. Henry Cuellar, D-Texas, a member of the House Appropriations Committee, for updates on President Joe Biden's domestic policy package. | AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite | He's kept a low profile since the FBI raided his home and office earlier this year. There's a chance he can win his primary on the strength of his name alone. But Jessica Cisneros , who is running to Cuellar's left, is hammering the embattled incumbent for being too conservative and opposing abortion access, and hinting that he's a corrupt politician.
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Democratic Congressional candidate Jessica Cisneros speaks at a rally in February in San Antonio. | AP Photo/Eric Gay | Cisneros has got the backing of some big-name progressives including Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, and New York Reps. Jamaal Bowman and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Texas — 30th Congressional District Texas state lawmaker Jasmine Crockett leads a crowded field in a race to represent this Dallas-area district and replace retiring 30-year member of Congress Eddie Bernice Johnson. Crockett has won endorsements from Johnson and the Bernie Sanders-aligned nonprofit Our Revolution. Last summer, she was part of the delegation of Texas Democrats who fled the state in protest over the Republican-led Legislature pushing for (and eventually passing) new, more restrictive voting laws.
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| This is a bright blue district, so whoever wins the primary is expected to win the seat come November. But with such a crowded field, a primary runoff is likely. For more insight into the Texas primary, check out our colleague Stephanie Murray's breakdown of other congressional races, plus an overview of the push progressives are attempting from POLITICO's Holly Otterbein and Elena Schneider.
| | | DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE
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The app of Facebook showing U.S. President Joe Biden speaking, is viewed on an smartphone in Moscow, Russia on Feb. 25. | AP Photo | Two weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine, Aquiles Córdova Morán, a Mexican politician with nearly 150,000 Facebook followers, took to Facebook to declare: "The entire Russophobic hysteria in the Western media is based on one blatant lie: Russia's impending invasion of Ukraine." The post garnered more than 41,000 shares, reports POLITICO tech policy reporter Rebecca Kern. It's just one example of the numerous Spanish-language posts on Facebook and YouTube spreading Kremlin-based propaganda and misinformation, according to Jacobo Licona, a disinformation research lead at Equis Labs, a Latinx-focused polling and research firm. In the past week, the Facebook page for RT en Español , Russia's Spanish-language state-run news site, saw nearly double the engagement than its daily average in the past month. The second-most shared post is a Feb. 24 video (with over 125,000 views) from Russia's defense minister falsely claiming Russia did not carry out offensives against Ukraine, according to Licona's data collected from CrowdTangle, the Meta-owned social-media analytics firm. Following Russia's invasion and pressure from politicians like Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), platforms have started to clamp down – with Facebook and YouTube demonetizing Russian state-run social media accounts and both platformsrestricting access to Russia-funded RT and Sputnik in Europe.
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| But similarly sweeping efforts aren't happening in majority Spanish-speaking countries – and Spanish-language Russian propaganda and misinformation continues to spread. Facebook spokesperson Kevin McAlister said the platform is removing Spanish-language content that could put people in imminent danger. But misleading posts – like Morán's – stay up, but with reduced distribution. Social media outlets "have not done nearly enough to permanently change their systems to help users sift through toxic lies," said Sacha Haworth, executive director of the Tech Oversight Project, a nonprofit funded by the Omidyar Network and Facebook co-founder Chris Hughes. Facebook whistleblower Frances Haugen said Facebook has under-resourced its non-English language content moderation work. Last year, she told Congress that about 87 percent of misinformation spending is on English language campaigns – but only about 9 percent of its users are English speakers.
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| "It seems that Facebook invests more in users who make them more money, even though the danger may not be evenly distributed based on profitability," she said. Meta's McAlister said a majority of Facebook's funds focus on fighting misinformation from outside the U.S, but didn't provide specific dollar amounts. Members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus sent letters to Facebook, YouTube, TikTok and Twitter in January urging them to be more aggressive in tackling misinformation, but Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) said their response was lackluster at best. "Everything they do in English should be mimicked in Spanish," Gallego told POLITICO.
| | | ICYMI @ POLITICO: THE UKRAINE INVASION EDITION WATCH: As President Biden was departing a White House celebration to mark the end of Black History Month, a reporter shouted a question asking if Americans should be concerned about the possibility of a nuclear war. Spoiler alert: Biden's answer was brief and without much elaboration.
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| MUST READ: Similar question, different answer. Many Americans first became aware of Fiona Hill, the no-nonsense American diplomat during the first impeachment hearings of her former boss, President Donald Trump. In a real coup for POLITICO, our very own Maura Reynolds caught up with Hill to ask if Putin is likely to resort to using nukes. Her (terrifying) answer: "Yes, he would." As a 40-mile Russian convoy approaches Ukraine's capital city and shelling continues in other parts of the nation, Oksana Markarova, Ukraine's ambassador to the U.S., pleaded with a bipartisan group of Senators for more aid, report POLITICO's Andrew Desiderio and Connor O'Brien. Talks among U.S. elected officials are ramping up about how to best support Ukraine and our European allies accepting the more than half a million refugees. A team of POLITICO reporters writes : "Talks about supplemental humanitarian aid for Ukraine are also taking place between Congress and the White House, and it's likely that funding will take more than a week to get approved, potentially delaying the shipment of critical aid."
| | | THE RECAST RECOMMENDS The way race is creeping into the discourse around the horrors in Ukraine has been interesting … and dismaying. MSNBC journalists Mehdi Hasan and Ayman Mohyeldin break down the craziness. Alonya Alonya is a Ukrainian rapper, whom some consider the best in the game in her home country. Here she is in happier times, spitting rhymes in "Big and Funny."
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| And here she is in a video released yesterday, urging her followers in other countries to help Ukraine. "I urge you all to unite as much as possible and not allow Russia to seize our country," she says. "Because after they will go to your home."
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| TikTok of the Day: The feed is giving everyone whiplash.
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