The new BBB: Bernie’s Brazil Bill

From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy.

Aug 11, 2022 View in browser   By Alexander Ward "It would be unacceptable for the United States to recognize and work with a government that actually lost the election. It would be a disaster for the people of Brazil, and it would send a horrific message to the entire world about the strength of democracy," Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) said. | Bill Pugliano/Getty Images With help from Lawrence Ukenye Subscribe here | Email Alex FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.) fears for Brazil's democracy as it heads into a raucous presidential election in October, and he wants the U.S. Senate to officially stand on the side of voters — regardless of who they choose. Former President LUIZ INACIO LULA DA SILVA leads President JAIR BOLSONARO by about 7 percentage points , according to the latest polls. A possible defeat has pushed the far-right incumbent to the edge, especially since losing means he could face criminal charges for his shambolic handling of the Covid-19 outbreak in his country. He's called on his supporters to take to the streets and " fight for our freedom ." He's attacked judges , saying they're out to ruin his presidency. He's told foreign diplomats that Brazil's voting machines are hackable . And he's pushed to turn a military parade during September's Independence Day celebrations into a campaign rally for himself. "Only God will remove me" from office, Bolsonaro said a year ago . "I will never be imprisoned." Those and other comments have fueled concerns that Bolsonaro, who has long fetishized Brazil's military dictatorship, would support a military coup to stay in power . Ask him about it, though, and he denies such machinations. "I'm not afraid of losing the election. I'm not worried about it," Bolsonaro said in a Monday interview on the Flow Podcast . But, he added, "if I wanted to pull off a coup I wouldn't say anything." Sanders is no fan of Bolsonaro, and less so that the chances of him scheming to steal the election aren't zero. It's why the Vermont lawmaker plans to introduce a " Sense of the Senate " resolution once Congress returns from the August recess, which would both show senators' support for a free and fair election and call on the U.S. to break ties with Brazil if it's led by an illegitimate regime. "It would be unacceptable for the United States to recognize and work with a government that actually lost the election. It would be a disaster for the people of Brazil, and it would send a horrific message to the entire world about the strength of democracy," Sanders told NatSec Daily in an interview. He underscored that if Bolsonaro, Lula or someone else wins the presidency lawfully, then there's no need for a change in the U.S.-Brazil relationship — it's the will of the people, after all. The senator is sending draft text around to his colleagues. He said that so far he has received support from Democrats for the measure but none from Republicans, though that could change. The fate of Brazil's election is an issue Sanders has engaged with deeply over the last few weeks. He met in July with a delegation of civil society leaders who pressed him on the need to support Brazil's democracy. IMAN MUSA JADALLAH , advocacy director for the Washington Brazil Office, the human rights group that organized the visit, said Sanders didn't commit to any specific actions but would "do what he can to express solidarity" with Brazilians. The good news, experts say, is that Brazil's democratic institutions are quite strong. Officials and citizens are speaking out against Bolsonaro's wildest claims and pre-bunking his possible arguments of election fraud. "They're trying to get ahead of that," said ROBERTA BRAGA, director of counter disinformation strategies at Equis. She also expects some members of Brazil's military to follow Bolsonaro's lead, but the armed forces as a whole won't take part in any coup attempt. The biggest likeliest threat is that "we could see popular mobilization like we saw in the U.S. akin to Jan. 6," Braga said. NatSec Daily asked Sanders why he's doing a "Sense of the Senate," a non-binding resolution, when he could put forward a bill with more teeth. "This is a start," he replied. "It's important for the people of Brazil to know we're on their side, on the side of democracy and we can go further." The Inbox PRISONER SWAP TALKS: Russia confirmed for the first time that Washington and Moscow are in talks to swap prisoners, The Washington Post's ROBYN DIXON reported. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson IVAN NECHAYEV said the negotiations were happening in the channel started by President JOE BIDEN and Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN in their Geneva summit last year. "Instructions were given to authorized structures to carry out negotiations," he told journalists in Moscow. "They are being conducted by competent authorities." That might raise expectations that American hostages BRITTNEY GRINER and PAUL WHELAN will eventually come home, possibly with Russian arms dealer VIKTOR BOUT headed the other direction. 'GRADUALLY SQUEEZE THEM OUT': Ukrainian troops are staging outside of Kherson in hopes of retaking the city and boosting Kyiv's chances of preventing Russia's seizure of the south. "Russia has responded by strengthening its presence in and around Kherson, potentially readying for large-scale battles," The Wall Street Journal's DANIEL MICHAELS and JAMES MARSON reported. "Around Kherson, Ukraine won't engage Russian forces head-on, said MYKHAILO PODOLYAK, a Ukrainian presidential adviser. Instead, Kyiv's forces are chipping away at Russian might in the region, he said, inflicting 'a thousand bee stings.'" "You grind down and destroy enemy personnel and vehicles," Podolyak told the WSJ. "You gradually squeeze them out." That's easier said than done, per the WSJ: "Military analysts say that to eject troops from an established position, such as Russia's in Kherson, attackers generally need at least three times as many forces as the defenders, and the ratio can reach five-to-one for urban warfare." However, Russia is struggling to replenish troops in Ukraine, per The Associated Press , which could make Kyiv's ask just a little easier. U.S. AND SYRIA IN TALKS OVER TICE: The Biden administration has been in direct contact with Syrian officials over the return of AUSTIN TICE , who was abducted at a checkpoint southwest of Damascus on Aug. 12, 2012. The last face-to-face U.S.-Syria interaction was in January, McClatchy's MICHAEL WILNER reported. Biden informed Tice's parents about the push to bring their son home during a May 2 meeting in the Oval Office. "The president described to the family a burgeoning Syria policy he thought could provide an opening for Assad to engage on Tice, noting recent U.S. sanctions relief on entities in northern Syria. But nothing had led to a breakthrough so far," Wilner wrote. "I just don't know what else to do," Biden said, leaning back in his chair. "In the weeks after the Tices' Oval Office meeting, Syrian and U.S. officials exchanged phone calls, letters and emails, and the Syrians put questions to the Americans on what talks would look like," per Wilner. In 2016, the U.S. government said it had "high confidence" that Tice was alive. SWEDEN'S AMB ON NATO SIGNING CEREMONY: NatSec Daily reported Wednesday about what it was like being at the White House signing ceremony of the Senate's ratification of Sweden and Finland's accession to NATO . We quoted Finnish Ambassador to the U.S. MIKKO HAUTALA throughout and asked his Swedish counterpart, KARIN OLOFSDOTTER to comment, but we never heard back from her. But there was a good reason: She was traveling back to Sweden and didn't see our request in time. Once she saw our request, she emailed us her thoughts on being at the historic event. "I personally was very proud and moved by the great support from the administration and the Senate as well as the House," she wrote. "I really believe our Nato membership besides us being allied in the organisation also strengthens the bilateral relationship between Sweden and the United States. Russia's brutal unprovoked attack on a sovereign country in our neighbourhood changed everything." IT'S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com , and follow me on Twitter at @alexbward . While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi , @woodruffbets , @politicoryan , @PhelimKine , @ChristopherJM , @BryanDBender , @laraseligman , @connorobrienNH , @paulmcleary , @leehudson , @AndrewDesiderio and @magmill95 — plus our summer interns, @Lawrence_Ukenye and @nicolle_liu . A message from Lockheed Martin: LMXT: Competitive capabilities for America's next strategic tanker. Lockheed Martin and Airbus announced the LMXT's boom will be manufactured in Arkansas, reinforcing that the LMXT will be built in America for Americans by Americans. Learn more.   Flashpoints CHINA'S REPS DROWNING OUT TAIWAN'S: Our friends at the China Watcher newsletter have a smart story about how China's diplomats in Washington, D.C. are outmuscling Taiwan's representatives in the U.S. "The Chinese embassy helmed by Ambassador QIN GANG went loud and hard in a zone-flooding media blitz that included multiple press briefings, a Washington Post op-ed, a CNN appearance and a social media output mode set to 11," CW reported. "The Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office (TECRO) under Taiwan's de facto Ambassador BI-KHIM HSIAO trod more lightly — mostly amplifying statements out of Taipei punctuated by Hsiao's doubleheader PBS and CBS TV interviews last week ." "That minimalist engagement suggests the Taiwan Foreign Ministry's risk aversion to high profile diplomacy may have hamstrung Hsiao at a critical juncture in the decades-long U.S.-China standoff on Taiwan's status," CW continued. That gives Beijing an advantage as it looks to saturate the airwaves with its messaging at the expense of what Taiwanese officials want to say. Keystrokes FTC PRIVACY CONCERNS: The Federal Trade Commission will begin looking into new privacy rules to protect consumer data from harmful commercial surveillance, the agency announced Thursday. "Our goal today is to begin building a robust public record to inform whether the FTC should issue rules to address commercial surveillance and data security practices and what those rules should potentially look like," wrote FTC chair LINA M. KHAN in a statement. The agency is already seeking comment about a broad range of concerns, including worries that some surveillance-based services may be addictive to children and worsen mental health. The efforts come as lawmakers have advocated for more federal efforts to regulate privacy, including the American Privacy and Data Protection Act introduced by the House in June. The Complex LASERS AND WEDGETAILS: Our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) have the hot goss on two acquisitions items. First up: lasers! The Army will deliver the first batch of 50-kilowatt lasers to Ft. Sill, Okla., by the end of September, Lt. Gen. NEIL THURGOOD, director of the Rapid Capabilities and Critical Technologies Office, said Wednesday. The high-energy lasers, made by Raytheon Technologies, will be used by Stryker combat vehicle units as part of an air defense battery, Thurgood said at the Space and Missile Defense Symposium. A Stryker equipped with a 50-kilowatt laser struck down multiple 60mm mortar rounds at White Sands Missile Range, the company announced in May . The weapon system is called the Directed Energy Maneuver-Short Range Air Defense System. Second: aircraft! The Air Force is seeking reprogramming authority to give the service flexibility to award a prototype contract to Boeing for E-7 Wedgetails in case a delay in passage of a full-year budget prevents a contract award in fiscal 2023, an official said Wednesday. The program office expects to reach a deal with Boeing in February at the earliest. The Air Force announced in April that the E-7 is the only aircraft that can meet the service's requirements and timeline to replace the aging E-3 airborne early-warning aircraft. The service is proposing to retire 15 of 31 E-3 aircraft in fiscal 2023. On the Hill ANOTHER ASIA CODEL: SEN. EDWARD MARKEY (D-Mass.), who leads the Senate Foreign Relations Committee's Asia panel, heads a congressional delegation that left for Asia today. He's joined by lawmakers looking to promote democracy and human rights, his office announced this morning. Markey is traveling with House members, including JOHN GARAMENDI (D-Calif.), DON BEYER (D-Va.), ALAN LOWENTHAL (D-Calif.) and AUMUA COLEMAN RADEWAGEN, Republican of American Samoa. The trip comes amid heightened tension in the region following Speaker NANCY PELOSI's high-profile visit to Taiwan that ruptured U.S.-China relations but garnered bipartisan support from lawmakers who supported the speaker's right to travel in spite of threats from Beijing. A schedule has yet to be released, but lawmakers plan to discuss climate change and nuclear non-proliferation with elected officials, national security experts and tech companies. Broadsides NO VISA FOR IRAN'S PRESIDENT: The leaders of United Against Nuclear Iran don't want the U.S. to grant Iranian President EBRAHIM RAISI a visa to attend the U.N. General Assembly next month. "The Biden administration should reject his request given Mr. Raisi's bloodstained record and Iran's continuing threats against U.S. citizens," former Sen. JOE LIEBERMAN and ex-U.S. official MARK WALLACE wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed , citing the recent unveiling of charges against an Iranian who plotted to kill former national security adviser JOHN BOLTON. "An Iranian attack against Americans isn't merely state sponsorship of terrorism. It should be treated as an act of war. Tehran should be made to understand that it is risking a decisive U.S. military response." "The first step—and the least the U.S. should do—is exercise its sovereign right to deny an entry visa to Mr. Raisi. Regime apologists will claim that Washington is obligated to issue visas to heads of government who are invited to speak at the U.N. But Mr. Raisi's attempts to assassinate Americans on U.S. soil render such obligations void," they continued.     What to Read — LARA SELIGMAN, POLITICO Magazine: " The Afghanistan Deal that Never Happened " — Sen. ROGER WICKER, National Review: " A National-Defense Renaissance " — MICHAEL O'HANLON, Brookings Institution: " Can China Take Taiwan? Why No One Really Knows " Tomorrow Today — Foreign Policy Research Institute, 12 p.m.: "Speaker Pelosi's Taiwan Trip: What It Meant and What Comes Next?" Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to my editor, John Yearwood, who relishes grinding down and destroying your host. A message from Lockheed Martin: LMXT: Competitive capabilities for America's next strategic tanker. The LMXT aircraft delivers proven capabilities for the U.S. Air Force's increasing aerial refueling missions. One of the LMXT's discriminating capabilities is its refueling system, which includes a fly-by-wire aerial refueling boom. Learn more.     Follow us on Twitter Alex Ward @alexbward   Follow us

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