Zelenskyy: 'I have a need'

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Mar 16, 2022 View in browser   By Ryan Heath Send tips and thoughts to: rheath@politico.com Check out the weekly Global Insider podcast | Follow Ryan on Twitter. Happening Today Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed Congress this morning. "I have a need": Dressed in his trademark khaki T-shirt, Zelenskyy drew direct parallels between American wishes for freedom and Ukraine's own dreams — urging Congress to remember America's experience of Pearl Harbor and 9/11, and telling them "I have a need" is his version of Dr. King's "I have a dream." Zelenskyy reminded members of Congress that his compatriots have been resisting Russian occupation for eight years: "We have not even thought about giving up." Asking if a no-fly zone was "too much to ask," he requested the alternative of missile defense systems. He added: "I am asking that Russians do not receive a single penny they can use to destroy Ukraine." Freedom "is more important than income." "The American people are helping not just Ukraine ... We are fighting for the values of Europe and the world," Zelenskyy said. To Biden directly, the Ukrainian president said: "Being the leader of the world, means being the leader of peace," meaning that regardless of NATO membership or not, Ukraine deserves protection. Zelenskyy's American context: An administration that will not entertain a no-fly zone and a Senate that unanimously declared Russian leader Vladimir Putin a war criminal Tuesday night. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi introduces Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to speak to the U.S. Congress by video at the Capitol in Washington on Wednesday, March 16, 2022. | J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo, pool On the battlefield: Per British intelligence, Russia is losing so many troops it is struggling to secure occupied territory , let alone capture more territory — hence its increasingly desperate efforts to import and conscript troops. Brand Zelenskyy has never been more powerful and perhaps only martyrdom could elevate it further. President Joe Biden likes it this way: It's Zelenskyy's war, not his; as the brave Zelenskyy is easy to rally around and Zelenskyy has legitimacy to negotiate a peace — even if that peace means giving up part of Ukraine or its NATO membership aspirations; precious things that are not Biden's to give away.   STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.     BRUSSELS — A SUMMIT A DAY KEEPS THE OCCUPATION AWAY? Defense ministers are meeting in Brussels today (fears include Russian false flag chemical operations and targeting of any convoy inside Ukraine); Russian drones have also flown into NATO airspace, Ukraine claimed. NATO leaders are confirmed to meet March 23 in Brussels. Biden will attend that summit and another of EU national leaders. COUNCIL OF EUROPE EXPELS RUSSIA: The Strasbourg-based Council of Europe — Europe's leading human rights institution, which included Russia as a member since 1996, expelled Russia Tuesday evening. U.N. — RUSSIA SETS NEW TRAPS: Explained here by International Crisis Group's Richard Gowan. ON THE GROUND IN UKRAINE  Follow POLITICO's Ukraine live blog here. REAL STICKER SHOCK: UNICEF spokesperson James Elder emails about how Ukrainian pediatricians are prioritizing treatment of children — "Green sticker – leave the child for now; yellow – the child needs medical assistance now; red – the child is critical; black sticker – they will not be able to save the child." RUSSIA HAS FAILED TO CAPTURE ANY OF UKRAINE'S 10 BIGGEST CITIES: Three European prime ministers rode a train to Kyiv on Tuesday, proof of Russia's failure to take the city, and to defend "the future of our children who deserve to live in a world free from tyranny," per Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, who was joined by Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala and Janez Jansa of Slovenia. But is it true that a fourth Russian general has been killed in battle, and that 40 percent of Russian units in Ukraine can't function? Reality check: Mariupol is also the last Ukrainian stronghold in the southeast, indeed the only city not occupied between Crimea and Russian-controlled Donbas. Fork in the road: "There will either be a peace deal struck very quickly, within a week or two, with troop withdrawal and everything, or there will be an attempt to scrape together some, say, Syrians for a round two" delaying peace until late April, Zelenskyy aide Oleksiy Arestovich said in a video. LUKASHENKO DODGES AND WEAVES: What good is a puppet regime when it won't be a puppet? Sergei Kuznetsov reports on how Belarus has given its infrastructure but not yet its weapons and military to Russia's war. Given only 3 percent of Belarusians support the war , his fragile regime is clearly worried a Ukraine backlash might cause it to topple. INTERVIEW — EUROPEAN COMMISSION VP MAROŠ ŠEFČOVIČ Maroš Šefčovič is in Washington this week for meetings with Energy Department and State Department officials — developing strategies to wean Europe and the U.S. off Russian and Chinese supplies when it comes to everything from oil and gas to critical minerals. Šefčovič told Global Insider that the EU is serious about common gas purchases, but admitted it will take months rather than weeks to significantly reduce the bloc's reliance on Russian oil and gas (running at $700 million per day, according to the Ukrainian government). "There's definitely no easy solution," he said. Best case scenario — Russian imports cut by two-thirds in 2022: Simply switching off Nord Stream 1, for example, isn't an option for Europeans, even as Spring approaches — because possible replacement gas isn't waiting to be pumped via an alternative pipe. Much of it is still sitting in the ground or ocean, or will take weeks to arrive via ship. Šefčovič warned the EU was only able to keep the lights and heating on this winter — even with Russian gas on tap — via "a lot of swap operations taking place during December and January" with the U.S., Japan and South Korea. But "we are already starting to buy the gas to make sure that our gas storage is filled to 90 percent (of capacity) before the next winter starts," Šefčovič said, adding that "Europeans are ready to take on the big part of the (financial) pain," of doing this during record gas prices. EU message to American companies: "We need more" LNG and "we are ready to work with you." The EU is also working with Azerbaijan, Norway and governments in North Africa. Brussels won't be staying on the sidelines. "We have to show the purchasing power of Europe, to show the financial muscle is there. … We want to have the gas from suppliers that are not attacking the neighbors," Šefčovič said. On Ukraine's EU membership — first stop the bloodshed: A native of Slovakia, Šefčovič warned that it takes years to get a country's legal and economic system integrated with the rest of the EU, but he also sees the war as a 360-degree wake-up call to Central and Eastern European countries who have long been skeptical of Moscow, but also of Brussels. "We should all be on alert, and be very united and very clear" that "we are not talking about Donetsk, we're talking about the complete reset of the peaceful world order," if Putin is allowed to get away with seizing Ukraine, he said. UKRAINE GLOBAL IMPACTS IRAN — IS THE NUCLEAR DEAL WORTH SAVING? Many in Washington have never liked it — and 49 Republican senators are opposed to reentering the deal. Now even some supporters wonder if Russia is inadvertently offering President Biden a face-saving way out of the mess. POLITICO's Nahal Toosi and Stephanie Lichtenstein explore possible next steps. AGRICULTURE — FOOD BEFORE PLANET: Some countries are already prioritizing food security over environmental commitments, including Germany and Spain. Spanish Agriculture Minister Luis Planas said Madrid would scrap a so-called space for nature measure, for example. More from POLITICO's Brussels team here. NUCLEAR — POWER PLANTS GET A LIFE EXTENSION: U.K. is looking to extend life of its Sizewell B plant by 20 years amid an energy crisis. FUNDING UKRAINE IMF AND EU BEGIN REBUILDING DISCUSSIONS: That's the readout Šefčovič, the EU vice president, gave to Global Insider after meeting with IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva. The pair consider extensive rebuilding a key component of getting Ukraine ready for EU membership. WORLD BANK TRUST FUND: The Bank's chief, David Malpass, said Monday afternoon that $3 billion in funding has started to flow from a trust fund created to supply the government of Ukraine, but that the medium-term bill for repairing Ukraine infrastructure will be "tens of billions of dollars." G-7 DEBT OPTIONS: "The G-7 can lead the suspension of Ukraine debt payments. Governments around the world can offer debt relief and implement efforts to protect Ukraine from paying private creditor debt," writes Eric LeCompte. U.N. — AGENCIES UP THEIR GLOBAL UKRAINE RESPONSE: "A sword of Damocles hangs over the global economy, especially in the developing world." So if he can't corral the Security Council into action, U.N. Secretary General António Guterres says he is determined to mobilize the rest of the U.N. system. REFUGEE CASH PROBLEM: Ukrainians are struggling to convert their savings into the currencies of their host countries, amid reports that banks and exchange offices are reluctant to buy hryvnias. The National Bank of Ukraine last week urged Ukrainians fleeing to keep their savings in banks and use cards for foreign payments. UKRAINE PERSPECTIVES "Either we win, or we die" Inside the Ukrainian resistance, by Zoya Sheftalovich. Ukraine's post-Cold War generation documents its hot war. The case for a (limited) no-fly zone: Tom Enders, president of the German Council on Foreign Relations and a former CEO of Airbus, writes in this opinion piece for POLITICO that while a full no-fly zone in Ukraine can't work, one along NATO's eastern border might. Never forget that publicity matters: Marina Ovsyannikova, the Russian journalist who protested the war on Russian live television earlier this week has been released . She still faces 15 years in jail, but publicity likely bought her release. "It's so good that the world is not silent. It makes a difference," Giedrė Žickytė told a Washington audience Tuesday, at the local premiere of her film The Jump, a documentary on Simas Kudirka, a Lithuanian who attempted to defect to the U.S. in 1970, but who was handed back to Russian military. Only publicity saved his life. Armenian lessons: Stephan Pechdimaldji on how history is repeating itself in Ukraine "because the world failed to act in 2020 when Azerbaijan attacked Armenia." What do YOU think of Putin? I asked you if you considered him a dictator now, and the answer was a clear "yes." Robert Kesten put it this way: "For those of us who have worked in that part of the world, Putin was always a dictator. The fear he instilled led to all who could moving their families out of Russia. The only way to see him as other than a dictator is to see him as a tsar." Rethinking the U.S.- EU Trade and Technology Council, in light of Russia's war. Why Russia wins some sympathy in Africa and the Middle East, via The Economist NEW PODCAST EPISODE WITH STEVE KILLELEA  March 16 podcast with Steve Killelea Is global peace worth the $15 trillion a year? That's the claim of Steve Killelea , the philanthropist behind the Institute for Economics and Peace and author of the Global Peace Index. He says $15 trillion is a conservative number "because we can only count what we can count." In this week's episode, he takes us beyond the deadly conflict in Ukraine to the regions we should worry about next, and explores ways of thinking to help us avoid the complacencies that blinded so much of the world to Russia's intentions toward its neighbors. After Ukraine, the next worry: "Sahel is the area we're starting to focus on." Changing drivers of peace: "In the past, peace may have been the domain of the altruistic. In the 21st century, it's in everyone's self interest. The issues we've got today are global in nature, climate change, and increasing biodiversity. Peace is a prerequisite for survival of society as we know it in the 21st century. I think in many ways, that's different from any other epoch in human history." If Killelea were president for a day: "We need more consensus on long-term plans, like 10- to 20-year plans, particularly if we're going to compete with countries like China." Hope: "In many ways democracy's inefficient, we see it all the time. That's because of all these checks and balances, the ability to have competing voices heard. But what happens is because we've got those redundancies, it makes a system which is more resilient. It's more adaptable." GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS ELECTION ROUND-UP  TURKMENISTAN — SURPRISE! PRESIDENT'S SON REPLACES HIM IN LANDSLIDE WIN: The country that claims not to have had a single case of Covid also claims that Serdar Berdymukhamedov captured 73 percent of the vote in a presidential election held Saturday. The State Department doesn't believe that and neither does Global Insider. Still, it's more credible than the 97 percent his father allegedly won in the previous election. HUNGARY — EXACTLY WHERE WE WERE IN 2018: What war effect? The ruling Fidesz party of Viktor Orbán is on 49 percent in POLITICO's poll of polls , just ahead of what is this time a united opposition, on 45 percent. COLOMBIA — LEFT-WING LEAD: After mass (and deadly) protests in 2021 promoted serious policy reforms, it seems Colombians are still fed up. Gustavo Petro, a left-wing former guerrilla who lost the 2018 presidential election to center-right Iván Duque, is the front-runner in a May 29 presidential election, after securing the Historic Pact coalition nomination. His two presidential rivals are Sergio Fajardo, a centrist, and right-winger Federico Gutiérrez: all three candidates are former mayors. Colombians are split down the middle: Forty-five percent have a favorable view of Petro, while 44 percent gave him an unfavorable rating in a February poll. In a tight legislative election Sunday, Colombians split their votes among many parties: No party won more than 16 percent of the vote in either the House of Representatives or Senate. More on the special "peace seats" introduced for this election. SYRIA — STILL WORLD'S BIGGEST DISPLACEMENT CRISIS: UNHCR spokesperson Boris Cheshirkov said via email that "more than 13 million people have either fled the country or are displaced within its borders." In Lebanon, over 90 percent of Syrians "live in extreme poverty" meaning "children are dropping out of school to work. Early marriages are on the rise." Funding failure: "Last year, less than half of the funding required for the Regional Refugee and Resilience Plan to respond to the Syrian refugee crisis was received," per Cheshirkov. CHINA — COMBATING ISLAMOPHOBIA ONE UYGHUR CAMP AT A TIME: A U.N. General Assembly resolution to proclaim March 15 as International Day to Combat Islamophobia was co-sponsored by China. Global Insider concedes that Beijing certainly isn't afraid of putting Muslims into "re-education" camps. h/t Tunku Varadarajan TECH — ALGORITHMIC DESTRUCTION, LITERALLY: In a settlement order, the Federal Trade Commission, which leads civil antitrust enforcement in the U.S., demanded that WW International — formerly known as Weight Watchers — destroy the algorithms and AI models it built using personal information collected through its Kurbo healthy eating app from kids as young as 8 without parental permission, and to destroy the data it illegally harvested. The agency also fined the company $1.5 million. CLIMATE — CHINA ENERGY LOANS DRY UP: For the first time this century, in 2021 China's two most active policy banks, the China Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank of China, reported no new loans to foreign energy projects. See Boston University's China's Global Energy Finance Database. GLOBETROTTERS KLEPTOWATCH  BRITISH CORRAL TAX HAVEN DEPENDENCIES: British overseas territories, which often operate as tax havens, are in talks with London over freezing the assets of Russian oligarchs. MANSION PROTESTS SPREAD: First Biarritz, now London. Eight were arrested for occupying a London mansion owned by members of Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska's family in Belgravia. " THE WEST SHOULD STOP DOING GLOBAL KLEPTOCRATS SO MANY FAVORS": Anne Appelbaum's full written testimony to a U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing called for a "completely new strategy toward Russia, China and the rest of the autocratic world." She insisted that "we must alter our financial system so that we stop kleptocratic elites from abusing it in the first place." BRAIN FOOD 19 BOOKS MARC BENIOFF SAYS SHAPED HIS LEADERSHIP, the list includes titles by Matthew McConaughey, Michael Dell and the Dalai Lama. Here are his 19 must-read books. Thanks to editor John Yearwood, producer Kaitlyn Olvera, Joseph Gedeon and all the POLITICO reporters working across eight countries who are reporting on the Russian war in Ukraine.   DON'T MISS CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO's new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE.       Follow us on Twitter Ryan Heath @PoliticoRyan   Follow us

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