| | | | |  | | By Zach Montellaro | | | | THE HOME STRETCH — August tends to be a quiet month in D.C., but it is a huge month in primaries across the country. Over a dozen states are holding their primaries in the month of August, finally setting up general election contests in some of the biggest battlegrounds come November. And while August won't completely wrap up the primaries — thank the laggards in the Northeastern United States, who must be enjoying the summer weather and are waiting until September to hold their primaries — here are the big themes to watch in the August primaries. — Trump vs. Pence and the governors: Some of the biggest primaries in August have Trump lined up against his former vice president, Mike Pence, and a set of Republican governors. The first faceoff is in Arizona on Tuesday, where Trump is behind former TV anchor Kari Lake. Pence, along with term-limited Gov. Doug Ducey, have thrown their support behind former board of regents member Karrin Taylor Robson. That created the splitscreen where both Pence and Trump were campaigning in Arizona at the same time, which our own David Siders described as a "varsity-JV scrimmage" at the time. But that's not the only one. Trump will rally for businessman Tim Michels Friday in Wisconsin, where both Pence and former Gov. Scott Walker are behind Rebecca Kleefisch, who served as Walker's second-in-command, in the Aug. 9 primary. — The final impeachment-supporting Republicans take center stage: The last quartet of House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump after the Jan. 6 insurrection will face Republican voters this month. Three of the four are on Tuesday, including Rep. Peter Meijer in Michigan. Meijer was already facing an uphill fight against the Trump-endorsed John Gibbs. But Democrats have been trying to hustle his political expiration date along, by running ads "attacking" (read: boosting) Gibbs in the closing day of the race. The seat was remapped during redistricting to be much more blue, so whichever Republican wins will have a fight in November. But Democrats are betting that Gibbs winning the primary would doom the seat for the GOP in the fall. Joining Meijer on Tuesday are two Washington Staters: Reps. Jaime Herrera Beutler and Dan Newhouse. But they have a different path than Meijer, because Washington has all-party primaries. Aug. 16 brings the headliner in this category: Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.). Plenty of ink has been spilled on her primary against Harriet Hageman, with most signs pointing to Hageman defeating the incumbent. Stay tuned for more as we get closer to the big day. — The Senate battleground is (almost) settled: Most of the primary action for the upper chamber comes on the Republican side, with two states that will help determine control of the Senate on Tuesday: Arizona and Missouri. Arizona will test the strength of the Trump endorsement: Peter Thiel protege Blake Masters has the former president's backing, but businessman Jim Lamon has poured millions of his own money into the race that also includes state Attorney General Mark Brnovich. And D.C. Republicans are hoping for anyone but disgraced former Gov. Eric Greitens for the open seat in Missouri. The party would be heavily favored to hold onto the seat if Greitens doesn't win on Tuesday — and state Attorney General Eric Schmitt has led in recent polls. Later in the month, GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski faces the new, funky all-party primary in Alaska, where the top four candidates will advance to a ranked choice general election. Murkowski is expected to make it through, along with the Trump-backed Kelly Tshibaka, and the new election format there is expected to benefit the incumbent. Democrats, meanwhile, have a much sleepier August as far as the Senate goes. The field in Wisconsin to challenge GOP Sen. Ron Johnson has totally cleared over the last week for Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, and Rep. Val Demings is the presumptive nominee in Florida for her uphill race against Sen. Marco Rubio. — Taking the temperature on abortion policy: Two votes in August will give a major test case of how strongly the issue of abortion policy is weighing on the voters' minds. Kansas voters on Tuesday will cast their vote on the "Value Them Both" amendment, which would codify in the state constitution that there is no right to an abortion there. And at the tail end of the month, the special election in upstate New York in the swingy 19th District presents a clear contrast that will test to see what message is breaking through, POLITICO New York's Bill Mahoney writes . The Democratic nominee Pat Ryan has tooled his campaign toward protecting abortion rights, while Republican Marc Molinaro has been focused on inflation and the economy writ large. Happy Monday! Your old friend Zach Montellaro ( zmontellaro@politico.com ; @ZachMontellaro ) filling in one last time here. Stay tuned for some VERY exciting news about the future of Score, coming real soon. Days until the Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington primaries: 1 Days until the Tennessee primary: 3 Days until the Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin primaries: 8 Days until the general election: 99 Days until the 2022 World Cup: 112 Days until the 2024 election: 827
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| | | KEYSTONE SIREN — "'Alarm bell': Oz's struggles have GOP pitching alternate path to Senate takeover," by POLITICO's Holly Otterbein and Natalie Allison : "The National Republican Senatorial Committee raised concerns about [Mehmet] Oz's lackluster polling and fundraising on at least three separate occasions in recent weeks, multiple sources told POLITICO. On a donor call last week that focused on Senate races throughout the country, NRSC officials discussed Oz's poor performance in polls, including his high unfavorability ratings, said a person on the call." ABORTION AND THE MIDTERMS — "Some Republicans fear party is too extreme on abortion and gay rights," from The Washington Post's Hannah Knowles : "Uncompromising positions and loaded rhetoric on key social issues are escalating concerns within GOP circles that the party is moving too far out of sync with popular opinion, projecting new hostility to gay people and potentially alienating women voters in high-stakes races. … Even among GOP strategists who warn about alienating women, there is uncertainty whether the issue can break through as Republicans blame Democratic leaders for inflation, crime and fears of a recession." — "A New Yorker's Opposition to Abortion Clouds Her House Re-Election Bid," from The New York Times' Jesse McKinley : Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.) "opposes abortion rights, favoring restrictions on using taxpayer funding for the procedure and on late-term abortions. But she has said that she believes that abortion should be allowed under certain circumstances, such as when the life of the mother is at risk." ELECTING THE ELECTION OFFICIALS — "Trump-backed conspiracy theorist makes charge for chief election position in Arizona," by POLITICO's Zach Montellaro : Mark "Finchem, an Arizona state lawmaker, is running with former President Donald Trump's endorsement in Tuesday's Republican primary for secretary of state there. He has support from a coalition of other like-minded candidates running to be election administrators in their own states, which has gained traction in several other close 2020 swing states. And Finchem has a significant edge in a rare public poll of the secretary of state race published Friday." ENDORSEMENT CORNER — "Trump endorses Dixon in Michigan GOP primary," by POLITICO's Zach Montellaro : "Former President Donald Trump on Friday made an eleventh-hour endorsement in the Michigan governor's race, backing conservative commentator Tudor Dixon. Dixon is facing off against four other Republicans on Tuesday for the right to face Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer." — "Donald Trump doing 'tele-rally' for Tudor Dixon on primary eve," by The Detroit News' Craig Mauger . JUST SPECIAL (ELECTION) — "After close primary, Brad Finstad looks to keep GOP control of First District," by Minneapolis Star Tribune's Hunter Woodall : "Running for the open First Congressional District seat, Finstad portrays himself as a southern Minnesota farm kid. The kind of farmer who wakes up knowing things will be broken and have to be fixed. … Whether Finstad will succeed the late GOP Rep. Jim Hagedorn in Congress depends on if he can overcome a challenge in the Aug. 9 special election from former Hormel Foods CEO Jeff Ettinger," the Democratic-Farmer-Labor nominee. FIRST IN SCORE — WAY DOWN BALLOT — Forward Majority, a liberal group that focuses on downballot races, is out with a new memo marking 100 days until the election. The memo argues about the importance of investments in state legislative contests, but also lays out the group's specific targets in three battleground states: Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania. "There is a clear path to a Democratic majority in the Michigan Senate, the Pennsylvania House, and the Arizona House and Senate. Across these chambers, a small sliver of just ~25 seats is the lynchpin of power," the memo reads. DEEP DIVE — "Republican nominee for Maryland attorney general hosted 9/11 conspiracy radio shows," by CNN's Em Steck and Andrew Kaczynski : "Michael Peroutka, a candidate best known for his ties to neo-Confederate organizations, made the remarks on The American View, a radio show he co-hosted, in October 2006 while discussing the fifth anniversary of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attack."
| | | FIRST IN SCORE — UNDER THE RADAR — Could Minnesota be a sleeper governor race? A new internal poll from Republican Scott Jensen, who is facing only trivial opposition in his party's primary next week, has him within the margin of error of Democratic Gov. Tim Walz. The mid-July poll from Cygnal has Walz at 50 percent, to 46 percent for Jensen (500 likely general election voters; July 18-19; +/- 4.3 percentage point MoE). Click through the polling memo for previews of the messaging Republicans will try against Walz, and a separate slide deck from the campaign arguing they are well positioned and have gotten a lot of engagement on social media. (And not for nothing, we noted that Minnesota was a state Democrats identified as sneaky competitive last year .) Walz and Jensen are scheduled for a debate on Wednesday. TUESDAY PREVIEW? — An OH Predictive Insight poll of the statewide races in Arizona has Lake up 51 percent to Robson's 33 percent. In the Senate race, Masters is at 36 percent to Lamon's 21 percent and Brnovich's 12 percent. And the secretary of state race has Finchem at 32 percent to 11 percent for Lane (502 likely primary voters; July 27; +/- 4.37 percentage point MoE), though there is some polling showing closer races.
| | | — Last minute messaging in the Michigan governor's race from Michigan Families United, a pro-Dixon super PAC: The ad says Democrats are "lying about Tudor Dixon because Dixon is blasting their radical agenda." (The DGA is spending against Dixon .) — Quick turn on an ad from Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), who is up with an ad about the chips bill (that's computer, not potato) that recently passed in the Senate. "I worked with Democrats and Republicans to invest in American companies," Warnock says in the ad.
| | | DIGITAL DOLLARS — "The GOP went to war against Google over spam — and may win," by The Washington Post's Isaac Stanley-Becker and Josh Dawsey : "It's unclear what impact Google's spam filters have had on the GOP's fundraising, if any. Nevertheless, Republicans have waged a pressure campaign that has included public Twitter offensives and private discussions with Google chief executive Sundar Pichai. GOP lawmakers have introduced draft legislation in both chambers of Congress."
| | | | INTRODUCING POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY . | | | | | | | | STALLING FOR TIME — "DNC delays presidential early states vote," by POLITICO's Elena Schneider : "The Democratic National Committee told its members Saturday that an August vote for the new slate of early presidential-nominating states will be delayed until after the November midterms. In a memo to its members obtained by POLITICO, the co-chairs of the DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee said applying states are working on 'answering several final but critical questions regarding election administration and feasibility in their states.'" — THE CASE FOR THE SILVER STATE — "Nevada deserves to be first," by The Nevada Independent's Jon Ralston : "The first state to vote matters. It provides a springboard for campaigning in the off-year and then determines campaign schedules in the on-year. It is a crucible that tests the candidates and should subject them to all kinds of voters – urban and rural, white and non-white, rich and poor, educated and uneducated. If that state does not look like America, the candidate may not win in America." A BIT TOO EARLY — "Publisher admits error, says Tim Scott did not OK line in book about presidential bid," by The Post and Courier's Caitlin Byrd : "The publisher of U.S. Sen. Tim Scott's forthcoming political memoir acknowledged over the weekend that it made a mistake when it claimed the South Carolina Republican is preparing a presidential bid this year." CODA — TABLOID HEADLINE OF THE DAY: "Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney's use of campaign funds for ex 'body man' raises ethics questions" — from the New York Post . | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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