Will Biden get a Ukraine bounce?

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Mar 03, 2022 View in browser   By Sam Stein and Alex Thompson Presented by Facebook Welcome to POLITICO's West Wing Playbook, your guide to the people and power centers in the Biden administration.  Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Max In late January, BLAKE MASTERS, the PETER THIEL-acolyte GOP Senate candidate in Arizona, ridiculed the notion that America would involve itself in the crisis developing between Russia and Ukraine. "[I]nstead of trying to fix these crises here at home they're looking thousands of miles away to shore up Ukrainian democracy," Masters said. "They literally want to get involved in a land war in Asia in winter. It's like: how stupid can you be?" A month later, Masters was more comfortable with the stupid. In a Twitter post just hours before JOE BIDEN's State of the Union address, he offered a prescription for the type of U.S. engagement in Ukraine that he could support. "We should supply the Ukrainians as they fight for their country," he wrote. "We should support the Europeans as they get up off their knees. We should sanction Russia so that Putin and his cronies feel the consequences. And we should keep our own military out of this." What's notable about Masters' comments is not that his tune shifted. His campaign didn't respond to comment and there was, in fairness, a throughline to his statements: no direct military intervention. Rather, what stood out was that the ideas he was offering were, in essence, the approaches Biden had already adopted. The success of Biden's Ukraine policy can't possibly be determined just weeks into its application. But it's evident that, so far, he has hit something akin to the political sweet spot: a mix of aggressive and amplifying sanctions, the rallying of the international community, the shipment of military equipment to the frontlines and clear limits on U.S. military involvement. There have been criticisms. Some Republicans argue he should have acted sooner as a matter of deterrence. Others argue he should be more aggressive now, either through the adoption of a no-fly zone in Ukraine or the covert or overt use of force to stop Russian tanks from rolling over Kyiv. But the loudest of those voices are actually coming from the pundit class — not politicians. Even hawkish Republicans with no love for Biden, like Sen. MARCO RUBIO (R-Fl.), are echoing some of his specific points. "I think people have to understand what that means," Rubio said of a no-fly zone. "That means the willingness to shoot down Russian aircraft, and that would mean World War III." Considering the relatively wide consensus around Biden's approach, one would imagine he'd be enjoying something of a political bounce. But the polls indicate that while the public supports the components of Biden's Ukraine policy, they are mixed on his leadership. Data from the firm Data for Progress, shared exclusively with us, shows that 77 percent of respondents support sanctions directly against VLADIMIR PUTIN ; 72 percent support providing $600 million in military support to Ukraine; and even 57 percent support sending 7,000 troops to support European allies but not to Ukraine itself — all steps Biden has taken. By contrast, a paltry 45 percent of respondents approved of Biden's overall "response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine," while 48 percent did not approve. How to explain this delta? For one, as POLITICO-turncoat-turned-New York Times scribe BLAKE HOUNSHELL noted, the public historically rallies behind Republican presidents in the midst of war, more so than they do Democratic ones. And as my colleagues CHRIS CADELLAGO and LAURA BARRÓN LÓPEZ report , some Democrats think Biden needs to be more aggressive politically, not just in terms of touting his approach, but also chastising former President DONALD TRUMP and his ilk for being Putin apologists. But Democrats also suspect that Biden is suffering from whiplash among voters; that the fatigue felt over Covid hasn't been pushed aside by a national pride in standing up to Russia but, rather, is being reinforced by the stand being taken. "Americans agree with the president's policy and appreciate his leadership in rallying the world in support of Ukraine," said MARK MELLMAN, a longtime Democratic pollster. "But poll questions can be very blunt instruments. People — including the president — aren't happy with the outcome to date. Russian troops are still invading and killing. And that's what these polls are measuring." There's some evidence that the public's opinion of Biden's Ukraine stewardship is improving. Navigator Research, the progressive data firm, ran a dial group of State of the Union watchers and found that "net confidence" in Biden's ability to handle the crisis improved from net -31 to net +20. Prior to the speech, Reuters and Ipsos released data showing an eight and nine-point increase, respectively, in how Biden has been handling Russia and Ukraine. But the situation is fluid. And the question facing Biden and his team is what happens if the policy consensus they've built and the progress they've made unravels or turns into a slog. Mellman conceded that the current numbers could very well be the "high water mark" for Biden on the "particular question" of how he is handling the situation in Ukraine. But he was bullish that voter sentiment was more complimentary than the toplines suggest. "Part of my point is that these simple questions don't necessarily capture the full range of voters' views about his handling of this issue," he said. TEXT US — Are you MEGHA BHATTACHARYA, Doug Emhoff's former communications assistant who recently moved over to the West Wing? We want to hear from you (we'll keep you anonymous).  Or if you think we missed something in today's edition, let us know and we may include it tomorrow.  Email us at westwingtips@politico.com or you can text/Signal/Wickr Alex at 8183240098 or Max at 7143455427. A message from Facebook: Why Facebook supports updated internet regulations Paige is one of many experts working on privacy at Facebook—to give you more control over your information. Hear from Paige on why Facebook supports updating regulations on the internet's most pressing challenges, including federal privacy legislation.   POTUS PUZZLER From the University of Virginia's Miller Center  Which president told a friend that he was "not fit for this office"? YIKES! (Answer at the bottom.) The Oval MASKS OFF — In the wake of the new CDC masking guidance, White House staff and reporters are once again ditching their face masks, including in the president's Cabinet meeting this afternoon. It's not universal, however, as some staff and reporters continue to be masked. And not everyone is making their masking decision for Covid-related reasons. One reporter confessed to another that they were wearing a mask only to hide a pimple, per our EUGENE DANIELS. WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE WANTS YOU TO READ: Letters of support for SARAH BLOOM RASKIN 's nomination to be Federal Reserve's head of bank oversight, who faces ongoing resistance from Senate Republicans. Deputy press secretary CHRIS MEAGHER tweeted out one letter signed by former Treasury Secretary JACK LEW, former Treasury under secretary MARY MILLER, and former counselor to the Treasury secretary, ANTONIO WEISS. Meagher also shared another set of letters from academics at Yale, MIT, the University of Michigan and the Peterson Institute for International Economics. WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE DOESN'T WANT YOU TO READ: This POLITICO story from VICTORIA GUIDA on Federal Reserve Chair JEROME POWELL's acknowledgement, at a Senate hearing today, that spiking oil prices triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine could stoke already high inflation. In testimony to the Senate Banking Committee, Powell said Americans are going to see higher gas prices, while transportation and energy costs will also rise for businesses. "People will feel that certainly at the gas pump," Powell said, adding that could also bite into spending elsewhere and affect growth. "You would expect at least a little bit of lower economic activity."   SUBSCRIBE TO NATIONAL SECURITY DAILY : Keep up with the latest critical developments from Ukraine and across Europe in our daily newsletter, National Security Daily. The Russian invasion of Ukraine could disrupt the established world order and result in a refugee crisis, increased cyberattacks, rising energy costs and additional disruption to global supply chains. Go inside the top national security and foreign-policymaking shops for insight on the global threats faced by the U.S. and its allies and what actions world leaders are taking to address them. Subscribe today.     THE BUREAUCRATS INTERIOR POLITICAL HIRES — The Interior Department announced a bunch of new hires to their political team, including DAVID BALER for advance, LAURA BLOOMER in the solicitor's office, MICHAEL BRAIN in the Bureau of Reclamation as deputy commissioner, KATHERINE PUSTAY CURRIE to be deputy infrastructure coordinator, GARY GOLD as the deputy assistant secretary for water and science, CATHERINE MING as scheduler, and JOAN MOONEY to be principal deputy assistant secretary for policy, management, and budget. Per the department: "Interior's political team proudly reflects the diversity of America, with more than 60 percent identifying as BIPOC (Black, Indigenous or people of color) and 70 percent as women."   A message from Facebook:   Agenda Setting MIDTERM MESSAGING HEATS UP — The Democratic super PAC American Bridge 21st Century is out with a $5 million ad buy in battleground states to boost Biden and his domestic agenda as the 2022 midterms kick off, ELENA SCHNEIDER reports. The TV, digital and radio ads will air in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. THE FINE PRINT: POLITICO Pulse's BEN LEONARD looked at some of the under-the-radar provisions in Biden's new Covid-19 plan, including enlisting HHS to invest in "longer-term efforts" on fighting health misinformation; a new effort to enhance research on long Covid; and proposals to address data and surveillance to allow for more nimble future pandemic responses. MEANWHILE … The Biden administration is asking Congress for far less money to continue fighting the Covid-19 pandemic at home than agency leaders had insisted was needed just a few weeks earlier, ALICE MIRANDA OLLSTEIN and ERIN BANCO report. What We're Reading The surgeon general calls on Big Tech to turn over Covid-19 misinformation data (NYT's Davey Alba) Biden says the state of the union is strong. But in Scranton the mood is more dour (Bloomberg's Josh Wingrove) U.S. Set to Give Protected Status to Ukrainians (Bloomberg's Jordan Fabian and Ellen Gilmer) Where's Joe He spoke to Quad Leaders about the war in Ukraine via video call in the Situation Room. Those on the call included Australian Prime Minister SCOTT MORRISON, Indian Prime Minister NARENDRA MODI and Japanese Prime Minister KISHIDA FUMIO. He received the president's daily brief following the call. In the afternoon, the president held a Cabinet meeting in the Cabinet Room. He also signed into law a bill that would ban mandatory arbitration in sexual assault cases and delievered remarks in the East Room. Attorney General MERRICK GARLAND and the Secretary of Labor MARTY WALSH also attended. Where's Kamala She attended the president's Cabinet meeting and bill signing, where she also delivered remarks.   DON'T MISS CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO's new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE.     The Oppo Book Transportation Secretary PETE BUTTIGIEG might be one of the first Cabinet members to have met their partner on Hinge. Buttigieg shared on the LGBTQ&A podcast back in 2019 that he and his husband CHASTEN hit it off on the dating app — namely by spending time talking about Game of Thrones. He said he messaged Chasten first and that when "he responded, I could tell right away he was not like the others." Because nothing fosters romance like a fantasy show about gruesome war and political power struggles set in a fictional approximation of the Dark Ages. POTUS PUZZLER ANSWER WARREN HARDING frequently confided to his friends that the job was beyond him. In one account, historian NICHOLAS MURRAY BUTLER tells of arriving at the White House to find Harding overwhelmed with a stack of letters. "I glanced at them hastily," Murray wrote, "and said, 'Oh, come on, Mr. President, this is ridiculous. Even in my office they don't burden me with letters like these.' I shall never forget Harding's response, for while it was very pathetic, it did him great credit. These were his words: 'I suppose so, but I am not fit for this office and never should have been here.'" Butler also wrote of Harding, "He had a good mind but made little use of it." A CALL OUT — Do you have a better trivia question? Send us your hardest question on the presidents and we may feature it on Wednesdays. Edited by Emily Cadei A message from Facebook: Why Facebook supports updated internet regulations Paige is one of many experts working on privacy at Facebook—to give you more control over your information. Hear from Paige on why Facebook supports updating regulations on the internet's most pressing challenges, including federal privacy legislation.     Follow us on Twitter Alex Thompson @AlexThomp Maxwell Tani @maxwelltani Allie Bice @alliebice   Follow us

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