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Playbook PM: Negotiators near a new nuclear deal

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Aug 08, 2022 View in browser
 
Playbook PM

By Garrett Ross

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BIDEN'S NEXT BIG WIN? — As President JOE BIDEN continues an historic stretch of legislative success, plus a successful operation that killed an al Qaeda leader, he may be homing in on another major foreign policy feather in his cap: a suddenly resurrected Iran nuclear deal.

Our colleague Stephanie Liechtenstein reports : "Indirect talks between Iran and the U.S. on restoring the 2015 nuclear deal are expected to conclude Monday in Vienna, putting the final draft of an agreement in front of negotiators from Washington and Tehran.

"Western officials told POLITICO on Monday that they had finished negotiating technical questions that had remained open in the final draft text circulated by the European Union foreign policy chief JOSEP BORRELL on July 21. The final draft determines the steps that Iran and the U.S. will have to take to return to full compliance with the original 2015 Iran nuclear deal, officially called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action."

What's next: "On Monday, The EU will officially circulate the final draft document to participants and will ask the U.S. and Iran to agree on it. If there is agreement, foreign ministers are expected to return to Vienna to formally restore the 2015 nuclear accord. 'There is a real chance for an agreement but there are still a number of uncertainties as always,' one senior Western official told POLITICO."

WHERE'S POTUS — The president and first lady JILL BIDEN are in Kentucky today, touring flooding damage with Gov. ANDY BESHEAR and Rep. HAL ROGERS (R-Ky.). Biden will deliver remarks later this afternoon.

President Joe Biden, first lady Jill Biden, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, second right, and Rep. Harold Rogers, R-Ky., third right, view flood damage, Monday, Aug. 8, 2022, in Lost Creek, Ky., where a bus floated into a building.

Biden surveys flooding damage in Kentucky. | Evan Vucci/AP Photo

COMING INTO FOCUS — Meanwhile, as we approach a year since the Biden administration's pullout from Afghanistan, it's becoming clear that the new focus is squarely on China. "Biden and top national security officials speak less about counterterrorism and more about the political, economic and military threats posed by China as well as Russia. There's been a quiet pivot within intelligence agencies, which are moving hundreds of officers to China-focused positions, including some who were previously working on terrorism," AP's Nomaan Merchant reports .

"Intelligence officials stress that the counterterrorism fight is hardly being ignored. Just a week ago it revealed a CIA drone attack killed al-Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahri in Kabul. But days later, China staged large-scale military exercises and threatened to cut off contacts with the U.S. over House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. It underscored the message CIA deputy director David Cohen had delivered at that meeting weeks ago: the agency's top priority is trying to understand and counter Beijing."

— To wit: "China extends threatening military exercises around Taiwan," AP

— As he left the White House this morning , Biden was asked how worried he is about the situation between China and Taiwan. "I'm not worried, but I'm concerned that they're moving as much as they are," Biden said . "But I don't think they're going to do anything more."

On a followup: "Do you think it was a wise move of the Speaker to go to Taiwan — looking at it now?" Biden responded: "That was her decision." (BTW, Pelosi will be on "Morning Joe" on Tuesday to discuss her trip to Taiwan.)

ONE YEAR OUT — Speaking of the one-year mark since U.S. troops left Afghanistan, there's a couple of interesting reads up today looking at the road that led to the decision and where things stand now:

— David Petraeus writes in The Atlantic: "Afghanistan Did Not Have To Turn Out This Way : If we are to sustain our position as the leader of the Western world, we must understand why one of our signature campaigns resulted in such frustration."

— Matthieu Aikins has a deep-dive report for NYT Magazine on "The Taliban's Dangerous Collision Course With the West : After barring girls from high school — and harboring an Al-Qaeda leader — the regime now risks jeopardizing the billions of dollars of global aid that still keeps Afghans alive."

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Good Monday afternoon. Apparently scientists "recorded the shortest day on Earth since the invention of the atomic clock" on June 29 — my birthday! — which came in "1.59 milliseconds short of the normal 24-hour day," per CNN . Worst birthday ever! Get in touch: gross@politico.com .

JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

BREAKING — @kyledcheney : " RUDY GIULIANI has made an emergency motion to postpone his scheduled Fulton County deposition. A hearing on his motion is scheduled for tomorrow afternoon."

CONGRESS

HOW THE CHIPS FELL — The Boston Globe's Tal Kopan has the story on how Commerce Secretary GINA RAIMONDO became "Congress' favorite Cabinet secretary" through her work with members on the CHIPS+ bill. "Raimondo is the rare politician who draws high praise from such disparate sources as conservative Mississippi Senator ROGER WICKER and progressive 'Squad' member and Michigan Representative RASHIDA TLAIB."

Said Wicker: "Gina Raimondo might be the best appointment Joe Biden has made during his time in office."

Said Tlaib: "I've never had a secretary this transparent."

"Top congressional players on the bill touted Raimondo's bipartisan and business sensibilities as a former venture capital executive as crucial in the negotiations on the legislation, which is designed to alleviate the nation's supply chain issues by spurring semiconductor manufacturers to build factories in the United States."

THE ECONOMY

HOW IT'S PLAYING — WaPo's Cleve Wootson Jr. has a good read from Biden's hometown of Scranton, Pa., on how his policies have — and, perhaps more importantly haven't — impacted the eastern Pennsylvania city. "Biden leaned hard into his upbringing in this blue-collar city in his bid for the White House, and his presidential speeches and anecdotes are peppered with references to Scranton," he writes. "But if his election showed how far a self-described 'kid from Scranton' could go, two years of his presidency have exposed the limits of what Biden — maybe any president — can do for a place like this. If Biden's political goal is to help people like his former neighbors, it's not clear he's succeeded, at least not yet."

MEET MR. FIX IT — "Can Global Shipping Be Fixed? One Regulator Will Try," by NYT's Peter Goodman: "The Federal Maritime Commission, traditionally obscure, has been cast by Congress and the administration to help lead the campaign to tame inflation."

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today .

 
 

ALL POLITICS

PRIMARY COLORS — Wisconsin Lt. Gov. MANDELA BARNES is, ostensibly, running in the Democratic Senate primary on Tuesday. But in reality, he's already looking ahead to the general election against Sen. RON JOHNSON (R-Wis.). Barnes has all but cleared the field in his primary and moved on to attacking Johnson. How he got here: "To consolidate the support, Mr. Barnes, who is the state's first Black lieutenant governor and would be its first Black senator if he were to win, ran a tight campaign squarely centered on jobs and rebuilding the middle class," NYT's Jazmine Ulloa reports .

REDISTRICTING READ — In Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana and Ohio, judges have ruled that Republican officials illegally gerrymandered their states' election maps, "or that a trial very likely would conclude that they did," NYT's Michael Wines writes . Generally, the districts would be redrawn and the election would ensue. "But a shift in election law philosophy at the Supreme Court, combined with a new aggressiveness among Republicans who drew the maps, has upended that model for the elections in November. This time, all four states are using the rejected maps, and questions about their legality for future elections will be hashed out in court later."

THE NEW GENERATION — "New Kid on the Block: New York's First Gen-Z Politician Has Fights Ahead," by Calder McHugh for POLITICO Magazine: "From the fashion scene to a protest movement, he was the avatar of a new style of politics. But CHI OSSÉ has a new motif — the boring nuts and bolts of governance."

 

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ABORTION FALLOUT

THE RIPPLE EFFECT — As abortion bans take effect in states across the country, doctors and patients are realizing that it's not strictly abortion medications that are at risk of falling under regulation. Even in situations that have nothing to do with pregnancies, patients are finding a minefield, WaPo's Katie Shepherd and Frances Stead Sellers report . "Medicines that treat conditions from cancer to autoimmune diseases to ulcers can also end a pregnancy or cause birth defects. As a result, doctors and pharmacists in more than a dozen states with strict abortion restrictions must suddenly navigate whether and when to order such drugs because they could be held criminally liable and lose their licenses for prescribing some of them to pregnant women."

THE PANDEMIC

THE VACCINATION PUZZLE — In the effort to get as many people vaccinated as possible, toddlers are lagging far behind the rest of the population. "More than a month after the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended shots for about 17.4 million children ages 6 months through 4 years, about 4% to 5% of them have received a shot, according to the most recent agency data and population estimates from the American Academy of Pediatrics," per WSJ's Jared Hopkins and Jon Kamp . "By contrast, the vaccination rate for children 5 to 11 years reached about 18% a month after the CDC first recommended shots last November. The rate now stands at about 38%."

 

INTRODUCING POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY .

 
 

WAR IN UKRAINE

HARROWING READ — "In My Homeland, the Smell of Death on a Summer Afternoon," by Ukrainian reporter Natalia Yermak for the NYT

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

WHO WAS AL-ZAWAHRI — In announcing the killing of AYMAN AL-ZAWAHRI, Biden described him as "a mastermind" behind a 2000 bombing and someone who was "deeply involved" in the planning of the 9/11 attacks. "But as a matter of historical accuracy, Mr. Biden's words went well beyond how the government and terrorism specialists have described al-Zawahri's record with regard to those two particularly notorious attacks," NYT's Carol Rosenberg and Charlie Savage report from Guantánamo Bay . "Mr. Biden's portrayal of al-Zawahri as a key plotter of the Sept. 11 attacks was echoed in many news accounts about his speech, including in The New York Times. But it surprised counterterrorism experts, as did the characterization of al-Zawahri's role in the Cole bombing."

MEDIAWATCH

AXIOS SELLS TO COX — "Axios Agrees to Sell Itself to Cox Enterprises for $525 Million," by NYT's Benjamin Mullin

PLAYBOOKERS

IN MEMORIAM — "David McCullough, Best-Selling Explorer of America's Past, Dies at 89," by NYT's Daniel Lewis: "David McCullough, who was known to millions as an award-winning, best-selling author and an appealing television host and narrator with a rare gift for recreating the great events and characters of America's past, died on Sunday at home in Hingham, Mass. He was 89. …

"Mr. McCullough won Pulitzer Prizes for two presidential biographies, 'Truman' (1992) and 'John Adams' (2001). He received National Book Awards for 'The Path Between the Seas: The Creation of the Panama Canal' (1977) and 'Mornings on Horseback' (1981), about the young Theodore Roosevelt and his family."

MEDIA MOVE — Carlos Lozada will be an opinion columnist at the NYT. He most recently has been nonfiction book critic at WaPo, where he won a Pulitzer. Announcement

TRANSITIONS — Max Bodach is now operations manager at the Lincoln Network. He previously was a senior associate at Keybridge Communications. … Katie Everett is now press secretary for Rep. Michael Burgess, (R-Texas). She previously was press secretary for Concerned Women of America and is a John Kennedy and Louie Gohmert alum.

ENGAGED — Joe Radosevich, chief of staff to Pennsylvania A.G. Josh Shapiro and an Amy Klobuchar alum, and Brian Krebs , VP of elections and advocacy at flytedesk, got engaged Saturday evening at Crispus Attucks Park. Afterward, the two celebrated with friends at All Souls, the site of their first date. Pic

— Lauren Greenwood, policy analyst for the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission and Vijay Menon , legislative assistant for Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) got engaged on Saturday at Monet's Garden in Giverny, France. The couple met through the organization Faith and Law. Pic … Another pic 

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Nicollette Kirby, an associate in the antitrust group at Cooley, and Patrick Kirby, a senior managing associate in the public policy group at Dentons, welcomed Hayes Maxwell Kirby on Thursday. Pic … Another pic

Corrections: Friday's Playbook PM misstated the name of Rebecca Tallent's new place of employment. It is Anywhere Real Estate. It also misstated the change in the Cook Political Report's rating of Rep. Don Bacon's district. The rating moved from likely Republican to toss-up.

 

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