INTERVIEW — JONATAN VSEVIOV, ESTONIA'S FOREIGN MINISTRY SECRETARY GENERAL His mission in Washington this week : "Repeat and repeat that everything will change as a result of this war. There is no going back to February 23. We need to play an active role shaping that future." Is there an off-ramp? "We don't think that the Russians have changed their goals. They want Ukraine, they want to destroy the idea of a sovereign, independent Ukraine. There may be tactical off-ramps, strategically there is none, because they haven't changed." "Russia has attacked not just Ukraine, but the core principles upon which international and in particular European security has been built since 1975 — certain very generic key principles like the idea that we consider each other's existence as legitimate." Don't take the bait! Don't get spooked! "They (Moscow) are building political and diplomatic traps: pretending that there are negotiations underway with Ukrainians, hoping to lure at least some in the West to ease the sanctions pressure." "We should not be afraid of our own power. We should not get spooked just because somebody mentions the word nuclear. We're a nuclear alliance as well. We've been doing nuclear deterrence for 70 years, we know how to do it." Has Russia really tried to unleash its cyber capabilities yet? "It hasn't. I don't think we've overestimated their capabilities, I think we've kept them off-balance to a certain extent. They clearly also miscalculated regarding the West, they didn't expect to see such Western unity. But they have taken their time before … so the fact that a Russian move hasn't come doesn't mean that it's not in the works." Side notes: The world holds its breath for Russia's cyberwar and Russian hackers are putting pressure on U.S. firms, the FBI warned. What should Western governments do next? — Raise the cost of aggression: "This is a black or white situation: if aggression pays, there will be more aggression. Keep pushing on every front for as long as this aggression continues." — Hope and help: "We should be assisting Ukraine (and) giving hope to the Ukrainians on European Union membership. Everybody understands that no change will happen in the coming weeks or months, but it's important to keep the process open and keep our institutions relevant." Asked about a Marshall-style Plan for Ukraine: "It's a good idea. And you can help Ukraine achieve greater, for instance, interoperability with NATO." — More military power to NATO's eastern flank : "We don't have time: The decisions need to be taken now at this summit, and then, more importantly, at the NATO summit in Madrid (in May). We've done a number of things that are good, but there's a long way to go on this." INSTITUTIONS EU steps up its military coordination: The defense and foreign ministers of the European Union adopted a new security strategy at a joint meeting Tuesday, laying the groundwork to create a joint rapid response force of up to 5,000 troops, with Germany providing the "military core." The move is a major step toward integrating European defenses. Time to boot Russia from the U.N. Security Council? The tricky path of neutrality: Just as the war forces other countries to reconsider their traditional neutrality, Ukraine seems OK with signing up to it. It will be "relatively easy" for Ukraine and Russia to reach an agreement on NATO membership as officials in Kyiv seek negotiations with Moscow to end the war, said Alexander Rodnyansky, a Zelenskyy adviser, in an interview with POLITICO's Alex Wickham. Media outlets finding Russia's digital back doors to communicate with Russians. Use of virtual private networks, or VPNs, is skyrocketing. Great reporting by Sara Fischer on carbon-copy websites, encryption tools and other techniques. CHINA AND UKRAINE EXPLAINER VIDEO: China finds itself stuck between the White House and the Kremlin, but may soon be forced to choose a side, explains our White House bureau chief Jonathan Lemire. ECONOMY READY FOR AN OIL SHORTFALL? IEA analysis identified Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as the only major producers able to ramp up oil production if the war produces shortages because Russia can't or won't export enough. On Monday, Saudi Arabia signaled possible supply cuts due to attacks on its oil facilities by Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels. That could exacerbate an already tight market — especially since Saudi exports are currently going to China, according to the Eurasia Group think tank. Beijing is kingmaker in new oil deals: Increasing imports of Saudi oil improves Beijing's negotiating position with Moscow. China so far has proven willing to buy Russian oil, but only at steep discounts. Oil supply reshuffle? Most Middle Eastern oil currently flows to Asia, with most Russian supply going to Europe. Unless Western governments get Asian buyers to join a ban, the end result could see Russian oil flowing east, freeing up Middle East supply for the EU. READY FOR A RECESSION? The International Monetary Fund thinks you should be — and they'll be cutting their global growth forecast later this month, the Fund's Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said Tuesday. TRADE — U.S. AND U.K. RESUME TALKS: Two years after they broke off and eight months after the U.K.'s "fast-track" status to a trade deal expired. Don't expect another trade deal to emerge, but this is a sign that democracies recognize they need to keep these lines of communication open while fending off China and Russia. The hot topics in this week's talks are cooperation in labor rights, green protections and digital trade. Trans-Atlantic trade hits record high — despite no trade deal: That's according to a new survey from the American Chamber of Commerce to the EU and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Europe attracted 63 percent of total U.S. global investment in 2020-2021, and in 2021, trans-Atlantic trade in goods reached $1.1 trillion. PEOPLE VS. PLANET — A DATE FOR STOPPING FOSSIL FUEL EXTRACTION: A new report from the British Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research argues that wealthy countries should phase out fossil fuel extraction by 2034 to have a 50 percent chance of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees celsius. SANCTIONS — U.S. ADDS MORE VISA RESTRICTIONS ON CHINESE OFFICIALS: The Department of State is restricting visas for Chinese officials "for their involvement in repressive acts against members of ethnic and religious minority groups and religious and spiritual practitioners inside and outside of China's borders, including within the United States." No numbers or names were published. NORTH AMERICA — CROSS-BORDER CRIME COOPERATION: For the first time in a decade, the Canada-United States Cross-Border Crime Forum has convened to discuss criminal justice reform, cross-border smuggling, human trafficking and more. At the discussion, were U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland, U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas , Canada's Minister of Justice and Attorney General David Lametti and Public Safety Minister Marco Mendicino. In an interview with POLITICO's Joseph Gedeon, Mendocino said some of the key takeaways are that there will be a dedicated task force to fight gun trafficking, while we'll also see more modernized intelligence sharing. "We talked about the ways in which we can share intelligence and information to better understand how ideologically motivated extremism presents in our communities. We talked about the tools that exist currently to reduce and mitigate those threats," he said. WESTERN BALKANS — MAPPING CHINA'S RISE: In this project, published ahead of an April 1 EU-China summit, Vladimir Shopov examines what the European Council for Foreign Relations calls the "strong and multifaceted rise of China," which has been underplayed "due to a scarcity of reliable and accessible data points." ELECTIONS CANADA — TRUDEAU GETS A SUPPLY AND CONFIDENCE DEAL: Six months after Canada's national election, Prime Minister Trudeau's Liberal Party and the New Democratic Party havesealed a deal to allow the minority government to function until the next parliamentary term. What does the left-wing NDP get? The deal is "focused on growing our economy by creating green jobs that fight the climate crisis, making people's lives more affordable with housing and child care, and expanding and protecting our health care," Trudeau said. How the deal got done, in POLITICO's Ottawa Playbook. TIMOR-LESTE — HORTA FAVORED IN PRESIDENTIAL RUN-OFF: José Ramos-Horta won 47 percent of first round votes, more than double that of run-off rival Francisco Guterres, the incumbent president. UNITED STATES — THE NEW MID-TERM ELECTION MATH: Here's where we stand, following a bunch of court cases on congressional district maps (that mostly went Democrats' way), a botched Census count (which woefully undercounted minority groups, helping Republicans), and gerrymandering efforts from both sides (generally Republican-led but later matched by Democrats in states they control).
| 
Comments
Post a Comment