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China's cold shoulder bodes ill for climate fight

Aug 11, 2022 View in browser
 
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By Jordan Wolman and Debra Kahn

THE BIG PICTURE

A chart showing per capita emissions over time.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan last week set off a chain of events that led to China throwing cold water on diplomatic efforts between the world's two largest economies to cut pollution.

It's an ominous sign for global climate politics, if not each country's emissions-cutting efforts.

"Cutting off the Washington-Beijing climate hotline is bad news for the world," said Shuo Li, a senior climate and energy policy officer for Greenpeace East Asia. "It is another example of a global commons issue falling victim to deteriorating geopolitics."

The U.S. and China had continued working together on efforts to address climate change even as relations becamed strained in other areas. The two countries made a surprise last-minute deal at last year's U.N. climate talks to phase down use of coal and come up with new methane policies for the energy, waste and agricultural sectors. American and Chinese researchers have recently been working together on ways to reduce methane from agriculture and oil and gas production .

Beyond their bilateral relationship, high-level cooperation between the two countries helps bring other countries into global agreements. "Peer pressure counts," Li said.

The U.S. has made the biggest contribution to global CO2 levels, but its emissions are declining, while China's are still on the rise. China has a goal of peaking by 2030 and reaching "net zero" emissions by 2060, while the U.S. under President Joe Biden is aiming to reach net zero by 2050.

A chart showing energy transition spending.

China's spending on clean energy in 2021 nearly doubled the U.S. outlay, according to BloombergNEF – though the U.S. comes out ahead in per capita spending. The U.S. also still has much higher per capita emissions.

Both countries are steadily increasing their share of renewable power generation — now at about 28 percent in China and 20 percent in the U.S., according to the International Energy Agency .

Climate change work will continue separately on both sides of the Pacific, including on methane, which is "very much on China's domestic climate agenda," said Joanna Lewis, a professor of science, technology and international affairs at Georgetown University.

But international policy-watchers are hoping tensions will ease before November's U.N. talks in Egypt, where the question of who should pay for damages from climate change will likely be a major focus.

"The hope is really that they will revive this before COP 27," said Melissa Barbanell, director of U.S.-international engagement at the World Resources Institute. "Historically, the U.S. and China coming together again and again has provided the fertile ground for these multinational agreements to come into being. If these two countries act, the biggest emitters, then everyone else feels they should act, too."

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WHAT WE'RE CLICKING

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