Is the U.S. giving Ukraine some weapons secretly?

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Aug 22, 2022 View in browser   By Alexander Ward, Lee Hudson and Paul McLeary Two people familiar with the move said the U.S. included Excalibur precision-guided munitions in the Aug. 19 weapons package, even though the administration didn't publicly announce them. | Evgeniy Maloletka/AP Photo With help from Lawrence Ukenye and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex PROGRAMMING NOTE: National Security Daily won't publish from Monday, Aug. 29, to Friday, Sept. 2. We'll be back on our normal schedule on Tuesday, Sept. 6, after the holiday. Rumors are swirling around Washington that the United States has provided Ukraine with more weapons than the administration has announced publicly. On Friday, a senior Pentagon official said the U.S. had been quietly supplying the Ukrainians with High-speed Anti-Radiation missiles — used for targeting radar systems — for some time. "[W]hen we first announced the initial provision of HARM missiles, the way that we characterized it in the announcement was not specific. We described that we were providing a counter-radar capability," the official said. Two days later, Yahoo! News published a story that argued the recent attacks on Russian targets in Crimea weren't the result of special operations teams carrying explosives, as Ukraine suggests. Instead, the blasts were the result of long-range missile strikes, former U.S. special operators told MICHAEL WEISS and JAMES RUSHTON . But Ukraine doesn't have any missiles with the range to strike Saki air base in Crimea, they noted — at least not with the missiles America and its partners publicly say they transferred. One possibility, per Weiss and Rushton, is that the U.S. has secretly sent the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, to Ukraine. If true — and it's not clear that it is — that would go against what the administration has said publicly. In July, national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN told the Aspen Security Forum that sending those missiles would further provoke Russia and potentially instigate World War III. Okay, so maybe NatSec Daily was overthinking things. But then today, two people familiar with the move said the U.S. included Excalibur precision-guided munitions in the Aug. 19 weapons package, even though the administration didn't publicly announce them. Furthermore, a document sent by the administration Friday to lawmakers, and seen by NatSec Daily, lists what was in the latest $775 million package , noting that what goes to Ukraine isn't "limited" to what's featured in the notification. We admit this is all speculation. No member of the administration confirmed or even hinted that there were secret shipments of weapons to Ukraine. Even if there were, there's little to no chance they'd share a classified decision with us. But if there's anything to the secret-weapons theory, some experts would be supportive of the more-quiet approach. "It's gratifying that the administration appears to be talking less and doing more in terms of the weapons transfers. That's good because it gives the Russians a little bit of uncertainty about what we're doing," said the Center for Strategic and International Studies' TOM KARAKO. The whispers about the U.S. giving Ukraine more than it lets on are only growing, not dying out. We'll stay on it to see if it's part of the D.C. rumor mill or there really is something to it. A message from Lockheed Martin: Lockheed Martin, helping you outpace evolving threats by accelerating digital transformation. At Lockheed Martin digital transformation means simulating wear-and-tear with digital twins, industry-wide experience and next-gen technologies. We do it all to help you prevent and deter emerging threats sooner and faster than ever. Learn more.   The Inbox 9,000 UKRAINIAN TROOPS DEAD: About 9,000 Ukrainian troops have died since Russia's invasion began on Feb. 24, the top Ukrainian military leader said Monday. The figure, shared by Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine VALERIY ZALUZHNYY, is a rare update on Ukraine's casualty count. Our own CHRISTOPHER MILLER made two noteworthy observations. First: "Around 4,400 Ukrainian troops were killed fighting Russian forces over 8 years, between April 2014 and Feb 2022. This is double that in just 6 months," he tweeted. Second : Zaluzhnyy "did not specify whether it refers to all branches of the Ukrainian defense (ie Army, Nat Guard, territorial defense, etc) or only Armed Forces service members." Earlier this month, Undersecretary of Defense for Policy COLIN KAHL said "it's safe to suggest that the Russians have probably taken 70 or 80,000 casualties in less than six months." FSB BLAMES UKRAINE FOR DUGINA KILLING: Russia's FSB accused Ukrainian secret services of killing the daughter of a prominent ultranationalist — a statement that could further inflame tensions. State-run media says that a Ukrainian woman, NATALIA VOVK, traveled to Russia in July with her 12 year-old daughter in order to murder DARYA DUGINA. "On August 21, after a remote-controlled explosion of the Toyota Land Cruiser Prado car Dugina was driving, Vovk and her daughter left through the Pskov Region to Estonia," per the FSB. The FSB provided no direct evidence, Kyiv has denied any involvement and Estonia said it hasn't had a request from Russia for help with the investigation. But if it is true — and that's a very big if — that also means Russia's security service just admitted to letting the murderer escape from the country. ALEXANDER DUGIN , the slain woman's father, is out for blood. "Our hearts are not simply thirsting for revenge or retribution," he wrote in a statement. "We only need our victory [against Ukraine]. My daughter has sacrificed her young life on the altar of victory. So please win!" U.S.-ROK LIVE DRILLS: The U.S. and South Korean military began their largest live military exercises in five years Monday, ending the pause instigated by the diplomatic effort between former President DONALD TRUMP and North Korean leader KIM JONG UN. "The drills known as Ulchi Freedom Shield are expected to involve thousands of military personnel, and will run for two weeks. The US and South Korea have said they are defensive in nature and will include exercises to coordinate forces in response to an invasion from North Korea," Bloomberg News' JEONG-HO LEE reported. "Wars today are totally different from those in the past," South Korean President YOON SUK YEOL said during a Cabinet meeting Monday, noting that the drills will include protecting important facilities like airports and semiconductor factories. North Korea typically responds angrily to these joint exercises, claiming they are a prelude to invasion. Officials in Washington and Seoul are on the lookout for a provocation such as another missile test. IT'S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com, and follow me on Twitter at @alexbward. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @ChristopherJM, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio and @magmill95 — plus our summer interns, @Lawrence_Ukenye and @nicolle_liu. Flashpoints JAPAN MISSILE DEPLOYMENTS?: Japan is looking to counter China by considering the deployment of 1,000 long-range cruise missiles, Reuters reported. The weapons would be deployed in the southern part of the country and capable of reaching China or North Korea. Although Japan's forces are primarily intended for ensuring the country's self-defense, per the country's constitution, regional tensions with China and increasing North Korean missile tests have forced Japan and its allies to shore up their presence in the Pacific. Although officials from Beijing and Tokyo met last week to discuss tensions in the Taiwan Strait, relations between both sides have been fraught as China fired five missiles into Japanese waters earlier this month. FEARS OF INDEPENDENCE DAY ATTACKS: Ukrainian officials are sounding the alarm that there may be Russian missile attacks on the embattled country's 31st independence day on Wednesday, CNN's TIM LISTER and JACK GUY reported. "We must all be aware that this week Russia could try to do something particularly ugly, something particularly vicious," Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY warned. City officials within Kyiv have already banned public events between Monday and Friday. The warnings come as fighting in Ukraine now stretches into its sixth month with more than 5,000 civilian fatalities, according to the UN Human Rights Office. Keystrokes CHINA WARNINGS: Experts now offer dire warnings about incoming Chinese cyberattacks as tensions with Taiwan rise, our friends at Weekly Cybersecurity report. Former Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency Director CHRIS KREBS told attendees at the recent Black Hat conference in Las Vegas that any potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan would prompt cyberattacks on supply chains — which would quickly impact Americans. "Right now, every single company out there should be conducting simulations, scenarios, impact assessments, tabletop exercises at the objective level around what's happening around the Strait of Taiwan," he said. "Based on the conversations I've had with national security officials, they are pretty confident that is going to come to a head, with China and Taiwan." He's not alone in that assessment. "I'm sure they have access to systems," CHRISTOPHER PAINTER , the former State Department cybersecurity coordinator, said in an interview. "They and Russia are the two most capable state actors other than the U.S." The Complex ANDURIL IN UKRAINE: Tech billionaire and Anduril founder PALMER LUCKEY, sans his signature Hawaiian shirt, recently traveled to Ukraine and met with President Zelenskyy, Defense Minister OLEKSII REZNIKOV and ANDRIY YERMAK, head of the country's presidential office, to discuss how Anduril products can continue supporting the war against Russia. Lattice, a counter-drone software system and Ghost, a small drone that can fly continuously for 60 minutes have both been used in Ukraine against Russia, the company confirmed to NSD. During the visit, Luckey and Anduril mission operations team members led on-the-ground training of the company's products with the Ukrainian military. KAMIKAZE DRONES FOR UKRAINE CONTRACT: The Army is set to award AeroVironment for 10 advanced and longer-range Switchblade 600 drones, Defense News' JOE GOULD reported, adding the R&D contract is expected in the next 30 days. "[O]bservers say the Switchblade 600′s anti-armor payload, weighing in at 30 pounds and boasting longer loiter time, would offer an even better tool for finding and striking Russian troops and equipment during Ukraine's expected counteroffensive in southern region of Kherson," Gould added.     On the Hill GANG OF 8 WANTS TRUMP DOCS: The group of congressional leaders charged with reviewing the most sensitive intelligence information has asked the Biden administration for access to the documents seized from Trump's private residence in Florida, our own ANDREW DESIDERIO reported. The inquiry from the so-called "Gang of 8" comes as lawmakers from both parties seek to learn more about the unprecedented investigation into the former president. And it suggests that Congress is unwilling to be a bystander in the political and legal fallout following the FBI's Aug. 8 search of Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Fla. It follows a similar request from Senate Intelligence Committee Chair MARK WARNER (D-Va.) and Vice Chair MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.), who asked the nation's top intelligence official to draw up an assessment of possible national-security risks related to Trump's handling of the sensitive documents. Broadsides PELOSI ACCUSED ADMIN OF ENDANGERING HER: Speaker NANCY PELOSI accused the administration of leaking details of her then-upcoming trip to Taiwan — endangering her in the process. "Any attack on me personally is not associated with the President but with some smaller anonymous voices within the administration who endangered the security of our visit by leaking the trip even before it was determined that we would indeed visit Taiwan," she told The Washington Post on Saturday. Let's not mince words: The speaker just said members of Biden's team put her life in danger –– and she said it on the record. White House officials deny that they leaked details of the trip planning to the press, though. Transitions — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: STEPHANIE PSAKI is joining the National Security Council as a director for global health response in the development and global health directorate, three White House officials told DANIEL LIPPMAN . Psaki most recently was senior adviser on human rights and gender equity in the office of global affairs at the Department of Health and Human Services. (And, yes, she's the former White House press secretary's sister.) — JEFF SOLNET is now deputy assistant secretary for strategic communications at DHS. He most recently was a SVP at Precision Strategies. What to Read — DAVID MONTGOMERY, The Washington Post: Can ANTONY BLINKEN Update Liberal Foreign Policy for a World Gone Mad? — RICHARD McGREGOR, The Atlantic: XI JINPING's Campaign of Secrecy — MARIA SHAGINA, Foreign Policy: Technology Controls Can Strangle Russia—Just Like the Soviet Union Tomorrow Today — The Intelligence National Security Alliance, 9 a.m.: "Coffee and Conversation with DOUG COSSA" — The Atlantic Council, 11 a.m.: "One Year Later: Reflecting on America's Departure from Afghanistan." — The Association of the U.S. Army, 12 p.m.: "Countering Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems"  — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 4 p.m.: "Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China." Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to my editor, Ben Pauker, who says anonymous sources from this newsletter are endangering his late-night fast-food runs. A message from Lockheed Martin: Lockheed Martin, helping you outpace evolving threats by accelerating digital transformation. At Lockheed Martin digital transformation means simulating wear-and-tear with digital twins, industry-wide experience and next-gen technologies. We do it all to help you prevent and deter emerging threats sooner and faster than ever. Learn more.     Follow us on Twitter Alex Ward @alexbward   Follow us

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